Awards Insights

Tag: 2021

  • Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

    Final 2023 Oscar Nomination Predictions: Live Action Short, Documentary Short, and Animated Short

    There are some topics that the Academy highlights in these categories consistently but other than that, predictions in these categories are essentially throwing darts at a map.

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    Le Pupille

    An Irish Goodbye

    The Red Suitcase

    Warsha

    Nakam

    Could Jump In: Almost Home, The Lone Wolf

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    The Flagmakers

    The Elephant Whisperers

    How Do You Measure a Year?

    38 at the Garden

    Nuisance Bear

    Could Jump In: Holding Moses, How Far Can They Run

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

    New Moon

    Save Ralph

    The Flying Sailor

    My Year of Dicks

    Could Jump In: Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It

  • Retrospective – It’s a Wonderful Life: One of the Saddest Christmas Films Ever Made

    Retrospective – It’s a Wonderful Life: One of the Saddest Christmas Films Ever Made

    It’s the holiday season. Tis’ the time to spend with our families, watching movies to brighten our lives with joy and cheer. Frank Capra’s It’s a Wonderful Life has cemented its place as a popular pick during this time-honored tradition of Christmas-time movie watching. My family and many others watch the film every year on Christmas Day and as the film reaches its 75th anniversary, let’s take a look at what makes this film so special.

    Uplifting. That’s a word that’s commonly associated with Capra’s film (and many more of his films). It was ranked at the top of AFI’s 100 Cheers List, making it their pick for the most inspiring film of all time. I agree. You won’t find a more life-affirming film but to uplift its audience as much as it does the film first has to also bring them down.

    It’s a Wonderful Life is easily one of the saddest Christmas films ever made. It actually underperformed at the box office on release, which was likely due to it dealing heavily with the Great Depression and American hardship. It found its audience on television when it entered the public domain and became the Christmas staple that we know it as today.

    The film introduces us to its protagonist George Bailey as a kid with dreams of traveling the world, whether it’s to Europe or Tahiti. As he grows into Jimmy Stewart, those dreams are still intact though not for long. For George Bailey, no good deed goes unpunished. On the day before his long-awaited trip to Europe, his father (Samuel S. Hinds) has a fatal stroke, and his colleagues at the Building and Loan want George to run his father’s business. George is forced to postpone his dream in order to save the Building and Loan, the one organization in Bedford Falls that truly provides for the community. 

    Then when George plans to go to college he is once again forced to stay in Bedford Falls as the Building and Loan will be liquidated by the cruel and greedy Mr. Potter (Lionel Barrymore) if George were to leave. In a fiery speech, George defends the Building and Loan as the only organization keeping the people of Bedford Falls out of “Potter’s slums”. 

    George gives the money he was saving up to go to college to his brother Harry (Todd Karns) with the idea that when Harry finishes up his education he’ll come back to Bedford Falls and take the Building and Loan off of George’s hands. However, of course, that plan doesn’t pan out. When Harry returns to Bedford Falls he’s married and his wife Ruth’s father has offered Harry a job in research with a lot of potential. George, again out of his essential goodness, won’t let Harry turn down such an opportunity and is again stuck in Bedford Falls.  

    This cycle of hope and disappointment seems to be a permanent one for George. When he, newly-married, plans to finally see the world outside of Bedford Falls with his wife Mary (Donna Reed) for their honeymoon, he is once again foiled as he uses the $2000 he and Mary had saved to deal with his customers’ panic during a bank crisis. 

    Still, Capra doesn’t just subject the audience to scene after scene of George’s crushed dreams, he gives his protagonist small moments of happiness along the way to keep the audience hopeful that there is a brighter future ahead. The honeymoon scene with Mary in the old Granville house and the Building and Loan employees’ celebration after they keep the business alive during the bank crisis are just two examples of these moments of pure joy. 

    As George’s dreams move further and further away from becoming a reality, the lives of his friends and family are looking bright. His brother Harry wins the Congressional Medal of Honor due to his heroic actions as a pilot in World War II and his friend Sam Wainwright (Frank Albertson) struck it rich in the plastics business. Both of these were successes that George could’ve had if it wasn’t for his ear (George became deaf in one ear from saving Harry from drowning in a freezing lake) or his relationship with Mary (which he chose over investing in the plastics business with Sam). 

    From one perspective, it could seem like George is the unluckiest man alive and that’s the perspective that George starts to adopt as he gets close to the brink of suicide. To save him, George’s guardian angel Clarence (Henry Travers) comes down to Earth to show George how life would be in Bedford Falls if George didn’t exist. And in this world, Bedford Falls has become Potterville, a seedy town full of crime and nastiness. Of course, we as the audience already could see the impact that George had on his community. His kindness benefitted almost everybody that came into contact with him and as George’s guardian angel Clarence writes in a copy of the Adventures of Tom Sawyer: “no man is a failure who has friends”.

    ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ (RKO Radio)

    That’s the balance the film nails. Contrasting the unfortunate circumstances of George’s existence with the joys of life. Capra is not afraid to dig deep into George’s feelings of desperation and hopelessness. Jimmy Stewart really shines in these scenes as well and it’s hard to watch this dreamer so dejected. But because Capra and Stewart allow the audience to feel George’s desperation so powerfully by letting us walk with George every step of the way, we feel the final scene of pure unadulterated joy so impactfully. It’s a scene that truly can be called life-affirming but that’s only because we’ve been given a portrait of a real life, with both the good and the bad, the joy and the sorrow. Without the darkness that the filmmakers bring us to, the light wouldn’t be as bright and the film wouldn’t be the timeless masterpiece that it undoubtedly is.

