Venice, after Toronto of course, is the most important festival when it comes to the Oscar race. The last four winners there (The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland) have all been top 4 Best Picture contenders in their respective years and this seems to be a streak that shows no sign of stopping. As a result, the winner at Venice (unless it’s a very out-there pick) will likely become the first movie that can legitimately claim frontrunner status in the Oscar race.
At Venice, there are essentially two categories that can possibly hold a prospective Best Picture contender: In Competition and Out of Competition (Fiction).
These are the films in those two categories:
Opening Night
“Parallel Mothers,” Pedro Almodóvar (in competition)
Competition/Venezia 78
“Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon,” Ana Lily Amirpour
“Un Autre Monde,” Stephanie Brize
“The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion
“America Latina,” Damiano D’Innocenzo and Fabio D’Innocenzo
“L’Evenement,” Audrey Diwan
“Official Competition,” Gaston Duprat and Mariana Cohn
“Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino
“Sundown,” Michel Franco
“Illusions Perdues,” Xavier Giannoli
“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
“Spencer,” Pablo Larrain
“Freaks Out,” Gabrielle Mainetti
“Qui Rido Io,” Mario Martone
“On the Job: The Missing 8,” Erik Matti
“Leave No Traces,” Jan P. Matuszynski
“Captain Volkonogov Escaped,” Natasha Merkulova and Aleksey Chupov
“The Card Counter,” Paul Schrader
“The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino
“Reflection,” Valentyn Vasyanovych
“La Caja,” Lorenzo Vigas
Out of Competition (Fiction)
“Il Bambino Nascosto,” Roberto Ando (closing film of the festival)
“Les Choses Humaines,” Yvan Attal
“Ariaferma,” Leonardo di Costanzo
“Halloween Kills,” David Gordon Green
“La Scoula Cattolica,” Stefano Mordini
“Old Henry,” Potsy Ponciroli
“The Last Duel,” Ridley Scott
“Dune,” Denis Villeneuve
“Last Night in Soho,” Edgar Wright
“Scenes From a Marriage” (Episodes 1-5), Hagai Levi
Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 5 years:
2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)
2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story
2018 – In Competition: The Favourite, Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born
2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land; Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge
So, according to this, I believe that there will probably be two films from Venice’s In Competition group and one from their Out of Competition group that will end up as Best Picture nominees.
From the films in competition, I think those with the best chances at the Oscar are (in order of probability): The Power of the Dog, Parallel Mothers, The Hand of God, The Card Counter, Spencer, and The Lost Daughter.
From the films out of competition, those with the best odds in my opinion for attaining a Best Picture nom are (in order of probability): Dune, The Last Duel, and Last Night in Soho.
Here is the rest of Venice’s slate:
Out of Competition (Non Fiction)
“Life of Crime 1984-2020,” Jon Alpert
“Tranchees,” Loup Bureau
“Viaggio Nel Crepuscolo,” Augusto Contento
“Republic of Silence,” Diana el Jeiroudi
“Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song,” Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine
“Deandre#Deandre Storia Di Un Impiegato,” Roberta Lena
“Django and Django,” Luca Rea
“Ezio Bosso. Le Cose Che Restano,” Giorgio Verdelli
Out of Competition (Special Screenings)
“Le 7 Giornate di Bergamo,” Simona Ventura
“Il Cinema Al Tempo del Covid,” Andrea Segre
Out of Competition (Short Films)
“Plastic Semiotic,” Radu Jude
“The Night,” Tsai Ming-Liang
“Sad Film,” Vasili (Pseudonym)
Horizons/Orizzonti
“Les Promesses,” Thomas Kruithof
“Atlantide,” Yuri Ancarani
“Miracle,” Bogdan George Apetri
“Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa
“Il Paradiso Del Pavone,” Laura Bispuri
“The Falls,” Chung Mong-Hong
“El Hoyo en la Cerca,” Joaquin Del Paso
“Amira,” Mohamed Diab
“A Plein Temps,” Eric Gravel
“107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes
“Vera Dreams of the Sea,” Kaltrina Krasniqi
“White Building,” Kavich Neang
“Anatomy of Time,” Jakrawal Nilthamrong
“El Otro Tom,” Rodrigo Pla and Laura Santullo
“El Gran Movimiento,” Kiro Russo
“Once Upon a Time in Calcutta,” Aditya Vikram Sengupta
“Rhino,” Oleg Sentsov
“True Things,” Harry Wootliff
“Inu-Oh,” Yuasa Masaaki
Horizons/Orizzonti Extra
“Land of Dreams,” Sherin Neshat and Shoja Azari
“Costa Brava,” Mounia Akl
“Mama, I’m Home,” Vladimir Bitokov
“Ma Nuit,” Antoinette Boulat
“La Ragazza Ha Volato,” Wilma Labate
“7 Prisoners,” Alexandre Moratto
“The Blind Man Who Did Not Want to See Titanic,” Teemu Nikki
“La Macchina Delle Immagini di Alfredo C.,” Roland Sejko
Source: IndieWire
