23 Apr FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Original and Adapted Screenplay
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA
2019 – Green Book – GG
2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA
2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA
2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA
2015 – Birdman – GG
2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA
2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA
2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA
So, essentially, the winner in this category is the film that wins the most precursors unless a film that won at least one precursor wins Best Picture. Therefore, Promising Young Woman will win Original Screenplay unless The Trial of the Chicago 7 somehow pulls off a Best Picture win. And if two films are tied (Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri both had two precursors each in 2018), the film that won’t win anywhere else will win.
Nominees:
Promising Young Woman – CCA, WGA, BAFTA
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG
Minari
Judas and the Black Messiah
Sound of Metal
Pick: Promising Young Woman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
2020 – Jojo Rabbit – BAFTA, WGA
2019 – BlacKKKlansman – BAFTA
2018 – Call Me By Your Name – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC
2017 – Moonlight – WGA (Original), USC
2016 – The Big Short – BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC
2015 – The Imitation Game – WGA, USC
The same rules I laid out for Original Screenplay apply here as well. It will be the film that has won the most precursors unless its competitor wins Best Picture and if two or more films are tied it will be the one that won’t win anywhere else. This year, Nomadland, the Best Picture frontrunner, has the most precursors with two (CCA, USC) and The Father has 1 (BAFTA). So going by my rules Nomadland should win this but I can’t shake the feeling that the people who saw The Father really liked it (it has an 8.3 IMDb rating right now) and since the film probably won’t win anywhere else (Hopkins has chance in Best Actor but it’s extremely slim), maybe they’ll want to push it here. It’s also true that Nomadland does not seem like a Screenplay film and more like a Director film and doesn’t seem to be in the same caliber of film that generates the kind of love that wins Picture, Director, and Screenplay (Parasite, Birdman, and 12 Years a Slave have recently accomplished this feat). Anyway, if Nomadland loses Picture it will definitely lose here but it does not need a win here to win Picture. So I am going to go with The Father because I believe that The Father is that late-breaking film that surprises and I’ve seen so much love for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the last couple of weeks. I was previously thinking that maybe all the love for the film is reserved solely for Hopkins’ performance but its 8.3 IMDb score says otherwise. All of this might just be smoke and mirrors but I do think the love for the film will get it a win here and I feel safe saying that since Nomadland does not need a win here to win Picture.
Nominees:
The Father – BAFTA
Nomadland – CCA, USC
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Pick: The Father