Tag: oscar predictions

BEST PICTURE

After the Golden Globes released their nods on Monday, these seven films are, in my eyes, all locked for Best Picture nominations. 

Anora (NEON) – CCA, AFI, GG

The Brutalist (A24) – CCA, AFI, GG

Conclave (Focus) – CCA, AFI, GG

Emilia Perez (Netflix) – CCA, AFI, GG

Wicked (Universal) – CCA, AFI, GG

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – CCA, AFI, GG

The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, GG

The last three slots are going to be between A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain. This could change, but right now A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys seem to be getting the most traction. I think A Complete Unknown with its 73 Metascore, 7.9 IMDb score, and standout (and possibly Oscar-winning) performance from Timothee Chalamet should be confidently nominated here and fit the trend of music biopic love in Best Picture. With that in mind, the last two slots are for Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain to fill. Sing Sing missed a Globes Picture nomination, and A Real Pain was left out by Critics Choice. In the end, none of these matter and what really matters is which of these films have strong enough passion behind it? I think Nickel Boys has palpable passion behind it. It has an 89 Metascore, has won multiple film of the year awards and seems to have passion right now. As a result, I think it should be able to secure a nomination. I think Sing Sing has momentum as well and is the kind of crowdpleaser that we often see nominated here. The thing is, I’m not sure if there is passion for A Real Pain outside of Kieran Culkin’s likely Oscar-winning turn. As a result, I am going with Sing Sing.

A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) – CCA, AFI, GG

Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM) – CCA, AFI, GG

Sing Sing (A24) – CCA, AFI

Could Jump In:

A Real Pain (Searchlight) – AFI, GG

Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Conclave, and The Substance all received the Picture, Director, Screenplay trifecta from the Golden Globes meaning that only one of these five films is winning Best Picture. In my eyes, that film is either Anora or The Brutalist, the former with five nods from the Globes and the latter with seven. The biggest surprise for me was the HFPA going all out for Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. The Substance received five nominations, solidifying the body horror film’s place as a very likely Best Picture nominee. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up a top-6 Picture contender (if it already isn’t)

 

To me this is between Corbet and Baker and I think it will be a close contest until the end. While I think the most likely scenario is Corbet getting Director, and Baker’s Anora taking Picture and Screenplay, anything can happen in the next three months until Oscar night. With Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance being definitively an auteur work and with The Substance profile rise in the last month, she also is locked here to me. The rest of the two slots are between Jacques Audiard, Edward Berger, Denis Villeneuve, and Ramell Ross. With the rise of Wicked, The Substance, and The Brutalist it seems that Dune: Part Two is no longer a top 5 Best Picture contender and I think that means that Villeneuve misses here just like he did with the first one. Audiard is the kind of Ruben Ostlund-lite filmmaker that the European branch will go for in a big way. I’m pretty confident that Conclave is this year’s third place film and with that I see Edward Berger getting in, especially since I would be very surprised if he misses at any of the precursors. RaMell Ross will probably overtake him if Nickel Boys becomes a top-six contender but right now I am not seeing that.

BEST DIRECTOR

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Sean Baker – Anora

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

Edward Berger – Conclave

Could Jump In: RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Denis Villeneuve – Dune

 

To me, this is going to be between Adrien Brody and Timothee Chalamet. We will see what each win as the season goes in. Unlike two years ago where Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler were up for awards (with Fraser winning), Chalamet is a lot more well-known of a commodity in the industry and Brody has, unlike Fraser, already been nominated for an Oscar. I honestly think its a 60-40 right now between Brody and Chalamet. A Complete Unknown currently has a 7.9 on IMDb and if it stays 7.7 and above as the season goes on, I think Chalamet’s chances increase. Fiennes and Domingo are locked for nominations here and with that the fifth slot is between Daniel Craig and Jesse Eisenberg. Eisenberg’s nomination is contingent to me on the film being a major enough Picture contender. If it does rise up in its profile, Eisenberg will be getting nominated but if not, Daniel Craig should be able to make it in here and become Queer’s sole nomination.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Daniel Craig – Queer

Could Jump In: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

 

This category is incredibly tight in my eyes and once SAG releases their nominations in just over a week things will (hopefully) get much clearer. Mikey Madison currently looks like the favorite here. She’s won most of the critics’ awards and is the star of a top-two Best Picture contender. This is her breakout moment, and I don’t think anything else has a narrative even close to the one she does. It’s hard to say which actresses are locked here, outside of Madison and Karla Sofia Gascon. Many thought Jolie was locked for Maria but she has not won a singular critics’ award and was also snubbed by the BAFTAs completely by not appearing on their best actress longlist. I honestly see a world where her and Kidman miss, and Jean-Baptiste enters the top five. I think after Gascon, Erivo is locked as well, and then after that the next two slots are really between Demi Moore, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie, and Kidman. The difficult thing here is that, excluding Jolie, all of these actresses seem to be generating a lot of positive buzz right now for their work in their respective films. The Oscars of ten years ago would probably nominate Jolie and Kidman, but how much has the Academy changed? I think they’ve changed enough to where Moore will be nominated here, and I think they will nominate Kidman as well. Kidman’s work is the kind of image deconstruction (Hollywood star plays business woman who enters a BDSM relationship with her subordinate) that I think the Academy will go for. But, like Paul Mescal got in for Aftersun a couple years back, the critics could very likely push Jean-Baptise to a nomination here.

BEST ACTRESS

Mikey Madison – Anora – CCA

Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez – CCA

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked – CCA

Demi Moore – The Substance – CCA

Nicole Kidman – Babygirl

Could Jump In: Marianne Jean Baptiste – Hard Truths – CCA, Angelina Jolie – Maria – CCA, Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

 

Even as his film looks less and less like it will be nominated in Picture, Culkin seems to be holding on to his frontrunner position in this category. Culkin and Guy Pearce seem locked to me, and it seems like the fivesome is going to be Culkin, Pearce, Denzel Washington, Yura Borisov, and Clarence Maclin. However, do not be surprised if Edward Norton sneaks in by unseating one of Washington, Borisov, or Maclin. I still think it is more likely that the five I listed is the eventual five.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain – CCA

Guy Pearce – The Brutalist – CCA

Denzel Washington – Gladiator II – CCA

Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing – CCA

Yura Borisov – Anora – CCA

Could Jump In: Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown – CCA, Stanley Tucci – Conclave

 

I think Saldana, Grande, Jones, and Rosselini are locked here, but this category’s question is the last spot which is between three actresses, Danielle Deadwyler, Margaret Qualley, and Aunjanue Ellis. Having watched The Substance, I think Qualley’s performance in the film is something that appeals more to critics than to Academy voters. And as a result, I think this is between Deadwyler and Ellis. They both have critics’ awards wins (Deadwyler has 3 while Ellis has 1), but I think the more important factor will be the fact that Ellis is in a Best Picture nominee while Deadwyler has not.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez – CCA

Ariana Grande – Wicked – CCA

Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Isabella Rosselini – Conclave – CCA

Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys – CCA

Could Jump In: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson – CCA, Margaret Qualley – The Substance – CCA, Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez

 

The first four slots are locked here, which leaves four films to vie for the last slot. Hard Truths, September 5, All We Imagine as Light, and Challengers are these films and I could see any of them making it in here come nominations morning. i wouldn’t be surprised if Hard Truths or All We Imagine as Light ride in here on critic’ pushes. Hard Truths could ride the wave that its star Marianne Jean-Baptiste has been on for her work in the film and All We Imagine as Light could find itself the subject of a push from Academy members that want to reward the film but have nowhere else to nominate it especially since it wasn’t submitted by India for Best International Feature.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora – CCA

The Brutalist – CCA

The Substance – CCA

A Real Pain – CCA

Hard Truths

Could Jump In: All We Imagine as Light, Challengers – CCA, September 5 – CCA

 

I think Conclave is comfortably the 3rd place contender of this year’s Best Picture race and as a result, should be able to easily take a win in this category. Sing Sing and Nickel Boys should both be nominated here but the last two slots seem very up in the air to me. This category oftentimes rewards work from auteur writer-directors that replaces even Picture nominees that are often musicals or blockbuster films. I think The Room Next Door could be that film but the question is what movie is this replacing, Dune: Part Two or Emilia Perez. The Academy is decidedly not a fan of musicals in the screenplay category (West Side Story missed a few years ago and the last musical to be nominated for Screenplay was top-2 Best Picture contender La La Land) and Dune: Part Two is adapted from one of the most acclaimed sci-fi books of all time, so I think Emilia Perez is more likely to miss.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave

Sing Sing

Nickel Boys

Dune: Part Two

The Room Next Door

Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, Wicked, I’m Still Here, The Piano Lesson

 

Nothing else is entering the fold here

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Wild Robot

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Flow

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Brutalist

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Conclave

Could Jump In: Nosferatu, Blitz

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Brutalist – CCA

Dune: Part Two – CCA

Nosferatu – CCA

Conclave – CCA

Nickel Boys – CCA

Could Jump In: Wicked – CCA, Maria, Emilia Perez

 

All five of Wicked, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, and Maria received nods from both the Costume Designers Guild and the Critics’ Choice Awards in the past week. That doesn’t necessarily mean any of these films are guaranteed for nominations here, but since all of them fit the mold of past nominees in this category, I think they should feel pretty confident. Conclave also received nominations from both groups but as a contemporary film it doesn’t fit the taste of a branch that prefers its period, sci-fi, and fantasy costumes.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Maria

Could Jump In: The Brutalist, Conclave

 

BEST EDITING

Dune: Part Two – CCA, ACE

Anora – CCA, ACE

The Brutalist – CCA

Conclave – CCA, ACE

Emilia Perez – ACE

Could Jump In: Wicked – ACE, Challengers – CCA, ACE, The Substance – ACE, September 5 – CCA

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Substance

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

A Different Man

Could Jump In: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

BEST SOUND

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

Gladiator II

A Complete Unknown

Emilia Perez

Could Jump In: Blitz, Alien: Romulus,

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Gladiator II

Mufasa: The Lion King

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Challengers

The Room Next Door

Could Jump In: The Wild Robot

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Emilia Perez

The Six Triple Eight

Sing Sing

Could Jump In: Will and Harper, Challengers,

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Emilia Perez

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

I’m Still Here

Kneecap

Dahomey

Could Jump In: The Girl with the Needle, Flow

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Sugarcane

Daughters

No Other Land

Dahomey

Black Box Diaries

Could Jump In: Porcelain War, Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

As we head into the heart of awards season, it’s time to take a deep dive into the Oscar race for 2025. This year’s lineup features a fascinating mix of indie darlings, epic sagas, and mainstream favorites that have captured the attention of audiences and critics alike. While a few films seem to be pulling ahead in the race for Best Picture, the landscape is still evolving, with plenty of surprises potentially in store. In this article, I break down the major players across all key categories. From the frontrunners in Best Picture like Anora and The Brutalist, both of which reflect the current zeitgeist of accessibility paired with social consciousness, to the promising contenders in acting and technical categories, I provide a detailed look at how this year’s contenders are shaping up. I’ve also sorted the potential nominees into tiers to help better understand who might have the momentum to go all the way to Oscar night glory.

