Awards Insights

Tag: 2022

  • Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

    Late December Oscar Predictions 2023

    The Golden Globes, AFI, and Critics Choice awards have all been released and with them comes a clearer picture of what the Best Picture race will most probably end up looking like. At this point, I can essentially guarantee that EEAAO, The Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Tar will be receiving Best Picture nods. They are the biggest contenders this year and other than hitting all the major precursors, they’ve also performed the best at the critics’ awards thus far. 

    The films that I see as very close to locked yet could also foresee a scenario where they don’t get a Best Picture nod are Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking, Babylon, and Elvis. All four of these films have done very well so far and have hit enough precursors for me to be confident in their inclusion, but a couple of factors here and there keep me from naming them guarantees. 

    That leaves two slots. One thing to note is that in the last four years, there has been at least one Netflix film nominated and, in the last three there have been two a year. In this year’s top eight, I have not included a Netflix film meaning that one of these last two slots will be filled by the streamer. RRR and Glass Onion are Netflix’s two biggest films this year and while both making it is a possibility, I don’t see it happening. RRR is the film with more passion and with a Best Director award from NYFCC and a CCA nod under its belt I can see the film being this year’s primarily non-English inclusion (the last four years have seen at least one primarily non-English film nominated). I am choosing Avatar 2 to fill in the last slot as of the remaining films it has hit the most precursors. 

    BEST PICTURE 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI 

    The Fabelmans (Universal) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), AFI (Special Award) 

    Tar (Focus) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI  

    Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI  

    Women Talking (MGM) – CCA, AFI 

    Babylon (Paramount) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical) 

    Elvis (Warner Bros.) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    RRR (Netflix) – CCA 

    Avatar 2 (20th Century) – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI 

    Could Jump In: Aftersun, She Said (Universal) – AFI, Glass Onion (Netflix) – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), The Woman King (Sony) – AFI, Till (MGM), Triangle of Sadness (NEON) – GG (Comedy/Musical), All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix), Bardo (Netflix), Decision to Leave (MUBI), Empire of Light (Searchlight), The Whale (A24) 

    Without DGA (the strongest predictor of this category), this category can be very hard to predict. However, I still believe I can safely say that Spielberg and the Daniels are pretty much locked and are the only two directors that have a realistic chance of taking this award come March. If RRR gets into Picture, I think NYFCC winner Rajamouli could follow it into Director in turn.  

    While The Fabelmans could very likely give Spielberg his third Director Oscar, I think Everything Everywhere All at Once is too strong and take Director, if not the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay. 

    BEST DIRECTOR 

    Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Todd Field – Tar – CCA 

    Sarah Polley – Women Talking – CCA 

    S.S. Rajamouli – RRR – CCA 

    Could Jump In: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA, Damien Chazelle – Babylon – CCA, James Cameron – Avatar 2 – GG, CCA, Baz Luhrmann – Elvis – GG, CCA, Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness, Gina Prince-Blythewood – The Woman King – CCA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale 

    For the past five years in this category, the Critics Choice Awards have either chosen all of the eventual Oscar nominees or four. With that in mind, we can assume that at least four of Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Paul Mescal, Bill Nighy, and Tom Cruise will be nominated. The former three (Farrell, Fraser, and Butler) are essentially locked for nominations at this point as they are far and away the leaders at the critics’ awards in terms of nominations. Which means at a minimum, at least one of Mescal, Nighy, or Cruise will be nominated. Since Bradley Cooper missed a Golden Globe nod in 2014, every eventual Best Actor nominee received a Golden Globe nomination en route to becoming an Oscar nominee (Banderas and Yeun being exceptions as films in contention for the Globes’ foreign language film prize couldn’t make their performances eligible for the lead acting categories until this year). With that in mind, Nighy, Jackman, and Calva are the most likely of the remaining seven Globe nominees to receive a nomination. Since Nighy is the only one with a CCA nod I’ll choose him and since Calva is essentially a newcomer I’ll go with Jackman even though Calva’s film is a much more likely Best Picture nominee. 

    This category often rewards very transformative performances. In just the last few years, we’ve seen Oldman as Churchill, Malek as Freddie Mercury, Phoenix as the Joker, and Smith as Richard Williams all win in this category. Of the three performances that are most likely to win in this category, Fraser’s and Butler’s are the transformative ones, while Farrell’s is relatively understated (and phenomenal). However, Fraser’s The Whale has an incredibly slim chance of receiving a Best Picture nomination  

    The last time a winner in this category has won for a performance in a film not nominated for Best Picture was Jeff Bridges for 2009’s Crazy Heart. This category especially  

    BEST ACTOR 

    Brendan Fraser – The Whale – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical), CCA 

    Austin Butler – Elvis – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Bill Nighy – Living – GG (Drama), CCA 

    Hugh Jackman – The Son – GG (Drama) 

    Could Jump In: Paul Mescal – Aftersun – CCA, Diego Calva – Babylon – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, Adam Driver – White Noise – GG (Comedy/Musical), Daniel Craig – Glass Onion – GG (Comedy/Musical), Song Kang-Ho – Broker 

    The CCA nominees are Blanchett, Yeoh, Deadwyler, Williams, Davis, and Robbie and I think the five eventual Oscar Actress nominees will come from this six. The question is which one of these six will miss. Past history implies that a Globe nod is usually required to be nominated for an Oscar in this category later on (the last time a Best Actress nominee was nominated without a Globe nod was Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years), which would mean Davis and Robbie receiving nominations as Deadwyler was snubbed by the Globes. If Robbie receives a SAG nom I don’t see her missing but until then I’ll stick with Davis and Deadwyler. 

    The biggest mystery with this category is who will end up triumphing between Blanchett and Yeoh. Both are phenomenal and completely deserving. I think Yeoh has the zeitgeist but I feel like Blanchett is responsible for a performance that I believe is more like what Oscar usually rewards in this category. I am going to with Blanchett for now, but I think Yeoh has a 49% chance of winning this at this point, we need the precursors to be sure. 

    BEST ACTRESS 

    Cate Blanchett – Tar – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical) 

    Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Danielle Deadwyler – Till – CCA 

    Viola Davis – The Woman King – CCA, GG (Drama) 

    Could Jump In: Margot Robbie – Babylon – CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Olivia Colman – Empire of Light – GG (Drama), Ana de Armas – Blonde – GG (Drama), Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande – GG (Comedy/Musical), Tang Wei – Decision to Leave, Jennifer Lawrence – Causeway 

    At least three of the Globe nominees will be nominated for the Oscar (most likely) and at least four of the Critics Choice nominees will be nominated for the Oscar. Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are locked as they’ve hit the most precursors by far. Even though Paul Dano surprisingly missed at the Globes, I think he’s pretty much locked as well. I have a feeling either Keoghan or Hirsch (but not both) will be nominated and since Keoghan made both GG and CCA, he seems most poised to be nominated. Whishaw’s role seems like one that is often nominated here and if he gets a SAG nod, he should follow that up with a nod from Oscar as well, but he needs that SAG nod if he even wants that to be a consideration. 

    Though Gleeson has a pretty solid shot at winning this, Quan has won the most critics’ awards by a wide margin and being in what is presumed to be this year’s Best Picture winner can’t hurt him. 

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

    Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Paul Dano – The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Ben Whishaw – Women Talking 

    Could Jump In: Brad Pitt – Babylon – GG, Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans – CCA, Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway – CCA, Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse – GG, Anthony Hopkins – Armageddon Time, Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness, Michael Ward – Empire of Light 

    This is one of the hardest major categories to predict at this point as everything feels so up-in-the-air and no performance seems safe for a nomination except for Kerry Condon. Having watched The Banshees of Inisherin, I can confirm that Condon is fantastic but I’m really not sure her performance is of the kind that the academy likes to award in this category. However, none of the biggest contenders have a performance that traditionally would win in this category, meaning that Condon will be my pick to win it for now (If Michelle Williams was category frauded and entered into Supporting she would’ve taken this easily).  

    Hsu, Curtis, and Buckley are all in likely Best Picture nominees so I’ll go with them as the next three. That leaves the last slot between Chau, Monae, Foy, Mulligan, and Bassett. I don’t see Women Talking getting two of its actresses in so that leaves out Foy. Even though she’s done very well at the precursors I still don’t see a superhero performance getting nominated even if Bassett is deserving. While Monae and Chau are doing very well with the critics’ groups, I think I’m going to go with the twice-nominated Mulligan to receive her third.  

