Awards Insights

Tag: AFI

  • AFI Establishes the Top Contenders of This Season

    AFI Establishes the Top Contenders of This Season

    The American Film Institute released their list of the top 10 films and TV shows of the year. As always, AFI is the first major predictor of what the Best Picture slate is going to look like. Here are their picks:

    AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR

    “Anora”

    “The Brutalist”

    “A Complete Unknown”

    “Conclave”

    “Dune: Part Two”

    “Emilia Perez”

    “Nickel Boys”

    “A Real Pain”

    “Sing Sing”

    “Wicked”

    AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR

    “Abbott Elementary”

    “The Bear”

    “Hacks”

    “A Man on the Inside”

    “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”

    “Nobody Wants This”

    “The Penguin”

    “Shogun”

    “Shrinking”

    “True Detective: Night Country”

    AFI SPECIAL AWARD

    “Baby Reindeer”

    Source: The Wrap

     

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2024 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest
    • 2023 – 8 of 10 (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
    • 2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
    • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • Anatomy of a Fall – Nominated at BAFTA and Golden Globes
    • The Zone of Interest – Nominated at the Golden Globes
    • All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
    • Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
    • Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Complete Unknown.

  • AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

    AFI Top 10 Announced: No Major Misses as This Year’s Contenders Become Much Clearer

    The AFI awards are announced over a month before nominations are released yet are consistently one of the most consistently strong predictors of the Best Picture slate. Last year, Drive My Car was the only Best Picture nominee that didn’t appear in AFI’s slate and in the last seven years, in a single year, a max of two films have made Best Picture without hitting AFI. That trend shows no signs of stopping and with that, here is AFI’s slate.

    AFI Movies of the Year

    • “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios)
    • “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
    • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Nope” (Universal Pictures)
    • “She Said” (Universal Pictures)
    • “Tár” (Focus Features)
    • “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
    • “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
    • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)

    AFI Television Programs of the Year

    • “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
    • “The Bear” (FX)
    • “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Mo” (Netflix)
    • “Pachinko” (Apple TV+)
    • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
    • “Severance” (Apple TV+)
    • “Somebody Somewhere” (HBO)
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

    AFI Special Award

    • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

    Source: Variety

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2022 – 9 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Drive My Car)
    • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • Drive My Car – none
    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    It seems likely that around 2 to 4 of the 11 films chosen by AFI (including The Banshees of Inisherin’s Special Award), and if four films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nope, Avatar: The Way of the Water, The Woman King, and She Said.

  • AFI Top 10 is Released: The Best Picture Lineup Begins to Take Shape

    AFI Top 10 is Released: The Best Picture Lineup Begins to Take Shape

    Considering how early, the AFI awards occur in the season, their picks are ridiculously predictive. I personally think 7-8 films from the lineup below will be nominated (the misses being CODA and Tick, Tick…Boom).

    Anyway, here are their picks.

    AFI Movies of the Year

    • “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
    • “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
    • “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
    • “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    • “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
    • “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
    • “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films/A24)
    • “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

    AFI Television Programs of the Year

    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Maid” (Netflix)
    • “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
    • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
    • “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV Plus)
    • “Succession” (HBO)
    • “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
    • “The Underground Railroad” (Prime Video)
    • “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

    AFI Special Award

    • “Belfast” (Focus Features)
    • “Squid Game” (Netflix)
    • “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures)

    The AFI Awards will take place on Jan. 7 in Los Angeles.

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2021 – 6 of the 8 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    So something like The Lost Daughter, which didn’t receive a NBR or AFI pick, will need a nod at at least one of these major awards bodies if it wants a chance at making it in to BP.

  • Oscar News: AFI Releases its Top 10 Films and TV Shows of the Year

    Oscar News: AFI Releases its Top 10 Films and TV Shows of the Year

    Today, the American Film Institute released its picks for the 10 best films and television shows of the past year and as this organization’s picks are some of the most predictive when it comes to the Oscar Best Picture field, they are worth an analysis.

    The picks are as follows:

    AFI MOVIES OF THE YEAR

    • DA 5 BLOODS
    • JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
    • MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
    • MANK
    • MINARI
    • NOMADLAND
    • ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
    • SOUL
    • SOUND OF METAL
    • THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

    AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR

    • BETTER CALL SAUL
    • BRIDGERTON
    • THE CROWN
    • THE GOOD LORD BIRD
    • LOVECRAFT COUNTRY
    • THE MANDALORIAN
    • MRS. AMERICA
    • THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT
    • TED LASSO
    • UNORTHODOX

    AFI SPECIAL AWARD

    • HAMILTON

    Interesting inclusions this year include Sound of Metal, Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, and One Night in Miami as everything else was essentially guaranteed to be included. All the films nominated here definitely receive a boost in their standing in the Best Picture race.

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2020 – 8 of the 9 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    In the last five years, the eventual Best Picture winner has always been an AFI pick and there hasn’t been a year where more than two of the eventual Best Picture nominees did not hit AFI before.

    Obviously, we are living in exceptional circumstances and it is important to mention that AFI picks are not usually as far away timewise from the Oscars as they are this year. That said, these are pretty compelling statistics and I would be remiss if I hadn’t mentioned them.

    Now I am going to analyze each film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR.
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards.
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    What these statistics show me that if a film that gets snubbed by the AFI want to receive a Best Picture nomination, they have to be picked by the Critics Choice Awards and if they don’t do that they have to win at either the Golden Globes, SAG, or BAFTA. Only Phantom Thread breaks this so the National Board of Review picks should be paid attention to as well.

    Critics Choice Film Awards nominations are on Feb. 8

    The National Board of Review reveals its picks tomorrow, Jan. 26

    Golden Globe nominations will come out Feb. 3

    SAG nominations will be released Feb. 4

    Lastly, BAFTA’s selections will come out Mar. 9