FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay | Awards Insights
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FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay

Oscar Shortlists for 9 Categories Released

FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay


2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG

2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – GG

2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

So, essentially, the winner in this category is the film that wins the most precursors unless a film that won at least one precursor wins Best Picture. Therefore, Promising Young Woman will win Original Screenplay unless The Trial of the Chicago 7 somehow pulls off a Best Picture win. And if two films are tied (Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri both had two precursors each in 2018), the film that won’t win anywhere else will win.


Promising Young Woman – CCA, WGA, BAFTA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG


Judas and the Black Messiah

Sound of Metal

Pick: Promising Young Woman


2020 – Jojo Rabbit – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – BlacKKKlansman – BAFTA

2018 – Call Me By Your Name – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

2017 – Moonlight – WGA (Original), USC

2016 – The Big Short – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC

2015 – The Imitation Game – WGA, USC

The same rules I laid out for Original Screenplay apply here as well. It will be the film that has won the most precursors unless its competitor wins Best Picture and if two or more films are tied it will be the one that won’t win anywhere else. This year, Nomadland, the Best Picture frontrunner, has the most precursors with two (CCA, USC) and The Father has 1 (BAFTA). So going by my rules Nomadland should win this but I can’t shake the feeling that the people who saw The Father really liked it (it has an 8.3 IMDb rating right now) and since the film probably won’t win anywhere else (Hopkins has chance in Best Actor but it’s extremely slim), maybe they’ll want to push it here. It’s also true that Nomadland does not seem like a Screenplay film and more like a Director film and doesn’t seem to be in the same caliber of film that generates the kind of love that wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay (Parasite, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave have recently accomplished this feat). Anyway, if Nomadland loses Picture it will definitely lose here but it does not need a win here to win Picture. So I am going to go with The Father because I believe that The Father is that late-breaking film that surprises and I’ve seen so much love for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the last couple of weeks. I was previously thinking that maybe all the love for the film is reserved solely for Hopkins’ performance but its 8.3 IMDb score says otherwise. All of this might just be smoke and mirrors but I do think the love for the film will get it a win here and I feel safe saying that since Nomadland does not need a win here to win Picture.


The Father – BAFTA

Nomadland – CCA, USC

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger

Pick: The Father