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

    Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – GG 

    Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Jessie Buckley – Women Talking 

    Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG 

    Carey Mulligan – She Said – GG 

    Could Jump In:  Janelle Monae – Glass Onion, Hong Chau – The Whale, Claire Foy – Women Talking, Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness – GG, Nina Hoss – Tar, Thuso Mbedu – The Woman King 

    Either 4 or 5 of the Critics Choice nominees in this category have been nominated for the O. Screenplay Oscar in this category. The first four seem almost locked and the last slot is really between Triangle of Sadness, Aftersun, and Babylon. I’ll go with Cannes winner Triangle of Sadness as it has been giving attention in other categories such as Director and Supporting Actress and this seems like the best place for the fans of the film in the Academy to award it.  

    While I think Everything Everywhere All at Once will take this if Spielberg ends up winning Director, McDonagh has won the most critics awards so far and I give him a 50.1% chance of taking this.  

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG, CCA 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA 

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Tar – GG, CCA 

    Triangle of Sadness 

    Could Jump In: Aftersun – CCA, Babylon, The Menu, Elvis, Nope 

    Women Talking is most likely going to take this and I think Polley’s screenplay and Glass Onion are pretty much locked here for nominations. Living is a screenplay written by legendary author Kazuo Ichiguro adapting one of the most important films of the 50s: Kurosawa’s Ikiru. If that’s not screenplay branch bait, I don’t know what is. White Noise is Noah Baumbach’s adaptation of the seminal Don DeLillo novel and I think it has a great chance of being a spoiler contender come nominations morning. 

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 

    Women Talking – GG, CCA 

    Glass Onion – CCA 

    The Whale – CCA 

    Living – CCA 

    White Noise 

    Could Jump In: She Said – CCA, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Son, Bones and All 

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 

    Pinocchio – GG, CCA 

    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – GG, CCA 

    Turning Red – GG, CCA 

    Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – GG, CCA 

    Apollo 10 1/2 

    Could Jump In: Wendell & Wild – CCA, My Father’s Dragon, Strange World, Inu-Oh – GG, Apollo 10 ½, Lightyear 

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    Avatar 2 – CCA 

    Could Jump In: Glass Onion, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, All Quiet on the Western Front 

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Avatar 2: The Way of the Water – CCA 

    The Fabelmans – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    Empire of Light – CCA 

    Could Jump In: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tar – CCA  

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    The Woman King – CCA 

    Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris 

    Could Jump In: Corsage, Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion – CCA, Living 

    BEST FILM EDITING 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Fabelmans 

    Could Jump In: Avatar 2 – CCA, The Banshees of Inisherin, Tar – CCA 

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

    The Whale – CCA 

    Elvis – CCA 

    Babylon – CCA 

    The Batman – CCA 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    Could Jump In: Black Panther 2 – CCA, Blonde, Crimes of the Future 

    BEST SOUND 

    Top Gun: Maverick 

    Avatar 2 

    Elvis 

    All Quiet on the Western Front 

    Everything Everywhere All at Once 

    Could Jump In: Babylon, The Batman, Black Panther 2 

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

    Avatar 2 – CCA 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA 

    The Batman – CCA 

    Nope 

    Could Jump In: Doctor Strange 2, All Quiet on the Western Front, Jurassic World: Dominion 

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 

    The Fabelmans – GG, CCA 

    Babylon – GG, CCA 

    Women Talking – GG, CCA 

    Pinocchio – GG, CCA 

    The Banshees of Inisherin – GG 

    Could Jump In: The Woman King, Black Panther 2, All Quiet on the Western Front 

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG 

    RRR – CCA, GG 

    Pinocchio – CCA, GG 

    Black Panther 2 – CCA, GG 

    Top Gun: Maverick – CCA, GG 

    Where the Crawdads Sing – CCA, GG 

    Could Jump In: Till, Tell it Like a Woman, White Noise – CCA (My favorite by far!) 

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE 

    Decision to Leave – CCA, GG 

    All Quiet on the Western Front – GG 

    Close – CCA, GG 

    Argentina, 1985 – CCA, GG 

    Saint Omer 

    Could Jump In: Bardo – CCA, EO, Return to Seoul, Holy Spider, Corsage 

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 

    Fire of Love 

    All That Breathes 

    Navalny 

    Descendant 

    Could Jump In: The Territory, Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe, The Janes 

  • Sorry White People, RRR Isn’t as Great as You Think

    Sorry White People, RRR Isn’t as Great as You Think

    By Arman Saxena

    With its Best Picture nomination at the Critics’ Choice Awards, S.S. Rajamouli’s RRR is officially a top 12 Oscar Best Picture contender and I personally have it at my number nine slot, meaning I believe it will receive a nomination. Still, I have been very bearish on RRR’s chances this year, admittedly due to my own views about the film’s quality, in addition to reservations about whether such a bombastic and unabashedly ridiculous action picture would appeal to the Academy. But those concerns are likely foundationless as the Academy, as it is now, is dramatically less averse to genre cinema than it has been in years past, as has been shown by Everything Everywhere All at Once’s success and by the recent success of genre films like Black Panther, Get Out, The Shape of Water, and Joker. All these films had elements that implied that they were greater than their genre trappings would suggest. Those touting RRR as one of the best of the year claim the same thing, that it is a passionate anti-colonialist and anti-caste statement, utterly unique in the realm of Telugu and Indian blockbusters. But those claims, frankly, have many holes.

    When it comes to social commentary, the primary buzzword I’ve heard concerning RRR is “anti-colonialist”, so let’s examine the extent to whether the film is anti-colonialist in any meaningful way. Are RRR’s villains British colonials? Yes, and they are one-dimensional caricatures at that, portraying the British as cartoonish yet uniformly ruthless (with the character of Jenny being the sole exception). But even though the British are shown clearly as racist oppressors, does the film present any position or display anything specific about the effects of colonialism in particular? I did not see any. While the film relishes in scenes of Indian-on-British colonist carnage, (some of which is admittedly incredibly satisfying) there is essentially nothing in it that seems specific to colonialism; the film instead depicts two heroes battling against a cartoonishly generic evil empire. Just because it contains anti-colonial violence from the story’s heroes does not mean the film does anything for it to be considered that it is promoting any sort of ideology surrounding anti-colonialism. While shots like the villainous Governor Scott’s blood splattering on “the sun never sets on the British empire” were cinematic touches that I enjoyed, the film says practically nothing about colonialism beyond the simplistic assertion that it was immoral and inhumane, which is expected from a mainstream Indian blockbuster but not from a film being touted for its so-called anti-colonialism.

    In addition to being praised as anti-colonialist, RRR has also been praised as a staunch rejection of the caste system through the character of Bheem. Bheem is a member of the Gond tribe and after a Gond child Malli is kidnapped by British colonials, he vows to return her to her family no matter what it takes. Bheem is depicted as kind, gentle and capable, and initially seems like an equal to Raju, an officer in the Indian Imperial Police. While we learn later that Raju also comes from a village background, he has received Western academic, social, and linguistic education as a part of becoming an officer. He is ruthless like the British, his introductory scene featuring the officer confidently fending off hundreds of pro-independence protesters singlehandedly. As the more “westernized” of the two men it is refreshing to see them depicted as equals, however, this changes as the film goes on. When it is revealed that Raju is actually a double agent, infiltrating the British police in order to supply arms to his village, the film associates Raju with the Hindu god Ram (his love interest is even named Sita). Once Raju is connected to Ram he essentially becomes a god-like being, no longer an equal to Bheem. This idea is conveyed most convincingly in one of the film’s final scenes, where Raju asks Bheem to allow him to grant a wish for him. The wide-eyed Bheem asks Raju to provide education for him and his people, cementing the unbalanced power dynamic between the two. By situating Bheem on a level lower than Raju, the film can’t be called anti-caste as it undercuts its initial promise to situate Bheem as Raju‘s equal. 

    ‘RRR’ (Netflix)

    The closest the film comes to a political statement is in the final musical sequence (“Sholay”), which plays as a celebration of the leaders of the Indian independence movement. This sequence features many famous figures of India’s anti-colonial history including Subhas Chandra Bose, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, Bhagat Singh, Rani of Jhansi and Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj. What’s notable about this list is that only Hindu leaders are mentioned (with Bhagat Singh, born to Sikh parents, who later converted to atheism, being the sole exception). There are also many important figures notably absent such as Jawarhlal Nehru, B.R. Ambedkar, and the Father of the Nation himself Mahatma Gandhi. What do these figures all have in common other than being some of the most prominent Indian nationalists, they were pro-religious toleration and anti-caste system. It almost seems as if the filmmakers found these leaders’ religious toleration objectionable but were able to accept Subhas Chandra Bose’s alignment with Nazi Germany. Moreover, the complete erasure of Muslim Indian nationalists such as Maulana Azad from the discussion of Indian freedom fighters, while not unexpected, is disappointing. With India’s prime minister Narendra Modi forcing Hindu nationalist principles into Indian policy, (see: Citizenship Amendment Bill) these exclusions are unsurprising as other choices could cause Rajamouli’s film to receive the ire of the government in an India that is moving further and further away from being a free country. 

