Awards Insights

Tag: SAG

  • SAG Awards 2023: Fraser Triumphs; EEAAO Completes PGA, DGA, SAG Trifecta

    SAG Awards 2023: Fraser Triumphs; EEAAO Completes PGA, DGA, SAG Trifecta

    Everything Everywhere All at Once has now won the guild trifecta of PGA, DGA, and SAG, something no film has done since 2015’s Best Picture winner Birdman. It also took three of the four acting awards, showing the massive amount of love that SAG had for the film. With Michelle Yeoh’s win, no contender has won all four major acting precursors, making this year one of the most up in the air in a while.

    Brendan Fraser’s SAG-winning speech was incredible, powerful, and rousing. It’s exactly the kind of speech that turns Academy members heads and his performance is the kind of transformational, head-turning work that receives Oscars. While Austin Butler triumphed at the Globes and at BAFTA, those two awards bodies award young actors in the major acting categories more often than the Academy usually does. I think Fraser has this.

    While Barry Keoghan won at BAFTA, that was a one-off and Ke Huy Quan will easily take the Oscar. Now, the other supporting category isn’t as clear cut. While Jamie Lee Curtis surprised with a win here, that is an incredibly predictable SAG pick (they have a preference for big stars). So the question is will the Academy will go with Angela Bassett (who has GG and CCA like 2019 winner Regina King) or will they go with Kerry Condon (who has just BAFTA like Mark Rylance in 2016)? At this stage, I am leaning towards Condon since I think Bassett would have been a no-brainer prediction if she had won SAG but my thoughts on this have been like a yo-yo.

    While Michelle Yeoh is the lead from the film that has unquestionably captured the zeitgeist, Tar clearly has love from the academy being the only film with Picture, Directing, Editing, acting, and Cinematography nominations. I think Blanchett will take this, though like with my Supporting Actress prediction this is subject to change.

    Here are the winners and nominees:

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

    WINNER: Everything Everywhere All At Once

    Babylon

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    The Fabelmans

    Women Talking

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

    WINNER: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

    Austin Butler, Elvis

    Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Bill Nighy, Living

    Adam Sandler, Hustle

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

    WINNER: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Cate Blanchett, Tár

    Viola Davis, The Woman King

    Ana de Armas, Blonde

    Danielle Deadwyler, Till

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    WINNER: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

    Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    Hong Chau, The Whale

    Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

    Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES

    WINNER: The White Lotus

    Better Call Saul

    The Crown

    Ozark

    Severance

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

    WINNER: Jason Bateman, Ozark

    Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul

    Jeff Bridges, The Old Man

    Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

    Adam Scott, Severance

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

    WINNER: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

    Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

    Julia Garner, Ozark

    Laura Linney, Ozark

    Zendaya, Euphoria

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY AN ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES

    WINNER: Abbott Elementary

    Barry

    The Bear

    Hacks

    Only Murders in the Building

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

    WINNER: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

    Anthony Carrigan, Barry

    Bill Hader, Barry

    Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

    Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

    WINNER: Jean Smart, Hacks

    Christina Applegate, Dead to Me

    Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

    Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

    Jenna Ortega, Wednesday

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

    WINNER: Sam Elliott, 1883

    Steve Carell, The Patient

    Taron Egerton, Black Bird

    Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird

    Evan Peters, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A TELEVISION MOVIE OR LIMITED SERIES

    WINNER: Jessica Chastain, George and Tammy

    Emily Blunt, The English

    Julia Garner, Inventing Anna

    Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer- Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

    Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE

    WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick

    Avatar: The Way of Water

    The Batman

    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

    The Woman King

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY OR DRAMA SERIES

    WINNER: Stranger Things

    Andor

    The Boys

    House of the Dragon

    Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power

    Source: Vanity Fair

  • SAG 2023 Nominees Announced: ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘Banshees’ Lead Pack With 5 Each

    SAG 2023 Nominees Announced: ‘Everything Everywhere’ and ‘Banshees’ Lead Pack With 5 Each

    Both Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin cemented their place as the top two contenders of this year’s race with record-tying hauls at SAG. Both received 5 nods apiece which only three films, Shakespeare in Love, Chicago, and Doubt, have done before. The former two went on to win Best Picture.

