Tag: oscars 2024

  • Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    VENICE

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In seven of the past eight years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from this month, I have one of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. However, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door, Todd Phillips’s Joker: Folie a Deux, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Pablo Larrain’s Maria, and Justin Kurzel’s The Order are films to look out for. If any one of these films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.

    Here is the Venice slate for this year:

    In Competition

    The Room Next Door, dir. Pedro Almodóvar

    Campo di Battaglia (Battleground), dir. Gianni Amelio

    Leurs enfants après eux (And Their Children After Them), dir. Ludovic Boukherma, Zoran Boukherma

    The Brutalist, dir. Brady Corbet

    Jouer avec le feu (The Quiet Son), dir. Delphine Coulin, Muriel Coulin

    Vermiglio, dir. Maura Delpero

    Iddu (Sicilian Letters), dir. Fabio Grassadonia, Antonio Piazza

    Queer, dir. Luca Guadagnino

    Kjærlighet (Love), dir. Dag Johan Haugerud

    April, dir. Dea Kulumbegashvili

    The Order, dir. Justin Kurzel

    Maria, dir. Pablo Larraín

    Trois amies (Three Friends), dir. Emmanuel Mouret

    Kill the Jockey, dir. Luis Ortega

    Joker: Folie à Deux, dir. Todd Phillips

    Babygirl, dir. Halina Reijn

    Ainda estou aqui (I’m Still Here), dir. Walter Salles

    Diva Futura, dir. Giulia Louise Steigerwalt

    Harvest, dir. Athina Rachel Tsangari

    Qing chun gui (Youth – Homecoming), dir. Wang Bing

    Stranger Eyes, dir. Yeo Siew Hua

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, dir. Tim Burton

    L’orto americano (The American Backyard), dir. Pupi Avati

    Il tempo che ci vuole, dir. Francesca Comencini

    Phantosmia, dir. Lav Diaz

    Maldoror, dir. Fabrice du Welz

    Broken Rage, dir. Takeshi Kitano

    Baby Invasion, dir. Harmony Korine

    Cloud, dir. Kurosawa Kiyoshi

    Finalement (Finally), dir. Claude Lelouch

    Wolfs, dir. Jon Watts

    Se posso permettermi Capitolo II, dir. Marco Bellocchio

    Allégorie citadine (An Urban Allegory), dir. Alice Rohrwacher, JR

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 8 years:

    2023 – In Competition: Poor Things (Golden Lion winner), Maestro

    2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Queer, Joker: Folie a Deux, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Maria, The Order, and Wolfs. Like with Joker back in 2019, Warner Bros. has submitted ‘Folie a Deux’ in competition at the festival, possibly indicating their confidence in its quality. There’s never been a year with three blockbuster sequels in the Best Picture nominee slate but if Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 play well, we could see them join Dune 2 as Best Picture nominees.

    This is the rest of the Venice slate:

     

    Out of Competition (Non-Fiction)

    Apocalipse nos trópicos (Apocalypse in the Tropics), dir. Petra Costa

    Bestiari, erbari, lapidari (Bestiaries, Herbaria, Lapidaries), dir. Massimo D’Anolfi, Martina Parenti

    Why War, dir. Amos Gitai

    2073, dir. Asif Kapadia

    One to One: John & Yoko, dir. Kevin Macdonald, Sam Rice-Edwards

    Separated, dir. Errol Morris

    Israel Palestina på svensk TV 1958-1989 (Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989), dir. Göran Hugo Olsson

    Russians at War, dir. Anastasia Trofimova

    TWST / Things We Said Today, dir. Andrei Ujică

    Riefenstahl, dir. Andres Veiel

    Pisni zemli, shcho povilno (Songs of Slow Burning Earth), dir. Olha Zhurba

    Out of Competition (Series)

    Disclaimer (Chapters 1 – 7), dir. Alfonso Cuarón

    Los años nuevos (The New Years) (Ep. 1 – 10), dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen del Amo, Sandra Romero, David Martín de los Santos

