Tag: oscars 2024

After almost a year of predicting, the day is finally here. I’ve been predicting this year’s race since March and while this year has been generally easier to forecast than most (I had predicted five of the eventual Best Picture nominees by May), it’s still had its twists and turns. The 96th Academy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the fourth time and broadcasted on ABC on Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. CST. This was a year of auteur blockbusters (Oppenheimer and Barbie), indie word-of-mouth hits (Poor Things and Past Lives) and passion projects from names we’ve seen here for decades (Killers of the Flower Moon and The Holdovers). It’s one of the few years where I can say that almost every film nominated deserves to be considered some of the best of the year (biggest exception being Maestro). But without further ado…

Here are my FINAL predictions:

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Oppenheimer

Could Steal: No one

BEST DIRECTOR:

Winner: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Could Steal: No one

BEST ACTOR:

Winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Could Steal: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

BEST ACTRESS:

Winner: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Could Steal: Emma Stone – Poor Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Winner: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Could Steal: No one

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Could Steal: No one

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Could Steal: The Holdovers

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Winner: American Fiction

Could Steal: Barbie or Oppenheimer

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Could Steal: The Boy and the Heron

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

Winner: Poor Things

Could Steal: Barbie

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Winner: Oppenheimer

Could Steal: No one

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

Winner: Barbie

Could Steal: Poor Things

BEST FILM EDITING:

Winner: Oppenheimer

Could Steal: No one

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Winner: Poor Things

Could Steal: Maestro

BEST SOUND:

Winner: Oppenheimer

Could Steal: The Zone of Interest

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

Winner: Godzilla Minus One

Could Steal: The Creator

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

Winner: Oppenheimer

Could Steal: No one

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Winner: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

Could Steal: Barbie – “I’m Just Ken”

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

Winner: The Zone of Interest

Could Steal: No one

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Could Steal: No one

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Winner: Ninety-Five Senses

Could Steal: Letter to a Pig or WAR is OVER

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Could Steal: Red, White, and Blue

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Winner: The Last Repair Shop

Could Steal: The ABCs of Book Banning or Nai Nai and Wai Po

BEST PICTURE

I love it when the biggest award of the night is the easiest to predict. Christopher Nolan, a beloved auteur for over a decade has made his foray into an Academy favorite: the historical biopic. Not only did Oppenheimer become the highest grossing historical biopic of all time worldwide, but the film also became the second highest grossing rated R film ever in terms of worldwide box office. When film historians look back on 2023, many will see this past year as the year of Barbenheimer. While both Barbie and Oppenheimer tapped into the cultural zeitgeist in a major way, Oppenheimer was clearly the more critically-acclaimed of the two and the favorite among film aficionados (Oppenheimer has a 4.2 on Letterboxd while Barbie has a 3.9). To many, Oppenheimer was the movie that showed Hollywood that films with serious themes could have major commercial success. For people like Martin Scorsese and Francis Ford Coppola, the Barbenheimer phenomena was a cause for optimism for the future of Hollywood cinema. Like Everything Everywhere All at Once last year, Oppenheimer is a sign that auteur-driven dramas can be cultural events and that’s something everyone in Hollywood can get behind.

BEST ACTOR

If Cillian Murphy hadn’t won SAG, this would be a very competitive category. But as it stands right now, CCA is the only major precursor where Murphy did not triumph. A beloved character actor for years, Murphy turns in one of the most acclaimed turns of the year in a biopic that also happens to soon be this year’s Best Picture winner. He has the narrative he needs and this is his time.

Nominees:

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, BAFTA, SAG

Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – CCA

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Colman Domingo – Rustin

Pick: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

BEST ACTRESS

The most difficult to predict of the acting categories, this race will come down to the two stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While Stone has won Best Actress at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, Lily Gladstone won at the Screen Actors Guild, which is exactly what Michelle Yeoh had won when she won in this category last year. Stone is a previous winner as well (for La La Land), and the passion to award her likely won’t be as strong as it will be for Gladstone, who has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated in the category. Both are very worthy, though, so either way one of the best performances of the year will be awarded here. Interestingly, Yeoh, the first Asian actress to win Lead Actress, and Halle Berry, the first Black actress to win Lead Actress both won just SAG en route to their historic success. I think Gladstone will follow their example. It’s important to mention that Yeoh’s film was a Best Picture winner and Poor Things is a bigger BP contender than Killers of the Flower Moon is. But, at the same time, KOTFM will likely not win anywhere else while Poor Things has very strong chances elsewhere. If KOTFM gets completely snubbed, it will fall in the trend of Scorsese films racking up 10 nods and winning none (see: Gangs of New York and The Irishman).

Nominees:

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, SAG

Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Annette Bening – Nyad

Pick: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert Downey Jr. winning here is one of most locked wins of the night. He has won every major precursor leading up to now and has probably one of the best narratives any actor could want (young ingenue-troubled times-rebounds as massive blockbuster star-kills serious biopic role).

Nominees: 

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Ryan Gosling – Barbie

Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

Pick: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Da’ Vine Joy Randolph has cleaned up practically every precursor here, even the minor ones. There is just no one even approaching her level this year.

