05 Mar Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
These categories are hell to predict. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. Each of the last six winners in this category have had an IMDb score of at least 6.9. This year’s frontrunner is Wes Anderson’s The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, and the question is will it suffer the same fate as last year’s high-profile inclusion in this category, the Alice Rohrwacher-directed Le Pupille that was also produced by Alfonso Cuaron. That film had a 6.7 IMDb score, and its slightness was one of the main reasons I didn’t predict it in this category last year. However, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar has a score of 7.4 and has been pretty widely watched. Its biggest competition is the abortion rights drama Red, White, and Blue, which may be the most emotionally powerful of the films in this category. It has a strong chance but I think Wes Anderson and ‘Henry Sugar’ may just be too big and too well-liked, especially since this is the Academy’s chance to give Wes his first Oscar on his eighth nomination.
Nominees:
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Red, White, and Blue
The After
Knight of Fortune
Invincible
Pick: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 6.8 on IMDb. Of the three biggest contenders in this category, Letter to a Pig, War is Over, and Ninety-Five Senses, Ninety-Five Senses has the highest score with a 7.4 in comparison to Letter to a Pig’s 6.6, and War is Over’s 6.3. Ninety-Five Senses is exactly the kind of film the Academy likes to award in the shorts category, a life-affirming piece with a big emotional gut punch. I can never be too confident about my prediction in one of these categories, but I feel really good about this one.
Nominees:
Ninety-Five Senses
Letter to a Pig
War is Over
Pachyderme
Our Uniform
Pick: Ninety-Five Senses
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
In the last six years of this category, every winner has had at least a 7.1 on IMDb. The frontrunner, The ABCs of Book Banning, has a powerful title but also only a 6.3 on IMDb, which to me says that it’s vulnerable for an upset. The Last Repair Shop and Nai Nai and Wai Po are the biggest dark horse contenders with a 7.3 and 7.1 IMDb score each. The Last Repair Shop has a great narrative, the day before Oscar voting started, the Los Angeles School District invested $15 million dollars into the titular L.A.-based repair shop. This was announced at Hollywood High School, which is just blocks away from the home of the Oscar ceremony, the Dolby Theatre. While there’s a chance the issue-driven films ‘Repair Shop’ and ‘Book Banning’, may split votes leading to a ‘Nai Nai’ win, I think The Last Repair Shop should be able to edge everything else out and take this.
Nominees:
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai and Wai Po
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
The Island in Between
Pick: The Last Repair Shop