    But what is surprising is that a film that does absolutely nothing progressive in terms of the contemporary sociopolitical context of India is widely being touted as salient social commentary by Western audiences. That, to me, is incredibly frustrating and is the main reason I wrote this piece. Mainstream Indian cinema is, for the most part, inextricably tied to the agenda of the government as films that the Hindu nationalist majority believes go against their worldview and beliefs are protested, review-bombed on sites like IMDb, and end up underperforming at the box office. Almost solely through streaming platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime can politically diverse mainstream Indian films and television be made. We are seeing an India where a Hindu propaganda film, literally government-endorsed, like The Kashmir Files (yes, the massacre and forced exile of Kashmiri Pandits did occur but is the film completely unnuanced and Islamophobic? also yes) can become a nationwide success. Now at this point you may ask, what does all of this have to do with RRR? Well, I believe understanding the context of the state of mainstream Indian cinema is integral to understanding why I scoff at any assertion that the film can be considered ideologically progressive in any way. I wouldn’t go as far to say the film is propaganda, pro-caste, or anti-Muslim but in today’s India, Rajamouli’s film says absolutely nothing as a social drama.

    Now, discussing whether the film contributes anything artistically to the canon of Indian blockbuster cinema may seem trivial compared to the discussion of social commentary in the paragraphs above. However, I still want to judge the film on artistic merits as well so bear with me. As a child of Indian immigrants, (one from the Telugu-speaking state of Andhra Pradesh and the other from Hindi-speaking Uttar Pradesh) I grew up on the milieu of popular spectacles that were Bollywood masala fare and the Tollywood action musicals of stars like Mahesh Babu, Samantha, Pawan Kalyan, and Trisha. As a result, RRR comes from a genre I am familiar with. For the most part, Rajamouli’s film doesn’t really deviate much from the usual formula of these films. The sheer spectacle that’s been praised by many is something that is relatively commonplace in Indian cinema. The films that made Rajamouli a household name across the entire subcontinent were the two Baahubali films and from the perspective of spectacle, RRR does very little that those films do not. Both RRR and the Baahubali films contain high-octane, slow-motion heavy action sequences, in-your-face and stylish cinematography, and ridiculous scenes featuring CGI animals. However, these elements are not exclusive to Rajamouli’s films, blockbuster Indian cinema throughout the continent is littered with these features. When I came into RRR in June hearing all the positivity surrounding it, I assumed Rajamouli wouldn’t waste the biggest budget ever for an Indian film and would go all out. After finishing it, I was honestly disappointed by how reliant Rajamouli was on the usual tropes and fixtures of Indian and Telugu cinema. Just this year, Mani Ratnam came out with his first film in four years “Ponniyin Selvan: Part 1”, which like RRR is a big-budget period action-adventure extravaganza filled with energetic spectacle. Yet Ratnam’s film is more interesting as while it also adheres to many of the tropes seen throughout blockbuster Indian cinema, Ratnam imbues the film with a visual verve that gives the film its own distinct signature. In my eyes, the majority of RRR is stylistically indistinguishable from many other mainstream Indian blockbusters (though again the film boasts some elements that are definitely exceptions to this).

    Still, RRR in many ways is a beacon of hope for the future, a future where non-Western cinema and specifically Indian cinema can be acknowledged widely by Western audiences as great filmmaking. Yet, the film is not the best Indian cinema has to offer, and in just the last few years Super Deluxe (Tamil), Kumbalangi Nights (Malayalam), Visaranai (Tamil), R.I.P. (Malayalam), Village Rockstars (Assamese), Article 15 (Hindi), The Disciple (Marathi) have proven just that. As an Indian-American, I am ecstatic to see an Indian film so widely-seen by general American audiences (and Netflix is in large part to thank for that), I only wish it was a film that was more deserving of that attention, one that better represented the rollicking, inventive entertainment and insightful commentary that the best of Indian cinema can offer. I am incredibly happy to see a film primarily in an Indian language be a likely Best Picture contender, and part of me wants to root for it solely on those grounds but I can’t help but return to the film’s wide variety of issues. Still, I am hopeful. RRR becoming the massive phenomenon it is, will open doors for other Indian cinema to receive Western acclaim as many will seek out other films like it. It cannot be understated how significant RRR’s success is for Indian cinema as a whole and I appreciate that. Now, hopefully, that exposure will help more deserving Indian films receive that attention.

  • Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ Leads With 14, ‘She Said’ Misses in All but Screenplay

    Critics Choice Nominations: ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ Leads With 14, ‘She Said’ Misses in All but Screenplay

    With the Critics Choice Awards coming through with their nominations this morning, we now have the penultimate piece of the puzzle (other than the Producers Guild Awards which will release on January 12th) when it comes to the Best Picture nomination slate. At this point, ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’, ‘The Fabelmans’, ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’, ‘Tar’, ‘Babylon’, ‘Women Talking’, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’, and ‘Elvis’ are all essentially locked for nominations. ‘Glass Onion’, ‘Avatar’, and ‘RRR’ were also given nods, while other films on the cusp like ‘She Said, ‘The Woman King’, ‘Till’, ‘The Whale’ and ‘Triangle of Sadness’ missed the cut. In my eyes, ‘She Said’, a film that I had predicted for a Best Picture nod up to this point, now needs a PGA nod to stay in the slate. At this point, my picks for which films will fill the remaining two slots in Best Picture are ‘Avatar: The Way of the Water’ and ‘RRR’ (though Aftersun also has a pretty good chance of taking this tenth slot).

    Here are Critics Choice’s nominees:

    BEST PICTURE

    “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    “Babylon”
    “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    “Elvis”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “The Fabelmans”
    “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    “RRR”
    “Tár”
    “Top Gun: Maverick”
    “Women Talking”

    BEST ACTOR

    Austin Butler – “Elvis”
    Tom Cruise – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Colin Farrell – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Brendan Fraser – “The Whale”
    Paul Mescal – “Aftersun”
    Bill Nighy – “Living”

    BEST ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – “Tár”
    Viola Davis – “The Woman King”
    Danielle Deadwyler – “Till”
    Margot Robbie – “Babylon”
    Michelle Williams – “The Fabelmans”
    Michelle Yeoh – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Paul Dano – “The Fabelmans”
    Brendan Gleeson – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Judd Hirsch – “The Fabelmans”
    Barry Keoghan – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Ke Huy Quan – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Brian Tyree Henry – “Causeway”

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Angela Bassett – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    Jessie Buckley – “Women Talking”
    Kerry Condon – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Jamie Lee Curtis – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Stephanie Hsu – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Janelle Monáe – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”

    BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

    Frankie Corio – “Aftersun”
    Jalyn Hall – “Till”
    Gabriel LaBelle – “The Fabelmans”
    Bella Ramsey – “Catherine Called Birdy”
    Banks Repeta – “Armageddon Time”
    Sadie Sink – “The Whale”

    BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

    “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “The Fabelmans”
    “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    “The Woman King”
    “Women Talking”

    BEST DIRECTOR

    James Cameron – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Damien Chazelle – “Babylon”
    Todd Field – “Tár”
    Baz Luhrmann – “Elvis”
    Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”
    Gina Prince-Bythewood – “The Woman King”
    S. S. Rajamouli – “RRR”
    Steven Spielberg – “The Fabelmans”

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Todd Field – “Tár”
    Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Martin McDonagh – “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner – “The Fabelmans”
    Charlotte Wells – “Aftersun”

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Samuel D. Hunter – “The Whale”
    Kazuo Ishiguro – “Living”
    Rian Johnson – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    Rebecca Lenkiewicz – “She Said”
    Sarah Polley – “Women Talking”

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Russell Carpenter – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Roger Deakins – “Empire of Light”
    Florian Hoffmeister – “Tár”
    Janusz Kaminski – “The Fabelmans”
    Claudio Miranda – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Linus Sandgren – “Babylon”

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Hannah Beachler, Lisa K. Sessions – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    Rick Carter, Karen O’Hara – “The Fabelmans”
    Dylan Cole, Ben Procter, Vanessa Cole – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Jason Kisvarday, Kelsi Ephraim – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn – “Elvis”
    Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino – “Babylon”

