Tag: awards insights

  • Post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards Nominations Analysis and Predictions

    Post Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards Nominations Analysis and Predictions

    BEST PICTURE

    After the Golden Globes released their nods on Monday, these seven films are, in my eyes, all locked for Best Picture nominations. 

    Anora (NEON) – CCA, AFI, GG

    The Brutalist (A24) – CCA, AFI, GG

    Conclave (Focus) – CCA, AFI, GG

    Emilia Perez (Netflix) – CCA, AFI, GG

    Wicked (Universal) – CCA, AFI, GG

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.) – CCA, AFI, GG

    The Substance (MUBI) – CCA, GG

    The last three slots are going to be between A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain. This could change, but right now A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys seem to be getting the most traction. I think A Complete Unknown with its 73 Metascore, 7.9 IMDb score, and standout (and possibly Oscar-winning) performance from Timothee Chalamet should be confidently nominated here and fit the trend of music biopic love in Best Picture. With that in mind, the last two slots are for Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Real Pain to fill. Sing Sing missed a Globes Picture nomination, and A Real Pain was left out by Critics Choice. In the end, none of these matter and what really matters is which of these films have strong enough passion behind it? I think Nickel Boys has palpable passion behind it. It has an 89 Metascore, has won multiple film of the year awards and seems to have passion right now. As a result, I think it should be able to secure a nomination. I think Sing Sing has momentum as well and is the kind of crowdpleaser that we often see nominated here. The thing is, I’m not sure if there is passion for A Real Pain outside of Kieran Culkin’s likely Oscar-winning turn. As a result, I am going with Sing Sing.

    A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) – CCA, AFI, GG

    Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM) – CCA, AFI, GG

    Sing Sing (A24) – CCA, AFI

    Could Jump In:

    A Real Pain (Searchlight) – AFI, GG

    Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Conclave, and The Substance all received the Picture, Director, Screenplay trifecta from the Golden Globes meaning that only one of these five films is winning Best Picture. In my eyes, that film is either Anora or The Brutalist, the former with five nods from the Globes and the latter with seven. The biggest surprise for me was the HFPA going all out for Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. The Substance received five nominations, solidifying the body horror film’s place as a very likely Best Picture nominee. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up a top-6 Picture contender (if it already isn’t)

     

    To me this is between Corbet and Baker and I think it will be a close contest until the end. While I think the most likely scenario is Corbet getting Director, and Baker’s Anora taking Picture and Screenplay, anything can happen in the next three months until Oscar night. With Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance being definitively an auteur work and with The Substance profile rise in the last month, she also is locked here to me. The rest of the two slots are between Jacques Audiard, Edward Berger, Denis Villeneuve, and Ramell Ross. With the rise of Wicked, The Substance, and The Brutalist it seems that Dune: Part Two is no longer a top 5 Best Picture contender and I think that means that Villeneuve misses here just like he did with the first one. Audiard is the kind of Ruben Ostlund-lite filmmaker that the European branch will go for in a big way. I’m pretty confident that Conclave is this year’s third place film and with that I see Edward Berger getting in, especially since I would be very surprised if he misses at any of the precursors. RaMell Ross will probably overtake him if Nickel Boys becomes a top-six contender but right now I am not seeing that.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

    Sean Baker – Anora

    Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

    Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

    Edward Berger – Conclave

    Could Jump In: RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Denis Villeneuve – Dune

     

    To me, this is going to be between Adrien Brody and Timothee Chalamet. We will see what each win as the season goes in. Unlike two years ago where Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler were up for awards (with Fraser winning), Chalamet is a lot more well-known of a commodity in the industry and Brody has, unlike Fraser, already been nominated for an Oscar. I honestly think its a 60-40 right now between Brody and Chalamet. A Complete Unknown currently has a 7.9 on IMDb and if it stays 7.7 and above as the season goes on, I think Chalamet’s chances increase. Fiennes and Domingo are locked for nominations here and with that the fifth slot is between Daniel Craig and Jesse Eisenberg. Eisenberg’s nomination is contingent to me on the film being a major enough Picture contender. If it does rise up in its profile, Eisenberg will be getting nominated but if not, Daniel Craig should be able to make it in here and become Queer’s sole nomination.

    BEST ACTOR

    Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

    Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

    Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

    Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

    Daniel Craig – Queer

    Could Jump In: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

     

    This category is incredibly tight in my eyes and once SAG releases their nominations in just over a week things will (hopefully) get much clearer. Mikey Madison currently looks like the favorite here. She’s won most of the critics’ awards and is the star of a top-two Best Picture contender. This is her breakout moment, and I don’t think anything else has a narrative even close to the one she does. It’s hard to say which actresses are locked here, outside of Madison and Karla Sofia Gascon. Many thought Jolie was locked for Maria but she has not won a singular critics’ award and was also snubbed by the BAFTAs completely by not appearing on their best actress longlist. I honestly see a world where her and Kidman miss, and Jean-Baptiste enters the top five. I think after Gascon, Erivo is locked as well, and then after that the next two slots are really between Demi Moore, Jean-Baptiste, Jolie, and Kidman. The difficult thing here is that, excluding Jolie, all of these actresses seem to be generating a lot of positive buzz right now for their work in their respective films. The Oscars of ten years ago would probably nominate Jolie and Kidman, but how much has the Academy changed? I think they’ve changed enough to where Moore will be nominated here, and I think they will nominate Kidman as well. Kidman’s work is the kind of image deconstruction (Hollywood star plays business woman who enters a BDSM relationship with her subordinate) that I think the Academy will go for. But, like Paul Mescal got in for Aftersun a couple years back, the critics could very likely push Jean-Baptise to a nomination here.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Mikey Madison – Anora – CCA

    Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez – CCA

    Cynthia Erivo – Wicked – CCA

    Demi Moore – The Substance – CCA

    Nicole Kidman – Babygirl

    Could Jump In: Marianne Jean Baptiste – Hard Truths – CCA, Angelina Jolie – Maria – CCA, Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

     

    Even as his film looks less and less like it will be nominated in Picture, Culkin seems to be holding on to his frontrunner position in this category. Culkin and Guy Pearce seem locked to me, and it seems like the fivesome is going to be Culkin, Pearce, Denzel Washington, Yura Borisov, and Clarence Maclin. However, do not be surprised if Edward Norton sneaks in by unseating one of Washington, Borisov, or Maclin. I still think it is more likely that the five I listed is the eventual five.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain – CCA

    Guy Pearce – The Brutalist – CCA

    Denzel Washington – Gladiator II – CCA

    Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing – CCA

    Yura Borisov – Anora – CCA

    Could Jump In: Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown – CCA, Stanley Tucci – Conclave

     

    I think Saldana, Grande, Jones, and Rosselini are locked here, but this category’s question is the last spot which is between three actresses, Danielle Deadwyler, Margaret Qualley, and Aunjanue Ellis. Having watched The Substance, I think Qualley’s performance in the film is something that appeals more to critics than to Academy voters. And as a result, I think this is between Deadwyler and Ellis. They both have critics’ awards wins (Deadwyler has 3 while Ellis has 1), but I think the more important factor will be the fact that Ellis is in a Best Picture nominee while Deadwyler has not.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez – CCA

    Ariana Grande – Wicked – CCA

    Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

    Isabella Rosselini – Conclave – CCA

    Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys – CCA

    Could Jump In: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson – CCA, Margaret Qualley – The Substance – CCA, Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez

     

    The first four slots are locked here, which leaves four films to vie for the last slot. Hard Truths, September 5, All We Imagine as Light, and Challengers are these films and I could see any of them making it in here come nominations morning. i wouldn’t be surprised if Hard Truths or All We Imagine as Light ride in here on critic’ pushes. Hard Truths could ride the wave that its star Marianne Jean-Baptiste has been on for her work in the film and All We Imagine as Light could find itself the subject of a push from Academy members that want to reward the film but have nowhere else to nominate it especially since it wasn’t submitted by India for Best International Feature.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora – CCA

    The Brutalist – CCA

    The Substance – CCA

    A Real Pain – CCA

    Hard Truths

    Could Jump In: All We Imagine as Light, Challengers – CCA, September 5 – CCA

     

    I think Conclave is comfortably the 3rd place contender of this year’s Best Picture race and as a result, should be able to easily take a win in this category. Sing Sing and Nickel Boys should both be nominated here but the last two slots seem very up in the air to me. This category oftentimes rewards work from auteur writer-directors that replaces even Picture nominees that are often musicals or blockbuster films. I think The Room Next Door could be that film but the question is what movie is this replacing, Dune: Part Two or Emilia Perez. The Academy is decidedly not a fan of musicals in the screenplay category (West Side Story missed a few years ago and the last musical to be nominated for Screenplay was top-2 Best Picture contender La La Land) and Dune: Part Two is adapted from one of the most acclaimed sci-fi books of all time, so I think Emilia Perez is more likely to miss.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Conclave

    Sing Sing

    Nickel Boys

    Dune: Part Two

    The Room Next Door

    Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, Wicked, I’m Still Here, The Piano Lesson

     

    Nothing else is entering the fold here

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    The Wild Robot

    Inside Out 2

    Memoir of a Snail

    Flow

    Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    The Brutalist

    Wicked

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Conclave

    Could Jump In: Nosferatu, Blitz

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Brutalist – CCA

    Dune: Part Two – CCA

    Nosferatu – CCA

    Conclave – CCA

    Nickel Boys – CCA

    Could Jump In: Wicked – CCA, Maria, Emilia Perez

     

    All five of Wicked, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, and Maria received nods from both the Costume Designers Guild and the Critics’ Choice Awards in the past week. That doesn’t necessarily mean any of these films are guaranteed for nominations here, but since all of them fit the mold of past nominees in this category, I think they should feel pretty confident. Conclave also received nominations from both groups but as a contemporary film it doesn’t fit the taste of a branch that prefers its period, sci-fi, and fantasy costumes.