    Familier som vores (Families Like Ours) (Ep. 1 – 7), dir. Thomas Vinterberg

    M – Il figlio del secolo (M – Son of the Century) (Ep. 1 – 8), dir. Joe Wright

    Out of Competition (Special Screenings)

    Leopardi. The Poet of the Infinity (Part 1 & 2), dir. Sergio Rubini

    Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, dir. Peter Weir

    Beauty Is Not a Sin, dir. Nicolas Winding Refn

    Horizons Competition

    Nonostante, dir. Valerio Mastandrea

    Quiet Life, dir. Alexandros Avranas

    Mon inséparable (My Everything), dir. Anne-Sophie Bailly

    Aïcha, dir. Mehdi Barsaoui

     

    TORONTO

    In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF six times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Sean Baker’s Anora, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Edward Berger’s Conclave, Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson, Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light, Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch, John Crowley’s We Live in Time, and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside are some of the most high-profile films being shown. Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing which is undoubtedly in the running this year as a major Best Picture nominee contender, played at TIFF last year.

     

    Galas 2024

    *previously announced

    “Andrea Bocelli: Because I Believe,” Cosima Spender | UK
    World Premiere

    “Better Man,” Michael Gracey | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs,” Embeth Davidtz | South Africa
    Canadian Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Eden,” Ron Howard | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Elton John: Never Too Late,” R.J. Cutler, David Furnish | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Harbin,” Woo Min-ho | South Korea
    World Premiere

    “Meet the Barbarians,” Julie Delpy | France
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Nutcrackers,” David Gordon Green | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Oh, Canada,” Paul Schrader | USA
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band,” Thom Zimny | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Superboys of Malegaon,” Reema Kagti | India
    World Premiere

    *“The Deb,” Rebel Wilson | Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Friend,” Scott McGehee, David Siegel | USA
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Penguin Lessons,” Peter Cattaneo | Spain/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Return,” Uberto Pasolini | Italy/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Shrouds,” David Cronenberg | Canada/France
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Wild Robot,” Chris Sanders | USA
    World Premiere

    “Unstoppable,“ William Goldenberg | USA
    World Premiere

    “Will & Harper,” Josh Greenbaum | USA
    International Premiere

    Special Presentations 2024

    *Previously announced

    “40 Acres,” R.T. Thorne | Canada
    World Premiere

    “All of You,” William Bridges | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “All We Imagine as Light,” Payal Kapadia | France/India/Netherlands/Luxembourg
    Canadian Premiere

    “Anora,” Sean Baker | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Bird,” Andrea Arnold | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere

    “Bring Them Down,” Christopher Andrews | Ireland/Belgium
    World Premiere

    “Can I Get A Witness?” Ann Marie Fleming | Canada
    World Premiere

    “Carnival is Over,” Fernando Coimbra | Brazil/Portugal
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Caught by the Tides,” Jia Zhang-Ke | China
    North American Premiere

    “Conclave,” Edward Berger | USA/United Kingdom
    International Premiere

    “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard | France/USA/Mexico
    Canadian Premiere

    “Hard Truths,” Mike Leigh | United Kingdom/Spain
    World Premiere

    “Harvest,” Athina Rachel Tsangari | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Heretic,” Scott Beck, Bryan Woods | Canada
    World Premiere

    “I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles | Brazil/France
    North American Premiere

    “I, the Executioner,” Ryoo Seung-wan | South Korea
    North American Premiere

    *“K-Pops,” Anderson .Paak | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Love in the Big City,” E.oni | South Korea
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Millers in Marriage,” Edward Burns | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Misericordia,” Alain Guiraudie | Spain/Portugal/France
    Canadian Premiere

    *“Nightbitch,” Marielle Heller | USA
    World Premiere

    “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni | Zambia/United Kingdom/Ireland
    North American Premiere

    “Piece by Piece,” Morgan Neville | USA
    International Premiere

    “Quisling – The Final Days,” Erik Poppe | Norway
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Relay,” David Mackenzie | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rez Ball,” Sydney Freeland | USA
    World Premiere

