Awards Insights

Tag: oscars 2023

Oscars 2023: EEAAO Wins 7; Fraser, ‘All Quiet’ Surprise

The biggest story of the night is Everything Everywhere All at Once’s absolute dominance. It won seven Oscars including Best Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress (a controversial win for Jamie Lee Curtis), Original Screenplay, and Editing. From its SXSW release to now, the film has been steadily gathering steam to become the Oscar-crushing behemoth that it did. Its seven Oscars is the most any film has won in a single year since Gravity won seven in 2014.

Brendan Fraser won Best Actor! The fan-favorite star from The Whale triumphed in Best Actor, winning over presumed favorite Austin Butler. In other news, Netflix’s All Quiet on the Western Front won four of its nine nominations (surprising Babylon in Production Design), while The Banshees of Insiherin, The Fabelmans, Elvis and Tar were all completely snubbed. So much for sharing the wealth.

After an electrifying performance, RRR’s “Naatu Naatu” won Best Original Song, becoming the first Indian film to have its song win (Slumdog Millionaire was not an Indian film). Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick won in Best Editing and Sound respectively, breaking the stat tying those two categories together for ten years.

Anyways, here are the winners:

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front — Malte Grunert, Producer
Avatar: The Way of Water — James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Banshees of Inisherin — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
Elvis — Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
The Fabelmans — Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
Tár — Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
Top Gun: Maverick — Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Triangle of Sadness — Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
Women Talking — Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

Best Directing

The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg
Tár — Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Costume Design

Babylon — Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ruth Carter
Elvis — Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — Jenny Beavan

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front — Viktor Prásil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
Avatar: The Way of Water — Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
The Batman — Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
Elvis — David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
Top Gun: Maverick — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann
Babylon — Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux
The Fabelmans — John Williams

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front — Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Written by Rian Johnson
Living — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking — Screenplay by Sarah Polley

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin — Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Written by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Written by Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
Tár — Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Written by Ruben Östlund

Best Live-Action Short Film

“An Irish Goodbye” — Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” — Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” — Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride” — Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” — Cyrus Neshvad

Best Animated Short Film

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” — Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” — Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” — João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
“My Year of Dicks” — Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” — Lachlan Pendragon

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On — Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish — Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
The Sea Beast — Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Turning Red — Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Best Original Song

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front — Germany
Argentina, 1985 — Argentina
Close — Belgium
EO — Poland
The Quiet Girl — Ireland

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front — Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
The Batman — Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
Elvis — Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
The Whale — Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front — Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Avatar: The Way of Water — Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
Babylon — Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Elvis — Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
The Fabelmans — Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — Darius Khondji
Elvis — Mandy Walker
Empire of Light — Roger Deakins
Tár — Florian Hoffmeister

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front — Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
Avatar: The Way of Water — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
The Batman — Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
Top Gun: Maverick — Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes — Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed — Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
Fire of Love — Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
A House Made of Splinters — Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
Navalny — Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers” — Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” — Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” — Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” — Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate” — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin — Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis — Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Paul Rogers
Tár — Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick — Eddie Hamilton

March 12, 2023
2023 Final Oscar Predictions

After almost a year of predicting, the day is finally here. After my first predictions in late May, the landscape of this year has changed so much and we’ve been charting those transformations every step of the way. The 95th Academy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel for the third time and broadcasted on ABC on Sunday, March 12 at 7 p.m. CST. This was a year of fantastic blockbusters (Top Gun: Maverick and The Batman), indie word-of-mouth hits (Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin) and passion projects from Hollywood legends (Tar and The Fabelmans). It’s one of the few years where I can say most of the best films were recognized, but there were still some notable snubs in each category as usual. Unlike last year, where most of the major categories were very easy to predict, most of this year’s categories will be very close races.

