Awards Insights

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  • Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    Venice and Toronto Release Lineups: ‘Queer’, ‘Conclave’, ‘Joker’ Will Premiere

    VENICE

    The lineup for this year’s Venice Film Festival was just announced. This is the first major festival lineup announcement of the Oscar season and it gives us our first introductory look at this year’s possible contenders. In seven of the past eight years, a top two Picture contender has played at Venice and this trend shows no signs of stopping.

    In my predictions from this month, I have one of the films that have shown up in the Venice lineup in the top 10: Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. However, Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door, Todd Phillips’s Joker: Folie a Deux, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Pablo Larrain’s Maria, and Justin Kurzel’s The Order are films to look out for. If any one of these films leave Venice highly-acclaimed and/or win one of their top prizes, their chances of being a Best Picture contender expand greatly. While I’m not confident that any of these films will become a top 2 Best Picture contender this season, I’m essentially guaranteeing that one of them will end up being a top 5 contender.

    Here is the Venice slate for this year:

    In Competition

    The Room Next Door, dir. Pedro Almodóvar

    Campo di Battaglia (Battleground), dir. Gianni Amelio

    Leurs enfants après eux (And Their Children After Them), dir. Ludovic Boukherma, Zoran Boukherma

    The Brutalist, dir. Brady Corbet

    Jouer avec le feu (The Quiet Son), dir. Delphine Coulin, Muriel Coulin

    Vermiglio, dir. Maura Delpero

    Iddu (Sicilian Letters), dir. Fabio Grassadonia, Antonio Piazza

    Queer, dir. Luca Guadagnino

    Kjærlighet (Love), dir. Dag Johan Haugerud

    April, dir. Dea Kulumbegashvili

    The Order, dir. Justin Kurzel

    Maria, dir. Pablo Larraín

    Trois amies (Three Friends), dir. Emmanuel Mouret

    Kill the Jockey, dir. Luis Ortega

    Joker: Folie à Deux, dir. Todd Phillips

    Babygirl, dir. Halina Reijn

    Ainda estou aqui (I’m Still Here), dir. Walter Salles

    Diva Futura, dir. Giulia Louise Steigerwalt

    Harvest, dir. Athina Rachel Tsangari

    Qing chun gui (Youth – Homecoming), dir. Wang Bing

    Stranger Eyes, dir. Yeo Siew Hua

    Out of Competition (Fiction)

    Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, dir. Tim Burton

    L’orto americano (The American Backyard), dir. Pupi Avati

    Il tempo che ci vuole, dir. Francesca Comencini

    Phantosmia, dir. Lav Diaz

    Maldoror, dir. Fabrice du Welz

    Broken Rage, dir. Takeshi Kitano

    Baby Invasion, dir. Harmony Korine

    Cloud, dir. Kurosawa Kiyoshi

    Finalement (Finally), dir. Claude Lelouch

    Wolfs, dir. Jon Watts

    Se posso permettermi Capitolo II, dir. Marco Bellocchio

    Allégorie citadine (An Urban Allegory), dir. Alice Rohrwacher, JR

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Venice from the past 8 years:

    2023 – In Competition: Poor Things (Golden Lion winner), Maestro

    2022 – In Competition: Tar (Best Actress winner), The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Actor and Best Screenplay winner)

    2021 – In Competition: The Power of the Dog (Silver Lion winner); Out of Competition: Dune

    2020 – In Competition: Nomadland (Golden Lion winner)

    2019 – In Competition: Joker (Golden Lion winner), Marriage Story

    2018 – In Competition: The Favourite (Grand Jury Prize and Best Actress winner), Roma (Golden Lion winner); Out of Competition: A Star is Born

    2017 – In Competition: The Shape of Water (Golden Lion winner), Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Best Screenplay winner)

    2016 – In Competition: Arrival, La La Land (Best Actress winner); Out of Competition: Hacksaw Ridge

    Based on this, it would be reasonable to suspect that at least two fiction films from this year’s in competition and out of competition slates will make it in Best Picture. I don’t really see anything from the out of competition slate becoming a Picture contender but in terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Queer, Joker: Folie a Deux, The Room Next Door, I’m Still Here, Maria, The Order, and Wolfs. Like with Joker back in 2019, Warner Bros. has submitted ‘Folie a Deux’ in competition at the festival, possibly indicating their confidence in its quality. There’s never been a year with three blockbuster sequels in the Best Picture nominee slate but if Joker 2 and Gladiator 2 play well, we could see them join Dune 2 as Best Picture nominees.