    “Riff Raff,” Dito Montiel | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rumours,” Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson | Canada/Germany
    North American Premiere

    “Sharp Corner,” Jason Buxton | Canada/Ireland
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Shepherds,” Sophie Deraspe | Canada/France
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Sketch,” Seth Worley | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Assessment,” Fleur Fortuné | United Kingdom/Germany/USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Cut,” Sean Ellis | United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The End,” Joshua Oppenheimer | Denmark/UK
    Canadian Premiere

    “The Fire,” Inside Rachel Morrison | USA
    World Premiere

    “The Girl with the Needle,” Magnus von Horn | Denmark/Poland/Sweden
    North American Premiere

    “The Last Showgirl,” Gia Coppola | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Life of Chuck,” Mike Flanagan | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Order,” Justin Kurzel | Canada/USA
    North American Premiere

    “The Piano Lesson,” Malcolm Washington | USA
    International Premiere

    *“We Live in Time,” John Crowley | United Kingdom/France
    World Premiere

    “Went Up the Hill,” Samuel Van Grinsven | New Zealand/Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Without Blood,” Angelina Jolie | USA/Italy
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Young Werther,” José Avelino Gilles Corbett Lourenço | Canada
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 11 years:

    2023 – Special Presentations: American Fiction (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), The Zone of Interest

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, and The End

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions

    After almost a year of predicting, the day is finally here. I’ve been predicting this year’s race since March and while this year has been generally easier to forecast than most (I had predicted five of the eventual Best Picture nominees by May), it’s still had its twists and turns. The 96th Academy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the fourth time and broadcasted on ABC on Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. CST. This was a year of auteur blockbusters (Oppenheimer and Barbie), indie word-of-mouth hits (Poor Things and Past Lives) and passion projects from names we’ve seen here for decades (Killers of the Flower Moon and The Holdovers). It’s one of the few years where I can say that almost every film nominated deserves to be considered some of the best of the year (biggest exception being Maestro). But without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions:

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST PICTURE:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    Winner: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST ACTOR:

    Winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

     

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)

    BEST ACTRESS:

    Winner: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Steal: Emma Stone – Poor Things

     

    ;Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

    Winner: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

    ‘The Holdovers’ (Focus)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

    Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ (NEON)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Steal: The Holdovers

     

    ‘American Fiction’ (MGM)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    Winner: American Fiction

    Could Steal: Barbie or Oppenheimer

     

    ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ (Sony)

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

    Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Could Steal: The Boy and the Heron

     

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

    Winner: Poor Things

    Could Steal: Barbie

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

    Winner: Barbie

    Could Steal: Poor Things

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST FILM EDITING:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

    Winner: Poor Things

    Could Steal: Maestro

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST SOUND:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: The Zone of Interest

     

    ‘Godzilla Minus One’ (Toho)

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

    Winner: Godzilla Minus One

    Could Steal: The Creator

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

    Winner: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

    Could Steal: Barbie – “I’m Just Ken”

     

    ‘The Zone of Interest’ (A24)

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

    Winner: The Zone of Interest

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ’20 Days in Mariupol’ (PBS)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

    Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Ninety-Five Senses’ (Documentary+)

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

    Winner: Ninety-Five Senses

    Could Steal: Letter to a Pig or WAR is OVER

     

    ;The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar’ (Netflix)

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

    Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

    Could Steal: Red, White, and Blue

     

    ‘The Last Repair Shop’ (LA Times/Searchlight)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