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Wicked

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Nosferatu

    Maria

    Could Jump In: The Brutalist, Conclave

     

    BEST EDITING

    Dune: Part Two – CCA, ACE

    Anora – CCA, ACE

    The Brutalist – CCA

    Conclave – CCA, ACE

    Emilia Perez – ACE

    Could Jump In: Wicked – ACE, Challengers – CCA, ACE, The Substance – ACE, September 5 – CCA

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Substance

    Wicked

    Dune: Part Two

    Nosferatu

    A Different Man

    Could Jump In: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Wicked

    Gladiator II

    A Complete Unknown

    Emilia Perez

    Could Jump In: Blitz, Alien: Romulus,

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Wicked

    Gladiator II

    Mufasa: The Lion King

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist

    Conclave

    Emilia Perez

    Challengers

    The Room Next Door

    Could Jump In: The Wild Robot

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Emilia Perez

    The Wild Robot

    Emilia Perez

    The Six Triple Eight

    Sing Sing

    Could Jump In: Will and Harper, Challengers,

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Emilia Perez

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    I’m Still Here

    Kneecap

    Dahomey

    Could Jump In: The Girl with the Needle, Flow

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Sugarcane

    Daughters

    No Other Land

    Dahomey

    Black Box Diaries

    Could Jump In: Porcelain War, Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

  • AFI Establishes the Top Contenders of This Season

    AFI Establishes the Top Contenders of This Season

    The American Film Institute released their list of the top 10 films and TV shows of the year. As always, AFI is the first major predictor of what the Best Picture slate is going to look like. Here are their picks:

    AFI MOTION PICTURES OF THE YEAR

    “Anora”

    “The Brutalist”

    “A Complete Unknown”

    “Conclave”

    “Dune: Part Two”

    “Emilia Perez”

    “Nickel Boys”

    “A Real Pain”

    “Sing Sing”

    “Wicked”

    AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR

    “Abbott Elementary”

    “The Bear”

    “Hacks”

    “A Man on the Inside”

    “Mr. and Mrs. Smith”

    “Nobody Wants This”

    “The Penguin”

    “Shogun”

    “Shrinking”

    “True Detective: Night Country”

    AFI SPECIAL AWARD

    “Baby Reindeer”

    Source: The Wrap

     

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2024 – 8 of the 10 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest
    • 2023 – 8 of 10 (Missed: Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front)
    • 2022 – 9 of 10 (Missed: Drive My Car)
    • 2021 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2022, 2020 and 2019, The Banshees of Inisherin, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • Anatomy of a Fall – Nominated at BAFTA and Golden Globes
    • The Zone of Interest – Nominated at the Golden Globes
    • All Quiet on The Western Front – Nominated at BAFTA (won as well)
    • Triangle of Sadness – Nominated at the Golden Globes
    • Drive My Car – none (won LAFCA, NYFCC, NSFC trifecta though)
    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    It seems likely that around 1 to 3 of the 10 films chosen by AFI will miss, and if three films do miss my picks for what those will be are (in order from most to least likely to miss): Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and A Complete Unknown.

  • Late November Oscar Predictions 2025

    Late November Oscar Predictions 2025

    As we head into the heart of awards season, it’s time to take a deep dive into the Oscar race for 2025. This year’s lineup features a fascinating mix of indie darlings, epic sagas, and mainstream favorites that have captured the attention of audiences and critics alike. While a few films seem to be pulling ahead in the race for Best Picture, the landscape is still evolving, with plenty of surprises potentially in store. In this article, I break down the major players across all key categories. From the frontrunners in Best Picture like Anora and The Brutalist, both of which reflect the current zeitgeist of accessibility paired with social consciousness, to the promising contenders in acting and technical categories, I provide a detailed look at how this year’s contenders are shaping up. I’ve also sorted the potential nominees into tiers to help better understand who might have the momentum to go all the way to Oscar night glory.

     

    BEST PICTURE

    TIER 1

    Anora (NEON)

    The Brutalist (A24)

    These are the top two films this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see these films battle it out as the season rages on. Both films received nods from the Gothams, Anora in Feature, Director, Lead Performance (Mikey Madison), and Supporting Performance (Yura Borisov), and The Brutalist in Lead Performance (Adrien Brody) and Supporting Performance (Guy Pearce). Both films also currently boast incredible IMDb and Metacritic scores (Anora is at a 8.2 and 91 and The Brutalist is at a 8.1 and 88, respectively), illustrating favor from audiences and critics. Previously, I have talked about how every Best Picture winner since Spotlight in 2016 has had the combination of accessibility and social consciousness. Both of these films fit that trend and I think this year’s Best Picture winner can only be either of these films. Anora is an allegory about class and exploitation, while The Brutalist is an epic about the immigrant experience and capitalism. Expect both of them to be multi-nominated films.

    TIER 2

    Conclave (Focus)

    Unlike previous years, there is a very large gulf between the top two Picture players and the rest of the pack. To me, Anora and The Brutalist are the only films that have a chance of winning and everything else will rack up nominations but will not be able to compete with those twin towers. Conclave’s best chance for an Oscar win are in Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. In Actor, I think Ralph Fiennes overdue narrative will only carry him so far and The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody will ultimately prevail. Adapted Screenplay is where the film is the clear frontrunner though I think something crowdpleasing like Sing Sing can upset especially later on in the season.

    Emilia Perez (Netflix)

    Along with Anora, Emilia Perez was one of the runner-ups for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival this year, and it’s been racking up raves throughout the season. Expect nods for its lead Karla Sofia Gascon who if nominated, will become the first trans actress to be nominated for Best Lead Actress at the Oscars. Additionally, expect success below-the-line as well and a possible win campaign for Zoe Saldana in Best Supporting Actress. One thing that gives me slight pause is that Emilia Perez’s IMDb score is currently only at 7.0. 

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    This is going to be the undeniable biggest below-the-line player of the year. The first film won six Oscars and this sequel had an even larger impact on pop culture. Its an undeniable top five player that should be able to earn a Best Director nod for Villeneuve even though he missed in that category for the first film. Expect to be a major contender in all the categories that it won last year, which were Sound, Visual Effects, Production Design, Score, Editing, and Cinematography. However, this year’s competition is much more stacked than that year so I doubt ‘Part Two’ will win as many as ‘Part One’

    Sing Sing (A24)

    A crowdpleaser like Best Picture winner CODA was three years ago, Sing Sing is the kind of film that can make a strong late season push if campaigned well. Its a film that can generate a lot of rousing widespread support with its messages of human solidarity, prisoner rehabilitation, and perseverance. Its the kind of indie humanist film that I could see being a surprise contender in Adapted Screenplay at the least. 

    TIER 3

    Wicked (Universal)

    After its box office success, rave reviews from both critics and audience, and plaudits from leading industry players, Wicked is going to be the second blockbuster nominee this year after Dune Part Two. Wicked has overshadowed its box office competition Gladiator II in essentially category, including both critical and commercial success. I think there is very little chance Gladiator II receives a Best Picture nomination after being overshadowed in nearly every way. Expect nominations for the film in both Actress and Supporting Actress (for both Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande respectively) and both Costume Design and Production Design. 

    A Real Pain (Searchlight)

    This year’s ‘Sundance-breakout-to-Picture-nominee film, “A Real Pain”has definitely benefited from one of the best campaigning distributors in the game scooping it up. Searchlight will likely bring both this film and A Complete Unknown to Best Picture nominations. With a possible Oscar-winning performance from Kieran Culkin in Supporting Actor, A Real Pain will also earn a nod in Original Screenplay and possibly in Actor if Jesse Eisenberg is able to outpace Queer’s Daniel Craig as the season surges on.

    A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)

    With recent Picture nominees like Elvis or Bohemian Rhapsody, the Academy clearly loves its music biopics. However, A Complete Unknown’s path to actually winning an Oscar seems a lot more unclear. It’s best chance is probably in Best Actor where Timothee Chalamet is not currently a front runner but can be if The Brutalist or Conclave don’t end up being as big of players as I think they will be. Austin Butler also was not considered a top two contender two years ago around this time in the season but that quickly changed once the precursor awards heated up. The same thing may happen with Chalamet.