    This is the rest of the Venice slate:

     

    Out of Competition (Non-Fiction)

    Apocalipse nos trópicos (Apocalypse in the Tropics), dir. Petra Costa

    Bestiari, erbari, lapidari (Bestiaries, Herbaria, Lapidaries), dir. Massimo D’Anolfi, Martina Parenti

    Why War, dir. Amos Gitai

    2073, dir. Asif Kapadia

    One to One: John & Yoko, dir. Kevin Macdonald, Sam Rice-Edwards

    Separated, dir. Errol Morris

    Israel Palestina på svensk TV 1958-1989 (Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989), dir. Göran Hugo Olsson

    Russians at War, dir. Anastasia Trofimova

    TWST / Things We Said Today, dir. Andrei Ujică

    Riefenstahl, dir. Andres Veiel

    Pisni zemli, shcho povilno (Songs of Slow Burning Earth), dir. Olha Zhurba

    Out of Competition (Series)

    Disclaimer (Chapters 1 – 7), dir. Alfonso Cuarón

    Los años nuevos (The New Years) (Ep. 1 – 10), dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen del Amo, Sandra Romero, David Martín de los Santos

    Familier som vores (Families Like Ours) (Ep. 1 – 7), dir. Thomas Vinterberg

    M – Il figlio del secolo (M – Son of the Century) (Ep. 1 – 8), dir. Joe Wright

    Out of Competition (Special Screenings)

    Leopardi. The Poet of the Infinity (Part 1 & 2), dir. Sergio Rubini

    Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, dir. Peter Weir

    Beauty Is Not a Sin, dir. Nicolas Winding Refn

    Horizons Competition

    Nonostante, dir. Valerio Mastandrea

    Quiet Life, dir. Alexandros Avranas

    Mon inséparable (My Everything), dir. Anne-Sophie Bailly

    Aïcha, dir. Mehdi Barsaoui

     

    TORONTO

    In the last ten years, the eventual Best Picture winner has played at TIFF six times. As a result, it has garnered a reputation as the most important festival in the Oscar race. Additionally, in the last 10 years, excluding the COVID year 2020, at least three films that screened at TIFF were nominated for Best Picture later that season. This year, Sean Baker’s Anora, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Edward Berger’s Conclave, Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson, Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End, Payal Kapadia’s All We Imagine as Light, Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch, John Crowley’s We Live in Time, and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside are some of the most high-profile films being shown. Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing which is undoubtedly in the running this year as a major Best Picture nominee contender, played at TIFF last year.

     

    Galas 2024

    *previously announced

    “Andrea Bocelli: Because I Believe,” Cosima Spender | UK
    World Premiere

    “Better Man,” Michael Gracey | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs,” Embeth Davidtz | South Africa
    Canadian Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Eden,” Ron Howard | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Elton John: Never Too Late,” R.J. Cutler, David Furnish | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Harbin,” Woo Min-ho | South Korea
    World Premiere

    “Meet the Barbarians,” Julie Delpy | France
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Nutcrackers,” David Gordon Green | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Oh, Canada,” Paul Schrader | USA
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band,” Thom Zimny | USA
    World Premiere

    *“Superboys of Malegaon,” Reema Kagti | India
    World Premiere

    *“The Deb,” Rebel Wilson | Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Friend,” Scott McGehee, David Siegel | USA
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Penguin Lessons,” Peter Cattaneo | Spain/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Return,” Uberto Pasolini | Italy/United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Shrouds,” David Cronenberg | Canada/France
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Wild Robot,” Chris Sanders | USA
    World Premiere

    “Unstoppable,“ William Goldenberg | USA
    World Premiere

    “Will & Harper,” Josh Greenbaum | USA
    International Premiere

    Special Presentations 2024

    *Previously announced

    “40 Acres,” R.T. Thorne | Canada
    World Premiere

    “All of You,” William Bridges | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “All We Imagine as Light,” Payal Kapadia | France/India/Netherlands/Luxembourg
    Canadian Premiere

