As Telluride wraps up, let’s review the Oscar chances of some of the films exiting the festival.
Belfast
After The Power of the Dog, Belfast is the Telluride film that I believe has the best chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination. Kenneth Branagh’s newest is a sentimental autobiographical portrait of the Troubles and the director’s burgeoning love of cinema. The central actor Jude Hill who plays the young Buddy has probably been the most acclaimed of the cast, yet his status as a child actor will probably keep him from being nominated. Caitrona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, and Ciaran Hinds have all received positive notices but I think Balfe will be the one to rise above the pack and get a nomination. As it is a period film shot in mostly black and white so it’ll probably receive some tech nominations as well.
The film does seem a little maudlin and oversentimental but I see it having a good chance of getting into the 10 film lineup at this point.
Predicted nominations: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress – Caitrona Balfe, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design
Maybes: Best Director, Best Supporting Actress – Judi Dench, Best Editing, Best Costume Design
C’mon C’mon
Mike Mills has also come out with a black and white film centering around a child, yet his film couldn’t be more different. According to reviews, Joaquin Phoenix gives a subtle and poignant performance as a radio journalist talking to his nephew about the future. The film will probably be too indie for a Best Picture nomination and while I don’t think either is going to happen, both Phoenix and Mills could possibly receive nominations for their work on the film.
Predicted Nominations: N/A
Maybes: Best Actor – Joaquin Phoenix, Best Original Screenplay
Cyrano
This film coming from the director of Darkest Hour and Atonement, both Best Picture nominees in their respective years. However, Cyrano will likely not be his next. While the film has received mostly positive reviews, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for it. Peter Dinklage seems to be the obvious standout from the cast and the costume and production design of this musical have also been acclaimed. However, I really don’t see this getting near the Oscars outside of the below-the-line categories.
Predicted Nominations: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design
Maybes: Best Actor – Peter Dinklage, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Like Cyrano, this Benedict Cumberbatch-led film is also a period piece that I don’t think will get good enough reviews to get into Best Picture. However, I can see it possibly getting a runner-up spot at the TIFF People’s Choice Awards and if it does watch out as it may be a major crowdpleaser that get into the slate based on audience support. However, until Toronto happens, I think this is restricted to a Costume Design nod and maybe a Production Design nomination as well.
Predicted Nominations: Best Costume Design
Maybes: Best Production Design
The Hand of God
This is a film that I was predicting in Best Picture just a few days prior to its premiere and while I think that it’s still in the top 15 in that category, the film’s 77% Rotten Tomatoes and 76 Metascore are not as great as I was expecting them to be. Still, the film has some very passionate supporters and the criticisms of it seem like aspects that might actually make it more accessible to AMPAS. Anyway, I definitely do think its essentially locked for an International Feature nod.
Predicted Nominations: Best International Feature
Maybes: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography
A Hero
A Hero might be one of the biggest question marks for me. It still has a 100% Rotten Tomatoes meaning that everybody believes it to be a good film but it doesn’t seem to be eliciting the kind of passion from critics that I hoped it would. I definitely still think it will be nominated in International Feature but my hopes for it to be nominated in any above-the-line categories like Original Screenplay, Director, or even Picture have to be put on hold until we know how strong Amazon’s campaign for it will be.
Predicted Nominations: Best International Feature
Maybes: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay
King Richard
Until, this film premiered I was very worried about Will Smith’s chances in Best Actor. Films like Concussion and Collateral Beauty were visibly made with an Oscar nomination in mind yet both were not very well-received and ended up forgotten by nomination morning. I hoped that King Richard would not end up in the same boat and if early reactions are any indication the film has actually exceeded the expectations of many. According to reviews, Will Smith has delivered one of the best performances of his career (‘Moonlight’ director Barry Jenkins said Smith’s performance is up there with his work in ‘Ali’) in a feel-good crowdpleaser that celebrates Black excellence. Some even have it penciled in for a Best Picture nod.
Predicted Nominations: Best Actor – Will Smith
Maybes: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress – Aunjanue Ellis, Best Original Screenplay
The Lost Daughter
This Maggie Gylenhaal-directed feature has a fantastic cast (Olivia Colman, Jessie Buckley, Dakota Johnson, and Peter Sarsgaard) and has been received very positively so far so why hasn’t it garnered much buzz? Well, it is slightly edgier drama and one of the many films on Netflix’s slate this year. However, if the reviews for this film continue to be stellar then I do see Netflix making a push for the film for its actresses and for a screenplay nomination. Adapted Screenplay seems like the film’s best chance as the film might end up being too small in the actress categories if Netflix doesn’t promote it enough.
Predicted Nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay
Maybes: Best Actress – Olivia Colman, Best Supporting Actress – Jessie Buckley
The Power of the Dog
As I mentioned in my latest post, The Power of the Dog is easily this season’s closest thing to a surefire lock in the Best Picture nomination race. It’s received fantastic reviews and I would be surprised if it doesn’t rack up any Oscar wins in March. Unless something undeniable emerges later in the season, Jane Campion will likely become the third female Best Director winner. Maybe I’m getting really ahead of myself but I’m just happy that there is a film that I can have confidence in as there are a couple that I had a lot of expectations for and did not really meet those, admittedly high expectations review-wise (Dune, Last Night in Soho, and The Hand of God are some major examples).
As I have said before, the reviews for this film are glowing. Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, and Kodi Smit-McPhee seem to be the standouts and Plemons might get in as well.
Predicted Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor – Benedict Cumberbatch, Best Supporting Actress – Kirsten Dunst, Best Supporting Actor – Kodi Smit-McPhee, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Original Score
Maybes: Best Supporting Actor – Jesse Plemons, Best Editing, Best Costume Design
Spencer
Another film with a seemingly-locked nomination, Spencer’s central performance has been lauded as the best of Kristen Stewart’s career. This Pablo Larrain film, even though it is supposed to be more accessible than the director’s previously-nominated feature ‘Jackie’, doesn’t seem like it will be accessible enough for a Best Picture nomination. It seems to be particularly alienating some British critics who may not be reacting well to the film’s depiction of the royal family (if anything that makes me more intrigued to watch it).
Predicted Nominations: Best Actress – Kristen Stewart, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score, Best Production Design
Maybes: Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Jane Campion’s newest feature premiered at the Venice Film Festival and has garnered fantastic reactions from critics. At the time of publication, it as at an 89 on Metacritic and at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kevin Maher of The Times wrote that the film is “the movie to beat for the festival’s prestigious Golden Lion award, and indeed the frontrunner at next year’s Oscars.” While the film does seem accessible enough to be a top 3 contender, I don’t think it’s the kind of film that will have the widespread support needed for a win. Anyway, I am even more excited for this film to release to Netflix in mid-November.
The actors have been especially praised and the standouts seem to be Benedict Cumberbatch, the relative newcomer Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Kirsten Dunst. I am predicting nominations for all three and Cumberbatch may even be able to compete for a win. The ‘Doctor Strange’ actor’s performance has been called both “earth-shattering” and a “career-best”.
Right now, I can see it getting a Best Picture nomination, a Best Director nod for Campion, a Best Actor nomination for Cumberbatch, a Supporting Actress nod for Dunst, a Supporting Actor nod for Kodi Smit-McPhee (Jesse Plemons’ performance has also been well-received I just doubt both of them will get in), an Adapted Screenplay nod for Campion, a Cinematography nod for Ari Wagner, and a Original Score nod for Jonny Greenwood.
These reviews are the first real clue of what the Best Picture lineup will look like come next year and The Power of the Dog will likely be near the top of that pack.
The Telluride Film Festival starts tomorrow and per the usual, the festival’s lineup was released one day before the films started screening.
Telluride has a great track record and seven of the last ten Best Picture winners (the exceptions being 12 Years a Slave, Argo, and Green Book) screened at Telluride.
Jane Campion, Riz Ahmed, and Peter Dinklage are receiving Silver Medallions this year. In the last 5 years Casey Affleck, Alfonso Cuaron, Renee Zellweger, Chloe Zhao, and Anthony Hopkins all received Silver Medallions at Telluride and won Oscars a few months later so watch out for these three (especially Campion).
