02 Apr SAG Preview: Will ‘Minari’ Surge Here on Its Way to the Oscars?
The SAG awards will be announced on Sunday (even though the winners have already been notified of their wins since this will be a recorded ceremony) and they are an extremely significant precursor when it comes to the acting awards.
The Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Da 5 Bloods
In the history of the SAG awards, almost no film that has won this award was not a Best Picture nominee (the sole exception being The Birdcage at the 2nd SAG awards). That means that Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are the two frontrunners. Additionally, no film with a group of all-male nominees has ever won the Best Ensemble award which, precludes The Trial of the Chicago 7 from winning in my view as the cast members that they submitted for this award are all male.
This leaves Minari as the film that will most likely win come Sunday and this win could edge it closer to being a contender in the Best Picture race. However, I still think that Nomadland has Best Picture essentially locked down.
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun – Minari
Gary Oldman – Mank
While the SAG voters are known for giving legendary actors their late career due as they did with Glenn Close two years ago, I don’t see how Chadwick Boseman loses this even with Anthony Hopkins in contention. Boseman should be able to win this one easily.
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
To me, this could easily could go to Mulligan, McDormand, or Davis. I could see any of those three winning but both McDormand and Davis have won here in the last 10 years so I am going to go with Mulligan. If Mulligan wins here, I think she is the favorite to win the Oscar but if she doesn’t the winner here will probably win instead. I am a little hesitant about saying that Andra Day will win the Oscar as she was not nominated at SAG and no Best Actress winner, in the era of the SAG awards, was not nominated for a SAG award. Also, in the last 10 years, 8 of the 10 SAG winners in this category ended up winning the Oscar as well.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Jared Leto – The Little Things
Like Boseman, Kaluuya has this and the Oscar essentially locked. If he somehow loses this to Odom Jr. or Cohen I will be a lot more hesitant about putting him in at Oscar
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Helena Zengel – News of the World
Even though some people are saying that Close could win this, it’s really between Bakalova and Youn for me. Bakalova won CCA and if she wins this, she’ll most probably win Oscar. If Youn wins this, she’ll definitely win Oscar as well since, as of right now, I do not have Minari winning anything at the Oscars and if it wins two awards at SAG it is very unlikely that it’ll be shut out at the Oscars and this category is its best chance.
BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
Da 5 Bloods
Wonder Woman 1984
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The last 5 winners in this category are: Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther, Wonder Woman, Hacksaw Ridge, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which were all critically-acclaimed action movies. This year due to the pandemic, these types of movies had their release dates moved back so none of this year’s nominees truly fit the mold of previous winners. Mulan has the kind of melee, physical combat that this category likes but would be an unpopular pick due to the backlash this film received. As a result, I am going to go with Da 5 Bloods as its war scenes could push it over the top.
The SAG Awards will air on Sunday, April 4