01 Dec Late November Oscar Predictions 2025
As we head into the heart of awards season, it’s time to take a deep dive into the Oscar race for 2025. This year’s lineup features a fascinating mix of indie darlings, epic sagas, and mainstream favorites that have captured the attention of audiences and critics alike. While a few films seem to be pulling ahead in the race for Best Picture, the landscape is still evolving, with plenty of surprises potentially in store. In this article, I break down the major players across all key categories. From the frontrunners in Best Picture like Anora and The Brutalist, both of which reflect the current zeitgeist of accessibility paired with social consciousness, to the promising contenders in acting and technical categories, I provide a detailed look at how this year’s contenders are shaping up. I’ve also sorted the potential nominees into tiers to help better understand who might have the momentum to go all the way to Oscar night glory.
BEST PICTURE
TIER 1
Anora (NEON)
The Brutalist (A24)
These are the top two films this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see these films battle it out as the season rages on. Both films received nods from the Gothams, Anora in Feature, Director, Lead Performance (Mikey Madison), and Supporting Performance (Yura Borisov), and The Brutalist in Lead Performance (Adrien Brody) and Supporting Performance (Guy Pearce). Both films also currently boast incredible IMDb and Metacritic scores (Anora is at a 8.2 and 91 and The Brutalist is at a 8.1 and 88, respectively), illustrating favor from audiences and critics. Previously, I have talked about how every Best Picture winner since Spotlight in 2016 has had the combination of accessibility and social consciousness. Both of these films fit that trend and I think this year’s Best Picture winner can only be either of these films. Anora is an allegory about class and exploitation, while The Brutalist is an epic about the immigrant experience and capitalism. Expect both of them to be multi-nominated films.
TIER 2
Conclave (Focus)
Unlike previous years, there is a very large gulf between the top two Picture players and the rest of the pack. To me, Anora and The Brutalist are the only films that have a chance of winning and everything else will rack up nominations but will not be able to compete with those twin towers. Conclave’s best chance for an Oscar win are in Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. In Actor, I think Ralph Fiennes overdue narrative will only carry him so far and The Brutalist’s Adrien Brody will ultimately prevail. Adapted Screenplay is where the film is the clear frontrunner though I think something crowdpleasing like Sing Sing can upset especially later on in the season.
Emilia Perez (Netflix)
Along with Anora, Emilia Perez was one of the runner-ups for the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival this year, and it’s been racking up raves throughout the season. Expect nods for its lead Karla Sofia Gascon who if nominated, will become the first trans actress to be nominated for Best Lead Actress at the Oscars. Additionally, expect success below-the-line as well and a possible win campaign for Zoe Saldana in Best Supporting Actress. One thing that gives me slight pause is that Emilia Perez’s IMDb score is currently only at 7.0.
Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros.)
This is going to be the undeniable biggest below-the-line player of the year. The first film won six Oscars and this sequel had an even larger impact on pop culture. Its an undeniable top five player that should be able to earn a Best Director nod for Villeneuve even though he missed in that category for the first film. Expect to be a major contender in all the categories that it won last year, which were Sound, Visual Effects, Production Design, Score, Editing, and Cinematography. However, this year’s competition is much more stacked than that year so I doubt ‘Part Two’ will win as many as ‘Part One’
Sing Sing (A24)
A crowdpleaser like Best Picture winner CODA was three years ago, Sing Sing is the kind of film that can make a strong late season push if campaigned well. Its a film that can generate a lot of rousing widespread support with its messages of human solidarity, prisoner rehabilitation, and perseverance. Its the kind of indie humanist film that I could see being a surprise contender in Adapted Screenplay at the least.
TIER 3
Wicked (Universal)
After its box office success, rave reviews from both critics and audience, and plaudits from leading industry players, Wicked is going to be the second blockbuster nominee this year after Dune Part Two. Wicked has overshadowed its box office competition Gladiator II in essentially category, including both critical and commercial success. I think there is very little chance Gladiator II receives a Best Picture nomination after being overshadowed in nearly every way. Expect nominations for the film in both Actress and Supporting Actress (for both Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande respectively) and both Costume Design and Production Design.