Here’s the Telluride 2021 lineup:
THE AUTOMAT (d. Lisa Hurwitz, U.S., 2021) In person: Lisa Hurwitz
BECOMING COUSTEAU (d. Liz Garbus, U.S., 2021) In person: Liz Garbus
BELFAST (d. Kenneth Branagh, U.K., 2021) In person: Kenneth Branagh, Jamie Dornan
BERGMAN ISLAND (d. Mia Hansen-Løve, France/Germany/Sweden, 2021) In person: Mia Hansen-Løve
BITTERBRUSH (d. Emelie Mahdavian, U.S., 2021) In person: Emelie Mahdavian, Colie Moline
C’MON C’MON (d. Mike Mills, U.S., 2021) In person: Mike Mills, Gaby Hoffman, Molly Webster
CITIZEN ASHE (d. Sam Pollard, Rex Miller, U.S./U.K., 2021) In person: Sam Pollard, Rex Miller
COW (d. Andrea Arnold, U.K., 2021) In person: Andrea Arnold
CYRANO (d. Joe Wright, U.K., 2021) In person: Joe Wright, Peter Dinklage, Haley Bennett, Erica Schmidt, Bryce Dessner, Aaron Dessner
THE DUKE (d. Roger Michell, U.K., 2021) In person: Roger Michell, Helen Mirren
THE ELECTRICAL LIFE OF LOUIS WAIN (d. Will Sharpe, U.K., 2021) In person: Will Sharpe, Benedict Cumberbatch
ENCOUNTER (d. Michael Pearce, U.S., 2021) In person: Michael Pearce
FAUCI (d. John Hoffman, Janet Tobias, U.S., 2021) In person: John Hoffman, Janet Tobias, Steven Wakefield, Peter Staley
FLEE (d. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Denmark, 2021) In person: Jonas Poher Rasmussen
HALLELUJAH: LEONARD COHEN, A JOURNEY, A SONG (d. Dayna Goldfine, Dan Geller, U.S., 2021) In person: Dan Geller, Dayna Goldfine, Sharon Robinson,
THE HAND OF GOD (d. Paolo Sorrentino, Italy, 2021) In person: Paolo Sorrentino, Teresa Saponangelo, Luisa Ranieri, Filippo Scotti
A HERO (d. Asghar Farhadi, Iran/France, 2021) In person: Asghar Farhadi
JULIA (d. Julie Cohen, Betsy West, U.S., 2021) In person: Julie Cohen, Betsy West
KING RICHARD (d. Reinaldo Marcus Green, U.S., 2021) In person: Reinaldo Marcus Green
THE LOST DAUGHTER (d. Maggie Gyllenhaal, Greece/U.S./U.K./Israel, 2021) In person: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Dakota Johnson, Peter Sarsgaard, Ed Harris
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (d. Dean Fleischer-Camp, Jenny Slate, U.S, 2021) In person: Dean Fleischer-Camp, Jenny Slate
MUHAMMAD ALI (d. Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon, U.S., 2021) In person: Sarah Burns, David McMahon, Rasheda Ali, Michael Bentt
NUCLEAR FAMILY (d. Ry Russo-Young, U.S., 2021) In person: Ry Russo-Young, Sandra Russo, Robin Young
PETITE MAMAN (d. Céline Sciamma, France, 2021) In person: Céline Sciamma
THE POWER OF THE DOG (d. Jane Campion, Australia/New Zealand, 2021) In person: Jane Campion, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons
PROCESSION (d. Robert Greene, U.S., 2021) In person: Robert Greene, Dan Laurine, Ed Gavagan, Mike Foreman, Michael Sandridge, Joe Eldred, Tom Viviano, Terrick Trobough
THE REAL CHARLIE CHAPLIN (d. James Spinney, Peter Middleton, U.S., 2021) In person: James Spinney, Peter Middleton
RED ROCKET (d. Sean Baker, U.S., 2021) In person: Sean Baker, Simon Rex, Bree Elrod, Ethan Darbone, Brittney Rodriguez, Suzanna Son
THE RESCUE (d. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, U.S./U.K., 2021) In person: Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Mitch Torrel, Thanet Natisri
RIVER (d. Jennifer Peedom, Australia, 2021)
THE SAME STORM (d. Peter Hedges, U.S., 2021) In person: Peter Hedges, Noma Dumezweni, Mary-Louise Parker
SPEER GOES TO HOLLYWOOD (d. Vanessa Lapa, Israel/Austria/Germany, 2021) In person: Vanessa Lapa
SPENCER (d. Pablo Larraín, U.K./Germany/Chile, 2021) In person: Pablo Larraín, Kristen Stewart
TORN (d. Max Lowe, U.S., 2021) In person: Max Lowe, Conrad Anker, Jennifer Lowe-Anker, Isaac Lowe-Anker, Sam Lowe-Anker
UNCLENCHING THE FISTS (d. Kira Kovalenko, Russia, 2021) In person: Kira Kovalenko
THE VELVET UNDERGROUND (d. Todd Haynes, U.S., 2021) In person: Todd Haynes, Ed Lachman
Film festival season is just about to start up. Venice starts on September 1st, Telluride on the 2nd, Toronto on the 9th, and New York on the 24th. The majority of the eventual Best Picture nominees will most likely be screened this month and once we get around to October we’ll have an exponentially clearer idea of what the race will look like. However, we do know a few things. For one, The Power of the Dog is going to every one of those festivals, strongly expressing the confidence Netflix has in the film. While I don’t think the film will end up winning Picture (it probably will get close though), Campion’s film is the film that I am most confident will receive a nomination. I could see any other film here not getting nominated come 2022.
In other news, the trailer for The Hand of God released and I instantly added it to my predictions as it looks fantastic. If it performs well at the Venice Film Festival and/or wins an award there, I will probably have it as a top 6 contender. The trailer for Spencer was also released and Kristen Stewart dispelled a lot of people’s doubts about her being able to play Princess Diana. In Actress, there are two extremely baity biopic performances: Stewart at Princess Diana and Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball. If any one of these actresses’ respective films receive at least a 75 Metascore, that film’s central performance will probably end up winning Best Actress.
Also I just wanted to address Belfast. Branagh hasn’t made many films that are good. Of the last eight films that he has directed, only one had a Green Metascore (Cinderella at 67) and two of them were in the red (Artemis Fowl at 31 and Love Labour’s Lost at 35). That doesn’t mean to say that a director that hasn’t received great reviews in almost 30 years can’t deliver a great film, it just means that I am extremely skeptical about the Oscar chances of that director’s projects. Yes, it’s going to be in Black and White, Yes, Branagh himself wrote the screenplay and the film is semi-autobiographical, and most importantly, Yes, Focus seems to have some confidence in it, but until reviews are released I am going to conclude that the film will end up being another Hillbilly Elegy.
Ok, now that we’re done with that, here are the predictions:
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
House of Gucci (MGM)
Soggy Bottom (MGM)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Hand of God (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)
Could Jump In:
Being the Ricardos (Amazon)
Belfast (Focus)
The Last Duel (20th Century)
Spencer (NEON)
A Hero (Amazon)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)
Last Night in Soho (Focus)
Tick, tick…Boom! (Netflix)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
The Humans (A24)
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)
CODA (Apple+)
Eternals (Disney/Marvel)
The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.)
In the Heights (Warner Bros.)
The Worst Person in the World (NEON)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
Mass (Bleecker Street)
Finch (Apple+)
Swan Song (Apple+)
Passing (Netflix)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)
Red Rocket (A24)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Denis Villenueve – Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God
Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci or The Last Duel, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Pablo Larrain – Spencer
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Will Smith – King Richard
Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Timothee Chalamet – Dune, Adam Driver – Annette, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Nicolas Cage – Pig
BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Halle Berry – Bruised Emilia Jones – CODA, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sandra Bullock – The Unforgivable
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga – Passing
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Judi Dench – Belfast
Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans
Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (or The Humans)
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jonah Hill – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
The French Dispatch
The Hand of God
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Belfast, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, A Hero, Mass, Spencer
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Humans
Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Last Duel, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, West Side Story
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Belle
Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank, Apollo 10 ½, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Being the Ricardos
Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Could Jump In: Belfast, The Hand of God, The French Dispatch, Soggy Bottom, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Cyrano
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Being the Ricardos
Spencer
Cyrano
House of Gucci
Respect
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Cruella, Last Night in Soho, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Belfast, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
BEST EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Could Jump In: Soggy Bottom, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The French Dispatch, Belfast
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Cyrano
Cruella
The Suicide Squad
Could Jump In: Spencer, Respect, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Belfast, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Last Night in Soho
BEST SOUND
Dune
Eternals
West Side Story
Top Gun: Maverick
No Time to Die
Could Jump In: Tick, Tick…Boom, In the Heights, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Cyrano, A Quiet Place Part II
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs Kong
The Suicide Squad
Could Jump In: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: Spencer, Luca, Eternals, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Top Gun: Maverick
Annette
Respect
Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Hand of God
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
The Worst Person in the World
Flee
Could Jump In: The Mad Women’s Ball, Compartment No. 6, Petrov’s Flu, Petite Maman, Drive My Car
The New York Film Festival has released their Opening Night and Centerpiece films. These films usually have a decent track record at the Oscars as 3 of the last 5 Centerpiece picks went on to becoming Best Picture nominees. This year The Power of the Dog is the pick and as that film has also been confirmed for both Venice and Toronto as well, I think it probably has the best chance for a Best Picture nomination out of any other film this year so far. It and Nightmare Alley seem like the only films that could be declared locks at this point. The New York Film Festival’s Opening Night pick has reached the Best Picture slate twice in the last five years and while that might not seem like a great track record, two of their picks (13th and Lovers Rock) were ineligible for a BP nomination. The Tragedy of Macbeth is this year’s Opening Night film and if it is well-received I think it could very well be a lock.