Nominees:

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

Jodie Foster – Nyad

America Ferrara – Barbie

Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

BEST FILM EDITING

Oppenheimer has won every major precursor here and is this year’s Best Picture winner, it’s taking this.

Nominees:

Oppenheimer – ACE (Drama), CCA, BAFTA

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers – ACE (Comedy/Musical)

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

Pick: Oppenheimer

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Oppenheimer has won every major precursor here and is this year’s Best Picture winner, it’s taking this. The level of innovation Hoyte van Hoytema and his team spearheaded for this film is unparalleled and makes Oppenheimer a very deserving winner here.

Nominees:

Oppenheimer – BAFTA, CCA, ASC

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

El Conde

Pick: Oppenheimer

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Like with Production Design, this is a battle between Poor Things and Barbie. With the costuming mimicking existing Barbie doll outfits, Barbie’s costuming will likely be seen as more of an intrinsic part of the film than its production design, though that might be up for debate. Either way, I’m going to cover my bases and give Poor Things production design and Barbie costume design since those are the categories where each film has done the best in terms of precursor wins.

Nominees: 

Barbie – CCA, CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

Poor Things – BAFTA, CDG (Period)

Oppenheimer

Napoleon

Killers of the Flower Moon

Pick: Barbie

BEST SOUND

While we didn’t see this last year, Sound and Editing have gone hand in hand in the last few years. Oppenheimer is locked for both. While The Zone of Interest won Sound at the BAFTAs, that would be too inspired of a pick for the Oscars so expect Oppenheimer to take this.

Nominees:

Oppenheimer– MPSE (2x), CAS

The Zone of Interest – BAFTA

Maestro – MPSE

The Creator

Mission Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Pick: Oppenheimer

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year, the two awards bodies split, with the Globes awarding Barbie’s “What Was I Made For?” and the CCA awarding Barbie’s “I’m Just Ken”. What Was I Made For? is a Grammy winner and has more precursor success. Something that’s seen as mostly a comedy track more than anything else like I’m Just Ken usually won’t win with the Academy, especially when something as competitive as What Was I Made For is a fellow nominee. While I’m Just Ken is possible and would be an awesome winner, What Was I Made For? fits the mold of songs that win here to a much higher degree.

Nominees:

Barbie – “What Was I Made For?” – GG

Barbie – “I’m Just Ken” – CCA

Killers of the Flower Moon – “Wahzhazhe – A Song For My People”

American Symphony – “It Never Went Away”

Flamin’ Hot – “The Fire Inside”

Pick: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Oppenheimer’s score is an instant classic and as the inevitable Best Picture winner, this category is Ludwig Goransson’s for the taking.

Nominees:

Oppenheimer – BAFTA, CCA, GG

Killers of the Flower Moon

Poor Things

American Fiction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Pick: Oppenheimer

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

These categories are hell to predict. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. Each of the last six winners in this category have had an IMDb score of at least 6.9. This year’s frontrunner is Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and the question is will it suffer the same fate as last year’s high-profile inclusion in this category, the Alice Rohrwacher-directed Le Pupille that was also produced by Alfonso Cuaron. That film had a 6.7 IMDb score, and its slightness was one of the main reasons I didn’t predict it in this category last year. However, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has a score of 7.4 and has been pretty widely watched. Its biggest competition is the abortion rights drama Red, White, and Blue, which may be the most emotionally powerful of the films in this category. It has a strong chance but I think Wes Anderson and ‘Henry Sugar’ may just be too big and too well-liked, especially since this is the Academy’s chance to give Wes his first Oscar on his eighth nomination.

Nominees:

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Red, White, and Blue

The After

Knight of Fortune

Invincible

Pick: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 6.8 on IMDb. Of the three biggest contenders in this category, Letter to a Pig, War is Over, and Ninety-Five Senses, Ninety-Five Senses has the highest score with a 7.4 in comparison to Letter to a Pig’s 6.6, and War is Over’s 6.3. Ninety-Five Senses is exactly the kind of film the Academy likes to award in the shorts category, a life-affirming piece with a big emotional gut punch. I can never be too confident about my prediction in one of these categories, but I feel really good about this one.

Nominees:

Ninety-Five Senses

Letter to a Pig

War is Over

Pachyderme

Our Uniform

Pick: Ninety-Five Senses

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 7.1 on IMDb. The frontrunner, The ABCs of Book Banning, has a powerful title but also only a 6.3 on IMDb, which to me says that it’s vulnerable for an upset. The Last Repair Shop and Nai Nai and Wai Po are the biggest dark horse contenders with a 7.3 and 7.1 IMDb score each. The Last Repair Shop has a great narrative, the day before Oscar voting started, the Los Angeles School District invested $15 million dollars into the titular L.A.-based repair shop. This was announced at Hollywood High School, which is just blocks away from the home of the Oscar ceremony, the Dolby Theatre. While there’s a chance the issue-driven films ‘Repair Shop’ and ‘Book Banning’, may split votes leading to a ‘Nai Nai’ win, I think The Last Repair Shop should be able to edge everything else out and take this.

Nominees:

The Last Repair Shop

Nai Nai and Wai Po

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Barber of Little Rock

The Island in Between

Pick: The Last Repair Shop