    The Substance (A24)

    In the last five years, there has been at least one film directed by a woman nominated in Best Picture. “The Substance”, with its European Film Award nominations and Cannes Best Screenplay win has shown itself able to rise above its “body horror movie” status: something the Academy has unfortunately looked down upon in the past. This movie is also kind of batshit crazy, so it WILL be alienating audience members

    Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM)

    This reminds me of “If Beale Street Could Talk”, which may or not have been nominated if it came out in a year where there could be ten nominees in Best Picture instead of eight. I think it has a high chance, but there is already a film that focuses on systemic racism in America in the Best Picture race and I think that Sing Sing’s greater relative accessibility could be a negative factor for Nickel Boys’ chances in this category.

    Gladiator II

    Gladiator II is a perfect case of “doing good, but not good enough”. The film’s critical acclaim was good but not great. Its box office was good but not as substantial as its competitor Wicked, and its word of mouth appeal is also overshadowed by the musical. While Denzel Washington will surely be nominated and the film will also receive nods in various technical categories, I doubt this will go home with any statues come Oscar night.

    TIER 4

    September 5 

    For a film that is supposedly “apolitical”, ignoring the context of the Palestinians that held nine Israeli athletes hostage and killed two others at the 1972 Munich Olympics, seems deeply political. However, this seems like the kind of film that the Academy might eat up, which pisses me off but whatever. Who expects the Academy to be in support of collective liberation anyways. 

    Blitz (Apple TV+)

    Every year there’s a film like Blitz. A film with an acclaimed director, high profile cast, and an Oscar-baity premise that flounders by getting good but not great notices and ends up being shut out or close to shut out come nominations morning. Blitz is looking like this year’s iteration of that trend. While Saoirse Ronan might receive a nod, and so may the films Production and Costume Design, I don’t see this film getting more than three nods and it will definitely not be winning them.

    TIER 5

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)

    This is a curio for me only because I feel like I won’t really be able to gauge how big this movie really is until the European Film Awards reveal their picks on December 7th. Once that day comes, this will be much easier to see but for now, keep a watch on this film and its director.

    The Room Next Door (Sony Classics)

    The winner of the Golden Lion at Venice, the first English feature from Spanish legend Pedro Almodovar, and featuring two fantastic performances from beloved actresses Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, “The Room Next Door” can’t be completely denied as a Best Picture nominee contender. But even with all of this, its reviews are less than stellar and the passion for the film seems close-to-nonexistent

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    To me this feels like a Picture and Screenplay split year. I think right now, Anora will take Picture and Original Screenplay while The Brutalist will take Director as it plays more like an ambitious directorial achievement than Anora does. Corbet and Baker are no-brainers here but which filmmakers will take the rest of the slots? I have now seen Emilia Perez and while I don’t think Audiard deserves a nomination, its definitely a unique vision of a film and those are the types of films the directors branch likes to nominate. Villeneuve missing for Dune: Part One gives me pause about his inclusion but I think he will be since this film is bigger than the former. At this point, the two other filmmakers that I think are most likely to take that fifth spot are Mohammed Rasoulof and Coralie Fargeat. I think one of them definitely will be nominated and right now I am leaning towards Fargeat because I think The Substance will be nominated in Best Picture but if The Seed of the Sacred Fig has an amazing night at the European Film Awards, my thoughts here will change…   

    Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

    Sean Baker – Anora

    Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

    TIER 2

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

    Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

    Mohammed Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    TIER 3

    Edward Berger – Conclave

    RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys

    Pedro Almodovar – The Room Next Door

     

    BEST ACTOR

    While it looks like it’s between Brody and Fiennes right now, why do I think that this is going to be between Brody and Chalamet soon? In my eyes, all three of those actors are locked with the addition of Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. The question is who will take that last slot? Will it be Jesse Eisenberg riding on a wave of support for future Best Picture nominee A Real Pain or will it be Daniel Craig for his critically-raved performance in Queer? I think Craig will take this if he is immensely successful at the critics awards but without that I think Eisenberg will take this.

    Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

    Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

    Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

    Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

    Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

    Could Jump In: Daniel Craig – Queer, Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    This is kind of a strange year in Best Actress. The two biggest Best Picture contenders with female leads are Anora and Emilia Perez, but both their leads are mainstream newcomers that don’t feel like obvious winners here. Mikey Madison’s work in Anora will undoubtedly rack up critics’ prizes and her performance is definitely win-worthy, but I’m not sure how much of the Academy will award someone who they haven’t heard about before. It’s not impossible, just unlikely. Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas is the kind of biopic role that would’ve won here in the 2000s but I doubt she will win now, especially since Jolie is already an Oscar winner. To me, the last two slots are between Demi Moore, Cynthia Erivo, and Nicole Kidman. I want to see whether the critics gravitate more towards Moore or Kidman’s performance, I am leaning more towards Erivo and Moore right now because I have both their films in Picture.

    Mikey Madison – Anora

    Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

    Angelina Jolie – Maria

    Demi Moore – The Substance

    Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Babygirl, Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths, Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Culkin, Pearce, and Washington are all pretty much shoo-ins here. I think it’s pretty likely that Clarence Maclin gets in here as well but the last slot is up in the air between Yura Borisov and Stanley Tucci. I think Tucci might have a better chance but also the love for Anora might bring Borisov into the pack.

    Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

    Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

    Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

    TIER 2

    Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

    Yura Borisov – Anora

    Stanley Tucci – Conclave

    Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saldana, Grande, and Jones are all pretty much guaranteed nods here. After watching Emilia Perez, I am unsure whether Zoe Saldana’s performance is enough to garner a win here but she definitely is more likely than Grande (I have not yet seen Jones’ performance).

    Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

    Ariana Grande – Wicked

    Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

    TIER 2

    Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson

    Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

    Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

    Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez

    Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora

    The Brutalist

    A Real Pain

    The Substance

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    Could Jump In: Hard Truths, September 5, Saturday Night, Blitz, Challengers

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Conclave

    Nickel Boys

    Sing Sing

    Emilia Perez

    The Room Next Door

    Could Jump In: Dune: Part Two, The Wild Robot

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    The Wild Robot

    Inside Out 2

    Memoir of a Snail

    Flow

    Wallace and Gromit 2: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Could Jump In: Moana 2

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    The Brutalist

    Wicked

    Gladiator II

    Blitz

    Could Jump In: Nosferatu, Conclave, Emilia Perez

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nickel Boys will not be getting nominated for Best Cinematography if it isn’t nominated for Best Picture. Dune: Part Two and The Brutalist are definitely guaranteed here, and Emilia Perez seems to be a popular choice here (even if I personally think its cinematography is kind of ugly at times).

    Dune: Part Two

    The Brutalist

    Emilia Perez

    Nosferatu

    Maria

    Could Jump In: Nickel Boys, Conclave, Wicked

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    If Wicked is getting nominated for Best Picture, I think I am pretty confident about it winning here. This one is definitely competitive, the first seven here all would be able to be nominated here in other years. I could very easily see Nosferatu replacing something like Blitz or Maria if it’s as big of a contender as it could be. Watch out for a Maria miss here just like House of Gucci did a few years ago.

    Wicked

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Nosferatu

    Blitz

    Could Jump In: Maria, A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    With its long takes and over three hour runtime I could see The Brutalist missing here. However, I doubt it will. Additionally, Emilia Perez is exactly the kind of film that does well here with its flashy, stylized editing (even if I think the editing is shit).

    Anora

    Emilia Perez

    Conclave

    Dune: Part Two

    The Brutalist

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Substance

    Dune: Part Two

    Wicked

    Nosferatu

    A Different Man

    Could Jump In: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Wicked

    Emilia Perez

    A Complete Unknown

    Could Jump In: Blitz, Twisters

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator II

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Wicked

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Could Jump In: Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Brutalist

    Conclave

    Emilia Perez

    Saturday Night

    The Room Next Door

    Could Jump In: Challengers, The Wild Robot

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    Emilia Perez

    The Wild Robot

    Moana 2

    Sing Sing

    The Six Triple Eight

    Could Jump In: Will and Harper, Piece by Piece, Better Man

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Sugarcane

    No Other Land

    Dahomey

    Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

    Daughters

    Could Jump In: Will & Harper, Black Box Diaries

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Emilia Perez

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    Kneecap

    I’m Still Here

    Dahomey

    Could Jump In: The Girl with the Needle

  • Late July Oscar Predictions 2025

    Late July Oscar Predictions 2025

    With trailer drops and festival announcements, the last few weeks have been rife with new information to help us predict who will see themselves carrying a golden statue in March.

    Trailers for Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown, and Joker: Folie a Deux released, elevating the profile of all of those films. Anora was also announced as a selection at the Toronto Film Festival this year, following the path of past NEON Palme D’Or winners Parasite and Anatomy of a Fall. Both those films won Oscars and I already think Anora is the frontrunner in Original Screenplay this year. I think Anora is inevitably going to be a top three contender. It’s a Palme D’Or winner, a film from one of the best up-and-coming American filmmakers of the last ten years who has to yet to break out with the Academy, and contains commentary on gender and class. It’s a potential winner and especially since there usually is a film that can be called a comedy in the top-four of the Oscar Best Picture slate, Anora’s spot in the year’s top contenders seems pretty secure to me.