Both The French Dispatch and A Hero went to Cannes and both received good-to-great reviews from critics. I would feel more confident about their chances if they had received universal acclaim but I still think that they can get in if they are campaigned well. If A Hero is campaigned well I think it is a film that will play well with both critics and audiences and I might even be more confident in its chances than I am for The French Dispatch. The French Dispatch is an anthology film and, as a result, reviews have said that it does not have the same emotional resonance of Wes Anderson’s other work. However, I think the technical aspects of the film will garner enough passion and will probably help it carve out spot in the Best Picture slate. Searchlight is also probably the best studio when it comes to campaigning their films for Oscar attention and I have confidence in them and in Anderson’s good will in the industry.
Anyway, here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Soggy Bottom (MGM)
House of Gucci (MGM)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)
A Hero (Amazon)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Could Jump In:
Last Night in Soho (Focus)
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, might be 2022)
The Hand of God (Netflix)
The Last Duel (20th Century)
Tick, Tick…Boom! (Netflix)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)
A Journal for Jordan (Sony)
Belfast (Focus)
In the Heights (Warner Bros.)
The Humans (A24)
CODA (Apple+)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
The Card Counter (Focus)
Eternals (Disney/Marvel)
Flee (Neon)
Respect (MGM)
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Blue Bayou (Focus)
Red Rocket (A24)
Passing (Netflix)
Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)
Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)
Cyrano (MGM)
Mass (Bleecker Street)
Spencer (Neon)
The Green Knight (A24)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Denis Villenueve – Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Asghar Farhadi – A Hero
Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, Sian Heder – CODA
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Adam Driver – House of Gucci
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: Will Smith – King Richard, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – Annette, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Antonio Banderas – Official Competition
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year, she’s in), Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Haley Bennett – Cyrano, Tilda Swinton – Memoria, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – The Humans
Jesse Plemmons – The Power of the Dog
Al Pacino – House of Gucci
Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Bradley Whiford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)
Ruth Negga – Passing
Ann Dowd – Mass
Judi Dench – Belfast
Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Audra McDonald – Respect, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Rooney Mara – Nightmare AlleyMartha Plimpton – Mass, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Olga Merediz – In the Heights
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
A Hero
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: The Whale, CODA, Red Rocket, The Card Counter, Mass, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The Tragedy of Macbeth
A Journal for Jordan
Could Jump In: Dune, The Humans, The Last Duel, West Side Story, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee
Luca
Encanto
Apollo 10 1/2
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Belle
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Dune
Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Belfast
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, Belfast, House of Gucci
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The French Dispatch
Cyrano
Cruella
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast
BEST EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
The French Dispatch
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The tragedy of Macbeth
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
House of Gucci
Dune
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Cyrano
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, The Suicide Squad, Eternals, West Side Story
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix 4
Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die
BEST SOUND
Dune
West Side Story
Don’t Look Up
Eternals
A Quiet Place Part II
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In The Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, No Time to Die
BEST SCORE
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Luca, Spencer, No Time to Die
BEST SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Top Gun: Maverick
Annette
Respect
Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up
Venice, after Toronto of course, is the most important festival when it comes to the Oscar race. The last four winners there (The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland) have all been top 4 Best Picture contenders in their respective years and this seems to be a streak that shows no sign of stopping. As a result, the winner at Venice (unless it’s a very out-there pick) will likely become the first movie that can legitimately claim frontrunner status in the Oscar race.
At Venice, there are essentially two categories that can possibly hold a prospective Best Picture contender: In Competition and Out of Competition (Fiction).
These are the films in those two categories:
Opening Night
“Parallel Mothers,” Pedro Almodóvar (in competition)
Competition/Venezia 78
“Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon,” Ana Lily Amirpour
“Un Autre Monde,” Stephanie Brize
“The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion
“America Latina,” Damiano D’Innocenzo and Fabio D’Innocenzo
“L’Evenement,” Audrey Diwan
“Official Competition,” Gaston Duprat and Mariana Cohn
“Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino
“Sundown,” Michel Franco
“Illusions Perdues,” Xavier Giannoli
“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
“Spencer,” Pablo Larrain
“Freaks Out,” Gabrielle Mainetti
“Qui Rido Io,” Mario Martone
“On the Job: The Missing 8,” Erik Matti
“Leave No Traces,” Jan P. Matuszynski
“Captain Volkonogov Escaped,” Natasha Merkulova and Aleksey Chupov
“The Card Counter,” Paul Schrader
“The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino
“Reflection,” Valentyn Vasyanovych
“La Caja,” Lorenzo Vigas
Out of Competition (Fiction)
“Il Bambino Nascosto,” Roberto Ando (closing film of the festival)
“Les Choses Humaines,” Yvan Attal
“Ariaferma,” Leonardo di Costanzo
“Halloween Kills,” David Gordon Green
“La Scoula Cattolica,” Stefano Mordini
“Old Henry,” Potsy Ponciroli
“The Last Duel,” Ridley Scott
“Dune,” Denis Villeneuve
“Last Night in Soho,” Edgar Wright
“Scenes From a Marriage” (Episodes 1-5), Hagai Levi
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 5 years:
2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)
2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story
2018 – In Competition: The Favourite, Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born
2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land; Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge
So, according to this, I believe that there will probably be two films from Venice’s In Competition group and one from their Out of Competition group that will end up as Best Picture nominees.
From the films in competition, I think those with the best chances at the Oscar are (in order of probability): The Power of the Dog, Parallel Mothers, The Hand of God, The Card Counter, Spencer, and The Lost Daughter.
From the films out of competition, those with the best odds in my opinion for attaining a Best Picture nom are (in order of probability): Dune, The Last Duel, and Last Night in Soho.
Here is the rest of Venice’s slate:
Out of Competition (Non Fiction)
“Life of Crime 1984-2020,” Jon Alpert
“Tranchees,” Loup Bureau
“Viaggio Nel Crepuscolo,” Augusto Contento
“Republic of Silence,” Diana el Jeiroudi
“Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song,” Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine
“Deandre#Deandre Storia Di Un Impiegato,” Roberta Lena
“Django and Django,” Luca Rea
“Ezio Bosso. Le Cose Che Restano,” Giorgio Verdelli
Out of Competition (Special Screenings)
“Le 7 Giornate di Bergamo,” Simona Ventura
“Il Cinema Al Tempo del Covid,” Andrea Segre
Out of Competition (Short Films)
“Plastic Semiotic,” Radu Jude
“The Night,” Tsai Ming-Liang
“Sad Film,” Vasili (Pseudonym)
Horizons/Orizzonti
“Les Promesses,” Thomas Kruithof
“Atlantide,” Yuri Ancarani
“Miracle,” Bogdan George Apetri
“Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa
“Il Paradiso Del Pavone,” Laura Bispuri
“The Falls,” Chung Mong-Hong
“El Hoyo en la Cerca,” Joaquin Del Paso
“Amira,” Mohamed Diab
“A Plein Temps,” Eric Gravel
“107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes
“Vera Dreams of the Sea,” Kaltrina Krasniqi
“White Building,” Kavich Neang
“Anatomy of Time,” Jakrawal Nilthamrong
“El Otro Tom,” Rodrigo Pla and Laura Santullo
“El Gran Movimiento,” Kiro Russo
“Once Upon a Time in Calcutta,” Aditya Vikram Sengupta
“Rhino,” Oleg Sentsov
“True Things,” Harry Wootliff
“Inu-Oh,” Yuasa Masaaki
Horizons/Orizzonti Extra
“Land of Dreams,” Sherin Neshat and Shoja Azari
“Costa Brava,” Mounia Akl
“Mama, I’m Home,” Vladimir Bitokov
“Ma Nuit,” Antoinette Boulat
“La Ragazza Ha Volato,” Wilma Labate
“7 Prisoners,” Alexandre Moratto
“The Blind Man Who Did Not Want to See Titanic,” Teemu Nikki
“La Macchina Delle Immagini di Alfredo C.,” Roland Sejko
The Cannes Film Festival is winding down and later today the winners will be announced in the seven major categories at the festival.