    “Anora,” Sean Baker | USA
    Canadian Premiere

    “Bird,” Andrea Arnold | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere

    “Bring Them Down,” Christopher Andrews | Ireland/Belgium
    World Premiere

    “Can I Get A Witness?” Ann Marie Fleming | Canada
    World Premiere

    “Carnival is Over,” Fernando Coimbra | Brazil/Portugal
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Caught by the Tides,” Jia Zhang-Ke | China
    North American Premiere

    “Conclave,” Edward Berger | USA/United Kingdom
    International Premiere

    “Emilia Pérez,” Jacques Audiard | France/USA/Mexico
    Canadian Premiere

    “Hard Truths,” Mike Leigh | United Kingdom/Spain
    World Premiere

    “Harvest,” Athina Rachel Tsangari | United Kingdom
    North American Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Heretic,” Scott Beck, Bryan Woods | Canada
    World Premiere

    “I’m Still Here,” Walter Salles | Brazil/France
    North American Premiere

    “I, the Executioner,” Ryoo Seung-wan | South Korea
    North American Premiere

    *“K-Pops,” Anderson .Paak | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Love in the Big City,” E.oni | South Korea
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Millers in Marriage,” Edward Burns | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Misericordia,” Alain Guiraudie | Spain/Portugal/France
    Canadian Premiere

    *“Nightbitch,” Marielle Heller | USA
    World Premiere

    “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl,” Rungano Nyoni | Zambia/United Kingdom/Ireland
    North American Premiere

    “Piece by Piece,” Morgan Neville | USA
    International Premiere

    “Quisling – The Final Days,” Erik Poppe | Norway
    International Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Relay,” David Mackenzie | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rez Ball,” Sydney Freeland | USA
    World Premiere

    “Riff Raff,” Dito Montiel | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Rumours,” Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, Galen Johnson | Canada/Germany
    North American Premiere

    “Sharp Corner,” Jason Buxton | Canada/Ireland
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“Shepherds,” Sophie Deraspe | Canada/France
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Sketch,” Seth Worley | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Assessment,” Fleur Fortuné | United Kingdom/Germany/USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Cut,” Sean Ellis | United Kingdom
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The End,” Joshua Oppenheimer | Denmark/UK
    Canadian Premiere

    “The Fire,” Inside Rachel Morrison | USA
    World Premiere

    “The Girl with the Needle,” Magnus von Horn | Denmark/Poland/Sweden
    North American Premiere

    “The Last Showgirl,” Gia Coppola | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    *“The Life of Chuck,” Mike Flanagan | USA
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “The Order,” Justin Kurzel | Canada/USA
    North American Premiere

    “The Piano Lesson,” Malcolm Washington | USA
    International Premiere

    *“We Live in Time,” John Crowley | United Kingdom/France
    World Premiere

    “Went Up the Hill,” Samuel Van Grinsven | New Zealand/Australia
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Without Blood,” Angelina Jolie | USA/Italy
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

    “Young Werther,” José Avelino Gilles Corbett Lourenço | Canada
    World Premiere
    Sales Title – Rights Available

     

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 11 years:

    2023 – Special Presentations: American Fiction (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), The Zone of Interest

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    Based on this, I think it’s reasonable to expect that four to five of the films playing at TIFF will end up as Best Picture nominees. I’m not confident on whether this year’s Best Picture winner will play at TIFF, but history says that at least two of this year’s top five contenders will play at Toronto. In terms of likelihood, the films from the competition slate that I think have a best chance of receiving a Picture nomination are, Anora, Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, and The End

  • Fall Festival Films to Look Out for Come Oscar Season

    Fall Festival Films to Look Out for Come Oscar Season

    With Telluride, Venice, and Toronto all done and dusted, we are officially deep in the midst of fall festival season. Even though it’s been just a few weeks since Venice started on August 30th, many of this year’s players have been screened and the reactions are already piling in. We can expect that at least half of the ten films that make up 2024’s Best Picture slate will have played in at least one of these three festivals. 