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    At this point, I believe that we can already limit the films that have a chance of winning Best Picture to a film with an 86+ Metascore or Belfast. So among the 21 films listed below, which are the only films I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination at this point, only The Power of the Dog (88), Licorice Pizza (94), The Lost Daughter (88), The Tragedy of Macbeth (89), Parallel Mothers (86), Flee (88) have an 86+ Metascore. And to further shrink the pool, the only films that seem like they can win Best Picture at this point are The Power of the Dog, Licorice Pizza, and Belfast.

    The reviews for Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza came out and its received more acclaim than almost any other movie this year so far. It won best film at NBR and won Best Screenplay at NYFCC. However, I think it will end up like Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: a critics’ favorite from one of the most respected directors working today that transports its audience to a bygone era of Hollywood’s history. However, I think, like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, some will think Anderson’s film overlong and slightly problematic (with the age-gap and a scene with a racist Japanese restaurant owner). However, with the acclaim its getting, it’s indisputably in the conversation and I really hope the overdue Anderson gets his first (HOW?!) Oscar.

    West Side Story is also getting fantastic reviews and I’m happy that I trusted Spielberg and kept the film in my line-up throughout the year. It’s a remake of one of the most acclaimed musicals ever put on screen and with Spielberg at the helm the film really leans into that Old Hollywood feel. It’s the kind of film that the old guard of the Academy would love and with the social commentary present, it’s one that the newer generation will probably get behind as well.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    CODA (Apple+)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    tick, tick…BOOM! (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+), The Lost Daughter (Netflix), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Spencer (NEON), Being the Ricardos (Amazon), House of Gucci (MGM), Cyrano (MGM), C’mon C’mon (A24), Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics), The Last Duel (20th Century), Passing (Netflix), Flee (NEON), Drive My Car (Janus), No Time to Die (United Artists)

    Campion, Spielberg, PTA, and Villeneuve are all essentially locked here. The question is who will take the fifth spot? I had Del Toro but with the good not great reviews for Nightmare Alley, I’m less sure of its chances across the board. So for me that leaves Coen and Branagh. The director branch is very favorable of auteurs so I think Branagh’s film is one that will be a top 5 contender in Picture but won’t get in Director. Coen’s work in ‘Macbeth’ could be rewarded but unless the film sees a slight surge in attention it will drop out of my Picture predictions and here as well. And then there are the auteurs like Hamaguchi, Larrain, Farhadi, and Almodovar. With the acclaim that these directors have, I definitely could see one of them taking that fifth slot, though BAFTA will likely make that much clearer.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter

    Benedict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington all received nominations from both groups. I think Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington will all get nominated for their work but Dinklage in Cyrano doesn’t really seem like something that the Oscar will take to and I think Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos or Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up (both received Golden Globe nods) are more likely nominees. This seems to be between Cumberbatch and Smith for the top prize and unless something drastic occurs, Cumberbatch has both the visibility (he has a major role in what will be this year’s biggest box-office hit: Spider-Man: No Way Home) and the plaudits from the critics’ groups to take the win.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…Boom

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Nicolas Cage – Pig, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Simon Rex – Red Rocket

    In the last four years years, all five eventual Oscar Best Actress nominees were chosen at Critics Choice. This year’s nominees are Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. All of these women received a Golden Globes nomination as well and four or five of them will be nominated for an Oscar this year. SAG will help us narrow it down but right now the top 5 is definitely Stewart, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, and Chastain. Chastain’s film has probably been forgotten by now and she might not have enough steam to get a nomination in February, and in the event of that happening someone from a stronger Best Picture contender like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim can take her spot.

    In terms of the win, Stewart is the frontrunner at the critics’ awards right now. Her biggest competition at the Oscars seems to be Kidman at the moment, yet Kidman still hasn’t won one critics’ award. She still has a lot of time and if she racks up a handful I think she can win this but if not, Stewart has this in the bag.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Emilia Jones – CODA.

    Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Troy Kotsur, and Kodi Smit-McPhee all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes. I think all four of these men will make it to the Oscars with the inclusion of either Licorice Pizza’s Bradley Cooper or The Power of the Dog’s Jesse Plemons as the fifth pick.

    Of the categories I have discussed so far, this one seems the most up-in-the-air when it comes to who I think will win. At the critics’ awards, Smit-McPhee is the clear frontrunner though I do think he might not be well-established enough and his work might be too subtle for the Academy’s tastes (I personally believe his performance was fantastic). I think Ciaran Hinds’ work in Belfast fits the more traditional winner in this category and he is my current pick to win though Troy Kotsur is definitely a dark horse.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Troy Kotsur – CODA

    Jamie Dornan – Belfast

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar, Richard Jenkins – The Humans, Mike Faist – West Side Story, Jon Bernthal – King Richard

    Caitrona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes and I think all of them will be nominated at the Oscars. The question is who will be that last slot? I think it’s between Ruth Negga for Passing and Rita Moreno for West Side Story. I think if Negga continue to pick up critics’ awards she might drum up enough visibility for her to get the nomination but if West Side Story overperforms on nomination morning, Moreno is coming with it.