    Winner: The Last Repair Shop

    Could Steal: The ABCs of Book Banning or Nai Nai and Wai Po

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    I love it when the biggest award of the night is the easiest to predict. Christopher Nolan, a beloved auteur for over a decade has made his foray into an Academy favorite: the historical biopic. Not only did Oppenheimer become the highest grossing historical biopic of all time worldwide, but the film also became the second highest grossing rated R film ever in terms of worldwide box office. When film historians look back on 2023, many will see this past year as the year of Barbenheimer. While both Barbie and Oppenheimer tapped into the cultural zeitgeist in a major way, Oppenheimer was clearly the more critically-acclaimed of the two and the favorite among film aficionados (Oppenheimer has a 4.2 on Letterboxd while Barbie has a 3.9). To many, Oppenheimer was the movie that showed Hollywood that films with serious themes could have major commercial success. For people like Martin Scorsese and Francis Ford Coppola, the Barbenheimer phenomena was a cause for optimism for the future of Hollywood cinema. Like Everything Everywhere All at Once last year, Oppenheimer is a sign that auteur-driven dramas can be cultural events and that’s something everyone in Hollywood can get behind.

    Nominees:

    Oppenheimer– GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, DGA, CCA, BAFTA

    Poor Things – GG (Comedy/Musical)

    The Holdovers

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The Zone of Interest

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    American Fiction

    Barbie

    Past Lives

    Maestro

    Pick: Oppenheimer

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Christopher Nolan has been an Oscars bridesmaid for over two decades. He’s been nominated for eight and somehow Nolan’s second Directing nomination came just this year. On Sunday, the Academy will finally reward one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of the 21st century with his first gold statue.

    Nominees:

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

    Pick: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    If Cillian Murphy hadn’t won SAG, this would be a very competitive category. But as it stands right now, CCA is the only major precursor where Murphy did not triumph. A beloved character actor for years, Murphy turns in one of the most acclaimed turns of the year in a biopic that also happens to soon be this year’s Best Picture winner. He has the narrative he needs and this is his time.

    Nominees:

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, BAFTA, SAG

    Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – CCA

    Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Pick: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    BEST ACTRESS

    The most difficult to predict of the acting categories, this race will come down to the two stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While Stone has won Best Actress at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, Lily Gladstone won at the Screen Actors Guild, which is exactly what Michelle Yeoh had won when she won in this category last year. Stone is a previous winner as well (for La La Land), and the passion to award her likely won’t be as strong as it will be for Gladstone, who has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated in the category. Both are very worthy, though, so either way one of the best performances of the year will be awarded here. Interestingly, Yeoh, the first Asian actress to win Lead Actress, and Halle Berry, the first Black actress to win Lead Actress both won just SAG en route to their historic success. I think Gladstone will follow their example. It’s important to mention that Yeoh’s film was a Best Picture winner and Poor Things is a bigger BP contender than Killers of the Flower Moon is. But, at the same time, KOTFM will likely not win anywhere else while Poor Things has very strong chances elsewhere. If KOTFM gets completely snubbed, it will fall in the trend of Scorsese films racking up 10 nods and winning none (see: Gangs of New York and The Irishman).

    Nominees:

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, SAG

    Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Carey Mulligan – Maestro

    Annette Bening – Nyad

    Pick: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert Downey Jr. winning here is one of most locked wins of the night. He has won every major precursor leading up to now and has probably one of the best narratives any actor could want (young ingenue-troubled times-rebounds as massive blockbuster star-kills serious biopic role).

    Nominees: 

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Ryan Gosling – Barbie

    Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

    Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Pick: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Da’ Vine Joy Randolph has cleaned up practically every precursor here, even the minor ones. There is just no one even approaching her level this year.

    Nominees:

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

    Jodie Foster – Nyad

    America Ferrara – Barbie

    Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    After being the first non-English language film to win a Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, Anatomy of a Fall has launched itself to the top contender in this category. While The Holdovers and Past Lives are worthy contenders, writing (and real life) partners Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s nuanced examination of marriage, family and regret is the best screenplay of the year and has deservedly been sweeping up awards left and right on the road to its final bout at the Oscars. While The Holdovers is a possible upset here, Anatomy of a Fall will win nowhere else, and The Holdovers is basically guaranteed to take Supporting Actress so expect Triet and Harari to see a groundswell of support here.

    Nominees:

    Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA, GG

    The Holdovers

    Past Lives

    May December

    Maestro

    Pick: Anatomy of a Fall

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    While some people have Oppenheimer winning here, I don’t see Nolan sweeping Picture, Director, and Screenplay. The fact that Oppenheimer has hardly won anywhere for Screenplay is indicative that most think that there are worthier contenders here. To me, this is between American Fiction and Barbie, two satires that blend comedy, drama, and a sociocultural consciousness. American Fiction clearly has much more industry love than its box office would suggest. Part of me thinks that if a movie called American Fiction can take this category at BAFTA, it can win anywhere. But does American Fiction have the love needed? It seems like it does, it’s nominations in Supporting Actor and Original Score were not predicted by many. Also in its favor is that while Oppenheimer and Barbie will be awarded elsewhere, this is American Fiction’s best chance for Oscar gold. Speaking of Barbie, a month and a half ago, Gerwig seemed like the obvious winner here. Barbie was presumably the zeitgeisty satire that had popular support and would take a screenplay win like Get Out in 2018. However, Barbie missed in both Director and Actress and while the amount of outrage that resulted could help it here, that outcry didn’t seem to have an effect on the film’s performance at BAFTA, SAG, ADG, etc.

    Nominees: 

    American Fiction – BAFTA, USC, CCA

    Barbie – CCA*

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    *Barbie won in the Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards

    Pick: American Fiction

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Oppenheimer has won every major precursor here and is this year’s Best Picture winner, it’s taking this.

    Nominees:

    Oppenheimer – ACE (Drama), CCA, BAFTA

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The Holdovers – ACE (Comedy/Musical)

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    Pick: Oppenheimer

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Oppenheimer has won every major precursor here and is this year’s Best Picture winner, it’s taking this. The level of innovation Hoyte van Hoytema and his team spearheaded for this film is unparalleled and makes Oppenheimer a very deserving winner here.

    Nominees:

    Oppenheimer – BAFTA, CCA, ASC

    Poor Things

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Maestro

    El Conde

    Pick: Oppenheimer

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Like with Production Design, this is a battle between Poor Things and Barbie. With the costuming mimicking existing Barbie doll outfits, Barbie’s costuming will likely be seen as more of an intrinsic part of the film than its production design, though that might be up for debate. Either way, I’m going to cover my bases and give Poor Things production design and Barbie costume design since those are the categories where each film has done the best in terms of precursor wins.

    Nominees: 

    Barbie – CCA, CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

    Poor Things – BAFTA, CDG (Period)

    Oppenheimer

    Napoleon

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Pick: Barbie

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    While we didn’t see this last year, Sound and Editing have gone hand in hand in the last few years. Oppenheimer is locked for both. While The Zone of Interest won Sound at the BAFTAs, that would be too inspired of a pick for the Oscars so expect Oppenheimer to take this.

    Nominees:

    Oppenheimer– MPSE (2x), CAS

    The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

    Maestro – MPSE

    The Creator

    Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

    Pick: Oppenheimer

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year, the two awards bodies split, with the Globes awarding Barbie’s “What Was I Made For?” and the CCA awarding Barbie’s “I’m Just Ken”. What Was I Made For? is a Grammy winner and has more precursor success. Something that’s seen as mostly a comedy track more than anything else like I’m Just Ken usually won’t win with the Academy, especially when something as competitive as What Was I Made For is a fellow nominee. While I’m Just Ken is possible and would be an awesome winner, What Was I Made For? fits the mold of songs that win here to a much higher degree.

    Nominees:

    Barbie – “What Was I Made For?” – GG

    Barbie – “I’m Just Ken” – CCA

    Killers of the Flower Moon – “Wahzhazhe – A Song For My People”

    American Symphony – “It Never Went Away”

    Flamin’ Hot – “The Fire Inside”

    Pick: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Oppenheimer’s score is an instant classic and as the inevitable Best Picture winner, this category is Ludwig Goransson’s for the taking.

