As Venice and Toronto have wrapped up, many under-the-radar contenders have emerged as major contenders. At Venice, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door won the Golden Lion, Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist won Best Director for Corbet, and Halina Reijn’s Babygirl won Best Actress for Nicole Kidman. The Brutalist was immediately cemented as a top five contender. Every year, Venice sees at least one top three Picture contender and The Brutalist, which has been dubbed “an instant classic” definitely seems to be this year’s iteration of that trend. The Room Next Door also has a possibility of making it into Best Picture but with a 70 Metascore and a 6.7 IMDb, I’m not sure if there’s enough passion behind this film to push it into the Best Picture slate (granted, it did win the Golden Lion so I may be wrong about this).
At Toronto, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck won the People’s Choice first place award, while Emilia Perez and Anora won the second and third place awards respectively. The Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award is one of the biggest indicators of Oscar success. Since 2012, every winner of the award has been nominated for Best Picture and at least three other awards.
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 11 years:
2023 – Special Presentations: American Fiction (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), The Zone of Interest
2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans (People’s Choice Award 1st Place), Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune
2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father
2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)
2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight
2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)
2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash
2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)
From this, it seems likely that three to five films that played at TIFF will make it into Best Picture. In order of likelihood, Anora, Emilia Perez, and Conclave have the best chances, but The Life of Chuck, The Piano Lesson also have a chance as well, especially if Gladiator II ends up being underwhelming.
Blitz has yet to premiere but stay tuned for its world premiere at the New York Film Festival in the next week.
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