    BEST EDITING

    Tom Cross – “Babylon”
    Eddie Hamilton – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    Stephen Rivkin, David Brenner, John Refoua, James Cameron – “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    Paul Rogers – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Matt Villa, Jonathan Redmond – “Elvis”
    Monika Willi – “Tár”

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ruth E. Carter – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    Jenny Eagan – “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    Shirley Kurata – “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    Catherine Martin – “Elvis”
    Gersha Phillips – “The Woman King”
    Mary Zophres – “Babylon”

    BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP

    “Babylon”
    “The Batman”
    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    “Elvis”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “The Whale”

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    “Avatar: The Way of Water”
    “The Batman”
    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “RRR”
    “Top Gun: Maverick”

    BEST COMEDY

    “The Banshees of Inisherin”
    “Bros”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
    “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”
    “Triangle of Sadness”
    “The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent”

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
    “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
    “Turning Red”
    “Wendell & Wild”

    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

    “All Quiet on the Western Front”
    “Argentina, 1985”
    “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
    “Close”
    “Decision to Leave”
    “RRR”

    BEST SONG

    “Carolina” – “Where the Crawdads Sing”
    “Ciao Papa” – “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    “Hold My Hand” – “Top Gun: Maverick”
    “Lift Me Up” – “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
    “Naatu Naatu” – “RRR”
    “New Body Rhumba” – “White Noise”

    BEST SCORE

    Alexandre Desplat – “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
    Michael Giacchino – “The Batman”
    Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Tár”
    Hildur Guðnadóttir – “Women Talking”
    Justin Hurwitz – “Babylon”
    John Williams – “The Fabelmans”

  • Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Everything Everywhere All at Once Will Win Best Picture

    Since 2015, when Todd McCarthy’s Spotlight won Best Picture, there has been a constant among the films the Academy has awarded with their highest honor: a sociocultural awareness. This is not to say the Academy’s desire to choose a socially aware film to represent what they believe to be the best of the year is new, far from it. In 1968, a famously landmark year for American political activism that saw major leaps in the public consciousness’ awareness of movements promoting anti-war sentiment, civil rights, women’s rights, LGBTQ rights, etc., the Sidney Poitier-starring In the Heat of the Night was declared the Academy’s winner. It’s no accident that a film featuring a white and Black man working together to solve a murder case in a racist contemporary Mississippi town won in a year where societal cognizance about injustices towards minority and marginalized groups was at a peak. All of this is to say that when political passion is at a high, Academy members do tend to lean towards media that they feel reflects and/or represents the sociocultural awareness they want to see.  

    Now for almost a decade, American culture has experienced an incredible amount of political passion and polarization and while this politicization has seen highs and lows during this timeframe, it has consistently been higher during this period than it has been in around 50 years. What this means is that the Academy choosing films like Spotlight (a film that celebrates journalists by telling the story of the intrepid Boston Globe reporters who uncovered widespread sex abuse among clergy in the Boston area), Moonlight (a coming-of-age story charting the early life of a young gay, Black man dealing with his identity), The Shape of Water (a love story between a deaf woman and a fish man, conveying the message that everybody deserves love no matter how different they seem), Green Book (a buddy film telling the story of an Italian-American bouncer hired to drive an African-American pianist on his tour of the South), Parasite (an examination of class discrimination through the lens of a home invasion thriller), Nomadland (a film that tells the story of a woman who, after losing everything in the Great Recession, becomes a nomad), and CODA (the story of a deaf family and their daughter who works to pursue her passion for music) is telling. Now I don’t enjoy reducing these films to these short descriptions because the majority of them are fantastic works of art that transcend these easy attempts to identify what they’re about, but I only hope to illustrate that they all share a level of consciousness over contemporary sociocultural issues. 

    This trend shows no signs of stopping anytime soon and therefore we must consider this factor when prognosticating our Best Picture winner. At this point in the season, we’ve established that our three frontrunners are Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and The Banshees of Inisherin. These films have appeared at all the major precursors, they all have the Golden Globe nomination trifecta, and have found success with the critics’ groups. However, in my eyes, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack. Both The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin don’t explicitly deal with any major sociocultural dilemma while EEAAO tackles themes of generational trauma and the experiences of immigrants (and their children) in America. On top of that, the film is probably one of the biggest word-of-mouth successes of the year and has sustained its momentum all the way from its original theatrical release in March. 

    Some may say that the old guard of the Academy won’t go for a film as wacky, deeply genre, and/or crude as EEAAO. But if the success of films like The Shape of Water, Get Out, and Parasite have shown anything it’s that these elements are not as much of a detriment in the eyes of the Academy as they used to be. If a film is beloved enough, which EEAAO most definitely is, it forgoes the need to conform to many of the traditional markings of a Best Picture winner. In my view, the film has the perfect cocktail of qualities on its side and doesn’t seem to be stopping anytime soon. Don’t be surprised to see the Daniels and the rest of their team on the stage waving that little gold man at the end of Oscar night. 

  • Golden Globes Nominations 2023: ‘Banshees’ Leads With 8, ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘Fabelmans’ Cement Themselves as the Frontrunners

    Golden Globes Nominations 2023: ‘Banshees’ Leads With 8, ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘Fabelmans’ Cement Themselves as the Frontrunners

    The Golden Globes released their slate of nominees this morning, shedding further light on what to expect this awards season. One thing I always mention when the Golden Globe noms are released is the stat that in the last 10 years (in all years except the most recent), the eventual Best Picture winner was nominated for a Best Film, Director, and Screenplay award at the Globes before going on to win Oscar’s biggest prize.

    This year, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, and Banshees of Inisherin received that nomination trifecta, cementing those films as the three biggest players of the season. The former pair will likely be the two biggest frontrunners and I predict EEAAO will end up winning it all in the end.

    Another stat I want to mention is that in the last ten years, at least four of the five nominees in Best Film – Drama went on to earn Best Picture nominations later on in their respective years. That means that at most one of Avatar 2, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tar, and Top Gun: Maverick won’t make the slate. I think that film is most likely to be Avatar 2 (my current BP slate being EEAAO, The Fabelmans, ‘Banshees’, Tar, Women Talking, Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, She Said). However, there is also a pretty good chance that all the films nominated here will make it in, hopefully the CCA nominations coming out on Wednesday will provide another piece of the puzzle.

    Here are the 2023 Golden Globe nominees:

    Film

    Best Picture (Drama)

    • Avatar: The Way of Water
    • Elvis
    • The Fabelmans
    • Tar
    • Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

    • Babylon
    • The Banshees of Inisherin
    • Everything Everywhere All at Once
    • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
    • Triangle of Sadness

    Best Animated Film

    • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
    • Inu-Oh
    • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
    • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
    • Turning Red

    Best Picture (Non-English Language)

    • All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
    • Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
    • Close (Belgium)
    • Decision to Leave (South Korea)
    • RRR (India)

    Best Actress (Drama)

    • Cate Blanchett (Tar)
    • Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
    • Viola Davis (The Woman King)
    • Ana de Armas (Blonde)
    • Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

    Best Actor (Drama)

    • Austin Butler (Elvis)
    • Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
    • Hugh Jackman (The Son)
    • Bill Nighy (Living)
    • Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

    • Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
    • Margot Robbie (Babylon)
    • Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)
    • Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)
    • Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

    • Diego Calva (Babylon)
    • Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
    • Adam Driver (White Noise)
    • Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

    Best Supporting Actress

    • Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
    • Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    • Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
    • Carey Mulligan (She Said)

    Best Supporting Actor

    • Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Brad Pitt (Babylon)
    • Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    • Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

    Best Director

    • James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
    • Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    • Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
    • Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    • Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

    Best Screenplay

    • The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
    • Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
    • The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner
    • Tar, Todd Field
    • Women Talking, Sarah Polley

    Best Original Score

    • Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
    • The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
    • The Fabelmans, John Williams
    • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Alexandre Desplat
    • Women Talking, Hildur Guðnadóttir

    Best Original Song

    • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler
    • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro
    • RRR, “Naatu Naatu” by Kala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj
    • Top Gun: Maverick, “Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga, Bloodpop, Benjamin Rice
    • Where the Crawdads Sing, “Carolina” by Taylor Swift

    TV

    Best Drama Series

    • Better Call Saul
    • The Crown
    • House of the Dragon
    • Ozark
    • Severance

    Best Musical or Comedy Series

    • Abbott Elementary
    • The Bear
    • Hacks
    • Only Murders in the Building
    • Wednesday

    Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie

    • Black Bird
    • Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
    • The Dropout
    • Pam and Tommy
    • The White Lotus

    Best Actress (Drama)

    • Emma D’Arcy (House of the Dragon)
    • Laura Linney (Ozark)
    • Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
    • Hilary Swank (Alaska Daily)
    • Zendaya (Euphoria)

    Best Actor (Drama)

    • Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
    • Kevin Costner (Yellowstone)
    • Diego Luna (Andor)
    • Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
    • Adam Scott (Severance)

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

    • Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
    • Kaley Cuoco (The Flight Attendant)
    • Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building)
    • Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
    • Jean Smart (Hacks)

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

    • Donald Glover (Atlanta)
    • Bill Hader (Barry)
    • Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
    • Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
    • Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

    Best Supporting Actress (Musical, Comedy or Drama)

    • Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
    • Hannah Einbinder (Hacks)
    • Julia Garner (Ozark)
    • Janelle James (Abbott Elementary)
    • Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary)

    Best Supporting Actor (Musical, Comedy or Drama)

    • John Lithgow (The Old Man)
    • Jonathan Pryce (The Crown)
    • John Turturro (Severance)
    • Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary)
    • Henry Winkler (Barry)

    Best Actress (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy)
    • Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
    • Lily James (Pam and Tommy)
    • Julia Roberts (Gaslit)
    • Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)

    Best Actor (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
    • Colin Firth (The Staircase)
    • Andrew Garfield (Under the Banner of Heaven)
    • Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    • Sebastian Stan (Pam and Tommy)

    Best Supporting Actress (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
    • Claire Danes (Fleishman Is in Trouble)
    • Daisy Edgar-Jones (Under the Banner of Heaven)
    • Niecy Nash (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    • Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)

    Best Supporting Actor (Limited Series, Anthology Series or TV Movie)

    • F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus)
    • Domhnall Gleeson (The Patient)
    • Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
    • Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    • Seth Rogen (Pam and Tommy)

    Source: CNET

  • AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

    AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

    The AFI awards are announced over a month before nominations are released yet are consistently one of the most consistently strong predictors of the Best Picture slate. Last year, Drive My Car was the only Best Picture nominee that didn’t appear in AFI’s slate and in the last seven years, in a single year, a max of two films have made Best Picture without hitting AFI. That trend shows no signs of stopping and with that, here is AFI’s slate.

    AFI Movies of the Year

    • “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
    • “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Nope” (Universal Pictures)
    • “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Tár” (Focus Features)
    • “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    • “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
    • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

    AFI Television Programs of the Year

    • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    • “The Bear” (FX)
    • “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Mo” (Netflix)
    • “Pachinko” (Apple TV+)
    • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
    • “Severance” (Apple TV+)
    • “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

    AFI Special Award

    • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

    Source: Variety

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2022 – 9 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Drive My Car)
    • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • Drive My Car – none
    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    It seems likely that around 2 to 4 of the 11 films chosen by AFI (including The Banshees of Inisherin’s Special Award), and if four films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nope, Avatar: The Way of the Water, The Woman King, and She Said.

  • National Board of Review Releases Their Top 10; ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Film

    National Board of Review Releases Their Top 10; ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ Named Best Film

    ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ won its first major award and the second major critics award of the year (after Tar won NYFCC on December 2nd). Claudio Miranda also picked up his second major cinematography prize after starting the season by triumphing at NYFCC. Both my top frontrunners (Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans) both made the cut, cementing their place as the top of this year’s contenders.

    The Banshees of Inisherin also performed well, winning for both its stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson (in Best Actor and Supporting Actor respectively) and in Original Screenplay. ‘Banshees’, along with Women Talking and NYFCC winner Tar (which did not make the cut here) round out the top five strongest players.

    NBR is our first semi-strong predictor of the Best Picture nominee slate, here is its track record in the past 10 years:

    2012 — 7/9
    2013 — 5/9
    2014 — 4/8
    2015 — 5/8
    2016 — 7/9
    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
    2018 — 4/8
    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
    2020 — 5/8                                                                                                                                                                                       2021 – 7/10

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Here are the National Board of Review’s 2022 honorees:

    Best Film
    Top Gun: Maverick

    Best Director
    Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

    Best Actor
    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Actress
    Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Best Supporting Actor
    Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Supporting Actress
    Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    Best Original Screenplay
    Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front

    Breakthrough Performance
    Danielle Deadwyler, Till

    Breakthrough Performance
    Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

    Best Directorial Debut
    Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

    Best Animated Feature
    Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

    Best International Film
    Close

    Best Documentary
    Sr.

    Best Ensemble
    Women Talking

    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography
    Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

    NBR Freedom of Expression Awards

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    Argentina, 1985

    Top Films (in alphabetical order):

    Aftersun

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    Everything Everywhere All at Once

    The Fabelmans

    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

    RRR

    Till

    The Woman King

    Women Talking

    Top 5 International Films (in alphabetical order)

    All Quiet on the Western Front

    Argentina, 1985

    Decision to Leave

    EO

    Saint Omer

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)

    All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

    All That Breathes

    Descendant

    Turn Every Page – The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb

    Wildcat

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)

    Armageddon Time

    Emily the Criminal

    The Eternal Daughter

    Funny Pages

    The Inspection

    Living

    A Love Song

    Nanny

    The Wonder

    To Leslie

    Source: Deadline

     

    Based on NBR’s track record, we can assume that it’s pretty likely that at least 6 of the 11 films picked by NBR will go on to become Best Picture nominees. In my mind, this is the list of NBR’s top eleven films in order of their likelihood to get a BP nomination: Everything Everywhere All at Once (my predicted winner at this stage), The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking, Top Gun: Maverick, Glass Onion, Till, Aftersun, The Woman King, Avatar: The Way of the Water, RRR.

    With AFI coming out with its list tomorrow, Oscar season is truly coming into full swing!

  • My 200(ish) Favorite Shots of All-Time

    My 200(ish) Favorite Shots of All-Time

    Even though I wasn’t able to choose only one shot from these movies I wanted to recognize the cinematography of ‘Far From Heaven’, ‘The Thin Red Line’, ‘All That Heaven Allows’, ‘Blood and Black Lace’, ‘The Umbrellas of Cherbourg’, and ‘Goodbye, Dragon Inn’ as fantastic

    The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari (1920)

    ‘The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari’

    Director: Robert Wiene

    Cinematographer: Willy Hameister

    Faust (1926)

    ‘Faust’ (Universum Film)

    Director: F.W. Murnau

    Cinematographer: Carl Hoffmann

    The General (1926)

    ‘The General’ (United Artists)

    Director: Buster Keaton and Clyde Bruckman

    Cinematographer: Bert Haines and Devereaux Jennings

    Metropolis (1927)

    Director: Fritz Lang

    Cinematographer: Karl Freund. Gunther Rittau, Walter Ruttman

    Earth (1930)

    ‘Earth’ (Amkino)

    Director: Aleksandr Dovzhenko

    Cinematographer: Daniil Demutsky

    M (1931)

    ‘M’ (Vereinigte)

    Director: Fritz Lang

    Wooden Crosses (1932)

    ‘Wooden Crosses’ (Pathe-Natan)

    Gone With the Wind (1939)

    ‘Gone With The Wind’ (MGM)

    The Long Voyage Home (1940)

    ‘The Long Voyage Home’ (United Artists)

    Citizen Kane (1941)

    ‘Citizen Kane’ (RKO Radio)

    Director: Orson Welles

    Cinematographer: Gregg Toland

    Casablanca (1942)

    ‘Casablanca’ (Warner Bros.)

    Day of Wrath (1943)

    ‘Day of Wrath’ (Palladium)

    The Gang’s All Here (1943)

    ‘The Gang’s All Here’ (20th Century Fox)

    Leave Her to Heaven (1945)

    ‘Leave Her to Heaven’ (20th Century Fox)

    Black Narcissus (1947)

    ‘Black Narcissus’ (GFD)

    Macbeth (1948)

    The Third Man (1949)

    Singin’ in the Rain (1952)

    ‘Singin in the Rain’ (MGM)

    Ugetsu (1953)

    ‘Ugetsu’ (Daiei)

    The Night of the Hunter (1955)

    ‘The Night of the Hunter’ (United Artists)

    Pather Panchali (1955)

    ‘Pather Panchali’ (Curzon)

    The Searchers (1956)

    ‘The Searchers’ (Warner Bros.)

    Funny Face (1957)

    ‘Funny Face’ (Paramount)

    Vertigo (1958)

    ‘Vertigo’ (Paramount)
    ‘Vertigo’ (Paramount)

    Black Sunday (1960)

    ‘Black Sunday’ (Unidis)

    La Dolce Vita (1960)

    ‘La Dolce Vita’ (Cineriz)

    Letter Never Sent (1960)

    ‘Letter Never Sent’ (Mosfilm)

    Macario (1960)

    ‘Macario’ (Azteca)

    Psycho (1960)

    ‘Psycho’ (Paramount)

    The Virgin Spring (1960)

    ‘The Virgin Spring’ (SF-Produktion)

    La Notte (1961)

    ‘La Notte’ (United Artists)

    Ivan’s Childhood (1962)

    ‘Ivan’s Childhood’ (Mosfilm)

    8 1/2 (1963)

    ‘8 1/2’ (Cineriz)

    The Leopard (1963)

    ‘The Leopard’ (Titanus)

    Dr. Strangelove Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)

    ‘Dr. Strangelove Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb’ (Columbia)

    Kwaidan (1964)

    ‘Kwaidan’ (Toho)
    ‘Kwaidan’ (Toho)

    Soy Cuba (1964)

    ‘Soy Cuba’ (Mosfilm)

    Doctor Zhivago (1965)

    ‘Doctor Zhivago’ (MGM)

    The Sound of Music (1965)

    ‘The Sound of Music’ (20th Century Fox)

    The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (1966)

    ‘The Good, the Bad and the Ugly’ (PEA)

    Persona (1966)

    ‘Persona’ (Svensk)

    Cool Hand Luke (1967)

    Marketa Lazarova (1967)

    ‘Marketa Lazarova’ (Barrandov)

    2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)

    “2001: A Space Odyssey” (MGM)
    “2001: A Space Odyssey” (MGM)

    The Conformist (1970)

    ‘The Conformist’ ()

    A Clockwork Orange (1971)

    ‘A Clockwork Orange’ (Warner Bros.)

    Dirty Harry (1971)

    ‘Dirty Harry’ (Warner Bros.)

    Walkabout (1971)

    ‘Walkabout’ (20th Century Fox)

    Cries and Whispers (1972)

    ‘Cries and Whispers’ (Svensk)

    The Godfather (1972)

    ‘The Godfather’ (Paramount)

    The Mechanic (1972)

    ‘The Mechanic’ (1972)

    Solaris (1972)

    ‘Solaris’ (Mosfilm)
    ‘Solaris’ (Mosfilm)

    The Exorcist (1973)

    ‘The Exorcist’ (Warner Bros.)

    The Holy Mountain (1973)

    ‘The Holy Mountain’ (ABKCO)

    Barry Lyndon (1975)

    ‘Barry Lyndon’ (Warner Bros.)
    ‘Barry Lyndon’ (Warner Bros.)

    The Mirror (1975)

    ‘The Mirror’ ()

    My American Friend (1977)

    ‘The American Friend’ (Cinegate)

    Star Wars (1977)

    See the source image
    ‘Star Wars’ (20th Century Fox)

    Suspiria (1977)

    ‘Suspiria’ (Seda Spettacoli)

    Days of Heaven (1978)

    ‘Days of Heaven’ ()

    The Deer Hunter (1978)

    ‘The Deer Hunter’ (Universal)

    Alien (1979)

    ‘Alien’ (20th Century Fox)

    Apocalypse Now (1979)

    ‘Apocalypse Now’ (United Artists)

    Mad Max (1979)

    ‘Mad Max’ (Roadshow)

    Manhattan (1979)

    ‘Manhattan’ (United Artists)

    Stalker (1979)

    ‘Stalker’ (Mosfilm)

    Raging Bull (1980)

    ‘Raging Bull’ (United Artists)

    The Shining (1980)

    ‘The Shining’ (Warner Bros.)
    ‘The Shining’ (Warner Bros.)

    The Empire Strikes Back (1980)

    ‘Empire Strikes Back’ (20th Century Fox)
    ‘Empire Strikes Back’ (20th Century Fox)

    Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)

    ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark’ (Paramount)

    E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982)

    ‘E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial’ (Universal)

    Once Upon a Time in America (1984)

    ‘Once Upon a Time in America’ (Warner Bros.)The Princess Bride (1987)

    Paris, Texas (1984)

    ‘Paris, Texas’ (20th Century Fox)

    Blue Velvet (1986)

    ‘Blue Velvet’ (DEG)

    Manhunter (1986)

    ‘Manhunter’ (DEG)

    Mirch Masala (1986)

    ‘Mirch Masala’ (NFDC)

    The Princess Bride (1987)

    ‘The Princess Bride’ (20th Century Fox)

    Wings of Desire (1987)

    ‘Wings of Desire’ (Orion)

    Akira (1988)

    ‘Akira’ (Toho)

    Grave of the Fireflies (1988)

    ‘Grave of the Fireflies’ (Studio Ghibli)
    ‘Grave of the Fireflies’ (Studio Ghibli)

    My Neighbor Totoro (1988)

    ‘My Neighbor Totoro’ (Studio Ghibli)

    Dreams (1990)

    ‘Dreams’ (Warner Bros.)

    Goodfellas (1990)

    ‘Goodfellas’ (Warner Bros.)

    Miller’s Crossing (1990)

    ‘Miller’s Crossing’ (20th Century Fox)

    Raise the Red Lantern (1991)

    ‘Raise the Red Lantern’ (Momentum)

    Terminator 2: Judgement Day (1991)

    ‘Terminator 2: Judgement Day’ (Tristar)

    Thelma + Louise (1991)

    ‘Thelma and Louise’ (MGM)

    Bram Stoker’s Dracula (1992)

    ‘Bram Stoker’s Dracula’ (Columbia)

    Jurassic Park (1993)

    ‘Jurassic Park’ (Universal)

    The Nightmare Before Christmas (1993)

    ‘The Nightmare Before Christmas’ (Disney/Touchstone)

    Schindler’s List (1993)

    ‘Schindler’s List’ (Universal)

    Forrest Gump (1994)

    ‘Forrest Gump’ (Paramount)

    The Shawshank Redemption (1994)

    ‘The Shawshank Redemption’ (Columbia)

    Three Colors: Red (1994)

    ‘Three Colors: Red’ (Miramax)

    Fallen Angels (1995)

    ‘Fallen Angels’

    Se7en (1995)

    ‘Se7en’ (New Line)

    Fargo (1996)

    ‘Fargo’ (Gramercy)

    Romeo + Juliet (1996)

    ‘Romeo + Juliet’ (20th Century Fox)

    A Little Princess (1997)

    ‘A Little Princess’ (Warner Bros.)

    L.A. Confidential (1997)

    ‘L.A. Confidential’ (Warner Bros.)

    Neon Genesis Evangelion: The End of Evengelion (1997)

    Dil Se.. (1998)

    ‘Dil Se..’ (Eros)

    Mulan (1998)

    ‘Mulan’ (Disney)

    Saving Private Ryan (1998)

    ‘Saving Private Ryan’ (Dreamworks)

    The Truman Show (1998)

    ‘The Truman Show’ (Paramount)

    Adolescence of Utena (1999)

    Fight Club (1999)

    ‘Fight Club’ ()

    The Matrix (1999)

    ‘The Matrix’ (Warner Bros.)

    American Psycho (2000)

    ‘American Psycho’ (Lionsgate)

    The Cell (2000)

    ‘The Cell’ (New Line)

    In the Mood For Love (2000)

    ‘In the Mood For Love’ (GEM Entertainment)

    Amelie (2001)

    ‘Amelie’ (Miramax)

    The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)

    ‘Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring’ (New Line)

    Kill Bill Vol. 1 (2001)

    ‘Kill Bill Vol. 1’

    Spirited Away (2001)

    ‘Spirited Away’ (Studio Ghibli)

    City of God (2002)

    ‘City of God’ (Miramax)

    Far From Heaven (2002)

     

    Hero (2002)

    ‘Hero’ (Miramax)
    ‘Hero’ (Miramax)

    Big Fish (2003)

    ‘Big Fish’ (Columbia)

    Lost in Translation (2003)

    ‘Lost in Translation’ (Focus Features)

    Howl’s Moving Castle (2004)

    ‘Howl’s Moving Castle’ (Studio Ghibli)

    Shaun of the Dead (2004)

    ‘Shaun of the Dead’ (Universal)

    Jarhead (2005)

    ‘Jarhead’ (Universal)

    Children of Men (2006)

    ‘Children of Men’ (Universal)

    The Fall (2006)

    ‘The Fall’ (Roadside Attractions)

    Pan’s Labyrinth (2006)

    ‘Pan’s Labyrinth’ (Picturehouse)

    The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (2007)

    ‘The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford’ (Warner Bros.)