A Real Pain (Searchlight)
This year’s ‘Sundance-breakout-to-Picture-nominee film, “A Real Pain”has definitely benefited from one of the best campaigning distributors in the game scooping it up. Searchlight will likely bring both this film and A Complete Unknown to Best Picture nominations. With a possible Oscar-winning performance from Kieran Culkin in Supporting Actor, A Real Pain will also earn a nod in Original Screenplay and possibly in Actor if Jesse Eisenberg is able to outpace Queer’s Daniel Craig as the season surges on.
A Complete Unknown (Searchlight)
With recent Picture nominees like Elvis or Bohemian Rhapsody, the Academy clearly loves its music biopics. However, A Complete Unknown’s path to actually winning an Oscar seems a lot more unclear. It’s best chance is probably in Best Actor where Timothee Chalamet is not currently a front runner but can be if The Brutalist or Conclave don’t end up being as big of players as I think they will be. Austin Butler also was not considered a top two contender two years ago around this time in the season but that quickly changed once the precursor awards heated up. The same thing may happen with Chalamet.
The Substance (A24)
In the last five years, there has been at least one film directed by a woman nominated in Best Picture. “The Substance”, with its European Film Award nominations and Cannes Best Screenplay win has shown itself able to rise above its “body horror movie” status: something the Academy has unfortunately looked down upon in the past. This movie is also kind of batshit crazy, so it WILL be alienating audience members
Nickel Boys (AmazonMGM)
This reminds me of “If Beale Street Could Talk”, which may or not have been nominated if it came out in a year where there could be ten nominees in Best Picture instead of eight. I think it has a high chance, but there is already a film that focuses on systemic racism in America in the Best Picture race and I think that Sing Sing’s greater relative accessibility could be a negative factor for Nickel Boys’ chances in this category.
Gladiator II
Gladiator II is a perfect case of “doing good, but not good enough”. The film’s critical acclaim was good but not great. Its box office was good but not as substantial as its competitor Wicked, and its word of mouth appeal is also overshadowed by the musical. While Denzel Washington will surely be nominated and the film will also receive nods in various technical categories, I doubt this will go home with any statues come Oscar night.
TIER 4
September 5
For a film that is supposedly “apolitical”, ignoring the context of the Palestinians that held nine Israeli athletes hostage and killed two others at the 1972 Munich Olympics, seems deeply political. However, this seems like the kind of film that the Academy might eat up, which pisses me off but whatever. Who expects the Academy to be in support of collective liberation anyways.
Blitz (Apple TV+)
Every year there’s a film like Blitz. A film with an acclaimed director, high profile cast, and an Oscar-baity premise that flounders by getting good but not great notices and ends up being shut out or close to shut out come nominations morning. Blitz is looking like this year’s iteration of that trend. While Saoirse Ronan might receive a nod, and so may the films Production and Costume Design, I don’t see this film getting more than three nods and it will definitely not be winning them.
TIER 5
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON)
This is a curio for me only because I feel like I won’t really be able to gauge how big this movie really is until the European Film Awards reveal their picks on December 7th. Once that day comes, this will be much easier to see but for now, keep a watch on this film and its director.
The Room Next Door (Sony Classics)
The winner of the Golden Lion at Venice, the first English feature from Spanish legend Pedro Almodovar, and featuring two fantastic performances from beloved actresses Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore, “The Room Next Door” can’t be completely denied as a Best Picture nominee contender. But even with all of this, its reviews are less than stellar and the passion for the film seems close-to-nonexistent
BEST DIRECTOR
To me this feels like a Picture and Screenplay split year. I think right now, Anora will take Picture and Original Screenplay while The Brutalist will take Director as it plays more like an ambitious directorial achievement than Anora does. Corbet and Baker are no-brainers here but which filmmakers will take the rest of the slots? I have now seen Emilia Perez and while I don’t think Audiard deserves a nomination, its definitely a unique vision of a film and those are the types of films the directors branch likes to nominate. Villeneuve missing for Dune: Part One gives me pause about his inclusion but I think he will be since this film is bigger than the former. At this point, the two other filmmakers that I think are most likely to take that fifth spot are Mohammed Rasoulof and Coralie Fargeat. I think one of them definitely will be nominated and right now I am leaning towards Fargeat because I think The Substance will be nominated in Best Picture but if The Seed of the Sacred Fig has an amazing night at the European Film Awards, my thoughts here will change…
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Sean Baker – Anora
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
TIER 2
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Mohammed Rasoulof – The Seed of the Sacred Fig
TIER 3
Edward Berger – Conclave
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys
Pedro Almodovar – The Room Next Door
BEST ACTOR
While it looks like it’s between Brody and Fiennes right now, why do I think that this is going to be between Brody and Chalamet soon? In my eyes, all three of those actors are locked with the addition of Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. The question is who will take that last slot? Will it be Jesse Eisenberg riding on a wave of support for future Best Picture nominee A Real Pain or will it be Daniel Craig for his critically-raved performance in Queer? I think Craig will take this if he is immensely successful at the critics awards but without that I think Eisenberg will take this.