The main jury this year is composed of Spike Lee (Jury President), Maggie Gyllenhaal, Mélanie Laurent, Song Kang-ho, Tahar Rahim, Mati Diop, Jessica Hausner, Kleber Mendonça Filho and Mylène Farmer.
These awards will likely not have much say on the Oscars (with the exception of Best International Feature Film), but I’ve been following the festival closely these past few weeks so I decided that it’d be fun to do these predictions because that’s what I do.
Without further ado…
(The first listed item in each category is my main prediction, while the items in parentheses are the picks that I think have the second, third, etc. chance of getting in)
Palme D’or: A Hero (Could-bes: The French Dispatch or Drive My Car)
The Palme D’Or winner usually has to be a film that is at least somewhat accessible to a wide audience since it has to receive the support of diverse group of individuals in order to win. This is the type of film that will win unless another film is an undeniable achievement which was the case for past winners The Tree of Life and Uncle Boonmee Who Could Recall His Past Lives. I don’t think there are any widely-regarded “achievement” films this year and therefore I am going to choose the film that I think has the highest chance of gaining approval from a wide audience: A Hero. Drive My Car and Memoria received the highest scores on the Screen jury poll (a poll that includes collective of critics’ ratings of the films at Cannes), but I doubt those films will receive the wide audience support needed to win here.
Grand Prix: Lingui (Could-bes: Drive My Car, Compartment No. 6, or Bergman Island)
Jury Prize: The Worst Person in the World (Could-bes: A Hero, The French Dispatch)
The Worst Person in the World seemed to have the most positive consensus opinion out out of any film in competition. While I don’t think it’s “serious” enough to win the Palme D’or, the jury prize is the perfect place for it to be awarded. Past winners in the last five years include American Honey, Bacurau, Loveless, and Capernaum and I think that The Worst Person in the World fits well into that mold of a film that more mainstream critics will love as well. If A Hero doesn’t end up winning the big one, it could also see success here. Also watch for other films like The French Dispatch and Casablanca Beats.
Screenplay: Red Rocket (Could-bes: Ahed’s Knee, The French Dispatch, The Worst Person in the World, or The Restless)
Actor: Adam Driver, Annette (Could-bes: Simon Rex, Red Rocket or Amir Jadidi, A Hero)
While the opening of the festival often isn’t in the best position awards-wise as they are often seen with more of a critical eye compared to films that premiere later in the festival, Adam Driver received fantastic notices from critics but watch out for Simon Rex and Jadidi from A Hero.
Actress: Renata Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (Could-bes: Achouackh Abakar, Lingui or Virginie Efira, Benedetta)
While Cannes doesn’t often give two awards to a film, when it happens the film oftentimes receives at least one acting win. I think that could happen here as well since Renata Reinsve had one of the most-acclaimed performances at Cannes this year. Watch out for Abakar from Lingui and Efira from Benedetta as well as their performances were repeatedly singled-out as well.
Director: Memoria and Titane (tied) (Could-bes: The French Dispatch)
This category usually rewards a film that has a very strong and unique vision and past Palme D’Or winner Weerasethakul Apichatpong could see success here as Memoria fits that description. Julia Ducournau’s Titane is an uncompromising vision as well and she just as easily could win this.
The Best Picture field will expand to 10 next year instead of the sliding scale that we’ve seen since 2009 and that benefits films that would have otherwise just missed out on a nomination in Picture (think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami from this past season and The Two Popes from the year before). As a result of this expansion and the Academy’s increased openness to international cinema in recent years, I believe that at least one international film will break into the lineup. It’s also apparent that for an international director to get in to the field, they must already be acclaimed in some way – either with a film that has received major critical acclaim in the United States or with a film that has won the Best International Film Oscar. Asghar Farhadi has achieved both milestones as his A Separation is one of the most acclaimed films of the 2010s and won the Foreign-Language Film Oscar. His 2016 effort The Salesman also won in this category as well. His next film A Hero which will be premiering at Cannes in July should already be seen as a major frontrunner due to the Academy’s affinity with his work. Paolo Sorrentino’s new film The Hand of God should also be in contention as his 2013 film The Great Beauty is considered by many to be a masterpiece and won best Foreign Language Film. Also watch out for Decision to Leave from Oldboy director Park Chan-Wook and Madres Paralelas from Talk to Her and Pain and Glory director Pedro Almodovar.
Theaters are slowly moving back to normal this year and that means that we can probably expect 1-2 bonafide studio blockbusters in the slate this year. Dune, Eternals, or even West Side Story could be the films that achieve the juggling act of being both highly critically-acclaimed and popular among general audiences. Speaking of West Side Story, this year sees the return of major musicals as In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Annette, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, Encanto, and Vivo are all set to be released this year. Of this group, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, and West Side Story seem like the ones with the best chance at breaking into the top 10. However, In the Heights underperformance at the box office definitely hurts its chances. If Tick, Tick…Boom ends up being critically-acclaimed, I could easily see it taking West Side Story’s place as this year’s musical nominee.
There are also films from major auteurs and Oscar favorites this year. Films from Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Adam McKay, Denzel Washington, Aaron Sorkin, Chloe Zhao, David O. Russell, Edgar Wright, Darren Aronofsky, Clint Eastwood, Taika Waititi, Leos Carax, Pablo Larrain, and Paul Schrader are all set to come out this year and that is extremely exciting for me both as a Oscar prognosticator and as a movie fan.
With that, here are my predictions for this month.
BEST PICTURE
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – December 3rd
House of Gucci (MGM) – November 24th
The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)
Soggy Bottom (MGM) – November 26th
The French Dispatch (Searchlight) – October 22nd
Dune (Warner Bros.) – October 1st
The Last Duel (20th Century) – October 15th
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) – 2021 (TBD)
West Side Story (20th Century) – December 10th
A Hero (Amazon) – July 2021 (Cannes)
Could Jump In:
Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)
The Hand of God (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)
A Journal for Jordan (Sony) – December 10th
Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – TBD
In the Heights (Warner Bros.) – June 11th
CODA (Apple+) – August 13th
Eternals (Disney/Marvel) – November 5th
Blue Bayou (Focus) – September 17th
Canterbury Glass (20th Century) – TBD
The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.) – September 24th
Last Night in Soho (Focus) – October 22nd
The Card Counter (Focus) – September 10th
Tick, Tick…Boom (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)
Respect (MGM) – August 13th
The Whale (A24) – TBD
Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) – TBD
Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) – October 22nd
Blonde (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)
Spencer (Neon) – 2021 (TBD)
Mass (Bleecker Street) – 2021 (TBD)
Passing (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon) – 2021 (TBD)
Decision to Leave – TBD
Belfast (Focus) – November 12th
The Humans (A24) – 2021 (TBD)
Annette (Amazon) – July 7th (Cannes)
C’mon C’mon (A24) – TBD
As I mentioned previously there are many major filmmakers coming through with films this year and many, including all-time greats like Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, and Ridley Scott, are completely Oscarless. While that easily could be something that is rectified this year, I have a feeling that Jane Campion (who previously won Adapted Screenplay for The Piano) will become the second-ever female Best Director winner.
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Ridley Scott – The Last Duel or House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Denis Villeneuve – Dune, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Jon M. Chu – In The Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Sian Heder – CODA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave
The amount of biopic performances here is crazy (Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, and Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe to name a few) and I think that either a fictional character performance is going to end up surpassing all the biopic performances or one biopic performance is going to be from a top 4 Best Picture contender and end up prevailing. This category is also very deep and I think that the top 16 contenders I have listed all have a good chance of hitting the top 5.
