Tag: oscars 2022

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

2021 – Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, WGA, CCA

2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG

2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – GG

2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

As much as I want Paul Thomas Anderson to win his first Oscar here and as much as I think there is a desire to reward him here, I think Belfast will just edge it out. The Academy often awards Picture nominees that they like yet don’t award anywhere else in the Screenplay categories. Unfortunately, that description applies to Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. All of these films are very much driven by their screenplays so I believe the biggest Best Picture contender will prevail in the end and I think that means this award is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. As exemplified by past winners in this category, Best Original Screenplays either have high-concept loglines (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight in Paris), are serious and melancholic realist dramas (Manchester by the Sea and Spotlight), or win Best Picture (Parasite, Green Book, Spotlight, and Birdman). Don’t Look Up fits the first category and Belfast somewhat fits the second, while Licorice Pizza doesn’t fit any. In the end, I’m going to go with Belfast since, in addition to it getting nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay like Licorice Pizza, it also has nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, and Original Song, implying to me that it has more support than PTA’s film.

Nominees:

Belfast – GG, CCA

Licorice Pizza – BAFTA

Don’t Look Up – WGA

The Worst Person in the World

King Richard

Pick: Belfast

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CODA obviously has so much love right now with the PGA, WGA, and SAG wins it has accrued. Still, it has only been nominated for 3 Oscars and while I’m not sure if it has what it needs to earn Picture, I think people will vote for it in Adapted Screenplay. If CODA wins Best Picture it will undoubtedly take this as well (CODA can’t win Picture without a win here as well) but I think that the film taking this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture. Anyways, it fits the kind of populist-leaning fare (Jojo Rabbit, The Imitation Game) that have won here in the past. The Power of the Dog still has the ability to win here but it’s very unlikely that the film gets Adapted Screenplay and Director, and not Picture or all three.

Nominees: 

CODA – BAFTA, WGA

The Power of the Dog – CCA

Drive My Car

The Lost Daughter – USC

Dune

Pick: CODA

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. One thing that seems to be constant is that these shorts should have the power to linger past the moment the credits roll. I think The Long Goodbye, like Skin and Two Distant Strangers before it, has that visceral quality and it doesn’t hurt that a big name is behind it (Riz Ahmed). Please Hold, Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, and The Dress also have chances to steal as well.

Nominees:

The Long Goodbye

Ala Kachuu – Take and Run

Please Hold

The Dress

On My Mind

Pick: The Long Goodbye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

In the last 10 years, the longest winner in this category was 15 minutes (The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lesmore in 2011) and this year’s frontrunner, Robin Robin, is 32 minutes long. However, I think Robin Robin should be able to win this since it’s family-friendly like most of the last decade’s 10 winners here. Still, Robin Robin’s length does decrease the film’s chances somewhat and Bestia, the most visceral of the films here, has a very good chance to steal and I would pick it if it wasn’t for the big names behind Robin Robin and the fact that I think voters often namecheck people they recognize without watching the films in categories like the shorts.

Nominees:

Robin Robin

Bestia

The Windshield Wiper

Affairs of the Art

BoxBallet

Pick: Robin Robin

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Three Songs for Benazir fits the mold of many previous winners in this category (specifically Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone and The White Helmets) since it’s also a short film taking place in an Asian warzone. However, I think The Queen of Basketball, with Shaquille O’Neal and Stephen Curry behind it, will win. It’s the film with the most clout behind it and while that oftentimes doesn’t mean anything in these categories, the film also has the highest IMDb score of the three top nominees (Audible – 6.7, ‘Benazir’ – 6.2, and ‘Basketball’ – 7.1) which is more significant of an indicator.

Nominees:

The Queen of Basketball

Three Songs for Benazir

Audible

When We Were Bullies

Lead Me Home

Pick: The Queen of Basketball

BEST ACTOR

After watching The Power of the Dog, I was sure Benedict Cumberbatch was going to win this. I even thought that Will Smith could take GG, CCA, and SAG, but if Cumberbatch at least BAFTA he would win. Well, Will Smith has swept all the precursors and while Cumberbatch still has a chance to steal, it seems to be Smith’s moment.

Nominees:

Will Smith – King Richard – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

Pick: Will Smith – King Richard 

BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Nicole Kidman, and Kristen Stewart are all the leads of biopics and, as a result, will likely split votes. Among the three, Chastain seems to have the edge since she didn’t have the uncanny-valley makeup of Kidman or the inaccessible-to-some film that Stewart had. As a result of this vote-splitting, Penelope Cruz and/or Olivia Colman could benefit. Cruz seems to have the most passion behind her performance but I’m still unsure about whether enough people saw the film. I’m going to go with precursor leader Chastain though anyone, most likely Cruz or Stewart, can steal.

Nominees:

Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – CCA, SAG

Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos – GG

Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

Pick: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

2021 – Daniel Kaluuya – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2020 – Brad Pitt – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2019 – Mahershala Ali – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2018 – Sam Rockwell – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

2017 – Mahershala Ali – SAG, CCA

2016 – Mark Rylance – BAFTA

 2015 – JK Simmons – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

Troy Kotsur has so much love right now and he has won three of the four major precursors in this category. Even if CODA doesn’t win Picture, Kotsur should take this though I don’t see CODA becoming our Picture winner without Kotsur first taking this.

Nominees: 

Troy Kotsur – CODA – CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog – GG

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos

Pick: Troy Kotsur – CODA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Ariana DeBose has swept this category so this really should be a no-brainer. However, Kirsten Dunst is beloved by so many and there does seem to be a semblance of a campaign to have the overdue Dunst win on her first nomination. However, I am personally going to stick with DeBose, who’s win in a musical reminds me of when Jennifer Hudson won for Dreamgirls.

Nominees:

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Judi Dench – Belfast

Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

Pick: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

BEST FILM EDITING

Because both BAFTA and CCA went with films (No Time to Die and West Side Story respectively) that are not nominees here, this category is really interesting. One stat I want to mention is that every Editing winner since Whiplash has won a Sound award as well, and the only nominees here that are also nominated for Sound are Dune and The Power of the Dog. If you look at the films that have recently been awarded in this category, they are usually centered around music, sports, war, and/or sci-fi action. Dune fits the last two boxes while The Power of the Dog doesn’t hit any. Therefore, Dune should take this.

Nominees:

Dune

King Richard – ACE (Drama)

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…BOOM! – ACE (Comedy)

Don’t Look Up

Pick: Dune

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

In the last 20 years, only four winners have won this category without a nomination in Best Director (funnily enough, Villeneuve’s previous film Blade Runner 2049 won Best Cinematography although Villeneuve missed Director).

2021 – Mank – ASC

2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors and Dune’s BAFTA-ASC combination should help it to victory. The last time a film with that combination with that combination lost the Oscar was Children of Men in 2007. The Power of the Dog and ‘Macbeth’ can steal, but this seems like Dune’s to lose.

Nominees:

Dune – BAFTA, ASC

The Power of the Dog – CCA

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Nightmare Alley

West Side Story

Pick: Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Cruella is the overwhelming favorite but two things give me pause. Firstly, every winner in the last 25 years has been set primarily in the 1950s or earlier or was a sci-fi/fantasy film. Secondly, in the last 30 years, only five films have won this award without a Production Design nod as well. Cruella is set in the 1970s. It has the flashiest costumes of the bunch and that alone should push it to the win but don’t be surprised if something like Dune or Nightmare Alley (which both have production design nominations unlike Cruella) steal.

Nominees: 

Cruella – CCA, BAFTA, CDG (Period)

Dune – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

Nightmare Alley

Cyrano

West Side Story

Pick: Cruella