15 Dec AFI Establishes the Top Contenders of This Season
The American Film Institute released their list of the top 10 films and TV shows of the year. As always, AFI is the first major predictor of what the Best Picture slate is going to look like. Here are their picks:
AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR
“Anora”
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Perez”
“Nickel Boys”
“A Real Pain”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR
“Abbott Elementary”
“The Bear”
“Hacks”
“A Man on the Inside”
“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”
“Nobody Wants This”
“The Penguin”
“Shogun”
“Shrinking”
“True Detective: Night Country”
AFI SPECIAL AWARD
“Baby Reindeer”
Source: The Wrap
In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.
- 2024 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest
- 2023 – 8 of 10 (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
- 2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
- 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
- 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
- 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
- 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
- 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
- 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)
(Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)
Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.
- Anatomy of a Fall – Nominated at BAFTA and Golden Globes
- The Zone of Interest – Nominated at the Golden Globes
- All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
- Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
- Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
- The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
- Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
- Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
- Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
- Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
- Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
- Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
- Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
- Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
- The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
- Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards
It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Complete Unknown.