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Could Jump In: Ana de Armas – Blonde, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Halle Berry – Bruised, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Melanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball
While I could easily see Washington winning his thirs acting Oscar as Macbeth, Cumberbatch is playing a very menacing and unnerving character in The Power of the Dog and if the film becomes a top 4 Best Picture contender, he seems like he could definitely prevail. Like Best Actress, this category seems to be stacked as well and I think that the top 12 contenders I have listed here all have a great chance of receiving a nomination.
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Adam Driver – House of Gucci
Will Smith – King Richard
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God
I have two actresses from Sundance indies in my predictions here and while that is unlikely to actually end up happening, both Negga and Dowd have generated lots of buzz for their respective performances. It remains to be seen if that buzz will be diminished by Oscar voting time. Jodie Comer has generated a lot of goodwill for her work on Killing Eve and that buzz could catapult her into an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win. Medieval-set movies don’t usually have very meaty roles for women but as Nicole Holofcener is credited as a writer (in addition to, of course, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck), I think Comer could have a lot to do.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jodie Comer – The Last Duel
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Ruth Negga – Passing
Ann Dowd – Mass
Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Olga Merediz – In the Heights, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Judi Dench – Belfast, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Regina King – The Harder They Fall, Zoe Saldana – Canterbury Glass, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans
Bradley Cooper is going to win an Oscar in the next 10 years as he’s been nominated for eight in the previous ten years. This year he has two performances in films from Guillermo del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson in contention and I think his performance in the latter film could leave an impression if it is more than a glorified cameo. I am particularly curious about how John David Washington’s performance will end up performing as Canterbury Glass seems like a movie that will be catered to the tastes of the Academy yet due to the controversy surrounding director David O. Russell, the amount of nominations it will receive will most likely be limited. I have been very conservative about its chances in my predictions, but it could very well end up like Bohemian Rhapsody which did not receive a Director nomination (its director Bryan Singer had quite a few sexual assault allegations) but received both a Picture and acting noms. If Canterbury Glass wades through the cloud surrounding Russell and makes it into Picture, it most likely will also receive acting nominations for any of Bale, Robbie, Washington, or Saldana, a cinematography nomination, and a nomination in Score.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Adam Driver – The Last Duel
Al Pacino – House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter, Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall, John David Washington – Canterbury Glass, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Colman Domingo – Zola, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Richard Jenkins – The Humans
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
A Hero
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The Card Counter, The Whale, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God, CODA, Mass, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, C’mon C’mon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley
The Last Duel
A Journal for Jordan
Could Jump In: Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, Next Goal Wins, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, West Side Story, Dear Evan Hansen
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee
Luca
Encanto
Apollo 10 1/2
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo, The Boss Baby 2, Peter Rabbit 2, Sing 2
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The French Dispatch
Cyrano
Being the Ricardos
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Cruella, West Side Story, Dune, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, Blonde, Canterbury Glass
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Canterbury Glass, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, House of Gucci, Annette, Blonde, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Dune
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Blonde, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Whale
BEST EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth, A Journal for Jordan, The Card Counter, Cry Macho
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The French Dispatch
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, Cruella, In the Heights, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Last Night in Soho, The Power of the Dog, Being the Ricardos, Canterbury Glass
BEST SCORE
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: Canterbury Glass, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Spencer, Annette, Luca, No Time to Die, Zola
BEST SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Top Gun: Maverick
Annette
Respect
Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Don’t Look Up, Defying Gravity, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cyrano, Vivo
BEST SOUND
Dune
West Side Story
Don’t Look Up
Eternals
A Quiet Place Part II
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix 4
Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, The Green Knight, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Jungle Cruise, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, No Time to Die, Top Gun: Maverick
[Update: 6/11/21 – Due to a comment, I have added Ex Machina to the list as I realized that it perfectly fits the criteria I have laid out and I can’t think of any reason it should not be included.]
What is a classic movie?
Classics aren’t always the greatest films and this is not a “greatest films of the 2010s list” (for that go here). My definition of a classic would be a film that has become a mainstay in popular culture either through widespread rewatches or through references in other forms of popular culture. They don’t necessarily have to be good films (even though for this list I’ll only focus on movies that are generally thought of to be good, sorry “Cats”), but usually the reason a film has staying power is because of it being either very entertaining, very successful, or very impactful (which is kind of vague, I know, but what I mean by this is that the film has a strong emotional impact).
I am only going to focus on films that are are “Hollywood” films made with Hollywood actors and/or at a Hollywood studio (so that excludes foreign-language films like ‘Parasite’, ‘A Separation’ or ‘The Hunt’ which all would have otherwise been on this list). Using all of the criteria that I have laid out so far some classics from the 90s would be: (in no specific order)
Goodfellas (1990)
Pulp Fiction (1994)
Schindler’s List (1993)
Fargo (1996)
Unforgiven (1992)
The Big Lebowski (1998)
Groundhog Day (1993)
The Matrix (1999)
The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
The Shawshank Redemption (1994)
Fight Club (1999)
Jurassic Park (1993)
Toy Story (1995)
Se7en (1995)
Saving Private Ryan (1998)
American Beauty (1999)
Forrest Gump (1994)
The Usual Suspects (1995)
Scream (1996)
Clueless (1995)
The Lion King (1994)
Reservoir Dogs (1992)
The Sixth Sense (1999)
Good Will Hunting (1997)
Titanic (1997)
Terminator 2: Judgement Day (1991)
Trainspotting (1996)
Beauty and the Beast (1991)
Edward Scissorhands (1990)
The Truman Show (1998)
Braveheart (1995)
The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993)
Leon: The Professional (1994)
12 Monkeys (1995)
Heat (1995)
Home Alone (1990)
A Few Good Men (1992)
Jerry Maguire (1996)
The Blair Witch Project (1999)
This, for example, would be my list if I was compiling the classics of the 90s as they are mix of blockbusters, dramas, and comedies that have persisted through time and remain a significant part of popular culture today as they are oft-referenced by the general movie-watching public.
With my list, I want to find movies from the 2010s that I believe are likely to have the same amount of popular culture significance that these films have had 20+ years after they were released.
So without further ado, here are my picks.
2010
Black Swan
‘Black Swan’ (Searchlight)
Directed by: Darren Aronofsky
Synopsis: “A committed dancer struggles to maintain her sanity after winning the lead role in a production of Tchaikovsky’s “Swan Lake”.” (From IMDb)
Other than featuring an Oscar-winning turn from Natalie Portman, inspired direction from Darren Aronofsky, and themes of self-destructive obsession, “Black Sawn” is also, far and away, the most well-known film that centers around ballet (its closest competitor is probably “The Red Shoes”). With that distinction, when many people think of ballet, they will think of this movie (for better or worse) and that, in addition to the film’s own merit, will sustain its popularity for years to come.
Inception
‘Inception’ (Warner Bros.)
Directed by: Christopher Nolan
Synopsis: “A thief (Leonardo DiCaprio) who steals corporate secrets through the use of dream-sharing technology is given the inverse task of planting an idea into the mind of a C.E.O (Cillian Murphy).” (From IMDb)
An amazing sci-fi thriller that stays in your mind long after the credits roll, “Inception” is a high-concept and ambitious film that achieves what it sets out to on multiple levels. The originality of the film’s conceit combined with its immense entertainment value will make sure that this film is well-remembered and still watched decades from now.
Shutter Island
‘Shutter Island’ (Paramount)
Directed by: Martin Scorsese
Synopsis: “In 1954, a U.S. Marshal (Leonardo DiCaprio) investigates the disappearance of a murderer who escaped from a hospital for the criminally insane.” (From IMDb).
A very memorable experience filled with mystery, “Shutter Island” will probably be remembered as a great thriller by a master of suspense filled with shocking twists and turns.
The Social Network
‘The Social Network’ (Columbia)
Directed by: David Fincher
Synopsis: “As Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg (Jesse Eisenberg) creates the social networking site that would become known as Facebook, he is sued by the twins (Armie Hammer) who claimed he stole their idea, and by the co-founder (Andrew Garfield) who was later squeezed out of the business.” (From IMDb).
A modern classic in every sense, “The Social Network” will continue to be relevant even if Facebook ceases to become the behemoth it is today as the film really could be applied to any story about greed and power. However, as the Internet age shows no signs of ending any time soon, this film will continue to have especially immense relevance.
Toy Story 3
‘Toy Story 3’ (Disney/Pixar)
Directed by: Lee Unkrich
Synopsis: “The toys are mistakenly delivered to a day-care center instead of the attic right before Andy (John Morris) leaves for college, and it’s up to Woody (Tom Hanks) to convince the other toys that they weren’t abandoned and to return home.” (From IMDb).