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Could Jump In: Daniel Craig – Queer, Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
BEST ACTRESS
This is kind of a strange year in Best Actress. The two biggest Best Picture contenders with female leads are Anora and Emilia Perez, but both their leads are mainstream newcomers that don’t feel like obvious winners here. Mikey Madison’s work in Anora will undoubtedly rack up critics’ prizes and her performance is definitely win-worthy, but I’m not sure how much of the Academy will award someone who they haven’t heard about before. It’s not impossible, just unlikely. Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas is the kind of biopic role that would’ve won here in the 2000s but I doubt she will win now, especially since Jolie is already an Oscar winner. To me, the last two slots are between Demi Moore, Cynthia Erivo, and Nicole Kidman. I want to see whether the critics gravitate more towards Moore or Kidman’s performance, I am leaning more towards Erivo and Moore right now because I have both their films in Picture.
Mikey Madison – Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
Angelina Jolie – Maria
Demi Moore – The Substance
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Babygirl, Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths, Tilda Swinton – The Room Next Door
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Culkin, Pearce, and Washington are all pretty much shoo-ins here. I think it’s pretty likely that Clarence Maclin gets in here as well but the last slot is up in the air between Yura Borisov and Stanley Tucci. I think Tucci might have a better chance but also the love for Anora might bring Borisov into the pack.
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II
TIER 2
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Yura Borisov – Anora
Stanley Tucci – Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Saldana, Grande, and Jones are all pretty much guaranteed nods here. After watching Emilia Perez, I am unsure whether Zoe Saldana’s performance is enough to garner a win here but she definitely is more likely than Grande (I have not yet seen Jones’ performance).
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
TIER 2
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
Selena Gomez – Emilia Perez
Aunjanue Ellis – Nickel Boys
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
The Substance
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Could Jump In: Hard Truths, September 5, Saturday Night, Blitz, Challengers
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Emilia Perez
The Room Next Door
Could Jump In: Dune: Part Two, The Wild Robot
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Flow
Wallace and Gromit 2: Vengeance Most Fowl
Could Jump In: Moana 2
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Wicked
Gladiator II
Blitz
Could Jump In: Nosferatu, Conclave, Emilia Perez
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nickel Boys will not be getting nominated for Best Cinematography if it isn’t nominated for Best Picture. Dune: Part Two and The Brutalist are definitely guaranteed here, and Emilia Perez seems to be a popular choice here (even if I personally think its cinematography is kind of ugly at times).
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
Maria
Could Jump In: Nickel Boys, Conclave, Wicked
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
If Wicked is getting nominated for Best Picture, I think I am pretty confident about it winning here. This one is definitely competitive, the first seven here all would be able to be nominated here in other years. I could very easily see Nosferatu replacing something like Blitz or Maria if it’s as big of a contender as it could be. Watch out for a Maria miss here just like House of Gucci did a few years ago.
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Blitz
Could Jump In: Maria, A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist
BEST FILM EDITING
With its long takes and over three hour runtime I could see The Brutalist missing here. However, I doubt it will. Additionally, Emilia Perez is exactly the kind of film that does well here with its flashy, stylized editing (even if I think the editing is shit).
Anora
Emilia Perez
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Nosferatu
A Different Man
Could Jump In: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Wicked
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Could Jump In: Blitz, Twisters
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two
Gladiator II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Could Jump In: Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Saturday Night
The Room Next Door
Could Jump In: Challengers, The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Emilia Perez
The Wild Robot
Moana 2
Sing Sing
The Six Triple Eight
Could Jump In: Will and Harper, Piece by Piece, Better Man
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Sugarcane
No Other Land
Dahomey
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Daughters
Could Jump In: Will & Harper, Black Box Diaries
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Kneecap
I’m Still Here
Dahomey
Could Jump In: The Girl with the Needle