    Conclave was also announced as a TIFF selection this year and with its trailer containing many references to the current American political situation, this film seems like it could have that combination of critical acclaim and “importance” that characterizes Best Picture winners since Spotlight. It’s also being released on November 8th, three days after election day in the United States, and it looks like Focus Features is already centering the film’s political allegory in its campaign for the film.

    Trailers for Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown, and Joker: Folie a Deux also dropped. Gladiator II’s trailer was good, but not good enough to diminish my suspicions about its quality. Ridley Scott has been in a slump as of late and the film’s writer David Scarpa has been behind two of Scott’s recent missteps Napoleon and All the Money in the World. However, the trailer made a good case for Denzel Washington. If the movie is a Best Picture nominee contender, I would be surprised if Washington isn’t a top three Supporting Actor contender. A Complete Unknown’s teaser trailer featured a Timothee Chalamet who has done a pretty good job of matching Bob Dylan’s singing voice. The film is definitely Searchlight’s biggest player and Searchlight almost always gets at least one of its films into Best Picture. A Complete Unknown could very likely follow the path of Bohemian Rhapsody and Elvis, two other music biopics with ok-not-great reviews that catapulted its lead to being a top-two Best Actor contender. Like with Gladiator 2, I am similarly skeptical about Joker 2. Maybe I am just a naysayer, but I don’t know if Todd Phillips can strike the same Oscar lightning twice. Warner Bros. submitting the film for Venice in competition, following the example of the first film which won the Golden Lion there back in 2019, is a move that may indicate their confidence in the film’s quality.

    Nickel Boys and Blitz were announced as the opening and closing films of the New York Film Festival, respectively and we could see a repeat of 2018 and 2019’s festival where two of the three films that made the Opening, Centerpiece, and Closing films of the festival were nominated for Best Picture. Nickel Boys is exactly the kind of film that if critically-acclaimed, can be a top six Best Picture contender. I think its ceiling would be either a Supporting Actress win for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor or an Adapted Screenplay win. However, if it has a Metascore lower than 75, I could see it missing in the wake of one of Joker: Folie a Deux, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, Hard Truths, The Seed of the Sacred Fig making it in. Blitz is Steve McQueen’s first theatrically-released feature film since his Best Picture winning 12 Years a Slave back in 2013. It’s starring Saoirse Ronan, Harris Dickinson, Stephen Graham and follows a group of Londoners during World War II. It’s the kind of film that if well-received can be a top-five Picture contender and rack up nods both above and below the line, but I don’t see it winning Picture or more than a couple statues.

    Venice released its slate for this year as well and of the films announced, Luca Guadagnino’s Queer, Todd Phillips’ Joker: Folie a Deux, and Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door are the most likely to be Best Picture nominees. I expect there to be one or two films from this year’s Venice slate that make it into Best Picture and while Queer seems the most likely to me, if The Room Next Door is one of Almodovar’s top four films, I could see it making Picture.

     

    BEST PICTURE

    Anora (NEON)

    Conclave (Focus)

    Blitz (Apple TV+)

    Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    Emilia Perez (Netflix)

    A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)

    Sing Sing (A24)

    Gladiator II (Paramount)

    Queer (N/A)

    Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM)

    Could Jump In: Joker: Folie a Deux (Warner Bros.), The Piano Lesson (Netflix), The Room Next Door (Sony Classics), Hard Truths (Bleecker Street), The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON), Nightbitch (Searchlight), A Real Pain (Searchlight), Didi (Focus), We Live in Time (A24), Challengers (AmazonMGM), Nosferatu (Focus), Here (TriStar), Wicked (Universal)

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Sean Baker – Anora

    Steve McQueen – Blitz

    Denis Villenueve – Dune: Part Two

    Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

    Luca Guadagnino – Queer

    Could Jump In: Edward Berger – Conclave, Pedro Almodovar – The Room Next Door, Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing, Mile Leigh – Hard Truths, Ridley Scott – Gladiator II, Marielle Heller – Nightbitch, RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

    Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

    Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

    Daniel Craig – Queer

    Paul Mescal – Gladiator II

    Could Jump In: John David Washington – The Piano Lesson, Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie a Deux, Sebastian Stan – A Different Man, Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Ethan Herisse – Nickel Boys, Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Angelina Jolie – Maria

    Mikey Madison – Anora

    Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

    Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

    Amy Adams – Nightbitch

    Could Jump In: Julianne Moore or Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door, Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths, Lady Gaga – Joker: Floie a Deux, Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters, Zendaya – Challengers, Florence Pugh – We Live in Time

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

    Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

    Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

    Stanley Tucci – Conclave

    Stephen Graham – Blitz

    Could Jump In: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain, Harris Dickinson – Blitz, John Lithgow – Conclave, Mark Eydelshteyn – Anora

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys

    Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

    Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson

    Isabella Rossellini – Conclave

    Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door

    Could Jump In: Joan Chen – Didi, Toni Colette – Juror #2, Lesley Manville – Queer, Carrie Coon or Elisabeth Olsen – His Three Daughters

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora

    Blitz

    The Room Next Door

    Hard Truths

    A Real Pain

    Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Challengers, Kinds of Kindness, Didi, Civil War

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Conclave

    Queer

    Sing Sing

    Nickel Boys

    The Piano Lesson

    Could Jump In: Nightbitch, Dune: Part Two, Joker: Folie a Deux, A Complete Unknown, Here

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Inside Out 2

    The Wild Robot

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Flow

    Could Jump In: Moana 2, Ultraman: Rising

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator 2

    Blitz

    Furiosa

    Nickel Boys

    Could Jump In: Joker 2. Maria, Conclave, Emilia Perez

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune: Part Two

    Furiosa

    Queer

    Gladiator 2

    Nosferatu

    Could Jump In: Maria, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Blitz

    Gladiator 2

    Furiosa

    Maria

    Could Jump In: Wicked, Nosferatu, Joker 2, Nickel Boys

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune: Part Two

    Blitz

    Anora

    Gladiator 2

    Emilia Perez

    Could Jump In: Conclave, Joker 2, The Fire Inside

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Dune: Part Two

    Furiosa

    Nosferatu

    Joker 2

    Wicked

    Could Jump In: Maria, Gladiator 2, Nickel Boys

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Furiosa

    Blitz

    Gladiator 2

    Joker 2

    Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    Furiosa

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Wicked

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator 2

    Queer

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    Conclave

    Could Jump In: Maria, Joker: Folie a Deux, Sing Sing, The Room Next Door, Challengers

  • Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    VENICE

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In seven of the past eight years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from this month, I have one of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. However, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door, Todd Phillips’s Joker: Folie a Deux, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Pablo Larrain’s Maria, and Justin Kurzel’s The Order are films to look out for. If any one of these films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.

    Here is the Venice slate for this year:

    In Competition

    The Room Next Door, dir. Pedro Almodóvar

    Campo di Battaglia (Battleground), dir. Gianni Amelio

    Leurs enfants après eux (And Their Children After Them), dir. Ludovic Boukherma, Zoran Boukherma

    The Brutalist, dir. Brady Corbet

    Jouer avec le feu (The Quiet Son), dir. Delphine Coulin, Muriel Coulin

    Vermiglio, dir. Maura Delpero

    Iddu (Sicilian Letters), dir. Fabio Grassadonia, Antonio Piazza

    Queer, dir. Luca Guadagnino

    Kjærlighet (Love), dir. Dag Johan Haugerud

    April, dir. Dea Kulumbegashvili

    The Order, dir. Justin Kurzel

    Maria, dir. Pablo Larraín

    Trois amies (Three Friends), dir. Emmanuel Mouret

    Kill the Jockey, dir. Luis Ortega

    Joker: Folie à Deux, dir. Todd Phillips

    Babygirl, dir. Halina Reijn

    Ainda estou aqui (I’m Still Here), dir. Walter Salles

    Diva Futura, dir. Giulia Louise Steigerwalt

    Harvest, dir. Athina Rachel Tsangari

    Qing chun gui (Youth – Homecoming), dir. Wang Bing

    Stranger Eyes, dir. Yeo Siew Hua

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, dir. Tim Burton

    L’orto americano (The American Backyard), dir. Pupi Avati

    Il tempo che ci vuole, dir. Francesca Comencini

    Phantosmia, dir. Lav Diaz

    Maldoror, dir. Fabrice du Welz

    Broken Rage, dir. Takeshi Kitano

    Baby Invasion, dir. Harmony Korine

    Cloud, dir. Kurosawa Kiyoshi

    Finalement (Finally), dir. Claude Lelouch

    Wolfs, dir. Jon Watts

    Se posso permettermi Capitolo II, dir. Marco Bellocchio

    Allégorie citadine (An Urban Allegory), dir. Alice Rohrwacher, JR

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 8 years:

    2023 – In Competition: Poor Things (Golden Lion winner), Maestro

    2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Queer, Joker: Folie a Deux, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Maria, The Order, and Wolfs. Like with Joker back in 2019, Warner Bros. has submitted ‘Folie a Deux’ in competition at the festival, possibly indicating their confidence in its quality. There’s never been a year with three blockbuster sequels in the Best Picture nominee slate but if Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 play well, we could see them join Dune 2 as Best Picture nominees.

    This is the rest of the Venice slate:

     

    Out of Competition (Non-Fiction)

    Apocalipse nos trópicos (Apocalypse in the Tropics), dir. Petra Costa

    Bestiari, erbari, lapidari (Bestiaries, Herbaria, Lapidaries), dir. Massimo D’Anolfi, Martina Parenti

    Why War, dir. Amos Gitai

    2073, dir. Asif Kapadia

    One to One: John & Yoko, dir. Kevin Macdonald, Sam Rice-Edwards

    Separated, dir. Errol Morris

    Israel Palestina på svensk TV 1958-1989 (Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989), dir. Göran Hugo Olsson

    Russians at War, dir. Anastasia Trofimova

    TWST / Things We Said Today, dir. Andrei Ujică

    Riefenstahl, dir. Andres Veiel

    Pisni zemli, shcho povilno (Songs of Slow Burning Earth), dir. Olha Zhurba

    Out of Competition (Series)

    Disclaimer (Chapters 1 – 7), dir. Alfonso Cuarón

    Los años nuevos (The New Years) (Ep. 1 – 10), dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen del Amo, Sandra Romero, David Martín de los Santos

    Familier som vores (Families Like Ours) (Ep. 1 – 7), dir. Thomas Vinterberg

    M – Il figlio del secolo (M – Son of the Century) (Ep. 1 – 8), dir. Joe Wright

    Out of Competition (Special Screenings)

    Leopardi. The Poet of the Infinity (Part 1 & 2), dir. Sergio Rubini

    Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, dir. Peter Weir

    Beauty Is Not a Sin, dir. Nicolas Winding Refn

    Horizons Competition

    Nonostante, dir. Valerio Mastandrea

    Quiet Life, dir. Alexandros Avranas

    Mon inséparable (My Everything), dir. Anne-Sophie Bailly

    Aïcha, dir. Mehdi Barsaoui

     

    TORONTO

    In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF six times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Sean Baker’s Anora, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Edward Berger’s Conclave, Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson, Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light, Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch, John Crowley’s We Live in Time, and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside are some of the most high-profile films being shown. Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing which is undoubtedly in the running this year as a major Best Picture nominee contender, played at TIFF last year.

     

    Galas 2024

    *previously announced

    “Andrea Bocelli: Because I Believe,” Cosima Spender | UK
    World Premiere

    “Better Man,” Michael Gracey | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs,” Embeth Davidtz | South Africa
    Canadian Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Eden,” Ron Howard | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Elton John: Never Too Late,” R.J. Cutler, David Furnish | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Harbin,” Woo Min-ho | South Korea
    World Premiere

    “Meet the Barbarians,” Julie Delpy | France
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Nutcrackers,” David Gordon Green | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Oh, Canada,” Paul Schrader | USA
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band,” Thom Zimny | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Superboys of Malegaon,” Reema Kagti | India
    World Premiere

    *“The Deb,” Rebel Wilson | Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Friend,” Scott McGehee, David Siegel | USA
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Penguin Lessons,” Peter Cattaneo | Spain/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Return,” Uberto Pasolini | Italy/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Shrouds,” David Cronenberg | Canada/France
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Wild Robot,” Chris Sanders | USA
    World Premiere

    “Unstoppable,“ William Goldenberg | USA
    World Premiere

    “Will & Harper,” Josh Greenbaum | USA
    International Premiere

    Special Presentations 2024

    *Previously announced

    “40 Acres,” R.T. Thorne | Canada
    World Premiere

    “All of You,” William Bridges | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “All We Imagine as Light,” Payal Kapadia | France/India/Netherlands/Luxembourg
    Canadian Premiere

    “Anora,” Sean Baker | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Bird,” Andrea Arnold | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere

    “Bring Them Down,” Christopher Andrews | Ireland/Belgium
    World Premiere

    “Can I Get A Witness?” Ann Marie Fleming | Canada
    World Premiere

    “Carnival is Over,” Fernando Coimbra | Brazil/Portugal
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Caught by the Tides,” Jia Zhang-Ke | China
    North American Premiere

    “Conclave,” Edward Berger | USA/United Kingdom
    International Premiere

    “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard | France/USA/Mexico
    Canadian Premiere

    “Hard Truths,” Mike Leigh | United Kingdom/Spain
    World Premiere

    “Harvest,” Athina Rachel Tsangari | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Heretic,” Scott Beck, Bryan Woods | Canada
    World Premiere

    “I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles | Brazil/France
    North American Premiere

    “I, the Executioner,” Ryoo Seung-wan | South Korea
    North American Premiere

    *“K-Pops,” Anderson .Paak | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Love in the Big City,” E.oni | South Korea
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Millers in Marriage,” Edward Burns | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Misericordia,” Alain Guiraudie | Spain/Portugal/France
    Canadian Premiere

    *“Nightbitch,” Marielle Heller | USA
    World Premiere

    “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni | Zambia/United Kingdom/Ireland
    North American Premiere

    “Piece by Piece,” Morgan Neville | USA
    International Premiere

    “Quisling – The Final Days,” Erik Poppe | Norway
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Relay,” David Mackenzie | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rez Ball,” Sydney Freeland | USA
    World Premiere

    “Riff Raff,” Dito Montiel | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rumours,” Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson | Canada/Germany
    North American Premiere

    “Sharp Corner,” Jason Buxton | Canada/Ireland
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Shepherds,” Sophie Deraspe | Canada/France
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Sketch,” Seth Worley | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Assessment,” Fleur Fortuné | United Kingdom/Germany/USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Cut,” Sean Ellis | United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The End,” Joshua Oppenheimer | Denmark/UK
    Canadian Premiere

    “The Fire,” Inside Rachel Morrison | USA
    World Premiere

    “The Girl with the Needle,” Magnus von Horn | Denmark/Poland/Sweden
    North American Premiere

    “The Last Showgirl,” Gia Coppola | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Life of Chuck,” Mike Flanagan | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Order,” Justin Kurzel | Canada/USA
    North American Premiere

    “The Piano Lesson,” Malcolm Washington | USA
    International Premiere

    *“We Live in Time,” John Crowley | United Kingdom/France
    World Premiere

    “Went Up the Hill,” Samuel Van Grinsven | New Zealand/Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Without Blood,” Angelina Jolie | USA/Italy
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Young Werther,” José Avelino Gilles Corbett Lourenço | Canada
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 11 years:

    2023 – Special Presentations: American Fiction (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), The Zone of Interest

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, and The End

  • 2025 Best Picture Preview

    2025 Best Picture Preview

    Last year, the Cannes Film Festival brought with it Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, both of which became major Best Picture contenders and Oscar winners. This year’s Cannes is now finished and films like Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez and Sean Baker’s Anora have made a splash. Baker’s Anora won the Palme D’or and in my eyes it’s the type of film that will likely end up a top five Best Picture contender by the end of the year especially with a studio like Neon backing it. Netflix’s biggest contender this year is Emilia Perez, and with a long-acclaimed director overdue for Oscar recognition in Jacques Audiard and a Cannes-winning cast featuring Karla Sofia Gascon, Zoe Saldana, and Selena Gomez, this Spanish-language musical should be able to get in if campaigned well.

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga played well at Cannes, its opening weekend box office in the United States was lackluster. There are four sequels/prequels that are major contenders this year and Warner Bros. is distributing three of them: Furiosa, Dune: Part Two, and Joker: Folie a Deux. Paramount is producing the fourth, Gladiator 2. There have only ever been two sequels/prequels nominated for Best Picture in the same year. The last time that happened is when Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of the Water were nominated two years ago. This year, Dune: Part Two is a sure thing for a nod and with Furiosa’s box office flounders, Gladiator 2 seems like the best bet to me even though Ridley Scott hasn’t delivered a Best Picture nominee since The Martian in 2016.

    With the start of the Cannes Film Festival, the 2025 Oscar season begins almost 10 months before the actual ceremony in early March. This year, as always, looks to be an interesting one. Unlike last year, where I was able to predict just over half of the eventual Best Picture nominees in May, I expect the fall festivals to premiere some major contenders that aren’t currently on my radar.

     

    BEST PICTURE

    (Films are ordered in terms of likelihood of getting a nomination)

    Anora (NEON)

    With a Metascore in the high 80s, a socially conscious message that deals with class, and Palme D’Or pedigree, Anora seems like a possible Best Picture winner for the wonderful Sean Baker. Distributor NEON has played the Palme-to-Best Picture game before with Parasite and while Sean Baker’s newest may not have the nearly the hype that film had, it’s still early in the year and as of right now Anora should pat itself on the back for being probably the (tied) safest lock for a nomination among this year’s slate. Expect big campaigns for Baker in Director and Screenplay and for Mikey Madison’s wonderful work in the titular role in Best Actress. Like NEON did with Parasite, this is going to play the fall festivals as well and don’t be surprised if this gets a top three slot at Toronto.

     

    Dune Part Two (Warner Bros.)

    The other locked Best Picture nominee of this year’s slate, Dune: Part Two is this year’s critically-acclaimed blockbuster pick. Like its precursor which won six Oscars back in 2022, expect this film to be an absolute juggernaut below-the-line. Visual Effects, Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Editing are all possibilities but fellow desert-set blockbuster Furiosa may likely take one or two of those. If there’s any year where we could see a Denis Villeneuve Director Oscar, this would be the year.

     

    Blitz (Apple TV+)

    Steve McQueen and Saoirse Ronan in a WW2-set drama? Sounds like a match made in Academy heaven. The Oscar winning director and four-time nominated actress are joined on this film by Stephen Graham and Harris Dickinson, both wonderful performers in their own right who could see their respective first nominations this year. Since it’s a 1940s set war film expect possible nominations in Editing, Production Design, Costume Design and Sound as well. This is the type of film that I could see premiering at Telluride or Venice and getting a top three slot at Toronto if it plays there.

     

    Sing Sing (A24)

    After Colman Domingo’s first nomination last year, does he have what it takes to win? Many think his work in Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is deserving. Him and Queer’s Daniel Craig seem to be the strongest contenders in the Actor category this year, yet sight-unseen, I think the Academy will be drawn to Domingo’s feel-good resilience as opposed to Craig’s complex and possibly unlikeable protagonist. Expect love for the film in Picture and Screenplay as well.

     

    A Real Pain (Searchlight_

    Searchlight is one of the most consistently successful distributors in the game and this year the centerpiece of their campaign is Jesse Eisenberg’s Sundance smash A Real Pain. Eisenberg won the Sundance screenplay award for his work on the film’s script so expect love for the screenplay as well as for Kieran Culkin’s knockout performance in a supporting role. I could see a world where this gets no other nominations outside of Original Screenplay and Culkin but I don’t see Searchlight not getting a film into the nominee slate.

     

    Emilia Perez (Netflix)

    A Spanish musical with a trans protagonist might seem too cool for the Academy on paper, but with an all-star cast of Zoe Saldana, Selena Gomez, Edgar Ramirez, and newcomer Karla Sofia Gascon, and “A Prophet”’s Jacques Audiard in the director’s chair, this film has the pedigree to make a big run this year. It’s also by far Netflix’s biggest Oscar contender this year and they usually have the ability to slide in 1 or 2 of their films into the Best Picture slate each year. Expect possible nominations for Gascon, Saldana, and maybe even Gomez. Adapted Screenplay, Director, Sound, and Editing are possibilities as well. 

     

    Queer (N/A)

    With Challengers, Luca Guadganino is hot off his most critically-acclaimed film since his Oscar-winning 2017 effort Call Me By Your Name. With Queer, Guadagnino hopes to continue that streak and could possibly even best the acclaim Challengers received. The film is based on a book by Beat Generation writer William S. Borroughs and stars Daniel Craig in a role that could very well see him earn his first Oscar nod. Justin Kuritzkes, who wrote the screenplay on Guadagnino’s Challengers as well, could be a screenplay contender for both films. Expect this film to premiere at Venice and make a splash when it does.

     

    Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)

    Based on one of the most acclaimed novels of the last 10 years, Hale Country This Morning, This Evening filmmaker RaMell Ross will bring his realist humanist sensibilities to the Pulitzer prize-winning story of an abusive school and its students. Aunjanue Ellis, Daveed Diggs, Jimmie Fails, and Hamish Linklater form the supporting cast. Ellis seems poised for a Supporting Actress nod if she’s given a substantial enough role. Additionally, this seems like a no-brainer contender in Adapted Screenplay if it’s well-received, expect to see this at the fall festivals

     

    Conclave (Focus)

    On paper, a Robert Harris thriller doesn’t seem like a film tailor-made to get the Academy’s attention. I see this film most likely going the way of fellow Robert Harris adaptation The Ghost Writer (which was shut out at the Oscars) or fellow Peter Straughan screenplay Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (which received nominations in Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and Score). With Focus Features giving the Edward Berger-directed film a prime early November release date, I think this is more likely to go the way of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy than The Ghost Writer. ‘Soldier Spy’ was a top 12 Best Picture contender back in 2012 and I think there’s a pretty good chance Conclave will be as well. Ralph Fiennes should be an Actor contender like Oldman was in 2012 and don’t be surprised if Stanley Tucci or John Lithgow make it in as well. 

     

    Gladiator 2 (Paramount)

    This could be good. The cast is absolutely loaded, Denzel Washington, Pedro Pascal, Paul Mescal are joining a cast that features Connie Nielsen, Joseph Quinn, and Derek Jacobi from the original Best Picture winning Gladiator. However, Ridley Scott hasn’t made a Best Picture-nominated film since The Martian in 2016 and it seems like he tries every other year. The Last Duel, Napoleon, House of Gucci, and All The Money in the World all seemed like attempts for Oscar attention but every one of them came up short and didn’t earn Best Picture nods. Gladiator 2 seems like the kind of big event picture that could change that. The film’s ceiling to me is Top Gun: Maverick (funnily enough, the original Top Gun was directed by Ridley’s brother, the late great Tony Scott), a popular blockbuster decades in the making that appeals to both the Academy’s old guard and younger cohort. Even if the film isn’t that popular, expect it to get nods in Costume Design and Production Design at the very least. Acting nominations are also a possibility here, with Mescal, Washington, and Pascal all being possible contenders. 

     

    Could Jump In:

    Didi (Focus)

    The winner of the Audience Award at Sundance, Didi could follow in the footsteps of Minari and CODA and turn that Sundance win into a Best Picture nod. Focus is giving it a July 26 release date so either they don’t see it going past the Gothams and Spirits or they are playing the strategy Apple attempted with CODA back in 2022 when it won Best Picture as that film hit theaters August 13th. If the latter is the case and Focus is going to give Didi a proper campaign, expect nominations in Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actress for the legendary Joan Chen. 

     

    Hard Truths (Bleecker Street)

    Legendary English filmmaker Mike Leigh has been nominated for seven Oscars over two decades and yet has never won the coveted prize. His newest film reunites him with Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who starred in Leigh’s five-time Oscar nominated Secrets and Lies. If Hard Truths is amazing it can get nominated but amazing reviews are essential for this film’s nomination chances. If it gets great reviews, expect nominations in Picture, Actress for Jean-Baptiste, and Screenplay. Bleecker Street as the distributor gives me pause since they haven’t had a Picture nominee in years but if Hard Truths is amazingly received, the film will sell itself. Expect this film at Venice this year. 

     

    Joker 2 (Warner Bros.)

    Joker was the surprise Oscar smash of the 2020 season. After stunningly winning the Golden Lion at the 2019 Venice Film Festival, Joker went on to become a top 5 Picture contender, receiving 11 nominations and 2 wins. Will Joker 2 have the same kind of success? Star Joaquin Phoenix and director Todd Phillips are returning with Lady Gaga joining the film as Harley Quinn. The film is apparently a musical and with Emilia Perez seemingly more likely to get a Picture nod, I doubt two crime drama musicals will make the Best Picture slate. I also admittedly am not too confident lightning will strike twice with this franchise’s Oscar chances and am hesitant about predicting it for anything other than Makeup, Sound, and Costume Design.  

     

    Furiosa (Warner Bros.)

    The third of the Warner Bros. blockbusters that are follow-ups to films that were incredibly successful at the Oscars, Furiosa was initially one of my Best Picture predictions back in early May. However, after the film flopped at the box office, I think Warner Bros. will pivot all their intention to their other desert-based franchise film, Dune: Part Two. However, that doesn’t mean Furiosa will be shut out. Expect this film to be nominated in Sound, Visual Effects, Makeup and Hairstyling, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design, and maybe even Editing. 

     

    The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)

    Neon clearly knows how to campaign Cannes films. Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, and Anatomy of a Fall were all Palme D’Or winners that were guided on their path to Best Picture nominations by the indie distributor. However, the distributor has not managed to deliver two nominees in the same year and with Anora being a possible Best Picture winner, that means that The Seed of the Sacred Fig could very easily be lost in the shuffle. Iranian director Mohammad Rasoulof was arrested for criticizing the Iranian government for its crackdown on protestors. His film is a gripping crime thriller that tackles systemic gender discrimination in Iran and could receive a major campaign since there is absolutely no way Iran will be submitting it for International Feature. If the film receives as much attention as it should, I can see it getting a sole screenplay nod like fellow Iranian director Asghar Farhadi’s A Separation did in 2012.

     

    The Piano Lesson (Netflix)

    The last two Denzel Washington-produced August Wilson adaptations Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received four and five Oscar nods respectively and three Oscar wins between them. Will The Piano Lesson have the same success? It doesn’t look like Netflix thinks so. They’ve opted for a July release with the film, indicating to me that they don’t see it as an awards player. It’s the debut feature of Malcolm Washington, Denzel’s 33 year old son. If it’s amazing, I could see this becoming Netflix’s top priority but for now I am not too optimistic about its chances, though acting (especially Danielle Deadwyler in her supporting role), screenplay, costume design, production design, and makeup and hairstyling are all possible nominations.

     

    Challengers (Amazon MGM)

    A contender for the best film of the first half of 2024, Challengers is a sexy sports thriller featuring electrifying performances from its central threesome of Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist. While the film is loved by many, I don’t see it getting anything past a possible Screenplay nod or a nomination for one of its three stars. If anything, it’ll function best as a vehicle to show how amazing Luca Guadagnino has had when he’s on the campaign circuit for Queer.

     

    The End (NEON)

    The Act of Killing is one of the most acclaimed films of the past 15 years. It cemented Joshua Oppenheimer as someone to watch no matter what he comes out with next. His next film The End is being described as a Golden Age-style musical about the last human family. That logline sounds absolutely fascinating and from a filmmaker as ambitiously visionary as Oppenheimer, great things can be expected. However, little is known about the project and it may not even be released this year. With a cast including Tilda Swinton, Michael Shannon, Moses Ingram, and George MacKay, expect major things from this film when it eventually sees the light of day.

     

    We Live in Time (A24)

    Director John Crowley has had a career of ups and downs. While 2015’s Brooklyn was one of the most critically acclaimed films of its year and received three Oscar nominations including Best Picture, his 2019 follow up feature The Goldfinch starring Ansel Elgort, Nicole Kidman, and Jeffrey Wright was a bust and panned by critics and audiences alike. With his romance drama We Live In Time, Crowley hopes to bounce back and with a pair of phenomenal performers in Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield, he may be able to do just that.

     

    The Room Next Door (Sony Classics)

    While his 2002 masterpiece Talk to Her won Best Original Screenplay and was nominated for Best Director, none of Pedro Almodovar’s films have been nominated for Best Picture. Almodovar’s films still remain popular with the Academy, his last two features Pain and Glory and Parallel Mothers both received acting nominations for their leading stars (Antonio Banderas and Penelope Cruz respectively). While The Room Next Door hasn’t been confirmed this year, it would be Almodovar’s first English-language film of his career. Starring Tilda Swinton, Julianne Moore, and John Turturro, this drama seems poised for acting and screenplay nominations once it comes out.

     

    Maria (TBA)

    Pablo Larrain’s last two English language films Jackie and Spencer earned Best Actress nominations for their respective leading ladies Natalie Portman and Kristen Stewart. With her performance as Maria Callas in Larrain’s newest, Angelina Jolie hopes to follow in Portman and Stewart’s footsteps. A nomination for her is pretty likely especially if the film and her performance are received well at Venice.

     

    The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM)

    While a sports drama directed by Black Panther cinematographer and written by Barry Jenkins sounds enticing on paper, I don’t see this film as being much more than a vehicle for a Brian Tyree Henry supporting nod. But who knows, maybe this film will play as well as King Richard did and become the inspirational true story sports drama that takes multiple above-the-line nods including Picture, acting, and screenplay.

     

    All We Imagine as Light (Janus)

    Payal Kapadia is one of my favorite filmmakers working today just from her debut The Night of Knowing Nothing about anti-caste protests in India. All We Imagine is Light is the highest-rated feature film on Metacritic of the year so far and while Kapadia’s film is likely too quiet for the Academy’s tastes, a Drive My Car-style groundswell campaign from the critics isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

     

    Hand of Dante (TBA)

    Julian Schnabel earned a surprise nomination for At Eternity’s Gate star Willem Dafoe back in 2019, can he do the same for Hand of Dante lead Oscar Isaac? While it is possible, Dafoe was also playing a known commodity in Vincent Van Gogh which undoubtedly helped him towards that nomination. However, Hand of Dante looks to be an especially ambitious film featuring names like Al Pacino, Gerard Butler, Martin Scorsese, Gal Gadot, Jason Momoa, and John Malkovich. Don’t count this film out and I’m excited to see how it’s received once it inevitably hits festivals.

     

    His Three Daughters (Netflix)

    Azazel Jacobs’ last feature French Exit was supposed to be an Oscar nod comeback vehicle for star Michelle Pfeiffer. That did not pan out and while Jacobs’ newest has much better reviews, I am still skeptical on Natasha Lyonne and Elisabeth Olsen’s chances for their work in film. While I think it’s possible that Lyonne specifically gets a Supporting Actress nod for her work in the film, I think it’s unlikely since the film seems too small. But if either of these actresses get big enough of a critics push, they can make it in come nominations morning.

     

    Juror #2 (Warner Bros.)

    Clint Eastwood has not been successful with the Academy with the last couple films he directed. However, Juror #2 is rumored to be the last film of his career and the Academy could choose to send off one of the most iconic figures in Hollywood history, for better or worse, with some sort of nomination. If the film is just OK, expect the film to get shut out completely, but if it’s good, we could see possible acting nominations for Eastwood in Lead Actor and Toni Collete in Supporting Actress.

     

    Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight)

    After the success of Poor Things last year, Yorgos Lanthimos is one of the hottest commodities in Hollywood. While Kinds of Kindness anthology format and good not great reviews will keep it from a Best Picture nomination, it could go the Ballad of Buster Scruggs route and surprise with a Screenplay nomination.

     

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    This movie wouldn’t be on anyone’s radar if it wasn’t for the participation of the one and only Barry Jenkins. The first live-action Lion King was limited to a Visual Effects nomination and Jenkins’ version is a contender in Animated Feature and Visual Effects. If acclaimed enough, the film may even be a possible winner in either of those categories and a possible nominee in a category like Sound.

     

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Steve McQueen – Blitz

    Denis Villenueve – Dune: Part Two

    Luca Guadagnino – Queer

    Sean Baker – Anora

    Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez

    Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – Gladiator 2, Mike Leigh – Hard Truths, Joshua Oppenheimer – The End, RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys, Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing, Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Sean Wang – Didi, Yorgos Lanthimos – Kinds of Kindness, George Miller – Furiosa, Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis

     

    BEST ACTOR

    Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

    Daniel Craig – Queer

    Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

    Paul Mescal – Gladiator 2

    Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time

    Could Jump In: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain, Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie a Deux, Jesse Plemmons – Kinds of Kindness, Timothee Chalamet – Dune: Part Two, Oscar Isaac – Hand of Dante, Clint Eastwood – Juror#2

     

    BEST ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Blitz

    Angelina Jolie – Maria

    Mikey Madison – Anora

    Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths

    Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

    Could Jump In: Tilda Swinton or Julianne Moore – The Room Next Door, Lady Gaga – Jolie: Folie a Deux

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

    Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing

    Denzel Washington – Gladiator 2

    Stephen Graham – Blitz

    Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

    Could Jump In: Pedro Pascal – Gladiator 2, Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice, Harris Dickinson – Blitz, Daveed Diggs – Nickel Boys, Brian Tyree Henry – The Fire Inside, Stanley Tucci – Conclave, John Lithgow – Conclave, Mike Faist – Challengers, Austin Butler – Dune: Part Two, John Turturro – The Room Next Door, Al Pacino – Hand of Dante

     

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys

    Saoirse Ronan – Blitz (if supporting)

    Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

    Lesley Manville – Queer

    Joan Chen – Didi

    Could Jump In: Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson, Toni Colette – Juror #2, Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez, Maria Bakalova – The Apprentice, Emily Blunt – The Smashing Machine, Isabella Rossellini – Conclave, Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Anora

    Blitz

    A Real Pain

    Kinds of Kindness

    Hard Truths

    Could Jump In: Didi, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Room Next Door, The Fire Inside

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Queer

    Sing Sing

    The Nickel Boys

    Conclave

    The Piano Lesson

    Could Jump In: Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Gladiator 2

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Inside Out 2

    The Wild Robot

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

    Flow

    Could Jump In: Moana 2, Ultraman: Rising

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator 2

    Blitz

    Furiosa

    Nickel Boys

    Could Jump In: Joker 2. Maria, Conclave, Emilia Perez

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune: Part Two

    Furiosa

    Queer

    Gladiator 2

    Nosferatu

    Could Jump In: Maria, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune: Part Two

    Blitz

    Gladiator 2

    Furiosa

    Maria

    Could Jump In: Wicked, Nosferatu, Joker 2, Nickel Boys

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune: Part Two

    Blitz

    Anora

    Gladiator 2

    Emilia Perez

    Could Jump In: Conclave, Joker 2, The Fire Inside

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Dune: Part Two

    Furiosa

    Nosferatu

    Joker 2

    Wicked

    Could Jump In: Maria, Gladiator 2, Nickel Boys

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune: Part Two

    Furiosa

    Blitz

    Gladiator 2

    Joker 2

    Could Jump In: Emilia Perez, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune: Part Two