The best film from the greatest animated trilogy of all-time, “Toy Story 3” is a perfect coming-of-age movie that deals with growing up and letting go in a very intimate way. This is a movie that parents will be showing their kids for years and years so it is destined to become a classic (if it already isn’t one).
2011
Bridesmaids
‘Bridesmaids’ (Universal)
Directed by: Paul Feig
Synopsis: “Competition between the maid of honor (Kristen Wiig) and a bridesmaid (Rose Byrne), over who is the bride’s (Maya Rudolph) best friend, threatens to upend the life of an out-of-work pastry chef.” (From IMDb).
Of the pure comedies from this decade, “Bridesmaids” is probably the most fondly remembered. It is already an oft-referenced movie that launched the film careers of Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig, two people who have cemented themselves as two of this decade’s biggest names in comedy.
Drive
‘Drive’ (FilmDistrict)
Directed by: Nicholas Winding Refn
Synopsis: “A mysterious Hollywood stuntman and mechanic (Ryan Gosling) moonlights as a getaway driver and finds himself in trouble when he helps out his neighbor (Carey Mulligan).” (From IMDb).
A film that is primed for strong cult classic status, “Drive” is a stylish film with a terrific synth-laden soundtrack that boasts a Ryan Gosling performance that catapulted him from indie darling to mainstream star. This adrenaline rush of a film will be a pop culture mainstay for all those reasons and more.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2’ (Warner Bros.)
Directed by: David Yates
Synopsis: “Harry (Daniel Radcliffe), Ron (Rupert Grint), and Hermione (Emma Watson) search for Voldemort’s (Ralph Fiennes) remaining Horcruxes in their effort to destroy the Dark Lord as the final battle rages on at Hogwarts.” (From IMDb).
The satisfying final film of one of the most popular film franchises of all-time, “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” is generally considered to be the best film in the franchise (I think ‘Prisoner of Azkaban’ is slightly better but…) and is a rare example of a franchise conclusion done in a way that appeases die-hard fans, casual moviegoers, and critics alike.
The Tree of Life
‘The Tree of Life’ (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Directed by: Terrence Malick
Synopsis: “The story of a family in Waco, Texas in 1956. The eldest son (Hunter McCracken) witnesses the loss of innocence and struggles with his parents’ (Brad Pitt and Jessica Chastain) conflicting teachings.” (From IMDb)
While it is seen as a quintessential “critics’ film” by the general public, “The Tree of Life” the divisive film will be remembered by those who have been profoundly affected by its’ stunning ambition, philosophical themes, and beautiful imagery. It is a pure art-house film made with A-list actors like Brad Pitt, Jessica Chastain, and Sean Penn and, as a result, it made over $50 million dollars worldwide, which is outstanding for a film like this. Critics will definitely remember this film and general audience will as well as, due to the A-list talent, many of them experienced a kind of film that was vastly different than anything they had seen before.
2012
Django Unchained
‘Django Unchained’ (The Weinstein Company)
Directed by: Quentin Tarantino
Synopsis: “With the help of a German bounty hunter (Christoph Waltz), a freed slave (Jamie Foxx) sets out to rescue his wife (Kerry Washington) from a brutal Mississippi plantation owner (Leonardo DiCaprio).” (From IMDb).
Quentin Tarantino’s revisionist western, “Django Unchained” is the best western of the decade and continues the sacred Hollywood tradition of the western into the future. The great cast is also full of performers that had great success during this decade and that could propel this film into the pop culture canon as well.
The Master
‘The Master’ (The Weinstein Company)
Directed by: Paul Thomas Anderson
Synopsis: A Naval veteran (Joaquin Phoenix) arrives home from war unsettled and uncertain of his future – until he is tantalized by the Cause and its charismatic leader (Philip Seymour Hoffman).
Led by two astonishingly intense performances from Joaquin Phoenix and Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master” is a deeply psychological exploration and character study that deals with cults (Hoffman’s character is based on Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard) and PTSD.
2013
12 Years a Slave
’12 Years A Slave’ (Fox Searchlight)
Directed by: Steve McQueen
Synopsis: “In the antebellum United States, Solomon Northup (Chiwetel Ejiofor), a free black man from upstate New York, is abducted and sold into slavery.” (From IMDb).
A movie that is starting to be shown in some high school history classes, “12 Years a Slave” is a brutally realistic and necessary film that will be looked at as the most important film about slavery.
Frozen
‘Frozen’ (Disney)
Directed by: Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee
Synopsis: “When the newly crowned Queen Elsa (Idina Menzel) accidentally uses her power to turn things into ice to curse her home in infinite winter, her sister Anna (Kristen Bell) teams up with a mountain man (Jonathan Groff), his playful reindeer, and a snowman (Josh Gad) to change the weather condition.” (From IMDb).
The highest grossing animated film that is not a sequel, spinoff, or remake, “Frozen” was by far the most popular movie among a generation of kids for a year. The film’s massive popularity and rabid fanbase is indicative of the fact that this film is a certified Gen Z classic.
Her
‘Her’ (Warner Bros.)
Directed by: Spike Jonze
Synopsis: In a near future, a lonely writer (Joaquin Phoenix) develops an unlikely relationship with an operating system (Scarlett Johansson) designed to meet his every need.
This decade’s “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”, “Her” (like that fellow romantic drama with a sci-fi twist) is destined to be a classic. This film will likely become even more relevant as its depiction of a man’s relationship with an operating system may be prophetic as advances in artificial intelligence continue.
The Wolf of Wall Street
‘The Wolf of Wall Street’ (Paramount)
Directed by: Martin Scorsese
Synopsis: “Based on the true story of Jordan Belfort (Leonardo DiCaprio), from his rise to a wealthy stock-broker living the high life to his fall involving crime, corruption and the federal government.” (From IMDb).
An exhilarating portrait of the greed and excess seen on Wall Street, “The Wolf of Wall Street” has one of Leonardo DiCaprio’s greatest performances and is an exciting cautionary tale that keeps the audience’s attention for all three hours of its runtime.
2014
Birdman
‘Birdman’ (Searchlight)
Directed by: Alejandro G. Inarittu
Synopsis: “A washed-up superhero actor (Michael Keaton) attempts to revive his fading career by writing, directing, and starring in a Broadway production.” (From IMDb).
An artistic tour-de-force that is also a critique of the formulaicness of many modern Hollywood films, “Birdman” is a Best Picture winner that will age well due to its adventurous energy and creativity. This film is oftentimes very meta and features fantastic performances from Michael Keaton, Emma Stone, and Edward Norton.
Boyhood
‘Boyhood’ (IFC Films)
Directed by: Richard Linklater
Synopsis: “The life of Mason (Ellar Coltrane), from early childhood to his arrival at college.” (From IMDb).
This decade’s ultimate American coming-of-age film (with “Moonlight” being its closest contender), “Boyhood” is really a slice of life film that sheds a light on the maturation years of a generation. That factor ensures that the film will be a nostalgia trip for millions and what is a classic but a nostalgia trip?
Ex Machina
‘Ex Machina’ (A24)
Directed by: Alex Garland
Synopsis: “A young programmer (Domnhall Gleeson) is selected to participate in a ground-breaking experiment in synthetic intelligence by evaluating the human qualities of a highly advanced humanoid A.I. (Alicia Vikander)” (From IMDb).
As AI continues to become more prevalent and relevant in our society, “Ex Machina” will likely be deemed prescient which is an adjective that cements a sci-fi film’s place in the genre’s canon. The brilliant and thrilling story from Alex Garland is brought to life by a trio of great performances from Domnhall Gleeson, Oscar Isaac, and Alicia Vikander (in the performance that should of won her her Oscar instead of The Danish Girl).
Gone Girl
‘Gone Girl’ (20th Century Fox)
Directed by: David Fincher
Synopsis: “With his wife’s disappearance having become the focus of an intense media circus, a man sees the spotlight turned on him when it’s suspected that he may not be innocent.” (From IMDb).
Mystery thrillers often become classics because they are exciting films and are serious enough for people to feel proud that they enjoyed them. That pride often leads to mystery thrillers becoming classics through positive word-of-mouth from adult film enthusiasts. “Gone Girl” will likely follow this trend and become a classic through this word-of mouth.
