24 Jul Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere
VENICE
The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In seven of the past eight years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.
In my predictions from this month, I have one of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. However, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door, Todd Phillips’s Joker: Folie a Deux, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Pablo Larrain’s Maria, and Justin Kurzel’s The Order are films to look out for. If any one of these films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.
Here is the Venice slate for this year:
In Competition
The Room Next Door, dir. Pedro Almodóvar
Campo di Battaglia (Battleground), dir. Gianni Amelio
Leurs enfants après eux (And Their Children After Them), dir. Ludovic Boukherma, Zoran Boukherma
The Brutalist, dir. Brady Corbet
Jouer avec le feu (The Quiet Son), dir. Delphine Coulin, Muriel Coulin
Vermiglio, dir. Maura Delpero
Iddu (Sicilian Letters), dir. Fabio Grassadonia, Antonio Piazza
Queer, dir. Luca Guadagnino
Kjærlighet (Love), dir. Dag Johan Haugerud
April, dir. Dea Kulumbegashvili
The Order, dir. Justin Kurzel
Maria, dir. Pablo Larraín
Trois amies (Three Friends), dir. Emmanuel Mouret
Kill the Jockey, dir. Luis Ortega
Joker: Folie à Deux, dir. Todd Phillips
Babygirl, dir. Halina Reijn
Ainda estou aqui (I’m Still Here), dir. Walter Salles
Diva Futura, dir. Giulia Louise Steigerwalt
Harvest, dir. Athina Rachel Tsangari
Qing chun gui (Youth – Homecoming), dir. Wang Bing
Stranger Eyes, dir. Yeo Siew Hua
Out of Competition (Fiction)
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, dir. Tim Burton
L’orto americano (The American Backyard), dir. Pupi Avati
Il tempo che ci vuole, dir. Francesca Comencini
Phantosmia, dir. Lav Diaz
Maldoror, dir. Fabrice du Welz
Broken Rage, dir. Takeshi Kitano
Baby Invasion, dir. Harmony Korine
Cloud, dir. Kurosawa Kiyoshi
Finalement (Finally), dir. Claude Lelouch
Wolfs, dir. Jon Watts
Se posso permettermi Capitolo II, dir. Marco Bellocchio
Allégorie citadine (An Urban Allegory), dir. Alice Rohrwacher, JR
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 8 years:
2023 – In Competition: Poor Things (Golden Lion winner), Maestro
2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)
2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune
2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)
2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story
2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born
2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)
2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge
Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Queer, Joker: Folie a Deux, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Maria, The Order, and Wolfs. Like with Joker back in 2019, Warner Bros. has submitted ‘Folie a Deux’ in competition at the festival, possibly indicating their confidence in its quality. There’s never been a year with three blockbuster sequels in the Best Picture nominee slate but if Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 play well, we could see them join Dune 2 as Best Picture nominees.
This is the rest of the Venice slate:
Out of Competition (Non-Fiction)
Apocalipse nos trópicos (Apocalypse in the Tropics), dir. Petra Costa
Bestiari, erbari, lapidari (Bestiaries, Herbaria, Lapidaries), dir. Massimo D’Anolfi, Martina Parenti
Why War, dir. Amos Gitai
2073, dir. Asif Kapadia
One to One: John & Yoko, dir. Kevin Macdonald, Sam Rice-Edwards
Separated, dir. Errol Morris
Israel Palestina på svensk TV 1958-1989 (Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989), dir. Göran Hugo Olsson
Russians at War, dir. Anastasia Trofimova
TWST / Things We Said Today, dir. Andrei Ujică
Riefenstahl, dir. Andres Veiel
Pisni zemli, shcho povilno (Songs of Slow Burning Earth), dir. Olha Zhurba
Out of Competition (Series)
Disclaimer (Chapters 1 – 7), dir. Alfonso Cuarón
Los años nuevos (The New Years) (Ep. 1 – 10), dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen del Amo, Sandra Romero, David Martín de los Santos
Familier som vores (Families Like Ours) (Ep. 1 – 7), dir. Thomas Vinterberg
M – Il figlio del secolo (M – Son of the Century) (Ep. 1 – 8), dir. Joe Wright
Out of Competition (Special Screenings)
Leopardi. The Poet of the Infinity (Part 1 & 2), dir. Sergio Rubini
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, dir. Peter Weir
Beauty Is Not a Sin, dir. Nicolas Winding Refn
Horizons Competition
Nonostante, dir. Valerio Mastandrea
Quiet Life, dir. Alexandros Avranas
Mon inséparable (My Everything), dir. Anne-Sophie Bailly
Aïcha, dir. Mehdi Barsaoui
TORONTO
In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF six times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Sean Baker’s Anora, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Edward Berger’s Conclave, Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson, Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light, Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch, John Crowley’s We Live in Time, and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside are some of the most high-profile films being shown. Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing which is undoubtedly in the running this year as a major Best Picture nominee contender, played at TIFF last year.