    Sunshine (2007)

    ‘Sunshine’ (Searchlight)

    There Will Be Blood (2007)

    ‘There Will Be Blood’ (Paramount Vantage)

    Enter the Void (2009)

    ‘Enter the Void’ (2009)

    The Road (2009)

    ‘The Road’ (The Weinstein Company)

    Up (2009)

    ‘Up’ (Disney/Pixar)

    Valhalla Rising (2009)

    ‘Valhalla Rising’ (IFC)

    Beyond the Black Rainbow (2010)

    ‘Beyond the Black Rainbow’ (Elephant Eye)

    Black Swan (2010)

    ‘Black Swan’ (Searchlight)

    Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (2010)

    ‘Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives’ (Strand)

    Drive (2011)

    ‘Drive’ (FilmDistrict)

    Melancholia (2011)

    ‘Melancholia’ (Magnolia)

    The Tree of Life (2011)

    ‘The Tree of Life’ (Searchlight)

    Django Unchained (2012)

    ‘Django Unchained’ (The Weinstein Company)

    Frances Ha (2012)

    ‘Frances Ha’ (IFC)

    Life of Pi (2012)

    ‘Life of Pi’ (20th Century Fox)

    The Master (2012)

    Skyfall (2012)

    ‘Skyfall’ (MGM)

    Only God Forgives (2013)

    ‘Only God Forgives’ (RADiUS-TWC)
    ‘Only God Forgives’ (RADiUS-TWC)

    Prisoners (2013)

    ‘Prisoners’ (Warner Bros.)

    A Girl Walks Home At Night (2014)

    ‘A Girl Walks Home At Night’ (Kino Lorber)

    The Grand Budapest Hotel (2014)

    ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ (Searchlight)
    ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ (Searchlight)

    Mr. Turner (2014)

    ‘Mr. Turner’ (Sony Classics)

    Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)

    ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ (Warner Bros.)

    The Revenant (2015)

    ‘The Revenant’ (20th Century Fox)

    Slow West (2015)

    ‘Slow West’ (A24)

    Hunt for the Wilderpeople (2016)

    ‘Hunt for the Wilderpeople’ (Madman)

    La La Land (2016)

    ‘La La Land’ (Lionsgate)

    Moonlight (2016)

    ‘Moonlight’ (A24)

    A Ghost Story (2017)

    ‘A Ghost Story’ (A24)

    Blade Runner 2049 (2017)

    ‘Blade Runner 2049’ (Warner Bros.)

    Dunkirk (2017)

    ‘Dunkirk’ (Warner Bros.)

    Phantom Thread (2017)

    ‘Phantom Thread’ (Focus)

    Black Panther (2018)

    ‘Black Panther’ (Disney/Marvel)

    Isle of Dogs (2018)

    Roma (2018)

    Tumbbad (2018)

    ‘Tumbbad’ (Amazon)

    1917 (2019)

    ‘1917’ (Universal)

    First Cow (2019)

    ‘First Cow’ (A24)

    Director: Kelly Reichardt

    Cinematographer: Christopher Blauvelt

     

    Portrait of a Lady on Fire (2019)

    ‘Portrait of a Lady on Fire’ (Neon)

    Director: Celine Sciamma

    Cinematographer: Claire Mathon

    Spencer (2021)

    ‘Spencer’ (NEON)

    Director: Pablo Larrain

    Cinematographer: Claire Mathon

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (2021)

    ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’ (Apple+/A24)
    ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’ (Apple+/A24)

    Director: Joel Coen

    Cinematography: Bruno Debonnel

  • Emmy Predictions 2022

    Emmy Predictions 2022

    DRAMA

    BEST DRAMA SERIES

    Succession has this and while I do believe Squid Game will upset the HBO behemoth in at least one category, this is not where that will happen.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Succession

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    Squid Game was unequivocally the surprise hit of 2021 and the Academy will definitely award it in one of the televised categories tonight. Lead Actor and Directing are the categories where the show is most likely to get its flowers and while Brian Cox (who still hasn’t won an Emmy for playing Logan Roy) is poised for an upset, the passion for Lee Jung-Jae and Squid Game as a whole should push him to victory.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Lee Jung-Jae – Squid Game

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Brian Cox – Succession

    BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA

    To me this is between Zendaya and Melanie Lynskey for Euphoria and Yellowjackets respectively. Some prognosticators also have Laura Linney as a top contender but I doubt the Academy awards the Ozark actress in the show’s final season due to their preference for awarding actresses in their shows’ first seasons. Zendaya already upset in this category two years ago and could be the first actress to win again for the same performance in this category since Julianna Marguiles for The Good Wife in 2014. The question of this category is did the Academy like Melanie Lynskey’s performance and Yellowjackets enough to keep Zendaya from winning again? Lynskey has never been previously nominated and there does seem to be wide support for her show (it was nominated for drama, directing, writing, supporting actress, and casting in addition to Lynskey’s nod). But Zendaya received even better notices for her performance in this season of Euphoria and the show has already won five Emmys this year at the Creative Arts ceremony. This is the best place to award the obviously-beloved show in the televised categories though so I’m going to go with a Zendaya repeat since her star power and the popularity of her work in this show are strong enough to allow her to prevail.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Zendaya – Euphoria

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Melanie Lynskey –

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA

    This should be between the two Succession men nominated here. While Macfadyen had an incredible season that gave him one of the most iconic scenes in recent TV history, Culkin has the meatier role and more screentime. While it’s possible that Culkin could split votes with Macfadyen (and his fellow costar Nicholas Braun who was also nominated here), I don’t see that being too likely (though if it does happen, Golden Globe winner Oh Yeong-Su should take this)

    PREDICTED WINNER: Kieran Culkin – Succession

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Matthew Macfadyen – Succession or Oh Yeong-su – Squid Game

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN DRAMA

    I personally don’t see Julia Garner becoming a three-time Emmy winner for playing Ruth Langmore in Ozark even though she is the favorite in this category this year. The question is, is her competition strong enough? Cases can be made for Sarah Snook, Jung Ho-yeon, or Rhea Sheehorn winning instead. Snook is playing Shiv Roy one of the most popular TV characters of the last five years, Jung had one of the best performances last year’s “it” show, and Rhea Sheehorn gave her all in the final season of a beloved show who many believe hasn’t gotten its deserved flowers from the Academy (if Better Call Saul ends up empty-handed tonight it will end its run with 46 Emmy nods and no wins). To me this is between Snook and Jung, one a known commodity for the Academy and the other a breakout star from this year’s most “zeitgeisty” show. My instincts are telling me to go with Snook so I will but this category is wide-open.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Sarah Snook – Succession

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Julia Garner – Ozark, Jung Ho-yeon – Squad Game, or Rhea Sheehorn – Better Call Saul

    BEST DRAMA DIRECTING

    In my eyes this is really between Severance and Squid Game. If Severance wins anywhere tonight it’s going to be here. While I think Squid Game (and Red Light, Green Light in particular) fits the style of what the academy usually goes for in this category, I believe that here is where the Severance support is going to make itself apparent.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Severance (The We We Are)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Squid Game (Red Light, Green Light) or Succession (All the Bells Say)

    BEST DRAMA WRITING

    While Severance or Yellowjackets do have the chance to upset here, I think Succession has this in the bag.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Succession (All the Bells Say)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Severance (The We We Are) or Yellowjackets (Pilot)

     

    COMEDY

    BEST COMEDY SERIES

    Ted Lasso had an amazing last year but there does seem to be some fatigue settling in and there’s a desire for new blood in the comedy categories. Abbott Elementary is that new blood and while Ted Lasso very much could repeat, I think Abbott has this.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Abbott Elementary

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Ted Lasso

    BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    Bill Hader has won in this category on both occasions he was previously nominated, will he go 3 for 3? I think so, his work here is some of the most compelling work of anyone nominated in this category this century and a win here would be much-deserved. Obviously my opinion is not important for the prediction and Sudeikis can easily prevail here but I think Ted Lasso won’t have as much success this year as it did last year.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Bill Hader – Barry

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso

    BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    Jean Smart won this last year and the industry veteran will likely repeat. Abbott Elementary’s own Quinta Brunson is her main competition and could very well upset especially since her show will likely win Best Comedy. However, I think Smart’s performance better fits the mold of what the Academy usually rewards in this category and she’ll likely win her fifth Emmy tonight.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jean Smart – Hacks