The Grand Budapest Hotel
‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ (Searchlight)
Directed by: Wes Anderson
Synopsis: “A writer encounters the owner of an aging high-class hotel, who tells him of his early years serving as a lobby boy (Tony Revolori) in the hotel’s glorious years under an exceptional concierge (Ralph Fiennes).” (From IMDb).
The most accessible film from one of the most well-known indie directors, “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is (arguably) Wes Anderson’s masterpiece and boasts one of the most impressive casts ever put on screen.
Interstellar
‘Interstellar’ (Paramount)
Directed by: Christopher Nolan
Synopsis: “A team of explorers (Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, Wes Bentley, and David Gyasi) travel through a wormhole in space in an attempt to ensure humanity’s survival.” (From IMDb).
An addition to the bounty of thought-provoking science-fiction films we saw this decade, “Interstellar” is an intelligent and emotional member of that canon. The novelty of some of the ideas in the film and their presentation in an accessible and entertaining way will make sure this film is remembered.
Nightcrawler
‘Nightcrawler’ (Open Road)
Directed by: Dan Gilroy
Synopsis: “When Louis Bloom (Jake Gyllenhaal), a con man desperate for work, muscles into the world of L.A. crime journalism, he blurs the line between observer and participant to become the star of his own story.” (From IMDb).
Anchored by a manic performance from Jake Gyllenhaal and an intelligent screenplay from Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler” is a dark satire about the state of journalism today that cements itself as part of the LA-noir canon that includes such classics as Chinatown, Heat, and LA Confidential.
Whiplash
‘Whiplash’ (Sony Pictures Classics)
Directed by: Damien Chazelle
Synopsis: “A promising young drummer (Miles Teller) enrolls at a cut-throat music conservatory where his dreams of greatness are mentored by an instructor (J.K. Simmons) who will stop at nothing to realize a student’s potential.” (From IMDb).
An intense and unforgettable experience to behold, “Whiplash” is about a drummer’s quest to be the greatest but the themes can be applied to any person with a drive to be the best in their field.
2015
Inside Out
‘Inside Out’ (Disney/Pixar)
Directed by: Pete Docter
Synopsis: “After young Riley (Kaitlyn Dias) is uprooted from her Midwest life and moved to San Francisco, her emotions – Joy (Amy Poehler), Fear (Bill Hader), Anger (Lewis Black), Disgust (Mindy Kaling) and Sadness (Phyllis Smith) – conflict on how best to navigate a new city, house, and school.” (From IMDb).
With a coming-of-age story that will resonate forever, “Inside Out” teaches kids that it’s OK to be sad and the emotion that the film provides while delivering that message will ensure that parents that needed this film when they were preteens will share it with their kids when they need it as well.
Mad Max: Fury Road
‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ (Warner Bros.)
Directed by: George Miller
Synopsis: “In a post-apocalyptic wasteland, a woman (Charlize Theron) rebels against a tyrannical ruler in search for her homeland with the aid of a group of female prisoners, a psychotic worshiper, and a drifter named Max (Tom Hardy).” (From IMDb).
An action film that never stops and throws its audience through 120 minutes of top-notch action without taking a breath, “Mad Max: Fury Road” is one-of-a-kind experience that feels like a film that people will revisit over an over again in order to get that unique adrenaline rush you only can get from watching a great action film.
The Martian
‘The Martian’ (20th Century Fox)
Directed by: Ridley Scott
Synopsis: “An astronaut (Matt Damon) becomes stranded on Mars after his team assume him dead, and must rely on his ingenuity to find a way to signal to Earth that he is alive.” (From IMDb).
A movie that was applauded for its realism, “The Martian” will be remembered for that and more as it is a well-told story with a great central performance from Matt Damon. As space exploration becomes more advanced this film may become prophetic.
Spotlight
‘Spotlight’ (Open Road)
Directed by: Tom McCarthy
Synopsis: “When the Boston Globe’s tenacious “Spotlight” team of reporters delves into allegations of abuse in the Catholic Church, their year-long investigation uncovers a decades-long cover-up at the highest levels of Boston’s religious, legal, and government establishment, touching off a wave of revelations around the world.” (From IMDb).
A film that demonstrates the utmost importance of the free press, Best Picture winner “Spotlight” is a celebration of investigative journalism, and therefore truth.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ (Disney)
Directed by: J.J. Abrams
Synopsis: “As a new threat to the galaxy rises, Rey (Daisy Ridley), a desert scavenger, and Finn (John Boyega), an ex-stormtrooper, must join Han Solo (Harrison Ford) and Chewbacca (Peter Mayhew) to search for the one hope of restoring peace.” (From IMDb).
The least controversial chapter (and it definitely is controversial) of the sequel trilogy for Star Wars fans, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” remains the highest-grossing film in the United States which is a testament to the monumental impact it made back in 2015. It, more than any of the other films in the sequel trilogy, feels like a classic Star Wars film and that combination of nostalgia and new, dynamic characters will make this film persist for years to come.
2016
Arrival
‘Arrival’ (Paramount)
Directed by: Denis Villeneuve
Synopsis: “A linguist (Amy Adams) works with the military to communicate with alien lifeforms after twelve mysterious spacecrafts appear around the world.” (From IMDb).
A thoughtful scifi-drama with an emotional gut-punch of an ending, “Arrival” is quiet but engaging and contemplative but suspenseful. The attention to detail that went into the film (the filmmakers made a fully functioning alien language) is astounding and will likely be talked about as part of the film trivia canon for decades. Also, Amy Adams was massively snubbed by the Oscars that year.
Deadpool
‘Deadpool’ (20th Century Fox)
Directed by: Tim Miller
Synopsis: “A wisecracking mercenary gets experimented on and becomes immortal but ugly, and sets out to track down the man who ruined his looks.” (From IMDb).
The movie that catapulted Ryan Reynolds into the realm of near-universal likability, “Deadpool” is a hilariously vulgar take down of the superhero genre and features a hilarious turn from Reynolds and a smart screenplay from Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick. As this decade will likely be known as the decade where the superhero genre completely took over the mainstream, movies like “Deadpool” that subverted the genre while staying firmly inside of it will be remembered for being distinctive and successful.
La La Land
‘La La Land’ (Lionsgate)
Directed by: Damien Chazelle
Synopsis: “While navigating their careers in Los Angeles, a pianist (Ryan Gosling) and an actress (Emma Stone) fall in love while attempting to reconcile their aspirations for the future.” (From IMDb).
The greatest Hollywood film musical of the decade, “La La Land” is an emotional rollercoaster with stunning (and now iconic) imagery from Linus Sandgren and a fantastic musical score from Justin Hurwitz. The film harkens back to the classic Hollywood tradition of film musicals while adding satisfying contemporary touches: a combination that will make the film timeless.
Moonlight
‘Moonlight’ (A24)
Directed by: Barry Jenkins
Synopsis: “A young African-American man (Alex R. Hibbert, Ashton Sanders, and Trevante Rhodes) grapples with his identity and sexuality while experiencing the everyday struggles of childhood, adolescence, and burgeoning adulthood.” (From IMDb).
Evocative and lyrical, “Moonlight” is an astonishing film with incredible cinematography from James Laxton, an amazing score from “Succession” composer Nicholas Britell, and a bevy of marvelous performances from the whole cast (especially Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, and Trevante Rhodes). This film is a necessary addition to the coming-of-age canon and will persist for decades.
2017
Blade Runner 2049
‘Blade Runner 2049’ (Warner Bros.)
Directed by: Denis Villeneuve
Synopsis: “Young Blade Runner K’s (Ryan Gosling) discovery of a long-buried secret leads him to track down former Blade Runner Rick Deckard (Harrison Ford), who’s been missing for thirty years.” (From IMDb).
The years-in-the-making sequel to what is arguably the most acclaimed sci-fi film of all time, “Blade Runner 2049” had impossible expectations to meet yet somehow managed to end up satisfying the majority of fans. That is a major feat that will help Villenueve’s film endure as an achievement on its own.
Call Me By Your Name
‘Call Me By Your Name’ (Sony Pictures Classics)
Directed by: Luca Guadagnino
Synopsis: “In 1980s Italy, romance blossoms between a seventeen-year-old student (Timothee Chalamet) and the older man (Armie Hammer) hired as his father’s research assistant.” (From IMDb).
A beautifully-shot (courtesy of Sayombhu Mukdeeprom) tale of young love, “Call Me By Your Name” is Luca Guadagnino’s masterpiece and features magnificent performances from Timothee Chalamet, Armie Hammer, and Michael Stuhlbarg. It also contains a few Sufjan Stevens songs, “Mystery of Love” being one of my all-time favorites.