    For me, the contenders for the win are DeBose, Dunst, and Balfe. I think I’m leaning towards DeBose at it seems like she has a lot of momentum at this point in the race.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Could Jump In: Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Ann Dowd – Mass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Judi Dench – Belfast, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Being the Ricardos all hit both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes yet I think Being the Ricardos will miss at the Oscars. This has already happened twice for Sorkin as he was nominated at both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes for both Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs (He actually won at the Globes for this) yet ended up failing to be nominated at the Oscars.

    For those last two slots, I think its going to come down to King Richard, C’mon C’mon, or The French Dispatch. I think King Richard will get in on account of it being a Best Picture nominee but the last slot is more tricky. Everybody loves Wes Anderson so this may be the place where they might give him a nod here but C’mon C’mon is a movie that seems to be well-liked by everybody and it may become a surprise nominee here. It’s not something that Mike Mills is new to as his last film 20th Century Women also received its only Oscar nomination in Original Screenplay.

    For the win, this is between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. I think Paul Thomas Anderson (deservedly) has a very strong overdue narrative here and Licorice Pizza is his biggest Oscar contender since There Will Be Blood so there’s a very strong case for him winning. But watch out for Belfast because if it ends up being the Best Picture winner it will essentially have to win here as well.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Mass, Parallel Mothers, The Worst Person in the World, A Hero, Red Rocket

    The Power of the Dog is the only film that hit both awards bodies and is pretty much locked for a win in this category. The Lost Daughter, CODA, West Side Story, and Drive My Car are my picks for the last four slots though something like Dune, Nightmare Alley, or tick, tick…BOOM! could also be nominated. We’ll have to wait for BAFTA, WGA, and USC Scripter to make more informed conclusions about what will be nominated.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    CODA

    West Side Story

    Drive My Car

    Could Jump In: Passing,

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, The Summit of the Gods, Sing 2,

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: Cruella, Belfast, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    King Richard

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, No Time to Die, Licorice Pizza, tick, tick, Boom!, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Licorice Pizza, C’mon C’mon

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Cruella

    Dune

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, West Side Story, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    No Time to Die

    tick, tick…BOOM!

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: The Power of the Dog, A Quiet Place: Part II, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Eternals

    Godzilla vs. Kong

    Could Jump In: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Ghostbusters: Afterlife. Free Guy, No Time to Die, Black Widow

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    The Power of the Dog

    Spencer

    The French Dispatch

    Parallel Mothers

    Could Jump In: Don’t Look Up, Encanto, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die, Being the Ricardos

    Though Van Morrison’s been especially controversial lately, he’s also a much-revered artist and Academy members not in the know about his anti-lockdown rhetoric may just know “Astral Weeks” and “Moondance” and vote for him here. There’s no way he’s winning but he may just sneak in for a nomination.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    King Richard

    Encanto

    Don’t Look Up

    Belfast

    Could Jump In: CODA, Respect, The Harder They Fall, Annette, Bruised

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Drive My Car

    A Hero

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, I’m Your Man, Lamb, The Good Boss, The Falls

    The Academy is not very supportive of documentaries based on archival footage and therefore I’m predicting Summer of Soul, the frontrunner in this category, to get snubbed.

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Flee

    The Rescue

    Ascension

    Julia

    The First Wave

    Could Jump In: Summer of Soul, In the Same Breath, Procession, Attica, Writing With Fire

  • Oscar Shortlists Announced in 10 Categories

    Oscar Shortlists Announced in 10 Categories

    The Academy announced its shortlists for 10 categories (Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, International Feature Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Music (Original Score), Music (Original Song), Animated Short Film, Live Action Short Film, Sound and Visual Effects).

    Outside of France’s Titane missing in International Feature, there weren’t many major snubs, though Julia Ducournau’s chances at a Director nod are essentially zero after the film’s exclusion.

    Here are the shortlists:

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    “Ascension”“Attica”“Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry”“Faya Dayi”“The First Wave”“Flee”“In the Same Breath”“Julia”“President”“Procession”“The Rescue”“Simple as Water”“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”“The Velvet Underground”“Writing with Fire”

    DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

    “Águilas”“Audible”“A Broken House”“Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis”“Coded: The Hidden Love of J. C. Leyendecker”“Day of Rage”“The Facility”“Lead Me Home”“Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day””“The Queen of Basketball”“Sophie & the Baron”“Takeover”“Terror Contagion”“Three Songs for Benazir”“When We Were Bullies”

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Austria, “Great Freedom”Belgium, “Playground”Bhutan, “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”Denmark, “Flee”Finland, “Compartment No. 6”Germany, “I’m Your Man”Iceland, “Lamb”Iran, “A Hero”Italy, “The Hand of God”Japan, “Drive My Car”Kosovo, “Hive”Mexico, “Prayers for the Stolen”Norway, “The Worst Person in the World”Panama, “Plaza Catedral”Spain, “The Good Boss”

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

    “Coming 2 America”“Cruella”“Cyrano”“Dune”“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”“House of Gucci”“Nightmare Alley”“No Time to Die”“The Suicide Squad”“West Side Story”