    MOVIES

    Outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture

    Babylon
    The Banshees of Inisherin
    Everything Everywhere All at Once
    The Fabelmans
    Women Talking

    Outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role

    Cate Blanchett (Tar)
    Viola Davis (The Woman King)
    Ana de Armas (Blonde)
    Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
    Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role

    Austin Butler (Elvis)
    Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
    Bill Nighy (Living)
    Adam Sandler (Hustle)

    Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role

    Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
    Hong Chau (The Whale)
    Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

    Outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role

    Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
    Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
    Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
    Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

    TELEVISION

    Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a comedy series

    Abbott Elementary
    Barry
    The Bear
    Hacks
    Only Murders in the Building

    Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series

    Better Call Saul
    The Crown
    Ozark
    Severance
    The White Lotus

    Outstanding performance by a female actor in a miniseries or television movie

    Emily Blunt (The English)
    Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy)
    Julia Garner (Inventing Anna)
    Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)
    Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout)

    Outstanding performance by a male actor in a miniseries or television movie

    Steve Carell (The Patient)
    Taron Egerton (Black Bird)
    Sam Elliott (1883)
    Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird)
    Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story)

    Outstanding performance by a female actor in a comedy series

    Christina Applegate (Dead to Me)
    Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)
    Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary)
    Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
    Jean Smart (Hacks)

    Outstanding performance by a male actor in a comedy series

    Anthony Carrigan (Barry)
    Bill Hader (Barry)
    Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)
    Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)
    Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)

    Outstanding performance by a male actor in a drama series

    Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
    Jason Bateman (Ozark)
    Jeff Bridges (The Old Man)
    Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
    Adam Scott (Severance)

    Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama series

    Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
    Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
    Julia Garner (Ozark)
    Laura Linney (Ozark)
    Zendaya (Euphoria)

    STUNTS

    Outstanding action performance by a stunt ensemble in a comedy or drama television series

    Andor
    The Boys
    House of the Dragon
    Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power
    Stranger Things

    Outstanding action performance by a stunt ensemble in a motion picture

    Avatar: The Way of Water
    The Batman
    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
    Top Gun: Maverick
    The Woman King

    Source: People

  • SAG Nominations: Kristen Stewart Misses and ‘House of Gucci’ Overperforms

    SAG Nominations: Kristen Stewart Misses and ‘House of Gucci’ Overperforms

    The SAG nods were released a few hours ago and with them in our possession only the BAFTA noms are left in terms of major acting precursors. As usual, there were some surprises. Biggest of all being Kristen Stewart, who was marked as the frontrunner for a Best Actress nomination by many (including me) missed a SAG nomination. In her place was Jennifer Hudson who many thought, for all intents and purpose, was out of the race.

    House of Gucci overperformed and other than its expected inclusion for Lady Gaga in Best Actress it was also nominated for Best Cast Ensemble and Best Supporting Actor for Jared Leto (nominated by SAG for the second time in the row as he was picked last year for The Little Things). There were other surprises in Supporting Actor as Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) were nominated, Cooper receiving his first major precursor nod. Also, both Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds of Belfast missed as well.

    Anyways, here are the SAG nominations:

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

    Murray Bartlett (“The White Lotus”)  

    Oscar Isaac (“Scenes From a Marriage”)  

    Michael Keaton (“Dopesick”) 

    Ewan McGregor (“Halston”)  

    Evan Peters (“Mare of Easttown”) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

    Jennifer Coolidge (“The White Lotus”)  

    Cynthia Erivo (“Genius: Aretha”)  

    Margaret Qualley (“Maid”)  

    Jean Smart (“Mare of Easttown”)  

    Kate Winslet (“Mare of Easttown”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

    Michael Douglas (“The Kominsky Method”)  

    Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”) 

    Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”)  

    Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”)  

    Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

    Elle Fanning (“The Great”)

    Sandra Oh (“The Chair”)

    Jean Smart (“Hacks”

    Juno Temple (“Ted Lasso”)

    Hannah Waddingham (“Ted Lasso”)

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

    “The Great” (Hulu)  

    “Hacks” (HBO Max)  

    “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)

    “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)  

    “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

    Brian Cox (“Succession”) 

    Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”) 

    Kieran Culkin (“Succession”)  

    Lee Jung-Jae (“Squid Game”)  

    Jeremy Strong (“Succession”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

    Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) 

    Jung Ho-yeon (“Squid Game”)

    Elizabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”)  

    Sarah Snook (“Succession”) 

    Reese Witherspoon (“The Morning Show”) 

    Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

    “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu) 

    “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus) 

    “Squid Game” (Netflix) 

    “Succession” (HBO) 

    “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    Caitríona Balfe (“Belfast”)  

    Cate Blanchett (“Nightmare Alley”)  

    Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”)

    Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”)  

    Ruth Negga (“Passing) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    Ben Affleck (“The Tender Bar”)  

    Bradley Cooper (“Licorice Pizza”)  

    Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)  

    Jared Leto (“House of Gucci”)  

    Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)  

    Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”)  

    Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) 

    Jennifer Hudson (“Respect”)  

    Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”)  

    Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”)  

    Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”) 

    Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick … Boom!”) 