    POOR THINGS

    Searchlight has its contender. Yorgos Lanthimos has once again delivered a critically acclaimed period film featuring a wonderful performance from Emma Stone and I smell a top 6 Best Picture contender in the making. Currently killing it with a Metascore of 94 on 22 reviews, Poor Things will most likely continue Searchlight’s track record of reliably delivering Best Picture nominees on an annual basis. Raunchy, witty, and visually breathtaking, expect nominations for the film in Picture, Stone in Actress, Tony McNamara in screenplay, Cinematography, Makeup and Hair, Costume Design, Production Design, and maybe Editing, Supporting Actor for Mark Ruffalo and Directing as well. With the Golden Lion now on the film’s mantle, Lanthimos’ film looks to follow the trajectory of The Shape of Water, Roma, Joker, and Nomadland, Golden Lion winners that translated Venice wins into Oscar success.

    MAESTRO

    Cementing itself as Netflix’s biggest contender of the year, Maestro has received very positive reviews (80 on 21 reviews over at Metacritic) so far and should be secured for a spot in the Picture race. And while Bradley Cooper has been praised, Carey Mulligan has been earning raves for her work as Felicia Bernstein. Both will likely be nominated and outside of Picture expect to see in this film in categories like Sound, possibly Editing, possibly Cinematography, and possibly Makeup and Hair. The controversy around the film surrounding the casting of the non-Jewish Cooper as the Jewish Leonard Bernstein will likely grow stronger as the season trudges on. As a result, I don’t see either actors winning Oscars for their work and the film will probably be restricted to five or fewer nominations.

    ALL OF US STRANGERS

    The biggest shock critical darling so far, ‘Weekend’ and ‘45 Years’ Director Andrew Haigh has come out with a film that currently has a 98 Metascore on 11 reviews. Touted as jaw-dropping, deeply poignant, delicate, and sensual, All of Us Strangers reminds me of last year’s Aftersun in some ways. Mostly in that they are both small-scale meditations on memory that feature Paul Mescal and are incredibly acclaimed and beloved. In terms of Oscar chances, I don’t see it making Best Picture unless Searchlight (they will focus all of their energy on Poor Things) pushes it in a major way but it should earn nods in Adapted Screenplay and possibly Actor and Supporting Actor nods for Andrew Scott and Paul Mescal respectively.

    THE HOLDOVERS

    The feel-good actors showcase, the Oscar bait of decades ago. Now, however, these films are no longer sure things when it comes to the Academy’s attention. Still, expect a strong campaign for Paul Giamatti in the starring role, Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and possibly Best Picture if it cements itself as a massive crowdpleaser. This is a film that could take the Green Book-route. It’s a feel-good, adult-oriented, middlebrow, “they don’t make ‘em like they used to” dramedy that clearly is well-liked by critics (it currently holds a Metascore of 83 on 19 reviews). This is a film that I can see winning a prize at Toronto and if it does, its Oscar nomination chances will skyrocket.

    Update: Now that it has won a prize at Toronto, The Holdovers has pretty much all it needs for a Picture nomination. Expect to see the film receiving nods in Screenplay, Actor for Paul Giamatti and Supporting Actress for Da’Vine-Joy Randolph as well.

    ANATOMY OF A FALL

    This Palme D’Or winner’s hype started in May and hasn’t died down even after three months of new, buzzy films being released. Directed by Justine Triet, who I foresee will receive an Oscar nod if the film keeps up its current level of acclaim, and starring Sandra Huller, the film is a socially conscious mystery thriller and legal drama that will be a top six contender if its traction persists. This is definitely a film that I can see getting a second or third place award at TIFF.

    THE ZONE OF INTEREST

    The other bright star of Cannes, Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest is making the fall festival rounds and continues to rack up its fans and supporters. However, it’s also gaining its fair share of detractors who criticize the film for being too “cold”. While I think this will end this year as a critics’ favorite and an Oscar nominee, how successful the film will be will probably be limited by detractors like these. 

    RUSTIN

    The raves for Colman Domingo’s performance as activist Bayard Rustin have been broad and overwhelming. Without the film being a top 12 Best Picture contender, I highly doubt Domingo wins Best Actor, but he seems poised for a nomination. The film, however, doesn’t seem like it’ll be unique or affecting enough for a Picture nomination, though we will see how people react to it once more eyes are on it.

    NYAD

    This and Next Goal Wins look to be this year’s Oscar season sport movies. Both Annette Bening and Jodie Foster give stellar performances and will likely be in the nomination conversation. However, I doubt the movie will have enough behind it to get all the way to a Best Picture nod. Although, if it does win something in Toronto, that will very much change. 

    FERRARI

    Michael Mann is back in the movies. This time with a film centering on Enzo Ferrari’s life. While Adam Driver’s performance hasn’t been disliked, there doesn’t seem to be too much love for it. Penelope Cruz, playing Ferrari’s wife Laura Ferrari, has received raves. However, this year’s Supporting Actress race already has an acclaimed “long-suffering wife of the titular male philandering genius biopic character” performance in Emily Blunt as Kitty Oppenheimer. Even while significantly different, I doubt the Academy will nominate two of this variety of performance in the same category in the same year (especially with Carey Mulligan delivering something within the same prestige biopic trope in Maestro). I think Sound might be all the film musters in the end.

    THE BIKERIDERS

    Austin Butler, Jodie Comer, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, Boyd Holbrook, and Tom Hardy round out the phenomenal cast that star in Jeff Nichols’ latest. While the film was well-received, its 74 Metascore indicates that it may not have the love that it would need to be a Picture contender. Comer is a possible upset pick for a nod in Supporting Actress but other than that category and Screenplay, don’t expect to see too much of The Bikeriders.

    PRISCILLA

    Caelin Spaeny won Venice’s prize for Best Actress and her Oscar chances instantly skyrocketed. However, Best Actress looks to be especially competitive this year with multiple wonderful performances competing for the top prize. And with Priscilla unlikely to be a Best Picture contender, Spaeny’s nomination looks unlikely.

    THE BOY AND THE HERON

    The newest film from one of the most legendary filmmakers in animation history, Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron received rave reaction from its TIFF opening night premiere and is a front runner for the people’s choice award.

    Update: The Boy and the Heron did win third place for the People’s Choice Award and has definitely cemented itself as a film that will be impossible to ignore. This is supposed to be Miyazaki’s final film and it will be interesting to see how much of the positive regard the film has received becomes moreso a product of the regard for Miyazaki or for the film itself.  

    THE KILLER

    The consensus on the film is that it’s lesser Fincher and that narrative, that it’s a relatively weaker attempt at Fincher doing what he does best, will likely keep it from more than a few Oscar nods if that. Fincher’s track record with acting nominations is very strong (every film he’s made since 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has had at least one acting nod. However, like Zodiac, The Killer will probably get shutout in all categories.

    SALTBURN

    The reactions coming out of Emerald Fennell’s newest were frankly disappointing. While the film has received generally positive reviews, it did not seem to provoke the kind of strong reactions that something like Fennell’s most recent venture Promising Young Woman had in spades. Nods in the techs will probably be all this film will be limited to. With a cast like Barry Keoghan, Rosamund Pike, Jacob Elordi, and Carey Mulligan, the film clearly has some of the most in-demand stars behind it, but that probably won’t be enough to get any above-the-line nominations. 

    AMERICAN FICTION

    A satire on race, modern media, and the literature world that skewers white people in a way contemporary white liberals seem to eat up, American Fiction played very well at TIFF and is also a frontrunner for the People’s Choice Award. With American Fiction, Cord Jefferson, TV writer extraordinaire, makes the jump to film and has seemed to have done so with flying colors.

    Update: Now that American Fiction has won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, it immediately becomes a top five Best Picture contender. Expect a possible win in Screenplay, nominations in Actor for Jeffrey Wright, and possible nominations in Director, Editing, and other acting categories as well.

    ORIGIN

    A poignant, tear jerking piece on the American caste system from 13th and When They See Us Director Ava DuVernay. It’s a deeply ambitious film that seems to have its fans. Most of the acclaim seems to be reserved for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor’s performance and DuVernay’s direction, but this is the type of timely film that could find success if campaigned correctly. However, I do not think it’s going to have the luxury of a major push with distributor Neon already having Anatomy of a Fall on its plate.