Coco
‘Coco’ (Disney/Pixar)
Directed by: Lee Unkrich
Synopsis: “Aspiring musician Miguel (Anthony Gonzalez), confronted with his family’s ancestral ban on music, enters the Land of the Dead to find his great-great-grandfather, a legendary singer.” (From IMDb).
Probably one of the legendary animation studio’s more underrated films, “Coco” continues Pixar’s streak of effortlessly entertaining yet thoughtful original films. Films like “Inside Out”, “Coco”, and “Soul” bring that classic Pixar magic to a new generation of kids who will grow up and share those experiences with their kids.
Get Out
‘Get Out’ (Universal)
Directed by: Jordan Peele
Synopsis: “A young African-American (Daniel Kaluuya) visits his white girlfriend’s (Alison Williams) parents (Bradley Whitford, Catherine Keener) for the weekend, where his simmering uneasiness about their reception of him eventually reaches a boiling point.” (From IMDb).
Biting in its satire and shocking in its horror, “Get Out” has hilarious moments and just as often has moments of pure terror. This film from sketch-comedy master Jordan Peele is an accessible but intelligent examination of modern-day racism and fake “wokeness”.
It
‘It’ (New Line Cinema)
Directed by: Andy Muschietti
Synopsis: “In the summer of 1989, a group of bullied kids band together to destroy a shape-shifting monster, which disguises itself as a clown and preys on the children of Derry, their small Maine town.” (From IMDb).
The highest-grossing horror film ever, “It” made a surprise splash when it was released in 2017 and became the kind of pervasive cultural object that the annual Marvel film often is. Accessible but scary, was one of the most-talked about films of 2017 (“Get Out” would also fit this description, probably to a greater extent), something a horror film hadn’t been since “The Ring” in 2002.
Lady Bird
‘Lady Bird’ (A24)
Directed by: Greta Gerwig
Synopsis: “In 2002, an artistically inclined seventeen-year-old girl (Saoirse Ronan) comes of age in Sacramento, California.” (From IMDb).
Featuring spectacular and Oscar-worthy performances from Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” is a poignant, hilarious, and beautiful portrait of a young woman’s coming of age. The ensemble is full of remarkable young actors (Timothee Chalamet, Lucas Hedges, and Beanie Feldstein) who are destined to become bigger stars in Hollywood.
Logan
‘Logan’ (20th Century Fox)
Directed by: James Mangold
Synopsis: “In a future where mutants are nearly extinct, an elderly and weary Logan (Hugh Jackman) leads a quiet life. But when Laura (Dafne Keen), a mutant child pursued by scientists, comes to him for help, he must get her to safety.” (From IMDb).
A “comic-book movie” that feels more like a Western, “Logan” is one of the most poignant superhero films of this century and features great performances from Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, and the newcomer Dafne Keen. Patrick Stewart was actually nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the Critics Choice Awards, something that is extremely rare for a superhero film performance to do (its only happened thrice, in 2017 for Stewart, in 2008 for Heath Ledger who won as well, and in 2018 for Michael B. Jordan’s performance in Black Panther, which happens to also be on this list).
2018
Black Panther
‘Black Panther’ (Marvel)
Directed by: Ryan Coogler
Synopsis: “T’Challa (Chadwick Boseman), heir to the hidden but advanced kingdom of Wakanda, must step forward to lead his people into a new future and must confront a challenger from his country’s past.” (From IMDb).
A film that rises above its superhero movie trappings, “Black Panther” is a visionary Afrofuturist marvel that touched on socioeconomic issues while providing exhilarating action sequences. R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman.
Hereditary
‘Hereditary’ (A24)
Directed by: Ari Aster
Synopsis: “A grieving family (Toni Colette, Gabriel Byrne, Alex Wolff, Milly Shapiro) is haunted by tragic and disturbing occurrences.” (From IMDb).
A future cult classic, “Hereditary” will join the best of its genre with its top-notch supernatural horror empowered by Aster’s mastery of atmosphere. Toni Colette’s performance will also be remembered as a symbol of the Academy’s long-standing bias against horror film performances as she was not nominated even with dozens of awards accrued throughout the season.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse’ (Sony/Marvel)
Directed by: Bob Persichietti, Pete Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman
Synopsis:
Probably my personal favorite superhero film of the decade, “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” is a stunningly animated and emotionally impactful film that somehow finds a fresh way to tell the classic superhero origin story. Hilarious and heartwarming, this one of the best films of the decade, animated or not.
2019
1917
‘1917’ (Universal)
Directed by: Sam Mendes
Synopsis: “April 6th, 1917. As a regiment assembles to wage war deep in enemy territory, two soldiers (Dean-Charles Chapman and George MacKay) are assigned to race against time and deliver a message that will stop 1,600 men from walking straight into a deadly trap.” (From IMDb).
With stunning cinematography from the incomparable Roger Deakins, “1917” is an immersive and extraordinary war film that puts the audience in the shows of two World War I soldiers with the aid of long takes (the majority of the film is made to look like one unbroken shot), fantastic camerawork from Deakins, and solid performances from the cast.
Avengers: Endgame and Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
‘Avengers: Endgame’ (Marvel)
Directed by: Anthony and Joe Russo
Synopsis: “The Avengers and their allies must be willing to sacrifice all in an attempt to defeat the powerful Thanos (Josh Brolin) before his blitz of devastation and ruin puts an end to the universe. After the devastating events of ‘Avengers: Infinity War’, the universe is in ruins. With the help of remaining allies, the Avengers assemble once more in order to reverse Thanos’ actions and restore balance to the universe.” (From IMDb).
Both in the top 5 all-time when it comes to worldwide box office gross, “Avengers: Infinity War” and “Avengers: Endgame” were the biggest movies of the 2010s and that fact alone certifies their place as classics that will be oft-referenced and oft-discussed especially since the Marvel Cinematic Universe shows no signs of stopping.
Joker
‘Joker’ (Warner Bros.)
Directed by: Todd Phillips
Synopsis: “In Gotham City, mentally troubled comedian Arthur Fleck (Joaquin Phoenix) is disregarded and mistreated by society. He then embarks on a downward spiral of revolution and bloody crime. This path brings him face-to-face with his alter-ego: the Joker.” (From IMDb).
A dark and gritty comic book film that draws more inspiration from Scorsese and Lumet than from Burton and Snyder, “Joker” was the origin story that the iconic villain deserved with an Oscar-winning performance from the chameleonic Joaquin Phoenix at its core.
Knives Out
‘Knives Out’ (Lionsgate)
Directed by: Rian Johnson
Synopsis: “A detective (Daniel Craig) investigates the death of a patriarch of an eccentric, combative family.” (From IMDb).
A throwback whodunit that touches on very current themes, “Knives Out” is a delightfully fun murder mystery that you’ll want to watch and watch again. The stacked ensemble cast are all in strong form crafting distinct and quirky characters that are a joy to experience.
Uncut Gems
‘Uncut Gems’ (A24)
Directed by: Josh and Benny Safdie
Synopsis: “With his debts mounting and angry collectors closing in, a fast-talking New York City jeweler (Adam Sandler) risks everything in hope of staying afloat and alive.”
As one of the stated requirements of this list is that a chosen film has to be “generally thought of to be good”, it maybe a surprise to some that an Adam Sandler film has been included. However, “Uncut Gems” is not a normal Sandler project and will be recognized as a fantastic departure from the norm for one of the most famous comedians working today.
Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.
Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.
Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.
Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
House of Gucci (MGM)
Soggy Bottom (MGM)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Coda (Apple+)
A Hero (Amazon)
Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God
Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Ridley Scott – House of Gucci
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Denis Villenueve – Dune
Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Smith – King Richard
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Adam Driver – House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom
Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall
Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)
Ruth Negga – Passing
Olga Merediz – In the Heights
Marlee Matlin – CODA
Ann Dowd – Mass
Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
A Hero
Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
House of Gucci
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
A Journal for Jordan
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Apollo 10 1/2
Flee
Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Being the Ricardos
Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
House of Gucci
Cyrano
West Side Story
Don’t Worry Darling
Dune
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Cyrano
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale
BEST SOUND
Dune
Eternals
Top Gun: Maverick
West Side Story
A Quiet Place: Part II
Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix 4
Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood
Dune – Hans Zimmer
Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat
The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat
Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Dear Evan Hansen
Tick, Tick…Boom
Defying Gravity
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie