05 Mar Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
After being the first non-English language film to win a Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, Anatomy of a Fall has launched itself to the top contender in this category. While The Holdovers and Past Lives are worthy contenders, writing (and real life) partners Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s nuanced examination of marriage, family and regret is the best screenplay of the year and has deservedly been sweeping up awards left and right on the road to its final bout at the Oscars. While The Holdovers is a possible upset here, Anatomy of a Fall will win nowhere else, and The Holdovers is basically guaranteed to take Supporting Actress so expect Triet and Harari to see a groundswell of support here.
Nominees:
Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA, GG
The Holdovers
Past Lives
May December
Maestro
Pick: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
While some people have Oppenheimer winning here, I don’t see Nolan sweeping Picture, Director, and Screenplay. The fact that Oppenheimer has hardly won anywhere for Screenplay is indicative that most think that there are worthier contenders here. To me, this is between American Fiction and Barbie, two satires that blend comedy, drama, and a sociocultural consciousness. American Fiction clearly has much more industry love than its box office would suggest. Part of me thinks that if a movie called American Fiction can take this category at BAFTA, it can win anywhere. But does American Fiction have the love needed? It seems like it does, it’s nominations in Supporting Actor and Original Score were not predicted by many. Also in its favor is that while Oppenheimer and Barbie will be awarded elsewhere, this is American Fiction’s best chance for Oscar gold. Speaking of Barbie, a month and a half ago, Gerwig seemed like the obvious winner here. Barbie was presumably the zeitgeisty satire that had popular support and would take a screenplay win like Get Out in 2018. However, Barbie missed in both Director and Actress and while the amount of outrage that resulted could help it here, that outcry didn’t seem to have an effect on the film’s performance at BAFTA, SAG, ADG, etc.
Nominees:
American Fiction – BAFTA, USC, CCA
Barbie – CCA*
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
*Barbie won in the Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards
Pick: American Fiction