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

    “Being the Ricardos”“Candyman”“Don’t Look Up”“Dune”“Encanto”“The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun”“The Green Knight”“The Harder They Fall”“King Richard”“The Last Duel”“No Time to Die”“Parallel Mothers”“The Power of the Dog”“Spencer”“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

    “So May We Start?” from “Annette”“Down To Joy” from “Belfast”“Right Where I Belong” from “Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road”“Automatic Woman” from “Bruised”“Dream Girl” from “Cinderella”“Beyond The Shore” from “CODA”“The Anonymous Ones” from “Dear Evan Hansen”“Just Look Up” from “Don’t Look Up”“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”“Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days”“Guns Go Bang” from “The Harder They Fall”“Be Alive” from “King Richard”“No Time To Die” from “No Time to Die”“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect”“Your Song Saved My Life” from “Sing 2”

    ANIMATED SHORT FILM

    “Affairs of the Art”“Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice”“Bad Seeds”“Bestia”“Boxballet”“Flowing Home”“Mum Is Pouring Rain”“The Musician”“Namoo”“Only a Child”“Robin Robin”“Souvenir Souvenir”“Step into the River”“Us Again”“The Windshield Wiper”

    LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

    “Ala Kachuu – Take and Run”“Censor of Dreams”“The Criminals”“Distances”“The Dress”“Frimas”“Les Grandes Claques”“The Long Goodbye”“On My Mind”“Please Hold”“Stenofonen”“Tala’vision”“Under the Heavens”“When the Sun Sets”“You’re Dead Helen”

    SOUND

    “Belfast”“Dune”“Last Night in Soho”“The Matrix Resurrections”“No Time to Die”“The Power of the Dog”“A Quiet Place Part II”“Spider-Man: No Way Home”“tick, tick…BOOM!”“West Side Story”

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    “Black Widow”“Dune”“Eternals”“Free Guy”“Ghostbusters: Afterlife”“Godzilla vs. Kong”“The Matrix Resurrections”“No Time to Die”“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

    Source: The Hollywood Reporter

  • Post-Nominations Analysis: Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes

    Post-Nominations Analysis: Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes

    Now that the BFCA and the HFPA have announced the nominations for their respective awards, there are multiple races that become increasingly clear.

    BEST PICTURE

    As I said in the post announcing the Critics’ Choice nominations, “there are now 12 films that I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination as they hit at least one of AFI, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice: Belfast, CODA, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story.”

    Of those 12 films, there is no way Cyrano is getting a Best Picture nomination so that’s out. The slot for the last exclusion, I think, is between tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, and CODA. Who I choose as for the 11th slot will likely fluctuate as the season goes on. Right now I have The Tragedy of Macbeth missing. Even though its stars two of the most beloved actors working today in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and has an 89 Metascore, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for it. It isn’t showing up on too many best of 2021 critics lists and isn’t getting too many best picture nominations at critics’ awards either. If it starts picking up more steam once it has a proper release around Christmas I’ll slot it in, but right now I’m going to keep it out.

    In terms of what can win Best Picture, a stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. This year, two films fit that criteria: The Power of the Dog and Belfast. My pick to win is currently The Power of the Dog especially since only one film in the preferential era (Green Book) won Best Picture with a Metascore less than 86. Belfast has a 77 and The Power of the Dog is at an 88.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Kenneth Branagh, Jane Campion, Steven Spielberg, and Denis Villeneuve all made it into both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, yet to me, only the last three directors are locked for an Oscar nod. In the last four years, six directors, Regina King, Aaron Sorkin, Peter Farrelly, Bradley Cooper, Martin McDonagh, and Steven Spielberg, all missed Director nods at the Oscars after hitting both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. I think Kenneth Branagh and Belfast would fit pretty well into this group. Paul Thomas Anderson will probably take the 4th slot and I’m going to be watching for BAFTA to see who’ll take the last slot but it could be Hamaguchi, Larrain, Ducournau, or someone completely different. Also, I think Campion is most definitely the frontrunner to win this.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch, Peter Dinklage, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Denzel Washington all received nominations from both groups. I think Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith, and Washington will all get nominated for their work but Dinklage in Cyrano doesn’t really seem like something that the Oscar will take to and I think Javier Bardem in Being the Ricardos or Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up (both received Golden Globe nods) are more likely nominees. This seems to be between Cumberbatch and Smith for the top prize and unless something drastic occurs, Cumberbatch has both the visibility (he has a major role in what will be this year’s biggest box-office hit: Spider-Man: No Way Home) and the plaudits from the critics’ groups to take the win.

    BEST ACTRESS

    In the last four years years, all five eventual Oscar Best Actress nominees were chosen at Critics Choice. This year’s nominees are Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, Alana Haim, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. All of these women received a Golden Globes nomination as well and four or five of them will be nominated for an Oscar this year. SAG will help us narrow it down but right now the top 5 is definitely Stewart, Colman, Kidman, Gaga, and Chastain. Chastain’s film has probably been forgotten by now and she might not have enough steam to get a nomination in February, and in the event of that happening someone from a stronger Best Picture contender like Rachel Zegler or Alana Haim can take her spot.

