Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay | Awards Insights
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Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

Oscar Shortlists for 9 Categories Released

Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay


2021 – Promising Young Woman – BAFTA, WGA, CCA

2020 – Parasite – BAFTA, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG

2018 – Get Out – CCA, WGA

2017 – Manchester by the Sea – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – Spotlight – BAFTA, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – GG

2014 – Her – GG, CCA, WGA

2013 – Django Unchained – GG, BAFTA, CCA

2012 – Midnight in Paris – GG, CCA, WGA

As much as I want Paul Thomas Anderson to win his first Oscar here and as much as I think there is a desire to reward him here, I think Belfast will just edge it out. The Academy often awards Picture nominees that they like yet don’t award anywhere else in the Screenplay categories. Unfortunately, that description applies to Belfast, Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up. All of these films are very much driven by their screenplays so I believe the biggest Best Picture contender will prevail in the end and I think that means this award is between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. As exemplified by past winners in this category, Best Original Screenplays either have high-concept loglines (Promising Young Woman, Parasite, Get Out, Her, Django Unchained, and Midnight in Paris), are serious and melancholic realist dramas (Manchester by the Sea and Spotlight), or win Best Picture (Parasite, Green Book, Spotlight, and Birdman). Don’t Look Up fits the first category and Belfast somewhat fits the second, while Licorice Pizza doesn’t fit any. In the end, I’m going to go with Belfast since, in addition to it getting nominations in Picture, Director, and Screenplay like Licorice Pizza, it also has nominations in Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Sound, and Original Song, implying to me that it has more support than PTA’s film.


Belfast – GG, CCA

Licorice Pizza – BAFTA

Don’t Look Up – WGA

The Worst Person in the World

King Richard

Pick: Belfast


CODA obviously has so much love right now with the PGA, WGA, and SAG wins it has accrued. Still, it has only been nominated for 3 Oscars and while I’m not sure if it has what it needs to earn Picture, I think people will vote for it in Adapted Screenplay. If CODA wins Best Picture it will undoubtedly take this as well (CODA can’t win Picture without a win here as well) but I think that the film taking this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will win Best Picture. Anyways, it fits the kind of populist-leaning fare (Jojo Rabbit, The Imitation Game) that have won here in the past. The Power of the Dog still has the ability to win here but it’s very unlikely that the film gets Adapted Screenplay and Director, and not Picture or all three.



The Power of the Dog – CCA

Drive My Car

The Lost Daughter – USC


Pick: CODA