  • TIFF Awards ‘American Fiction’, ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’

    TIFF Awards ‘American Fiction’, ‘The Holdovers’ and ‘The Boy and the Heron’

    The Toronto International Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award is one of the biggest indicators of Oscar success. Since 2012, every winner of the award has been nominated for Best Picture and at least three other awards. This year, Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction topped the festival slate and immediately cements itself as a top six Best Picture contender. MGM distributes the film and with no other major contenders to juggle, they should be able to put all their might into promoting and campaigning it.

    According to Metacritic the film’s synopsis is as follows: “Monk (Jeffrey Wright) is a frustrated novelist who’s fed up with the establishment profiting from “Black” entertainment that relies on tired and offensive tropes. To prove his point, Monk uses a pen name to write an outlandish “Black” book of his own, a book that propels him to the heart of hypocrisy and the madness he claims to disdain.” Right now, the film has an 83 on Metacritic from 12 critic reviews. For the type of movie that it is, a socially conscious satire starring major Hollywood stars like Jeffrey Wright, Issa Rae, Tracee Ellie Ross, and Sterling K. Brown. With these highly-respected stars behind it, a major distributor that can throw its complete weight behind it, a mix of social consciousness and accessibility, and general critical acclaim, American Fiction, at this stage, looks like it has a reasonable chance to win Best Picture. An Adapted Screenplay nod is almost guaranteed, and Jeffrey Wright might be able to make it into the stacked Actor field as well. Sterling K. Brown is a longer shot, but as the season goes on his chances in Supporting Actor might increase substantially.

    The Holdovers and The Boy and the Heron round out the rest of the TIFF People’s Choice Award honorees. Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers should be pretty much secure for a Best Picture nod. It’s a crowdpleasing dramedy that also has a 82 on Metacritic from 18 reviews. For a dramedy, the level of critical regard it has should be more than enough for it to be nominated. The Boy and the Heron won TIFF’s third place, and as animation legend Hayao Miyazaki’s last film, there’s definitely a narrative for the film to be awarded across the board. The film is said to be gentler, more contemplative, than most Ghibli fare. The film currently holds an 89 Metascore and is clearly loved by many. However, I think the love for the film is partly due to it being Miyazaki’s last and I’m not sure how much traction it will get outside of the Animated Feature category.

    Here are the Best Picture nominees that went to Toronto from the past 10 years:

    2022 – Special Presentations: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans (People’s Choice Award 1st Place), Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    2021 – Gala Presentations: Belfast (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: Drive My Car, The Power of the Dog (People’s Choice Award 3rd place); Special Events: Dune

    2020 – Gala Presentations: Nomadland (People’s Choice Award 1st place); Special Presentations: The Father

    2019 – Gala Presentations: Ford v Ferrari, Joker; Special Presentations: Jojo Rabbit (People’s Choice award 1st place), Marriage Story (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Parasite (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2018 – Gala Presentations: Green Book (People’s Choice Award 1st place), A Star is Born; Special Presentations: Roma (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2017 – Gala Presentations: Darkest Hour; Special Presentations: Call Me By Your Name (People’s Choice Award 3rd place), Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (People’s Choice Award 1st place)

    2016 – Gala Presentations: Arrival; Special Presentations: La La Land (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Lion (People’s Choice Award 2nd place), Manchester by the Sea; Platform: Moonlight

    2015 – Gala Presentations: The Martian; Special Presentations: Brooklyn, Room (People’s Choice Award winner), Spotlight (People’s Choice Award 3rd place)

    2014 – Special Presentations: The Imitation Game (People’s Choice Award 1st place), The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

    2013 – Special Presentations: 12 Years a Slave (People’s Choice Award 1st place), Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Philomena (People’s Choice Award 2nd place)

    From this, it seems likely that three to five films that played at TIFF will make it into Best Picture. In order of likelihood, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, The Holdovers seem like the best bets. The Boy and the Heron and Rustin also have a chance as well.