    In terms of the win, Stewart is the frontrunner at the critics’ awards right now. Her biggest competition at the Oscars seems to be Kidman at the moment, yet Kidman still hasn’t won one critics’ award. She still has a lot of time and if she racks up a handful I think she can win this but if not, Stewart has this in the bag.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds, Troy Kotsur, and Kodi Smit-McPhee all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes. I think all four of these men will make it to the Oscars with the inclusion of either Licorice Pizza’s Bradley Cooper or The Power of the Dog’s Jesse Plemons as the fifth pick.

    Of the categories I have discussed so far, this one seems the most up-in-the-air when it comes to who I think will win. At the critics’ awards, Smit-McPhee is the clear frontrunner though I do think he might not be well-established enough and his work might be too subtle for the Academy’s tastes (I personally believe his performance was fantastic, by the way). I think Ciaran Hinds’ work in Belfast fits the more traditional winner in this category and he is my current pick to win though Troy Kotsur is definitely a dark horse.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Caitrona Balfe, Ariana DeBose, Kirsten Dunst, and Aunjanue Ellis all made both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes and I think all of them will be nominated at the Oscars. The question is who will be that last slot? I think it’s between Ruth Negga for Passing and Rita Moreno for West Side Story. I think if Negga continue to pick up critics’ awards she might drum up enough visibility for her to get the nomination but if West Side Story overperforms on nomination morning, Moreno is coming with it.

    For me, the contenders for the win are DeBose, Dunst, and Balfe. I think I’m leaning towards DeBose at it seems like she has a lot of momentum at this point in the race.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, and Being the Ricardos all hit both Critics Choice and the Golden Globes yet I think Being the Ricardos will miss at the Oscars. This has already happened twice for Sorkin as he was nominated at both Critics’ Choice and the Golden Globes for both Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs (He actually won at the Globes for this) yet ended up failing to be nominated at the Oscars.

    For those last two slots, I think its going to come down to King Richard, C’mon C’mon, or The French Dispatch. I think King Richard will get in on account of it being a Best Picture nominee but the last slot is more tricky. Everybody loves Wes Anderson so this may be the place where they might give him a nod here but C’mon C’mon is a movie that seems to be well-liked by everybody and it may become a surprise nominee here. It’s not something that Mike Mills is new to as his last film 20th Century Women also received its only Oscar nomination in Original Screenplay.

    For the win, this is between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. I think Paul Thomas Anderson (deservedly) has a very strong overdue narrative here and Licorice Pizza is his biggest Oscar contender since There Will Be Blood so there’s a very strong case for him winning. But watch out for Belfast because if it ends up being the Best Picture winner it will essentially have to win here as well.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog is the only film that hit both awards bodies and is pretty much locked for a win in this category. The Lost Daughter, CODA, West Side Story, and Drive My Car are my picks for the last four slots though something like Dune, Nightmare Alley, or tick, tick…BOOM! could also be nominated. We’ll have to wait for BAFTA, WGA, and USC Scripter to make more informed conclusions about what will be nominated.

     

  • Critics Choice Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘Belfast’, ‘West Side Story’, ‘Licorice Pizza’, and ‘Dune’ Cement Themselves as the Top 5 BP Contenders

    Critics Choice Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’, ‘Belfast’, ‘West Side Story’, ‘Licorice Pizza’, and ‘Dune’ Cement Themselves as the Top 5 BP Contenders

    Now that the Critics’ Choice nominations have been released, the Oscar race in all categories is looking much clearer. Though I will have a more in-depth analysis of these nominations in another post, I want to mention that there are now 12 films that I think have a chance at a Best Picture nomination as they hit at least one of AFI, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice: Belfast, CODA, Cyrano, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick…Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story.

    Anyway, here are the nominees:

    Best Picture

    Belfast
    CODA
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    King Richard
    Licorice Pizza
    Nightmare Alley
    The Power of the Dog
    tick, tick…Boom!
    West Side Story

    Best Actor

    Nicolas Cage, Pig
    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
    Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
    Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…Boom!
    Will Smith, King Richard
    Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Actress

    Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
    Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
    Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
    Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
    Kristen Stewart, Spencer

    Best Supporting Actor

    Jamie Dornan, Belfast
    Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
    Troy Kotsur, CODA
    Jared Leto, House of Gucci
    J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
    Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

    Best Supporting Actress

    Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
    Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
    Ann Dowd, Mass
    Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
    Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
    Rita Moreno, West Side Story

    Best Young Actor/Actress

    Jude Hill, Belfast
    Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
    Emilia Jones, CODA
    Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon
    Saniyya Sidney, King Richard
    Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

    Best Acting Ensemble

    Belfast
    Don’t Look Up
    The Harder They Fall
    Licorice Pizza
    The Power of the Dog
    West Side Story

    Best Director

    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
    Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
    Denis Villeneuve, Dune

    Best Original Screenplay

    Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
    Zach Baylin, King Richard
    Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
    Adam McKay, David Sirota, Don’t Look Up
    Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
    Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
    Siân Heder, CODA
    Tony Kushner, West Side Story
    Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, Eric Roth, Dune

    Best Cinematography

    Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth
    Greig Fraser, Dune
    Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story
    Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley
    Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
    Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast

    Best Production Design

    Jim Clay, Claire Nia Richards, Belfast
    Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley
    Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch
    Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story
    Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

    Best Film Editing

    Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story
    Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast
    Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza
    Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog
    Joe Walker, Dune

    Best Costume Design

    Jenny Beavan – Cruella
    Luis Sequeira – Nightmare Alley
    Paul Tazewell – West Side Story
    Jacqueline West, Robert Morgan – Dune
    Janty Yates – House of Gucci