    Nominees:

    Oppenheimer – BAFTA, CCA, GG

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Poor Things

    American Fiction

    Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

    Pick: Oppenheimer

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    The Boy and the Heron is competitive here and can’t be underestimated. It’s animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s final film (though knowing him he’s probably working on another) and one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year in its own right. However, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is more critically-acclaimed and has more audience love. With the kind of love it has, it would’ve been nominated for Best Picture if it wasn’t animated, but alas, this is the world we live in.

    Nominees:

    Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse – PGA, Annie, CCA

    The Boy and the Heron – GG, BAFTA

    Nimona

    Robot Dreams

    Elemental

    Pick: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one seems pretty obvious. The Zone of Interest is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in other categories as well; it has this in the bag.

    Nominees:

    The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

    Society of the Snow

    Perfect Days

    The Teachers’ Lounge

    Io Capitano

    Pick: The Zone of Interest

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    No winner in this category in the past eight years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominee that fits that criterion is 20 Days in Mariupol. And it was not only nominated for BAFTA and DGA, but it also won both. By far the highest-profile doc of the bunch, ‘Mariupol’ is almost guaranteed to take this.

    Nominees: 

    20 Days in Mariupol – DGA, BAFTA

    Bobi Wine: The People’s President – IDA

    The Eternal Memory

    Four Daughters

    To Kill a Tiger

    Pick: 20 Days in Mariupol

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    These categories are hell to predict. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. Each of the last six winners in this category have had an IMDb score of at least 6.9. This year’s frontrunner is Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and the question is will it suffer the same fate as last year’s high-profile inclusion in this category, the Alice Rohrwacher-directed Le Pupille that was also produced by Alfonso Cuaron. That film had a 6.7 IMDb score, and its slightness was one of the main reasons I didn’t predict it in this category last year. However, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has a score of 7.4 and has been pretty widely watched. Its biggest competition is the abortion rights drama Red, White, and Blue, which may be the most emotionally powerful of the films in this category. It has a strong chance but I think Wes Anderson and ‘Henry Sugar’ may just be too big and too well-liked, especially since this is the Academy’s chance to give Wes his first Oscar on his eighth nomination.

    Nominees:

    The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

    Red, White, and Blue

    The After

    Knight of Fortune

    Invincible

    Pick: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 6.8 on IMDb. Of the three biggest contenders in this category, Letter to a Pig, War is Over, and Ninety-Five Senses, Ninety-Five Senses has the highest score with a 7.4 in comparison to Letter to a Pig’s 6.6, and War is Over’s 6.3. Ninety-Five Senses is exactly the kind of film the Academy likes to award in the shorts category, a life-affirming piece with a big emotional gut punch. I can never be too confident about my prediction in one of these categories, but I feel really good about this one.

    Nominees:

    Ninety-Five Senses

    Letter to a Pig

    War is Over

    Pachyderme

    Our Uniform

    Pick: Ninety-Five Senses

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 7.1 on IMDb. The frontrunner, The ABCs of Book Banning, has a powerful title but also only a 6.3 on IMDb, which to me says that it’s vulnerable for an upset. The Last Repair Shop and Nai Nai and Wai Po are the biggest dark horse contenders with a 7.3 and 7.1 IMDb score each. The Last Repair Shop has a great narrative, the day before Oscar voting started, the Los Angeles School District invested $15 million dollars into the titular L.A.-based repair shop. This was announced at Hollywood High School, which is just blocks away from the home of the Oscar ceremony, the Dolby Theatre. While there’s a chance the issue-driven films ‘Repair Shop’ and ‘Book Banning’, may split votes leading to a ‘Nai Nai’ win, I think The Last Repair Shop should be able to edge everything else out and take this.