  • ‘Belfast’ Wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award; ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Scarborough’ are Runner-Ups

    ‘Belfast’ Wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award; ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Scarborough’ are Runner-Ups

    Finally, we have some truly concrete frontrunners in this Oscar race! Belfast won the TIFF People’s Choice Award (which I predicted, not to brag) and The Power of the Dog (which I also predicted) and Scarborough were named as runner-ups.

    I had already declared The Power of the Dog to be locked for a Best Picture nomination after its performance in Venice and now Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical black-and-white picture Belfast joins that camp.

    Scarborough seems like another in the line of Canadian films that get a runner-up award at the Toronto-based festival (like Beans last year and Starbuck in 2011) so I doubt it gets much Oscar traction.

    Maybe you might not know why I am so confidently proclaiming Belfast and The Power of the Dog as major frontrunners this early in the race so I’ll give you some reasons

     

    Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

    The winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2012 and after.

    Every winner of the People’s Choice award since Silver Linings Playbook in 2012 has won at least one above-the-line Oscar (Picture, Acting, Directing, or Screenplay)

    3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (12 Years a Slave, and Green Book, Nomadland).

    The festival also gives 2nd and 3rd place awards and in five times of the last 6 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination.

    In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

    In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

    Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

    Here’s a list of People’s Choice Award winners since 2012 that were Best Picture nominees:

    2012: Silver Linings Playbook (Runner-Up: Argo)

    2013: 12 Years a Slave (Runner-Up: Philomena)

    2014: The Imitation Game

    2015: Room (Runner-Up: Spotlight)

    2016: La La Land (Runner-Up: Lion)

    2017: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Runner-Up: Call Me By Your Name)

    2018: Green Book (Runner-Up: Roma)

    2019: Jojo Rabbit (Runner-Ups: Marriage Story and Parasite)

    2020: Nomadland

     

    As you can see Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and Scarborough join some very distinguished company. The former two will undoubtedly be in the top 3 of my predictions coming later this month and I would say that they are the only two films so far that can be declared locked.

     

  • Venice and TIFF Recap: “Nomadland” Wins People’s Choice Award

    Venice and TIFF Recap: “Nomadland” Wins People’s Choice Award

    Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland was named the winner of the Grolsch’s People Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. Regina King’s One Night in Miami and Tracey Deer’s Beans came in second and third place respectively.

    As I’ve shown in previous posts, the TIFF People’s Choice Award is one of the most important precursors of Best Picture at this stage in the race. In the last 5 years, 11 of the 15 chosen films for the People’s Choice Award went on to be nominated for Best Picture and 3 of those films ended up winning Best Picture. In the last 10 years, 6 Best Picture winners have been selected in one of the three places of the People’s Choice Award.

    Based on these statistics, two of the three winners will likely be nominated for Best Picture. My bets are on Nomadland and One Night in Miami as they are directed by known filmmakers (Chloe Zhao and Regina King), distributed by powerful studios (Searchlight and Amazon), and feature known names in front of the camera. However, if Beans gets picked up by a major distributor, the film’s Oscar chances will significantly rise.

    Also, it is important to mention that this year’s festival had a much smaller slate than it usually does and that might affect many of the trends seen with the winners of this award.

    In other TIFF news, Florian Zeller’s The Father starring Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman continues to get great reviews and while I expected it to get some recognition by the TIFF audience, I still think that it is the race. The trailer looked especially amazing and I am excited for the film to come out.

    Ammonite, however, does not seem to be getting as great reviews and while Kate Winslet likely still will be nominated for Best Actress, the film seems to be barely a Top 15 Best Picture contender at this point.

    In Venice news, Nomadland also won the Venice Golden Lion, which is the op prize at that film festival. While historically, the award ha snot been very predictive of Oscar success, the last 3 winners (The Shape of Water, Roma, and Joker) have been nominated for Best Picture. While Golden Lion winners have been runner-ups for the TIFF People’s Choice Award (Monsoon Wedding, Brokeback Mountain), this is the first time that the winner of the Golden Lion has also won the TIFF People’s Choice Award. While this is likely due to the slimmed slate at these festivals, it is a fact that solidifies Nomadland’s place as a top 5 Best Picture contender.