    Best Hair and Makeup

    Cruella
    Dune
    The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    House of Gucci
    Nightmare Alley

    Best Visual Effects

    Dune
    The Matrix Resurrections
    Nightmare Alley
    No Time to Die
    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Best Comedy

    Barb & Star Go to Vista Del Mar
    Don’t Look Up
    Free Guy
    The French Dispatch
    Licorice Pizza

    Best Animated Feature

    Encanto
    Flee
    Luca
    The Mitchells vs the Machines
    Raya and the Last Dragon

    Best Foreign Language Film

    A Hero
    Drive My Car
    Flee
    The Hand of God
    The Worst Person in the World

    Best Song

    “Be Alive,” King Richard
    “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
    “Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall
    “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up
    “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

    Best Score

    Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up
    Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
    Jonny Greenwood, Spencer
    Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley
    Hans Zimmer, Dune

    Source: Yahoo!

  • Golden Globes Reveal Their Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Belfast’ Lead With 7 Each

    Golden Globes Reveal Their Nominations: ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Belfast’ Lead With 7 Each

    Though they won’t be televised this season, the Golden Globes released their nominations this morning and there are some interesting inclusions and exclusions. A stat that I want to mention is that no Best Picture winner in at least the last 10 years has won the award without being at least nominated for a Picture award, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. This year, two films fit that criteria: The Power of the Dog and Belfast. Both CODA and The Lost Daughter seem to benefit from today’s nominations as they both received two nods a piece.

    Best Motion Picture, Drama

    “Belfast”

    “CODA”

    “Dune”

    “King Richard”

    “The Power of the Dog”

    Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

    “Cyrano”

    “Don’t Look Up”

    “Licorice Pizza”

    “Tick, Tick … Boom!”

    “West Side Story”

    Best Director, Motion Picture

    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”

    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”

    Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”

    Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”

    Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

    Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

    Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”

    Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”

    Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”

    Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

    Marion Cotillard, “Annette”

    Alana Haim, “Licorice Pizza”

    Jennifer Lawrence, “Don’t Look Up”

    Emma Stone, “Cruella”

    Rachel Zegler, “West Side Story”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

    Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast”

    Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”

    Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”

    Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”

    Ruth Negga, “Passing”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

    Mahershala Ali, “Swan Song”

    Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”

    Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”

    Will Smith, “King Richard”

    Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

    Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up”

    Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano”

    Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”

    Cooper Hoffman, “Licorice Pizza”

    Anthony Ramos, “In the Heights”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

    Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar”

    Jamie Dornan, “Belfast”

    Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”

    Troy Kotsur, “CODA”

    Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”

    Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

    Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”

    Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”

    Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”

    Adam McKay, “Don’t Look Up

    Aaron Sorkin, “Being the Ricardos

    Best Original Score, Motion Picture

    Alexandre Desplat, “The French Dispatch”

    Germaine Franco, “Encanto”

    Jonny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog”

    Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers”

    Hans Zimmer, “Dune”

    Best Original Song, Motion Picture

    “Be Alive,” “King Richard”

    “Dos Oruguitas,” “Encanto”

    “Down to Joy,” “Belfast”

    “Here I Am [Singing My Way Home],” “Respect”

    “No Time to Die,” “No Time to Die”

    Best Motion Picture, Animated

    “Encanto”

    “Flee”

    “Luca”

    “My Sunny Maad”

    “Raya and the Last Dragon”

    Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language

    “Compartment No. 6”

    “Drive My Car”

    “The Hand of God”

    “A Hero”

    “Parallel Mothers”

    Source: New York Times

  • AFI Top 10 is Released: The Best Picture Lineup Begins to Take Shape

    AFI Top 10 is Released: The Best Picture Lineup Begins to Take Shape

    Considering how early, the AFI awards occur in the season, their picks are ridiculously predictive. I personally think 7-8 films from the lineup below will be nominated (the misses being CODA and Tick, Tick…Boom).

    Anyway, here are their picks.

    AFI Movies of the Year

    • “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
    • “Don’t Look Up” (Netflix)
    • “Dune” (Warner Bros.)
    • “King Richard” (Warner Bros.)
    • “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    • “Nightmare Alley” (Searchlight Pictures)
    • “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
    • “Tick, Tick … Boom!” (Netflix)
    • “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (Apple Original Films/A24)
    • “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios)

    AFI Television Programs of the Year

    • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
    • “Maid” (Netflix)
    • “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)
    • “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
    • “Schmigadoon!” (Apple TV Plus)
    • “Succession” (HBO)
    • “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)
    • “The Underground Railroad” (Prime Video)
    • “WandaVision” (Disney Plus)
    • “The White Lotus” (HBO)

    AFI Special Award

    • “Belfast” (Focus Features)
    • “Squid Game” (Netflix)
    • “Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (Searchlight Pictures)

    The AFI Awards will take place on Jan. 7 in Los Angeles.

    In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.

    • 2021 – 6 of the 8 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Promising Young Woman and The Father)
    • 2020 – 8 of 9 (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
    • 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
    • 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
    • 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
    • 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)

    (Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)

    Here’s every film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.