 

BEST PICTURE

TIER 1

Anora (NEON)

The Brutalist (A24)

These are the top two films this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see these films battle it out as the season rages on. Both films received nods from the Gothams, Anora in Feature, Director, Lead Performance (Mikey Madison), and Supporting Performance (Yura Borisov), and The Brutalist in Lead Performance (Adrien Brody) and Supporting Performance (Guy Pearce). Both films also currently boast incredible IMDb and Metacritic scores (Anora is at a 8.2 and 91 and The Brutalist is at a 8.1 and 88, respectively), illustrating favor from audiences and critics. Previously, I have talked about how every Best Picture winner since Spotlight in 2016 has had the combination of accessibility and social consciousness. Both of these films fit that trend and I think this year’s Best Picture winner can only be either of these films. Anora is an allegory about class and exploitation, while The Brutalist is an epic about the immigrant experience and capitalism. Expect both of them to be multi-nominated films.

TIER 2

Conclave (Focus)

Unlike previous years, there is a very large gulf between the top two Picture players and the rest of the pack. To me, Anora and The Brutalist are the only films that have a chance of winning and everything else will rack up nominations but will not be able to compete with those twin towers. Conclave’s best chance for an Oscar win are in Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. In Actor, I think Ralph Fiennes overdue narrative will only carry him so far and The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody will ultimately prevail. Adapted Screenplay is where the film is the clear frontrunner though I think something crowdpleasing like Sing Sing can upset especially later on in the season.

Emilia Perez (Netflix)

Along with Anora, Emilia Perez was one of the runner-ups for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival this year, and it’s been racking up raves throughout the season. Expect nods for its lead Karla Sofia Gascon who if nominated, will become the first trans actress to be nominated for Best Lead Actress at the Oscars. Additionally, expect success below-the-line as well and a possible win campaign for Zoe Saldana in Best Supporting Actress. One thing that gives me slight pause is that Emilia Perez’s IMDb score is currently only at 7.0. 

Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

This is going to be the undeniable biggest below-the-line player of the year. The first film won six Oscars and this sequel had an even larger impact on pop culture. Its an undeniable top five player that should be able to earn a Best Director nod for Villeneuve even though he missed in that category for the first film. Expect to be a major contender in all the categories that it won last year, which were Sound, Visual Effects, Production Design, Score, Editing, and Cinematography. However, this year’s competition is much more stacked than that year so I doubt ‘Part Two’ will win as many as ‘Part One’

Sing Sing (A24)

A crowdpleaser like Best Picture winner CODA was three years ago, Sing Sing is the kind of film that can make a strong late season push if campaigned well. Its a film that can generate a lot of rousing widespread support with its messages of human solidarity, prisoner rehabilitation, and perseverance. Its the kind of indie humanist film that I could see being a surprise contender in Adapted Screenplay at the least. 

TIER 3

Wicked (Universal)

After its box office success, rave reviews from both critics and audience, and plaudits from leading industry players, Wicked is going to be the second blockbuster nominee this year after Dune Part Two. Wicked has overshadowed its box office competition Gladiator II in essentially category, including both critical and commercial success. I think there is very little chance Gladiator II receives a Best Picture nomination after being overshadowed in nearly every way. Expect nominations for the film in both Actress and Supporting Actress (for both Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande respectively) and both Costume Design and Production Design. 

A Real Pain (Searchlight)

This year’s ‘Sundance-breakout-to-Picture-nominee film, “A Real Pain”has definitely benefited from one of the best campaigning distributors in the game scooping it up. Searchlight will likely bring both this film and A Complete Unknown to Best Picture nominations. With a possible Oscar-winning performance from Kieran Culkin in Supporting Actor, A Real Pain will also earn a nod in Original Screenplay and possibly in Actor if Jesse Eisenberg is able to outpace Queer’s Daniel Craig as the season surges on.

A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)

With recent Picture nominees like Elvis or Bohemian Rhapsody, the Academy clearly loves its music biopics. However, A Complete Unknown’s path to actually winning an Oscar seems a lot more unclear. It’s best chance is probably in Best Actor where Timothee Chalamet is not currently a front runner but can be if The Brutalist or Conclave don’t end up being as big of players as I think they will be. Austin Butler also was not considered a top two contender two years ago around this time in the season but that quickly changed once the precursor awards heated up. The same thing may happen with Chalamet.

The Substance (A24)

In the last five years, there has been at least one film directed by a woman nominated in Best Picture. “The Substance”, with its European Film Award nominations and Cannes Best Screenplay win has shown itself able to rise above its “body horror movie” status: something the Academy has unfortunately looked down upon in the past. This movie is also kind of batshit crazy, so it WILL be alienating audience members

Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM)

This reminds me of “If Beale Street Could Talk”, which may or not have been nominated if it came out in a year where there could be ten nominees in Best Picture instead of eight. I think it has a high chance, but there is already a film that focuses on systemic racism in America in the Best Picture race and I think that Sing Sing’s greater relative accessibility could be a negative factor for Nickel Boys’ chances in this category.

Gladiator II

Gladiator II is a perfect case of “doing good, but not good enough”. The film’s critical acclaim was good but not great. Its box office was good but not as substantial as its competitor Wicked, and its word of mouth appeal is also overshadowed by the musical. While Denzel Washington will surely be nominated and the film will also receive nods in various technical categories, I doubt this will go home with any statues come Oscar night.

TIER 4

September 5 

For a film that is supposedly “apolitical”, ignoring the context of the Palestinians that held nine Israeli athletes hostage and killed two others at the 1972 Munich Olympics, seems deeply political. However, this seems like the kind of film that the Academy might eat up, which pisses me off but whatever. Who expects the Academy to be in support of collective liberation anyways. 

Blitz (Apple TV+)

Every year there’s a film like Blitz. A film with an acclaimed director, high profile cast, and an Oscar-baity premise that flounders by getting good but not great notices and ends up being shut out or close to shut out come nominations morning. Blitz is looking like this year’s iteration of that trend. While Saoirse Ronan might receive a nod, and so may the films Production and Costume Design, I don’t see this film getting more than three nods and it will definitely not be winning them.

TIER 5

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)

This is a curio for me only because I feel like I won’t really be able to gauge how big this movie really is until the European Film Awards reveal their picks on December 7th. Once that day comes, this will be much easier to see but for now, keep a watch on this film and its director.

The Room Next Door (Sony Classics)

The winner of the Golden Lion at Venice, the first English feature from Spanish legend Pedro Almodovar, and featuring two fantastic performances from beloved actresses Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, “The Room Next Door” can’t be completely denied as a Best Picture nominee contender. But even with all of this, its reviews are less than stellar and the passion for the film seems close-to-nonexistent

 

BEST DIRECTOR

To me this feels like a Picture and Screenplay split year. I think right now, Anora will take Picture and Original Screenplay while The Brutalist will take Director as it plays more like an ambitious directorial achievement than Anora does. Corbet and Baker are no-brainers here but which filmmakers will take the rest of the slots? I have now seen Emilia Perez and while I don’t think Audiard deserves a nomination, its definitely a unique vision of a film and those are the types of films the directors branch likes to nominate. Villeneuve missing for Dune: Part One gives me pause about his inclusion but I think he will be since this film is bigger than the former. At this point, the two other filmmakers that I think are most likely to take that fifth spot are Mohammed Rasoulof and Coralie Fargeat. I think one of them definitely will be nominated and right now I am leaning towards Fargeat because I think The Substance will be nominated in Best Picture but if The Seed of the Sacred Fig has an amazing night at the European Film Awards, my thoughts here will change…   

Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Sean Baker – Anora

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

TIER 2

Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Mohammed Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig

TIER 3

Edward Berger – Conclave

RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys

Pedro Almodovar – The Room Next Door

 

BEST ACTOR

While it looks like it’s between Brody and Fiennes right now, why do I think that this is going to be between Brody and Chalamet soon? In my eyes, all three of those actors are locked with the addition of Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. The question is who will take that last slot? Will it be Jesse Eisenberg riding on a wave of support for future Best Picture nominee A Real Pain or will it be Daniel Craig for his critically-raved performance in Queer? I think Craig will take this if he is immensely successful at the critics awards but without that I think Eisenberg will take this.

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

Could Jump In: Daniel Craig – Queer, Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

 

BEST ACTRESS

This is kind of a strange year in Best Actress. The two biggest Best Picture contenders with female leads are Anora and Emilia Perez, but both their leads are mainstream newcomers that don’t feel like obvious winners here. Mikey Madison’s work in Anora will undoubtedly rack up critics’ prizes and her performance is definitely win-worthy, but I’m not sure how much of the Academy will award someone who they haven’t heard about before. It’s not impossible, just unlikely. Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas is the kind of biopic role that would’ve won here in the 2000s but I doubt she will win now, especially since Jolie is already an Oscar winner. To me, the last two slots are between Demi Moore, Cynthia Erivo, and Nicole Kidman. I want to see whether the critics gravitate more towards Moore or Kidman’s performance, I am leaning more towards Erivo and Moore right now because I have both their films in Picture.

Mikey Madison – Anora

Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

Angelina Jolie – Maria

Demi Moore – The Substance

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Babygirl, Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths, Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Culkin, Pearce, and Washington are all pretty much shoo-ins here. I think it’s pretty likely that Clarence Maclin gets in here as well but the last slot is up in the air between Yura Borisov and Stanley Tucci. I think Tucci might have a better chance but also the love for Anora might bring Borisov into the pack.

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

TIER 2

Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

Yura Borisov – Anora

Stanley Tucci – Conclave

Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Saldana, Grande, and Jones are all pretty much guaranteed nods here. After watching Emilia Perez, I am unsure whether Zoe Saldana’s performance is enough to garner a win here but she definitely is more likely than Grande (I have not yet seen Jones’ performance).

Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Ariana Grande – Wicked

Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

TIER 2

Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson

Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez

Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

The Substance

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Could Jump In: Hard Truths, September 5, Saturday Night, Blitz, Challengers

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Conclave

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Emilia Perez

The Room Next Door

Could Jump In: Dune: Part Two, The Wild Robot

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Wild Robot

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Flow

Wallace and Gromit 2: Vengeance Most Fowl

Could Jump In: Moana 2

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dune: Part Two

The Brutalist

Wicked

Gladiator II

Blitz

Could Jump In: Nosferatu, Conclave, Emilia Perez

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nickel Boys will not be getting nominated for Best Cinematography if it isn’t nominated for Best Picture. Dune: Part Two and The Brutalist are definitely guaranteed here, and Emilia Perez seems to be a popular choice here (even if I personally think its cinematography is kind of ugly at times).

Dune: Part Two

The Brutalist

Emilia Perez

Nosferatu

Maria

Could Jump In: Nickel Boys, Conclave, Wicked

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

If Wicked is getting nominated for Best Picture, I think I am pretty confident about it winning here. This one is definitely competitive, the first seven here all would be able to be nominated here in other years. I could very easily see Nosferatu replacing something like Blitz or Maria if it’s as big of a contender as it could be. Watch out for a Maria miss here just like House of Gucci did a few years ago.

Wicked

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Blitz

Could Jump In: Maria, A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist

 

BEST FILM EDITING

With its long takes and over three hour runtime I could see The Brutalist missing here. However, I doubt it will. Additionally, Emilia Perez is exactly the kind of film that does well here with its flashy, stylized editing (even if I think the editing is shit).

Anora

Emilia Perez

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

The Brutalist

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Substance

Dune: Part Two

Wicked

Nosferatu

A Different Man

Could Jump In: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

 

BEST SOUND

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Wicked

Emilia Perez

A Complete Unknown

Could Jump In: Blitz, Twisters

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Could Jump In: Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

Could Jump In: Challengers, The Wild Robot

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Moana 2

Sing Sing

The Six Triple Eight

Could Jump In: Will and Harper, Piece by Piece, Better Man

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Sugarcane

No Other Land

Dahomey

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

Daughters

Could Jump In: Will & Harper, Black Box Diaries

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Emilia Perez

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Kneecap

I’m Still Here

Dahomey

Could Jump In: The Girl with the Needle

Last year, the Cannes Film Festival brought with it Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, both of which became major Best Picture contenders and Oscar winners. This year’s Cannes is now finished and films like Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez and Sean Baker’s Anora have made a splash. Baker’s Anora won the Palme D’or and in my eyes it’s the type of film that will likely end up a top five Best Picture contender by the end of the year especially with a studio like Neon backing it. Netflix’s biggest contender this year is Emilia Perez, and with a long-acclaimed director overdue for Oscar recognition in Jacques Audiard and a Cannes-winning cast featuring Karla Sofia Gascon, Zoe Saldana, and Selena Gomez, this Spanish-language musical should be able to get in if campaigned well.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga played well at Cannes, its opening weekend box office in the United States was lackluster. There are four sequels/prequels that are major contenders this year and Warner Bros. is distributing three of them: Furiosa, Dune: Part Two, and Joker: Folie a Deux. Paramount is producing the fourth, Gladiator 2. There have only ever been two sequels/prequels nominated for Best Picture in the same year. The last time that happened is when Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of the Water were nominated two years ago. This year, Dune: Part Two is a sure thing for a nod and with Furiosa’s box office flounders, Gladiator 2 seems like the best bet to me even though Ridley Scott hasn’t delivered a Best Picture nominee since The Martian in 2016.

With the start of the Cannes Film Festival, the 2025 Oscar season begins almost 10 months before the actual ceremony in early March. This year, as always, looks to be an interesting one. Unlike last year, where I was able to predict just over half of the eventual Best Picture nominees in May, I expect the fall festivals to premiere some major contenders that aren’t currently on my radar.

 

BEST PICTURE

(Films are ordered in terms of likelihood of getting a nomination)

Anora (NEON)

With a Metascore in the high 80s, a socially conscious message that deals with class, and Palme D’Or pedigree, Anora seems like a possible Best Picture winner for the wonderful Sean Baker. Distributor NEON has played the Palme-to-Best Picture game before with Parasite and while Sean Baker’s newest may not have the nearly the hype that film had, it’s still early in the year and as of right now Anora should pat itself on the back for being probably the (tied) safest lock for a nomination among this year’s slate. Expect big campaigns for Baker in Director and Screenplay and for Mikey Madison’s wonderful work in the titular role in Best Actress. Like NEON did with Parasite, this is going to play the fall festivals as well and don’t be surprised if this gets a top three slot at Toronto.

 

Dune Part Two (Warner Bros.)

The other locked Best Picture nominee of this year’s slate, Dune: Part Two is this year’s critically-acclaimed blockbuster pick. Like its precursor which won six Oscars back in 2022, expect this film to be an absolute juggernaut below-the-line. Visual Effects, Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Editing are all possibilities but fellow desert-set blockbuster Furiosa may likely take one or two of those. If there’s any year where we could see a Denis Villeneuve Director Oscar, this would be the year.

 

Blitz (Apple TV+)

Steve McQueen and Saoirse Ronan in a WW2-set drama? Sounds like a match made in Academy heaven. The Oscar winning director and four-time nominated actress are joined on this film by Stephen Graham and Harris Dickinson, both wonderful performers in their own right who could see their respective first nominations this year. Since it’s a 1940s set war film expect possible nominations in Editing, Production Design, Costume Design and Sound as well. This is the type of film that I could see premiering at Telluride or Venice and getting a top three slot at Toronto if it plays there.

 

Sing Sing (A24)

After Colman Domingo’s first nomination last year, does he have what it takes to win? Many think his work in Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is deserving. Him and Queer’s Daniel Craig seem to be the strongest contenders in the Actor category this year, yet sight-unseen, I think the Academy will be drawn to Domingo’s feel-good resilience as opposed to Craig’s complex and possibly unlikeable protagonist. Expect love for the film in Picture and Screenplay as well.

 

A Real Pain (Searchlight_

Searchlight is one of the most consistently successful distributors in the game and this year the centerpiece of their campaign is Jesse Eisenberg’s Sundance smash A Real Pain. Eisenberg won the Sundance screenplay award for his work on the film’s script so expect love for the screenplay as well as for Kieran Culkin’s knockout performance in a supporting role. I could see a world where this gets no other nominations outside of Original Screenplay and Culkin but I don’t see Searchlight not getting a film into the nominee slate.

 

Emilia Perez (Netflix)

A Spanish musical with a trans protagonist might seem too cool for the Academy on paper, but with an all-star cast of Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez, Edgar Ramirez, and newcomer Karla Sofia Gascon, and “A Prophet”’s Jacques Audiard in the director’s chair, this film has the pedigree to make a big run this year. It’s also by far Netflix’s biggest Oscar contender this year and they usually have the ability to slide in 1 or 2 of their films into the Best Picture slate each year. Expect possible nominations for Gascon, Saldana, and maybe even Gomez. Adapted Screenplay, Director, Sound, and Editing are possibilities as well. 

 

Queer (N/A)

With Challengers, Luca Guadganino is hot off his most critically-acclaimed film since his Oscar-winning 2017 effort Call Me By Your Name. With Queer, Guadagnino hopes to continue that streak and could possibly even best the acclaim Challengers received. The film is based on a book by Beat Generation writer William S. Borroughs and stars Daniel Craig in a role that could very well see him earn his first Oscar nod. Justin Kuritzkes, who wrote the screenplay on Guadagnino’s Challengers as well, could be a screenplay contender for both films. Expect this film to premiere at Venice and make a splash when it does.

 

Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)

Based on one of the most acclaimed novels of the last 10 years, Hale Country This Morning, This Evening filmmaker RaMell Ross will bring his realist humanist sensibilities to the Pulitzer prize-winning story of an abusive school and its students. Aunjanue Ellis, Daveed Diggs, Jimmie Fails, and Hamish Linklater form the supporting cast. Ellis seems poised for a Supporting Actress nod if she’s given a substantial enough role. Additionally, this seems like a no-brainer contender in Adapted Screenplay if it’s well-received, expect to see this at the fall festivals

 

Conclave (Focus)

On paper, a Robert Harris thriller doesn’t seem like a film tailor-made to get the Academy’s attention. I see this film most likely going the way of fellow Robert Harris adaptation The Ghost Writer (which was shut out at the Oscars) or fellow Peter Straughan screenplay Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (which received nominations in Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Score). With Focus Features giving the Edward Berger-directed film a prime early November release date, I think this is more likely to go the way of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy than The Ghost Writer. ‘Soldier Spy’ was a top 12 Best Picture contender back in 2012 and I think there’s a pretty good chance Conclave will be as well. Ralph Fiennes should be an Actor contender like Oldman was in 2012 and don’t be surprised if Stanley Tucci or John Lithgow make it in as well. 

 

Gladiator 2 (Paramount)

This could be good. The cast is absolutely loaded, Denzel Washington, Pedro Pascal, Paul Mescal are joining a cast that features Connie Nielsen, Joseph Quinn, and Derek Jacobi from the original Best Picture winning Gladiator. However, Ridley Scott hasn’t made a Best Picture-nominated film since The Martian in 2016 and it seems like he tries every other year. The Last Duel, Napoleon, House of Gucci, and All The Money in the World all seemed like attempts for Oscar attention but every one of them came up short and didn’t earn Best Picture nods. Gladiator 2 seems like the kind of big event picture that could change that. The film’s ceiling to me is Top Gun: Maverick (funnily enough, the original Top Gun was directed by Ridley’s brother, the late great Tony Scott), a popular blockbuster decades in the making that appeals to both the Academy’s old guard and younger cohort. Even if the film isn’t that popular, expect it to get nods in Costume Design and Production Design at the very least. Acting nominations are also a possibility here, with Mescal, Washington, and Pascal all being possible contenders. 

 

Could Jump In:

Didi (Focus)

The winner of the Audience Award at Sundance, Didi could follow in the footsteps of Minari and CODA and turn that Sundance win into a Best Picture nod. Focus is giving it a July 26 release date so either they don’t see it going past the Gothams and Spirits or they are playing the strategy Apple attempted with CODA back in 2022 when it won Best Picture as that film hit theaters August 13th. If the latter is the case and Focus is going to give Didi a proper campaign, expect nominations in Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actress for the legendary Joan Chen. 

 

Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)

Legendary English filmmaker Mike Leigh has been nominated for seven Oscars over two decades and yet has never won the coveted prize. His newest film reunites him with Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who starred in Leigh’s five-time Oscar nominated Secrets and Lies. If Hard Truths is amazing it can get nominated but amazing reviews are essential for this film’s nomination chances. If it gets great reviews, expect nominations in Picture, Actress for Jean-Baptiste, and Screenplay. Bleecker Street as the distributor gives me pause since they haven’t had a Picture nominee in years but if Hard Truths is amazingly received, the film will sell itself. Expect this film at Venice this year. 

 

Joker 2 (Warner Bros.)

Joker was the surprise Oscar smash of the 2020 season. After stunningly winning the Golden Lion at the 2019 Venice Film Festival, Joker went on to become a top 5 Picture contender, receiving 11 nominations and 2 wins. Will Joker 2 have the same kind of success? Star Joaquin Phoenix and director Todd Phillips are returning with Lady Gaga joining the film as Harley Quinn. The film is apparently a musical and with Emilia Perez seemingly more likely to get a Picture nod, I doubt two crime drama musicals will make the Best Picture slate. I also admittedly am not too confident lightning will strike twice with this franchise’s Oscar chances and am hesitant about predicting it for anything other than Makeup, Sound, and Costume Design.  

 

Furiosa (Warner Bros.)

The third of the Warner Bros. blockbusters that are follow-ups to films that were incredibly successful at the Oscars, Furiosa was initially one of my Best Picture predictions back in early May. However, after the film flopped at the box office, I think Warner Bros. will pivot all their intention to their other desert-based franchise film, Dune: Part Two. However, that doesn’t mean Furiosa will be shut out. Expect this film to be nominated in Sound, Visual Effects, Makeup and Hairstyling, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and maybe even Editing. 

 

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)

Neon clearly knows how to campaign Cannes films. Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, and Anatomy of a Fall were all Palme D’Or winners that were guided on their path to Best Picture nominations by the indie distributor. However, the distributor has not managed to deliver two nominees in the same year and with Anora being a possible Best Picture winner, that means that The Seed of the Sacred Fig could very easily be lost in the shuffle. Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof was arrested for criticizing the Iranian government for its crackdown on protestors. His film is a gripping crime thriller that tackles systemic gender discrimination in Iran and could receive a major campaign since there is absolutely no way Iran will be submitting it for International Feature. If the film receives as much attention as it should, I can see it getting a sole screenplay nod like fellow Iranian director Asghar Farhadi’s A Separation did in 2012.

 

The Piano Lesson (Netflix)

The last two Denzel Washington-produced August Wilson adaptations Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received four and five Oscar nods respectively and three Oscar wins between them. Will The Piano Lesson have the same success? It doesn’t look like Netflix thinks so. They’ve opted for a July release with the film, indicating to me that they don’t see it as an awards player. It’s the debut feature of Malcolm Washington, Denzel’s 33 year old son. If it’s amazing, I could see this becoming Netflix’s top priority but for now I am not too optimistic about its chances, though acting (especially Danielle Deadwyler in her supporting role), screenplay, costume design, production design, and makeup and hairstyling are all possible nominations.

 

Challengers (Amazon MGM)

A contender for the best film of the first half of 2024, Challengers is a sexy sports thriller featuring electrifying performances from its central threesome of Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist. While the film is loved by many, I don’t see it getting anything past a possible Screenplay nod or a nomination for one of its three stars. If anything, it’ll function best as a vehicle to show how amazing Luca Guadagnino has had when he’s on the campaign circuit for Queer.

 

The End (NEON)

The Act of Killing is one of the most acclaimed films of the past 15 years. It cemented Joshua Oppenheimer as someone to watch no matter what he comes out with next. His next film The End is being described as a Golden Age-style musical about the last human family. That logline sounds absolutely fascinating and from a filmmaker as ambitiously visionary as Oppenheimer, great things can be expected. However, little is known about the project and it may not even be released this year. With a cast including Tilda Swinton, Michael Shannon, Moses Ingram, and George MacKay, expect major things from this film when it eventually sees the light of day.

 

We Live in Time (A24)

Director John Crowley has had a career of ups and downs. While 2015’s Brooklyn was one of the most critically acclaimed films of its year and received three Oscar nominations including Best Picture, his 2019 follow up feature The Goldfinch starring Ansel Elgort, Nicole Kidman, and Jeffrey Wright was a bust and panned by critics and audiences alike. With his romance drama We Live In Time, Crowley hopes to bounce back and with a pair of phenomenal performers in Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield, he may be able to do just that.

 

The Room Next Door (Sony Classics)

While his 2002 masterpiece Talk to Her won Best Original Screenplay and was nominated for Best Director, none of Pedro Almodovar’s films have been nominated for Best Picture. Almodovar’s films still remain popular with the Academy, his last two features Pain and Glory and Parallel Mothers both received acting nominations for their leading stars (Antonio Banderas and Penelope Cruz respectively). While The Room Next Door hasn’t been confirmed this year, it would be Almodovar’s first English-language film of his career. Starring Tilda Swinton, Julianne Moore, and John Turturro, this drama seems poised for acting and screenplay nominations once it comes out.

 

Maria (TBA)

Pablo Larrain’s last two English language films Jackie and Spencer earned Best Actress nominations for their respective leading ladies Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart. With her performance as Maria Callas in Larrain’s newest, Angelina Jolie hopes to follow in Portman and Stewart’s footsteps. A nomination for her is pretty likely especially if the film and her performance are received well at Venice.

 

The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM)

While a sports drama directed by Black Panther cinematographer and written by Barry Jenkins sounds enticing on paper, I don’t see this film as being much more than a vehicle for a Brian Tyree Henry supporting nod. But who knows, maybe this film will play as well as King Richard did and become the inspirational true story sports drama that takes multiple above-the-line nods including Picture, acting, and screenplay.

 

All We Imagine as Light (Janus)

Payal Kapadia is one of my favorite filmmakers working today just from her debut The Night of Knowing Nothing about anti-caste protests in India. All We Imagine is Light is the highest-rated feature film on Metacritic of the year so far and while Kapadia’s film is likely too quiet for the Academy’s tastes, a Drive My Car-style groundswell campaign from the critics isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

 

Hand of Dante (TBA)

Julian Schnabel earned a surprise nomination for At Eternity’s Gate star Willem Dafoe back in 2019, can he do the same for Hand of Dante lead Oscar Isaac? While it is possible, Dafoe was also playing a known commodity in Vincent Van Gogh which undoubtedly helped him towards that nomination. However, Hand of Dante looks to be an especially ambitious film featuring names like Al Pacino, Gerard Butler, Martin Scorsese, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, and John Malkovich. Don’t count this film out and I’m excited to see how it’s received once it inevitably hits festivals.

 

His Three Daughters (Netflix)

Azazel Jacobs’ last feature French Exit was supposed to be an Oscar nod comeback vehicle for star Michelle Pfeiffer. That did not pan out and while Jacobs’ newest has much better reviews, I am still skeptical on Natasha Lyonne and Elisabeth Olsen’s chances for their work in film. While I think it’s possible that Lyonne specifically gets a Supporting Actress nod for her work in the film, I think it’s unlikely since the film seems too small. But if either of these actresses get big enough of a critics push, they can make it in come nominations morning.

 

Juror #2 (Warner Bros.)

Clint Eastwood has not been successful with the Academy with the last couple films he directed. However, Juror #2 is rumored to be the last film of his career and the Academy could choose to send off one of the most iconic figures in Hollywood history, for better or worse, with some sort of nomination. If the film is just OK, expect the film to get shut out completely, but if it’s good, we could see possible acting nominations for Eastwood in Lead Actor and Toni Collete in Supporting Actress.

 

Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight)

After the success of Poor Things last year, Yorgos Lanthimos is one of the hottest commodities in Hollywood. While Kinds of Kindness anthology format and good not great reviews will keep it from a Best Picture nomination, it could go the Ballad of Buster Scruggs route and surprise with a Screenplay nomination.

 

Mufasa: The Lion King

This movie wouldn’t be on anyone’s radar if it wasn’t for the participation of the one and only Barry Jenkins. The first live-action Lion King was limited to a Visual Effects nomination and Jenkins’ version is a contender in Animated Feature and Visual Effects. If acclaimed enough, the film may even be a possible winner in either of those categories and a possible nominee in a category like Sound.

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen – Blitz

Denis Villenueve – Dune: Part Two

Luca Guadagnino – Queer

Sean Baker – Anora

Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – Gladiator 2, Mike Leigh – Hard Truths, Joshua Oppenheimer – The End, RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing, Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Sean Wang – Didi, Yorgos Lanthimos – Kinds of Kindness, George Miller – Furiosa, Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis

 

BEST ACTOR

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Daniel Craig – Queer

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

Paul Mescal – Gladiator 2

Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time

Could Jump In: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie a Deux, Jesse Plemmons – Kinds of Kindness, Timothee Chalamet – Dune: Part Two, Oscar Isaac – Hand of Dante, Clint Eastwood – Juror#2

 

BEST ACTRESS

Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

Angelina Jolie – Maria

Mikey Madison – Anora

Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths

Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

Could Jump In: Tilda Swinton or Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door, Lady Gaga – Jolie: Folie a Deux

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

Denzel Washington – Gladiator 2

Stephen Graham – Blitz

Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

Could Jump In: Pedro Pascal – Gladiator 2, Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice, Harris Dickinson – Blitz, Daveed Diggs – Nickel Boys, Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside, Stanley Tucci – Conclave, John Lithgow – Conclave, Mike Faist – Challengers, Austin Butler – Dune: Part Two, John Turturro – The Room Next Door, Al Pacino – Hand of Dante

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys

Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (if supporting)

Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

Lesley Manville – Queer

Joan Chen – Didi

Could Jump In: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson, Toni Colette – Juror #2, Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez, Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice, Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine, Isabella Rossellini – Conclave, Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora

Blitz

A Real Pain

Kinds of Kindness

Hard Truths

Could Jump In: Didi, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Room Next Door, The Fire Inside

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Queer

Sing Sing

The Nickel Boys

Conclave

The Piano Lesson

Could Jump In: Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Gladiator 2

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Inside Out 2

The Wild Robot

Mufasa: The Lion King

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Flow

Could Jump In: Moana 2, Ultraman: Rising

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator 2

Blitz

Furiosa

Nickel Boys

Could Jump In: Joker 2. Maria, Conclave, Emilia Perez

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune: Part Two

Furiosa

Queer

Gladiator 2

Nosferatu

Could Jump In: Maria, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Dune: Part Two

Blitz

Gladiator 2

Furiosa

Maria

Could Jump In: Wicked, Nosferatu, Joker 2, Nickel Boys

 

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune: Part Two

Blitz

Anora

Gladiator 2

Emilia Perez

Could Jump In: Conclave, Joker 2, The Fire Inside

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Dune: Part Two

Furiosa

Nosferatu

Joker 2

Wicked

Could Jump In: Maria, Gladiator 2, Nickel Boys

 

BEST SOUND

Dune: Part Two

Furiosa

Blitz

Gladiator 2

Joker 2

Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune: Part Two

Mufasa: The Lion King

Furiosa

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator 2

Queer

Mufasa: The Lion King

Conclave

Could Jump In: Maria, Joker: Folie a Deux, Sing Sing, The Room Next Door, Challengers

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Boy and the Heron is competitive here and can’t be underestimated. It’s animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s final film (though knowing him he’s probably working on another) and one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year in its own right. However, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is more critically-acclaimed and has more audience love. With the kind of love it has, it would’ve been nominated for Best Picture if it wasn’t animated, but alas, this is the world we live in.

Nominees:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – PGA, Annie, CCA

The Boy and the Heron – GG, BAFTA

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Elemental

Pick: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

This one seems pretty obvious. The Zone of Interest is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in other categories as well; it has this in the bag.

Nominees:

The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

Society of the Snow

Perfect Days

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io Capitano

Pick: The Zone of Interest

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No winner in this category in the past eight years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominee that fits that criterion is 20 Days in Mariupol. And it was not only nominated for BAFTA and DGA, but it also won both. By far the highest-profile doc of the bunch, ‘Mariupol’ is almost guaranteed to take this.

Nominees: 

20 Days in Mariupol – DGA, BAFTA

Bobi Wine: The People’s President – IDA

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

Pick: 20 Days in Mariupol