Galas 2024
*previously announced
“Andrea Bocelli: Because I Believe,” Cosima Spender | UK
World Premiere
“Better Man,” Michael Gracey | USA
Canadian Premiere
“Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs,” Embeth Davidtz | South Africa
Canadian Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
*“Eden,” Ron Howard | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
*“Elton John: Never Too Late,” R.J. Cutler, David Furnish | USA
World Premiere
*“Harbin,” Woo Min-ho | South Korea
World Premiere
“Meet the Barbarians,” Julie Delpy | France
International Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
*“Nutcrackers,” David Gordon Green | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Oh, Canada,” Paul Schrader | USA
North American Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band,” Thom Zimny | USA
World Premiere
*“Superboys of Malegaon,” Reema Kagti | India
World Premiere
*“The Deb,” Rebel Wilson | Australia
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Friend,” Scott McGehee, David Siegel | USA
International Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Penguin Lessons,” Peter Cattaneo | Spain/United Kingdom
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Return,” Uberto Pasolini | Italy/United Kingdom
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Shrouds,” David Cronenberg | Canada/France
North American Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
*“The Wild Robot,” Chris Sanders | USA
World Premiere
“Unstoppable,“ William Goldenberg | USA
World Premiere
“Will & Harper,” Josh Greenbaum | USA
International Premiere
Special Presentations 2024
*Previously announced
“40 Acres,” R.T. Thorne | Canada
World Premiere
“All of You,” William Bridges | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“All We Imagine as Light,” Payal Kapadia | France/India/Netherlands/Luxembourg
Canadian Premiere
“Anora,” Sean Baker | USA
Canadian Premiere
“Bird,” Andrea Arnold | United Kingdom
North American Premiere
“Bring Them Down,” Christopher Andrews | Ireland/Belgium
World Premiere
“Can I Get A Witness?” Ann Marie Fleming | Canada
World Premiere
“Carnival is Over,” Fernando Coimbra | Brazil/Portugal
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Caught by the Tides,” Jia Zhang-Ke | China
North American Premiere
“Conclave,” Edward Berger | USA/United Kingdom
International Premiere
“Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard | France/USA/Mexico
Canadian Premiere
“Hard Truths,” Mike Leigh | United Kingdom/Spain
World Premiere
“Harvest,” Athina Rachel Tsangari | United Kingdom
North American Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Heretic,” Scott Beck, Bryan Woods | Canada
World Premiere
“I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles | Brazil/France
North American Premiere
“I, the Executioner,” Ryoo Seung-wan | South Korea
North American Premiere
*“K-Pops,” Anderson .Paak | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Love in the Big City,” E.oni | South Korea
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Millers in Marriage,” Edward Burns | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Misericordia,” Alain Guiraudie | Spain/Portugal/France
Canadian Premiere
*“Nightbitch,” Marielle Heller | USA
World Premiere
“On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni | Zambia/United Kingdom/Ireland
North American Premiere
“Piece by Piece,” Morgan Neville | USA
International Premiere
“Quisling – The Final Days,” Erik Poppe | Norway
International Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Relay,” David Mackenzie | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Rez Ball,” Sydney Freeland | USA
World Premiere
“Riff Raff,” Dito Montiel | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Rumours,” Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson | Canada/Germany
North American Premiere
“Sharp Corner,” Jason Buxton | Canada/Ireland
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
*“Shepherds,” Sophie Deraspe | Canada/France
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Sketch,” Seth Worley | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Assessment,” Fleur Fortuné | United Kingdom/Germany/USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Cut,” Sean Ellis | United Kingdom
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The End,” Joshua Oppenheimer | Denmark/UK
Canadian Premiere
“The Fire,” Inside Rachel Morrison | USA
World Premiere
“The Girl with the Needle,” Magnus von Horn | Denmark/Poland/Sweden
North American Premiere
“The Last Showgirl,” Gia Coppola | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
*“The Life of Chuck,” Mike Flanagan | USA
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“The Order,” Justin Kurzel | Canada/USA
North American Premiere
“The Piano Lesson,” Malcolm Washington | USA
International Premiere
*“We Live in Time,” John Crowley | United Kingdom/France
World Premiere
“Went Up the Hill,” Samuel Van Grinsven | New Zealand/Australia
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Without Blood,” Angelina Jolie | USA/Italy
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
“Young Werther,” José Avelino Gilles Corbett Lourenço | Canada
World Premiere
Sales Title – Rights Available
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 11 years:
2023 – Special Presentations: American Fiction (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), The Zone of Interest
2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune
2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father
2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)
2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight
2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, and The End