    • The Father – Nominated at BAFTA and at the Golden Globes
    • Promising Young Woman – Nominated for Best Picture at Critics Choice. Also nominated by the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the National Board of Review.
    • Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
    • Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
    • Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
    • Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
    • Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
    • Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR
    • The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards
    • Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards

    So something like The Lost Daughter, which didn’t receive a NBR or AFI pick, will need a nod at at least one of these major awards bodies if it wants a chance at making it in to BP.

  • ‘Licorice Pizza’ Wins Big and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Misses at NBR

    ‘Licorice Pizza’ Wins Big and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Misses at NBR

    The first major precursor of the season just announced its picks. For years, the National Board of Review (NBR) awards have marked the beginning of Oscar season and they continued that with today’s announcement. One startling omission was Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, which many predicted to win here. It was not named as one of the top 10 films which is something that forces me to remove it from its place as the Best Picture favorite. It is absolutely still getting nominated, it just may not have the kind of support to get the haul I was predicting it to get. Licorice Pizza, on the other hand, gains in standing as its now both one of the most critically-acclaimed films of the year (90 Metascore) and has the first major precursor under its belt. Of course, it’s important to mention that none of the NBR’s Best Film winners in the last ten years except for Green Book ended up winning Picture, but Paul Thomas Anderson’s film gets a boost nonetheless.

    In the last 10 years an average of just over 5 films picked by the NBR went on to become Best Picture nominees. With the expanded field of 10 BP nominees this year I am predicting that around six of this year’s NBR picks will end up getting nominated for Best Picture.

    2011 — 4/9
    2012 — 7/9
    2013 — 5/9
    2014 — 4/8
    2015 — 5/8
    2016 — 7/9
    2017 — 6/9 (The Shape of Water was not picked by the NBR)
    2018 — 4/8
    2019 — 6/9 (Parasite won Best Foreign Language Film)
    2020 — 5/8

    Also, in the last 10 years every eventual Best Picture winner except for The Shape of Water in 2017 was a member of the NBR’s Top 10 Films, which makes it seem very likely that the eventual Best Picture winner from this year will one of the 10 films chosen by the NBR.

    Also, this is slightly irrelevant but I hope the Tragedy of Macbeth winning for Best Cinematography becomes a trend as the camerawork in that film (just from the trailer) epitomizes stunning.

    So without further ado, here are the picks from the NBR.

    Best Film: LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Actor: Will Smith, KING RICHARD

    Best Actress: Rachel Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY

    Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, BELFAST

    Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, KING RICHARD

    Best Original Screenplay: Asghar Farhadi, A HERO

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

    Breakthrough Performance: Alana Haim & Cooper Hoffman, LICORICE PIZZA

    Best Directorial Debut: Michael Sarnoski, PIG

    Best Animated Feature: ENCANTO

    Best Foreign Language Film: A HERO

    Best Documentary: SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)

    Best Ensemble: THE HARDER THEY FALL

    Outstanding Achievement in Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH

    NBR Freedom of Expression Award: FLEE

    Top Films (in alphabetical order)
    Belfast
    Don’t Look Up
    Dune
    King Richard
    The Last Duel
    Nightmare Alley
    Red Rocket
    The Tragedy of Macbeth
    West Side Story

    Top 5 Foreign Language Films (in alphabetical order)
    Benedetta
    Lamb
    Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
    Titane
    The Worst Person in the World

    Top 5 Documentaries (in alphabetical order)
    Ascension
    Attica
    Flee
    The Rescue
    Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain

    Top 10 Independent Films (in alphabetical order)
    The Card Counter
    C’mon C’mon
    CODA
    The Green Knight
    Holler
    Jockey
    Old Henry
    Pig
    Shiva Baby
    The Souvenir Part II

    Source: Yahoo

  • 2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late October Predictions

    The Power of the Dog and Belfast are still the top contenders after their festival runs and sit significantly higher on this list than the others. That will definitely change as time goes on but both of these films will likely continue to be top 4 Best Picture contenders throughout the season.

    Now for the rest of the pack. Even though Dune may not have the critical reception of something like Mad Max Fury Road or Gravity (both of these films had Metascores over 90 while Dune is currently sitting at a 74), there is palpable passion for the film (Guillermo del Toro, Chloe Zhao, and Christopher Nolan have all sung the film’s praises) and the return of the cerebral blockbuster seems to be something that most in the industry have warmly received. I am pretty confident of it getting into Picture (but I highly doubt it has a chance of winning) so it takes the third slot.

    Bradley Cooper’s 2021 late-breakers Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza take the next two positions and I think Cooper could possibly be double-nominated and maybe even win his first Oscar. Trailers recently dropped for both of these films and Licorice Pizza looks like a major diversion from Paul Thomas Anderson’s more recent work. It looks to be an Almost Famous-lite coming-of-age story that returns to PTA’s San Fernando Valley roots. That’s the kind of film that will likely be more accessible to the Academy than some of the auteur’s past work and if he pulls it off, which is likely for PTA, the 8-time Oscar nominee could possibly receive his first Oscar (Even though he could win for Picture it’s more likely that he wins it for Original Screenplay). Del Toro’s last film was the Best Picture winner The Shape of Water so Nightmare Alley with Cate Blanchett, Bradley Cooper, Rooney Mara, Toni Colette, and Willem Dafoe is highly anticipated. My concern with both Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza is that they really could have benefited from a festival run. I highly doubt that a film that didn’t premiere at any of the fall festivals will end up winning Picture as the eventual Picture winner usually premieres at a fall festival and then gradually builds momentum that ends up in the film receiving the most coveted golden statue. Even with the season being extended to March, I don’t see either Nightmare Alley or Licorice Pizza being able to win this but if they deliver, they will be nominated.

