It’s impossible to talk about the Oscar race right now without talking about Emilia Perez. The Jacques Audiard film was embroiled in controversy after it received 13 nominations in late January, the most of any other film. Complaints from queer groups, Latine groups, and people of conscience rang through Hollywood. But even more significantly for its Oscar chances, its star, trans actress Karla Sofia Gascon has been rollicked with backlash in the past week over racist and xenophobic tweets she made in the past few years. What made matters worse is that she gave a backhanded apology for these tweets and as a result, Netflix has forced her to distance herself from the film’s campaign. Jacques Audiard and Zoe Saldana have tried to distance themselves from Gascon in order to salvage the film’s Oscar chances but outside of a win for Saldana, I don’t think this film will be winning anything (yes, not even International Feature or Original Song, stay with me now). Both International Feature and Original Song have strong contenders in play. Fellow Picture nominee and Actress nominee I’m Still Here is also nominated for International Feature and with an 8.9 on IMDb right now and an 86 on Metacritic it has more than needed to be the upset of the night. Original Song admittedly doesn’t have as strong of a contender but I could see Diane Warren finally getting her long-awaited Oscar win this year after being an Oscar bridesmaid 15 times. Additionally, Like a Bird from Sing Sing has a chance as well. El Mal from Emilia Perez is driven purely by Zoe Saldana so that might be what allows it to win since she has (so far) gotten off Scot-free for her involvement in this film.
So what’s going to win Best Picture? With Emilia Perez out, the main contenders now are The Brutalist, Anora, and Conclave stand as the main contenders. Before I start, every winner since 2015 has had some socially conscious messaging and been generally liked by audiences. Every winner has had some major theme that the Academy could tout as proof of their “consciousness” (like anti-war with Oppenheimer, racism with Green Book, sexual abuse with Spotlight, etc.). All of these films have something like this, so how popular are they? Every Best Picture winner since Chicago has had an IMDb score of at least 7.3 which indicates general broad audience popularity. Though the average score of Best Picture winners in the past 15 years is closer to 7.8. Currently, The Brutalist has an 8.0, Anora has a 7.8, and Conclave has a 7.4. In my opinion, I think a 7.4 is a low score for a thriller that wants to win Best Picture. Fantasy drama The Shape of Water won seven years ago with a similar score but that film received more critical acclaim and also a Best Director nomination, something Conclave didn’t have. I think Conclave is guaranteed to win Adapted Screenplay at this point but I think it’s Picture chances are overblown because I don’t think the film lingers with you after the credits roll like Anora and The Brutalist do. It feels a little too slight for Best Picture.
The Brutalist would probably win this, it seems like the biggest movie this year and has won some important precursors. However, the controversy over its usage of AI to manipulate the accents of its actors cannot be overstated. While no one lost their jobs for this to occur, the usage of AI is one of the central reasons SAG and WGA went on strike last year. As a result, this is very likely to hurt the film, which opens the door for Conclave and Anora. While Anora was completely snubbed at the Golden Globes, the film is still the undisputed critics awards champion and also one of the funniest movies of the year that simultaneously also tackles a variety of different social issues. Many are counting it out but I think it’s a shoo-in for Best Original Screenplay. It was also nominated for the same amount of Oscars as Parasite was five years ago when it won Best Picture and I can’t help but see parallels between both films. Both were counted out at this point in the season, both won the Palme D’Or, both killed at the critics awards, both are distributed by Neon. I wouldn’t be surprised if Anora wins at SAG or CCA and starts its push to Oscar glory. It will win WGA but if it wins one of SAG or CCA, it’s taking the Oscar. Similarly, for Conclave, if it wins at SAG or PGA, it’s winning Best Picture.
BEST PICTURE
Prediction: Anora
Could Take: The Brutalist or Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
Prediction: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Could Take: Sean Baker – Anora
This would’ve been Adrien Brody’s to lose, but after The Brutalist’s AI controversy, Timothee Chalamet is taking this
BEST ACTOR
Prediction: Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Could Take: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
After Moore’s Golden Globe win, I think she’s taking this but since I predict a groundswell of support for Anora, Mikey Madison could come from behind and take this.
BEST ACTRESS
Prediction: Demi Moore – The Substance
Could Take: Mikey Madison – Anora
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Kieran Culkin
Could Take: N/A
As much as the Emilia Perez hurts the film’s chances, I just don’t see Saldana losing to anyone else who’s nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Could Take: N/A
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Anora
Could Take: The Brutalist
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Conclave
Could Take: Nickel Boys
Flow could upset here but I think The Wild Robot is beloved enough to win here. We will have to see what the CCA and PGA go with here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Prediction: The Wild Robot
Could Take: Flow
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Prediction: Wicked
Could Take: The Brutalist
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Prediction: The Brutalist
Could Take: N/A
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Prediction: Wicked
Could Take: N/A
I don’t see anything that’s not a genre film winning here and there’s no way Emilia Perez is winning this so I’m going with Conclave.
BEST FILM EDITING
Prediction: Conclave
Could Take: N/A
There is a lot of support for The Substance as evidenced by its nominations and I think this is where they award it outside of Actress.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Prediction: The Substance
Could Take: Wicked
BEST SOUND
Prediction: Wicked
Could Take: Dune: Part Two
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Could Take: N/A
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Prediction: The Brutalist
Could Take: Conclave
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Prediction: El Mal – Emilia Perez
Could Take: Six Triple Eight
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Prediction: I’m Still Here
Could Take: Emilia Perez
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Prediction: No Other Land
Could Take: Sugarcane
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Prediction: In the Shadow of the Cypress
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Prediction: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Prediction: I Am Ready, Warden
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