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    Furiosa

    Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

    Wicked

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune: Part Two

    Gladiator 2

    Queer

    Mufasa: The Lion King

    Conclave

    Could Jump In: Maria, Joker: Folie a Deux, Sing Sing, The Room Next Door, Challengers

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions

    After almost a year of predicting, the day is finally here. I’ve been predicting this year’s race since March and while this year has been generally easier to forecast than most (I had predicted five of the eventual Best Picture nominees by May), it’s still had its twists and turns. The 96th Academy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the fourth time and broadcasted on ABC on Sunday, March 10 at 7 p.m. CST. This was a year of auteur blockbusters (Oppenheimer and Barbie), indie word-of-mouth hits (Poor Things and Past Lives) and passion projects from names we’ve seen here for decades (Killers of the Flower Moon and The Holdovers). It’s one of the few years where I can say that almost every film nominated deserves to be considered some of the best of the year (biggest exception being Maestro). But without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions:

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST PICTURE:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    BEST DIRECTOR:

    Winner: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST ACTOR:

    Winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

     

    ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ (Apple TV+)

    BEST ACTRESS:

    Winner: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Could Steal: Emma Stone – Poor Things

     

    ;Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

    Winner: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

    ‘The Holdovers’ (Focus)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

    Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ (NEON)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

    Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

    Could Steal: The Holdovers

     

    ‘American Fiction’ (MGM)

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

    Winner: American Fiction

    Could Steal: Barbie or Oppenheimer

     

    ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ (Sony)

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 

    Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    Could Steal: The Boy and the Heron

     

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 

    Winner: Poor Things

    Could Steal: Barbie

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 

    Winner: Barbie

    Could Steal: Poor Things

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST FILM EDITING:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Poor Things’ (Searchlight)

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

    Winner: Poor Things

    Could Steal: Maestro

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST SOUND:

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: The Zone of Interest

     

    ‘Godzilla Minus One’ (Toho)

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 

    Winner: Godzilla Minus One

    Could Steal: The Creator

     

    ‘Oppenheimer’ (Universal)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 

    Winner: Oppenheimer

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Barbie’ (Warner Bros.)

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

    Winner: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

    Could Steal: Barbie – “I’m Just Ken”

     

    ‘The Zone of Interest’ (A24)

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

    Winner: The Zone of Interest

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ’20 Days in Mariupol’ (PBS)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 

    Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

    Could Steal: No one

     

    ‘Ninety-Five Senses’ (Documentary+)

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

    Winner: Ninety-Five Senses

    Could Steal: Letter to a Pig or WAR is OVER

     

    ;The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar’ (Netflix)

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

    Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

    Could Steal: Red, White, and Blue

     

    ‘The Last Repair Shop’ (LA Times/Searchlight)

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

    Winner: The Last Repair Shop

    Could Steal: The ABCs of Book Banning or Nai Nai and Wai Po

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    I love it when the biggest award of the night is the easiest to predict. Christopher Nolan, a beloved auteur for over a decade has made his foray into an Academy favorite: the historical biopic. Not only did Oppenheimer become the highest grossing historical biopic of all time worldwide, but the film also became the second highest grossing rated R film ever in terms of worldwide box office. When film historians look back on 2023, many will see this past year as the year of Barbenheimer. While both Barbie and Oppenheimer tapped into the cultural zeitgeist in a major way, Oppenheimer was clearly the more critically-acclaimed of the two and the favorite among film aficionados (Oppenheimer has a 4.2 on Letterboxd while Barbie has a 3.9). To many, Oppenheimer was the movie that showed Hollywood that films with serious themes could have major commercial success. For people like Martin Scorsese and Francis Ford Coppola, the Barbenheimer phenomena was a cause for optimism for the future of Hollywood cinema. Like Everything Everywhere All at Once last year, Oppenheimer is a sign that auteur-driven dramas can be cultural events and that’s something everyone in Hollywood can get behind.

    Nominees:

    Oppenheimer– GG (Drama), PGA, SAG, DGA, CCA, BAFTA

    Poor Things – GG (Comedy/Musical)

    The Holdovers

    Anatomy of a Fall

    The Zone of Interest

    Killers of the Flower Moon

    American Fiction

    Barbie

    Past Lives

    Maestro

    Pick: Oppenheimer

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Christopher Nolan has been an Oscars bridesmaid for over two decades. He’s been nominated for eight and somehow Nolan’s second Directing nomination came just this year. On Sunday, the Academy will finally reward one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of the 21st century with his first gold statue.

    Nominees:

    Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest

    Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things

    Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall

    Pick: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    If Cillian Murphy hadn’t won SAG, this would be a very competitive category. But as it stands right now, CCA is the only major precursor where Murphy did not triumph. A beloved character actor for years, Murphy turns in one of the most acclaimed turns of the year in a biopic that also happens to soon be this year’s Best Picture winner. He has the narrative he needs and this is his time.

    Nominees:

    Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, BAFTA, SAG

    Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – CCA

    Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

    Bradley Cooper – Maestro

    Colman Domingo – Rustin

    Pick: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

    BEST ACTRESS

    The most difficult to predict of the acting categories, this race will come down to the two stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While Stone has won Best Actress at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, Lily Gladstone won at the Screen Actors Guild, which is exactly what Michelle Yeoh had won when she won in this category last year. Stone is a previous winner as well (for La La Land), and the passion to award her likely won’t be as strong as it will be for Gladstone, who has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated in the category. Both are very worthy, though, so either way one of the best performances of the year will be awarded here. Interestingly, Yeoh, the first Asian actress to win Lead Actress, and Halle Berry, the first Black actress to win Lead Actress both won just SAG en route to their historic success. I think Gladstone will follow their example. It’s important to mention that Yeoh’s film was a Best Picture winner and Poor Things is a bigger BP contender than Killers of the Flower Moon is. But, at the same time, KOTFM will likely not win anywhere else while Poor Things has very strong chances elsewhere. If KOTFM gets completely snubbed, it will fall in the trend of Scorsese films racking up 10 nods and winning none (see: Gangs of New York and The Irishman).

    Nominees:

    Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, SAG

    Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall

    Carey Mulligan – Maestro

    Annette Bening – Nyad

    Pick: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Robert Downey Jr. winning here is one of most locked wins of the night. He has won every major precursor leading up to now and has probably one of the best narratives any actor could want (young ingenue-troubled times-rebounds as massive blockbuster star-kills serious biopic role).

    Nominees: 

    Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Ryan Gosling – Barbie

    Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

    Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things

    Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

    Pick: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Da’ Vine Joy Randolph has cleaned up practically every precursor here, even the minor ones. There is just no one even approaching her level this year.

    Nominees:

    Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

    Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

    Jodie Foster – Nyad

    America Ferrara – Barbie

    Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

  • Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    After being the first non-English language film to win a Golden Globe for Best Screenplay, Anatomy of a Fall has launched itself to the top contender in this category. While The Holdovers and Past Lives are worthy contenders, writing (and real life) partners Justine Triet and Arthur Harari’s nuanced examination of marriage, family and regret is the best screenplay of the year and has deservedly been sweeping up awards left and right on the road to its final bout at the Oscars. While The Holdovers is a possible upset here, Anatomy of a Fall will win nowhere else, and The Holdovers is basically guaranteed to take Supporting Actress so expect Triet and Harari to see a groundswell of support here.

    Nominees:

    Anatomy of a Fall – BAFTA, GG

    The Holdovers

    Past Lives

    May December

    Maestro

    Pick: Anatomy of a Fall

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    While some people have Oppenheimer winning here, I don’t see Nolan sweeping Picture, Director, and Screenplay. The fact that Oppenheimer has hardly won anywhere for Screenplay is indicative that most think that there are worthier contenders here. To me, this is between American Fiction and Barbie, two satires that blend comedy, drama, and a sociocultural consciousness. American Fiction clearly has much more industry love than its box office would suggest. Part of me thinks that if a movie called American Fiction can take this category at BAFTA, it can win anywhere. But does American Fiction have the love needed? It seems like it does, it’s nominations in Supporting Actor and Original Score were not predicted by many. Also in its favor is that while Oppenheimer and Barbie will be awarded elsewhere, this is American Fiction’s best chance for Oscar gold. Speaking of Barbie, a month and a half ago, Gerwig seemed like the obvious winner here. Barbie was presumably the zeitgeisty satire that had popular support and would take a screenplay win like Get Out in 2018. However, Barbie missed in both Director and Actress and while the amount of outrage that resulted could help it here, that outcry didn’t seem to have an effect on the film’s performance at BAFTA, SAG, ADG, etc.

    Nominees: 

    American Fiction – BAFTA, USC, CCA

    Barbie – CCA*

    Oppenheimer

    Poor Things

    The Zone of Interest

    *Barbie won in the Original Screenplay at the Critics Choice Awards

    Pick: American Fiction