    I get more skeptical about Don’t Look Up as time goes on but the pedigree it boasts is just much too hard to resist. It’s hard to fathom that a movie with Leo, JLaw, and Meryl in significant roles will not get a Best Picture nomination. If it gets at least a 70 Metascore it’s in undoubtedly. My confidence in West Side Story is also waning but I still have a lot of trust in Spielberg’s popularity in the industry and if the movie is at least mostly positively-received it should probably be able to get into Picture.

    King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and The Lost Daughter round out the last three slots. All three made splashes at festivals and could probably ride those positive notices to BP noms. King Richard is poised to be the Ford v Ferrari of this season. A sports film that audiences might really love that features uniformally great performances from its cast. Both Will Smith and Aunjanue Ellis are likely to receive nods. The Tragedy of Macbeth is led by two of the most respected actors in the industry in Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand and with an 89 Metascore in tow I don’t see how the Academy can deny this film a BP nomination even if it’s not really their cup of tea. It’s probably the Mank or Phantom Thread of this year. Both of those films received nominations in Director so watch out for Joel Coen in that category as it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Director branch reward him for his auteur vision.

    The Gotham Awards released their nominations this month and of the films nominated for Best Feature, only Passing and The Lost Daughter look like they have a chance at above-the-line Oscar nominations. Both films are Netflix projects directed by actresses-turned-directors and are based on two highly acclaimed novels. In terms of receiving Oscar nominations, I’m going to give the edge to The Lost Daughter as I understand that it’s more accessible than Hall’s film and since I think it could be like The Father in that it’s a psychological thriller that audiences have a strong emotional response to.

    Anyway, here are my predictions for this month:

    BEST PICTURE

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Belfast (Focus)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    Licorice Pizza (MGM)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    The Lost Daughter (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, Spencer, The French Dispatch, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, Passing, Parallel Mothers, C’mon C’mon, CODA, tick, tick…Boom!

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Kenneth Branagh – Belfast

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza

    Could Jump In: Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Pablo Larrain – Spencer, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci/The Last Duel, Reinaldo Marcus Green – King Richard, Maggie Gylenhaal – The Lost Daughter, Julia Ducournau – Titane, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

    BEST ACTRESS

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

    Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    Could Jump In: Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

    Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

    Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar (This seems more like a Globes nomination than an Oscar one but I’m not confident about placing anyone else here)

    Could Jump In: Jamie Dornan – Belfast, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Jon Bernthal – King Richard, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Caitrona Balfe – Belfast

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Glenn Close – Swan Song

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Licorice Pizza

    Belfast

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, Mass, Spencer, A Hero, The Worst Person in the World

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    The Lost Daughter

    Nightmare Alley

    Passing

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, The Humans, tick, tick…Boom!, West Side Story

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Encanto

    Belle

    Could Jump In: Raya the Last Dragon, Sing 2, Ron’s Gone Wrong, The Summit of the Gods, Cryptozoo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Belfast, Being the Ricardos, The Power of the Dog, The Last Duel, Cyrano, Spencer, Last Night in Soho, Licorice Pizza

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (From the trailers alone, this or Spencer is what I want to win here, though both are not too likely. I love the German Expressionism chiaroscuro used here. It’s stunning)

    The Power of the Dog

    Belfast

    Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Spencer (this looks so beautiful, Claire Mathon is so underrated), The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano, C’mon C’mon, Passing, The Green Knight

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    Being the Ricardos

    Cruella

    Spencer

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Cyrano, House of Gucci, West Side Story

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Belfast

    The Power of the Dog

    Don’t Look Up

    King Richard

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, The Matrix Resurrections, House of Gucci, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Being the Ricardos

    Dune

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    House of Gucci

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: The Suicide Squad, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, King Richard, The French Dispatch

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Belfast

    No Time to Die

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Could Jump In: tick, tick…Boom, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, Eternals, King Richard, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place Part II

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Matrix Resurrections

    Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs. Kong, Free Guy, Nightmare Alley, The Suicide Squad, No Time to Die, Black Widow, The Green Knight

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune (With the hype this Hans Zimmer score had, the final product is slightly underwhelming but until I hear more of the others I don’t know what can beat it)

    The Power of the Dog (I liked this, I don’t know if it’s a winning score but it sounds great)

    Spencer (If this film ends up getting a Best Picture nomination, I can see this score winning)

    The French Dispatch (Desplat was nominated for Isle of Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and The Grand Budapest Hotel and I don’t think this is a dip in quality so I think he can get in)

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast, Parallel Mothers, Nightmare Alley, Luca, Licorice Pizza, Cyrano

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    King Richard

    No Time to Die

    Belfast

    Encanto

    The Rescue

    Could Jump In: Cyrano, Four Good Days, Annette, CODA, The Harder They Fall, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen, The Automat, Don’t Look Up

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    The Worst Person in the World

    The Hand of God

    A Hero

    Flee

    I’m Your Man

    Could Jump In: Compartment No. 6, Titane, Drive My Car, Leave No Traces, Prayers for the Stolen, Unclenching the Fists, Lamb