    Will Smith (“King Richard”)  

    Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”) 

    Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

    “Belfast” (Focus Features)  

    “CODA” (Apple Original Films) 

    “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)  

    “House of Gucci” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)  

    “King Richard” (Warner Bros)  

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

    “Black Widow”

    “Dune”

    “The Matrix Resurrections”

    “No Time to Die”

    “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

    Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series

    “Cobra Kai”

    “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”

    “Loki”

    “Mare of Easttown”

    “Squid Game”

  • SAG Awards: Trouble for Mulligan and ‘Trial’ has Re-entered the Top-3

    SAG Awards: Trouble for Mulligan and ‘Trial’ has Re-entered the Top-3

    MOVIES

    Actor: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

    Female actor: Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”

    Supporting actor: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”

    Supporting female actor: Youn Yuh-jung, “Minari”

    Cast: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

    Stunt Ensemble: “Wonder Woman 1984”

    TELEVISION

    Actor in a TV movie or miniseries: Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much is True.”

    Female actor in a TV movie or miniseries: Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Queen’s Gambit”

    Actor in a drama series: Jason Bateman, “Ozark”

    Female actor in a drama series: Gillian Anderson, “The Crown”

    Actor in a comedy series: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”

    Female actor in a comedy series: Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek.”

    Ensemble in a drama series: “The Crown”

    Ensemble in a comedy series: “Schitt’s Creek”

    Television stunt ensemble: “The Mandalorian”

    Film stunt ensemble: “Wonder Woman 1984”

     

    Source: Associated Press

     

    So these awards show a few things

    1. Chadwick Boseman and Daniel Kaluuya will almost certainly win in their categories
    2. Carey Mulligan, the Critics’ Choice winner, looks very vulnerable in Best Actress and someone like Andra Day or Viola Davis, the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild winner respectively, could definitely swoop up and take this. Since none of these three actresses are nominated at BAFTA, this Best Actress race will be one of the most unpredictable in years as 4 different actresses will win the four major precursors.
    3. Youn Yuh-Jung has now won at SAG, Bakalova has won at CCA and this will be a close contest between the two until the very last moment. They both were nominated at BAFTA so lets see what happens when they face off there.
    4. Minari’s chances of winning Best Picture are essentially zero now as the film did not win here, at WGA (it was ineligible), or at PGA. It was also surprising how this year of all years, the SAG chose a film with all-male nominees as their winner. Anyway, The Trial of the Chicago 7, along with Promising Young Woman and Nomadland, are the top-3 frontrunners and ‘Trial’ may even be in a better place than ‘Promising’.
  • SAG Preview: Will ‘Minari’ Surge Here on Its Way to the Oscars?

    SAG Preview: Will ‘Minari’ Surge Here on Its Way to the Oscars?

    The SAG awards will be announced on Sunday (even though the winners have already been notified of their wins since this will be a recorded ceremony) and they are an extremely significant precursor when it comes to the acting awards.

    BEST ENSEMBLE

    Nominees:

    Minari

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    One Night in Miami

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Da 5 Bloods

    In the history of the SAG awards, almost no film that has won this award was not a Best Picture nominee (the sole exception being The Birdcage at the 2nd SAG awards). That means that Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the two frontrunners. Additionally, no film with a group of all-male nominees has ever won the Best Ensemble award which, precludes The Trial of the Chicago 7 from winning in my view as the cast members that they submitted for this award are all male.

    This leaves Minari as the film that will most likely win come Sunday and this win could edge it closer to being a contender in the Best Picture race. However, I still think that Nomadland has Best Picture essentially locked down.

    BEST ACTOR

    Nominees: 

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    While the SAG voters are known for giving legendary actors their late career due as they did with Glenn Close two years ago, I don’t see how Chadwick Boseman loses this even with Anthony Hopkins in contention. Boseman should be able to win this one easily.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Nominees:

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    To me, this could easily could go to Mulligan, McDormand, or Davis. I could see any of those three winning but both McDormand and Davis have won here in the last 10 years so I am going to go with Mulligan. If Mulligan wins here, I think she is the favorite to win the Oscar but if she doesn’t the winner here will probably win instead. I am a little hesitant about saying that Andra Day will win the Oscar as she was not nominated at SAG and no Best Actress winner, in the era of the SAG awards, was not nominated for a SAG award. Also, in the last 10 years, 8 of the 10 SAG winners in this category ended up winning the Oscar as well.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Jared Leto – The Little Things

    Like Boseman, Kaluuya has this and the Oscar essentially locked. If he somehow loses this to Odom Jr. or Cohen I will be a lot more hesitant about putting him in at Oscar

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Nominees:

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Helena Zengel – News of the World

    Even though some people are saying that Close could win this, it’s really between Bakalova and Youn for me. Bakalova won CCA and if she wins this, she’ll most probably win Oscar. If Youn wins this, she’ll definitely win Oscar as well since, as of right now, I do not have Minari winning anything at the Oscars and if it wins two awards at SAG it is very unlikely that it’ll be shut out at the Oscars and this category is its best chance.

    BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE

    Da 5 Bloods

    Mulan

    Wonder Woman 1984

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    The last 5 winners in this category are: Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Hacksaw Ridge, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which were all critically-acclaimed action movies. This year due to the pandemic, these types of movies had their release dates moved back so none of this year’s nominees truly fit the mold of previous winners. Mulan has the kind of melee, physical combat that this category likes but would be an unpopular pick due to the backlash this film received. As a result, I am going to go with Da 5 Bloods as its war scenes could push it over the top.

    The SAG Awards will air on Sunday, April 4

  • Parasite shocks (not entirely true) at SAG

    Parasite shocks (not entirely true) at SAG

    Parasite won the best ensemble castaward at the Screen Actors Guild awards over frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

    (more…)

  • The Most Important Weekend In The Best Picture Race Is Here

    The Most Important Weekend In The Best Picture Race Is Here

    Today, The Producers Guild Awards announces its winners for Best Theatrical Motion Picture.

    PGA

    Because the Producers Guild of America shares many of its members with the Academy we see a lot of crossover in their Best Picture winners. They also adopted the preferential ballot system the same year the Academy did and have been using it ever since.

    Here are their last 10 winners:

    • – indicates Best Picture win

    2019 – Green Book*

    2018 – The Shape of Water*

    2017 – La La Land

    2016 – The Big Short

    2015 – Birdman*

    2014 – 12 Years a Slave* and Gravity (TIE)

    2013 – Argo*

    2012 – The Artist*

    2011 – The King’s Speech*

    2010 – The Hurt Locker*

    Onto this year’s nominees:

    If presumed frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins this award it will win Best Picture at the Oscar. However, I smell a surprise brewing and I doubt that it will win the PGA. This is for two reasons, the film’s lack of an editing nomination at the Oscars and the Bruce Lee controversy during the fall. I think it might end up like Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and get very close, but not win Best Picture. That film also lost the PGA to The Shape of Water.

    So what will win, I think 1917 has the kind of broad support that could bring it to the top and its Golden Globe win and amazing box office came at the perfect time.

    Jojo Rabbit (which I loved) and Joker have a few too many people that hate them to get the broad support that this award and Best Picture need. In the years before the preferential ballot these films would probably have better chances at getting the top prize at either of these awards bodies.

    Parasite is a strange case. It has the broad support a film needs to win, but as an international film it has that “one-inch tall” barrier to break. Still, there is a lot that separates it from last year’s foreign-language Best Picture frontrunner. Roma. First and most importantly, Parasite is a lot more entertaining than Roma. While they both are expertly-crafted films with emotional impact, Parasite is more involving for the average movie lover. So essentially, if we see Parasite winning this, don’t be surprised.

    The Irishman has mostly fizzled and Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, and Knives Out all have very outside chances to win (but there is always a possibility for anything).

    SAG

    Also this weekend is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which used to be more predictive of Best Picture but still is a good indicator of the preferences of the Academy’s largest branch, the actor’s branch.

    The Screen Actors Guild also shares many of its members with the academy, but has made some pretty outside choices since SAG became SAG-AFTRA in March 2012

    Here are their winners since 2013:

    • – indicates Best Picture winner

    2019 – Black Panther

    2018 – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

    2017 – Hidden Figures

    2016 – Spotlight*

    2015 – Birdman*

    2014 – American Hustle

    2013 – Argo*

    You can see every SAG winner here

    I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite both have shots at winning the SAG ensemble. My prediction is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but unlike if it wins at PGA, a “Hollywood” win here won’t virtually guarantee a Best Picture win.

    What SAG is more important in predicting is the acting categories at the Oscars. My predictions for those categories at SAG are the same as my predictions for those categories at the Oscars: Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor, Renee Zellweger for Best Actress, Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor, and Laura Dern for Best Supporting Actress. If these four win their categories at SAG, they will are virtually locked for the Oscars.