    Nominees:

    The Last Repair Shop

    Nai Nai and Wai Po

    The ABCs of Book Banning

    The Barber of Little Rock

    The Island in Between

    Pick: The Last Repair Shop

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (Avatar: The Way of Water, Dune, Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in either an above-the-line category or Production Design (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). They also are all generally critically-acclaimed (all boasting scores 69 and above on Metacritic). Additionally, they are not sequels (Blade Runner 2049 and Avatar: The Way of Water are the only exceptions, yet the Oscars clearly see the Blade Runner and Avatar films as more “elevated” than something like Marvel or Star Wars). They also are all films that were either big box office hits or critically-acclaimed (the exception being Tenet, but that was released during COVID and directed by Christopher Nolan so it had an excuse for its lack of box office success and was seen as “elevated”).

    Of the nominees here, The Creator, Napoleon, and ‘Mission Impossible’ have been nominated in categories outside of Visual Effects. Napoleon and Mission Impossible, however, rely more on practical effects and the Academy isn’t as much of a fan of those effects in this category as they are of CG effects. With this in mind, The Creator should take this but Godzilla Minus One fits all the other requirements. It’s by far the most critically-acclaimed film of the bunch and also has the most love of any of the films here. Even though it’s part of a franchise, the Japanese Godzilla franchise is seen as “elevated” while the American one is not seen as such (as evidenced by the fact that “Minus One” is the first Godzilla film to be nominated here). While “The Creator” might get votes from the old guard and the specifically the Visual Effects branch, I think Godzilla Minus One has much more across the board support and should be able to take this.

    Nominees:

    Godzilla Minus One

    The Creator – VES (5x)

    Napoleon

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – VES (2x)

    Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning – Part One

    Pick: Godzilla Minus One

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2023 – All Quiet on the Western Front

    2022 – Dune – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    Every winner in this category in the last eight years has been a top-7 Best Picture contender. That’s not too helpful of a stat since every nominee here outside of Napoleon is a top-7 Best Picture contender. To me, ADG is the most important precursors here (All Quiet on the Western Front got a nomination there, something it didn’t get at the CCA). Poor Things and Oppenheimer’s wins in their respective categories at ADG is significant especially since Poor Things won over Barbie there. Some might say that Barbie will have more Academy support and Poor Things only won at BAFTA because it’s British and at ADG because while Poor Things’ production design is more appealing to production designers themselves. However, Poor Things, along with Oppenheimer and Anatomy of a Fall is the only other film that received nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Editing. With 11 nominations, it likely has more love with the Academy, especially after the snubs of Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig in their respective categories. While the outrage that came about after their snubs might influence Academy members to be more rewarding towards Barbie, that outrage had no effect on the film’s success at ADG, SAG, BAFTA, etc. As a result, I’m gonna go with Poor Things here.

    Nominees:

    Poor Things – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA

    Barbie – CCA, SDSA

    Oppenheimer – ADG

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    Napoleon

    Pick: Poor Things

     

    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

    2023 – The Whale – MUAH

    2022 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

    2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    The last six winners in this category went to films showcasing famous actors visibly transforming into their characters partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Usually, films need a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild award (MUAH) to take this award but that’s not always the case, The Eyes of Tammy Faye won here without it two years ago. This year, Maestro and Poor Things are the biggest contenders, Maestro has MUAH wins and Poor Things won at BAFTA. Maestro is the front runner and has been for months but it would be a very controversial winner. Since the very first pictures of Bradley Cooper as Leonard Bernstein were released online, the film was accused of “Jewface”, when non-Jewish performers adopt stereotypical and exaggerated features harmful to Jewish people in their performances of Jewish characters. The makeup surrounding Cooper’s nose has been targeted as the main culprit and while there has been little talk of this controversy since December, I think enough Academy members are in the know enough to understand the ramifications of them rewarding Maestro in this category. Poor Things won at BAFTA and has some phenomenal makeup and hairstyling work. While too many people in the Academy are just not conscious enough to recognize things like Jewface, I think that they’ll be aware enough to not reward Maestro here. At least I hope so.

    Nominees:

    Poor Things – BAFTA

    Maestro – MUAH (2x)

    Oppenheimer

    Golda

    Society of the Snow

    Pick: Poor Things