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

    Brett Goldstein is going to be a repeat winner in this category. I don’t see very many hurdles in a way and while Barry’s Henry Winkler has a longshot chance, this is almost certainly going to Roy Kent.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Henry Winkler – Barry

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

    I want Janelle James to win here very badly, Ava was the funniest character on the show and every scene with her was unskippable. That said, there is a chance that James and her costar Sheryl Lee Ralph could split votes. If that does happen, the other Ava nominated here, Hannah Einbinder, will probably take this over last year’s winner Hannah Waddingham and her work in Ted Lasso. But for now, I’m going with James.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Hannah Einbinder – Hacks or Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso

    BEST COMEDY DIRECTING

    This is going to Barry. 710N is a masterclass in suspense and the episode as a whole really fits what the Academy usually goes for in this category.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Barry (710N)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST COMEDY WRITING

    The Emmys do prefer pilot episodes in this category and while The One, The Only may be Hacks’ most loved episode, I’m going to go with history and pick the top pilot in contention: Abbott Elementary has a pretty good chance of winning Best Comedy and it’s by far the frontrunner in this category.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Abbott Elementary (Pilot)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Hacks (The One, The Only)

     

    LIMITED SERIES AND TV MOVIE

    BEST LIMITED SERIES

    While Dopesick does have the chance to upset here, The White Lotus is the frontrunner by a lot and should pull through.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Dopesick

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    Amanda Seyfried is getting more positive critical notices in recent years after standout performances in films like First Reformed, Mank, and A Mouthful of Air. She’ll most likely get her first major industry award tonight for her work as disgraced Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Lily James – Pam and Tommy

    BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    Finally! Michael Keaton is going to win his first major industry award and I’m here for it!

    PREDICTED WINNER: Michael Keaton – Dopesick

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    I love how one of the most locked categories of the night is going to see Murray Bartlett, an actor that many didn’t know of until this performance, triumph over highly-established names like Seth Rogen, Peter Sarsgaard, and Michael Stuhlbarg.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE

    I was watching a TikTok yesterday of this creator doing impressions of various accents and they ranged from Scottish to Irish to Jennifer Coolidge. Coolidge being name-dropped in that Tiktok epitomizes to me how popular her performance in this show is and as she is also in the inevitable winner for Best Limited Series I don’t think she will have any trouble winning here

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick

    BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE DIRECTING

    With the five Creative Arts Emmys that The White Lotus won I really don’t see it losing directing as that award often goes to the show that has the most success in the techs.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Dopesick

    BEST LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE WRITING

    The White Lotus has an ever chance of winning here than in directing. By the end of the night, Mike White should be a three-time Emmy winner.

    PREDICTED WINNER: The White Lotus

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Dopesick

     

    VARIETY

    BEST COMPETITION PROGRAM

    RuPaul’s Drag Race has won four years in a row and that streak shows no signs of stopping.

    PREDICTED WINNER: RuPaul’s Drag Race

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES

    Oliver. That’s all.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

    BEST VARIETY SKETCH SERIES

    Saturday Night Live seems basically unbeatable here and even though it would be nice if A Black Lady Sketch Show was to prevail here that most likely won’t happen

    PREDICTED WINNER: Saturday Night Live

    POTENTIAL UPSET: A Black Lady Sketch Show

    BEST VARIETY SPECIAL WRITING

    Jerrod Carmichael’s Rothaniel was far and away the most heavily-discussed special of this year’s nominees and this funny and heartfelt work will likely triumph with its only real competition being Norm Macdonald’s last special.

    PREDICTED WINNER: Jerrod Carmichael (Rothaniel)

    POTENTIAL UPSET: Norm Macdonald (Nothing Special)

    BEST VARIETY SERIES WRITING

    PREDICTED WINNER: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

    POTENTIAL UPSET: N/A

     

    The 74th Primetime Emmys will be televised on NBC and Peacock at 8 PM EST/5 PM PST

  • Venice 2022 Lineup Announced: Baumbach’s ‘White Noise’ To Open Festival

    Venice 2022 Lineup Announced: Baumbach’s ‘White Noise’ To Open Festival

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In five of the past six years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from last month, I have three of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: The Son, Bardo, and White Noise. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender (The Whale could end up being the Venice top 5 Picture contender as well).

    Anyways, here is the Venice slate:

    Opening Night

    “White Noise,” Noah Baumbach (in competition)

    Competition/Venezia 79

    “Il Signore delle Formiche,” Gianni Amelio

    “The Whale,” Darren Aronofsky

    “L’Immensita,” Emanuele Crialese

    “Saint Omer,” Alice Diop

    “Blonde,” Andrew Dominik

    “TÁR,” Todd Field

    “Love Life,” Koji Fukada

    “Bardo,” Alejandro González Iñárritu

    “Athena,” Romain Gavras

    “Bones and All,” Luca Guadagnino

    “The Eternal Daughter,” Joanna Hogg

    “Beyond the Wall,” Vahid Jalilvand

    “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh

    “Argentina, 1985,” Santiago Mitre

    “Chiara,” Susanna Nicchiarelli

    “Monica,” Andrea Pallaoro

    “No Bears,” Jafar Panahi

    “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed,” Laura Poitras

    “A Couple,” Frederick Wiseman

    “The Son,” Florian Zeller

    “Our Ties,” Roschdy Zem

    “Other People’s Children,” Rebecca Zlotowski

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    Closing Film: “The Hanging Sun,” Francesco Carrozzini

    “When the Waves Are Gone,” Lav Diaz

    “Living,” Oliver Hermanus

    “Dead for a Dollar,” Walter Hill

    “Call of God,” Kim Ki-duk

    “Dreamin’ Wild,” Bill Pohlad

    “Master Gardener,” Paul Schrader

    “Siccita,” Paolo Virzi

    “Pearl,” Ti West

    “Don’t Worry Darling,” Olivia Wilde

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 6 years:

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog; Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite, Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land; Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture.

    In order of likelihood that will probably be Bardo, The Son, White Noise, The Whale, Don’t Worry Darling, and then The Banshees of Inisherin. Bardo and The Son are my current picks to become Best Picture nominees and I fear that White Noise might suffer the same fate that many other Venice openers have since La La Land in 2016 where they come from big auteurs yet aren’t met with the expected praise (Downsizing, First Man, and The Truth all fit this mold).

    Here is the rest of the slate:

    Out of Competition (Non Fiction)

    “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom,” Evgeny Afineevsky

    “The Matchmaker,” Benedetta Argentieri

    “Gli Ultima Giorni Dell’Umanita,” Enrico Ghezzi, Alessandro Gagliardo

    “A Compassionate Spy,” Steve James

    “Music for Black Pigeons,” Jorgen Leth and Andreas Koefoed

    “The Kiev Trial,” Sergei Loznitsa

    “In Viaggio,” Gianfranco Rosi

    “Bobby White Ghetto President,” Christopher Sharp and Moses Bwayo

    “Nuclear,” Oliver Stone

    Out of Competition (Series)

    “The Kingdom Exodus,” Lars von Trier

    “Copenhagen Cowboy,” Nicolas Winding Refn

    Horizons/Orizzonti

    “Princess,” Roberto de Paolis

    “Victim,” Michal Blanko

    “On the Fringe,” Juan Diego Botto

    “Trenque Lauquen,” Laura Citarella

    “Vera,” Tizza Covi, Rainer Frimmel

    “Innocence,” Guy Davidi

    “Blanquita,” Fernando Guzzoni

    “Pour La France (For My Country,” Rachid Hami

    “A Man,” Kei Ishikawa

    “Bread and Salt,” Damian Kocur

    “Luxembourg, Luxembourg,” Antonio Lukich

    “Ti Mangio IL Cuore,” Pippo Mezzapesa

    “To the North,” Mihai Mincan

    “Autobiography,” Makbul Mubarak

    “La Syndicaliste (The Sitting Duck),” Jean-Paul Salomé

    “World War III,” Houman Seyedi

    “The Happiest Man in the World,” Teona Strugar Mitevska

    “The Bride,” Sérgio Tréfaut

    Horizons/Orizzonti Extra

    “Origin of Evil,” Sébastien Marnier

    “Hanging Gardens,” Ahmed Yassin Al Daradji

    “Amanda,” Carolina Cavalli

    “Red Shoes,” Carlos Eichelmann Kaiser

    “Nezouh,” Soudade Kaadan

    “Notte Fantasma,” Fulvio Risuleo

    “Without Her,” Arian Vazirdaftari

    “Valeria Is Getting Married,” Michal Vinik

    “Goliath,” Adilkhan Yerzhanov

    Source: IndieWire