Here are my FINAL predictions:

‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: No one

‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

BEST DIRECTOR:

WInner: The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: No one

‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

BEST ACTOR:

Winner: Austin Butler – Elvis

Could Steal: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

BEST ACTRESS:

Winner: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: Cate Blanchett – Tar

‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Winner: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: No one

‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ (Searchlight)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Winner: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Could Steal: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once

‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: The Banshees of Inisherin

‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: Women Talking

‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’ (Netflix)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Could Steal: No one

‘Babylon’ (Paramount)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Winner: Babylon

Could Steal: Elvis

‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: Elvis

‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

Winner: Elvis

Could Steal: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ (A24)

BEST FILM EDITING:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick

‘Elvis’ (Warner Bros.)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Winner: Elvis

Could Steal: The Whale

‘Top Gun: Maverick’ (Paramount)

BEST SOUND:

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Could Steal: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Steal: No one

‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: Babylon or The Fabelmans or Everything Everywhere All at Once

‘RRR’ (Netflix)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

Winner: RRR

Could Steal: Top Gun: Maverick or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

‘All Quiet on the Western Front’ (Netflix)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Steal: No one

‘Navalny’ (CNN)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Winner: Navalny

Could Steal: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

‘The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse’ (Apple+)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT:

Winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

Could Steal: My Year of Dicks or Ice Merchants

‘An Irish Goodbye’ (BFI)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Could Steal: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

‘Stranger at the Gate’ (The New Yorker)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Winner: Stranger at the Gate

Could Steal: The Elephant Whisperers or How Do You Measure a Year?

March 11, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

BEST PICTURE

I love it when the biggest award of the night is the easiest to predict. This year has been the story of Everything Everywhere All at Once’s dominance. From its premiere at South by Southwest on March 11 last year, the Daniels-directed film has been building steam, racking up award after award in the process. It’s a film that has restored many in Hollywood’s faith that word-of-mouth successes can still exist when the film industry is moving so rapidly away from theaters. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is a fantastic film that has touched such a large swathe of people and it is undeniably deserving of Best Picture this year.

Nominees:

Everything Everywhere All at Once – PGA, SAG, DGA, CCA, WGA

The Banshees of Inisherin – GG (Comedy/Musical)

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

The Fabelmans – GG (Drama)

Tar

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking – WGA

Triangle of Sadness

Avatar: The Way of Water

Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST DIRECTOR

While the tagline “Steven Spielberg makes a film about his burgeoning childhood interest in filmmaking” sounds like prime bait for a category like Best Director, the Daniels have already won the Directors Guild Award, one of the best barometers of who will win Best Director. Park Chan-Wook or Charlotte Wells would have also been deserving picks, yet were snubbed here. Wells’ exclusion is especially notable because it meant that no female-identifying filmmaker was nominated for Best Director.

Nominees:

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, DGA

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans – GG

Todd Field – Tar

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

Pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

March 10, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

BEST ACTOR

Paul Mescal’s vulnerable, emotionally complex work in Aftersun was one of the best performances of last year’s films. That said, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser are the two biggest contenders here, having each already received two major awards. While Fraser could win, the adoration that he has accrued in the United States isn’t as prevalent outside of the country, and the Academy has expanded more globally in the last few years. As a result, Austin Butler is the most probable contender for the award, especially since his performance fits the trend of past young biopic winners such as Eddie Redmayne and Rami Malek. Also, the last eight of the winners in this category won at BAFTA first and 7 of the eight won a Golden Globe as well. They are the two most predictive precursors of the four and Austin Butler has both.

Nominees:

Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, BAFTA

Brendan Fraser – The Whale – CCA, SAG

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

Pick: Austin Butler – Elvis

BEST ACTRESS

This may be the most competitive race of the night. Both Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett’s performances have received massive amounts of critical acclaim, popular recognition and industry support. Yeoh is in one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons of the year, but it’s one that will triumph in other categories as well, so voters may instead side with Blanchett here as it’s their best opportunity to recognize “Tar.” But I personally don’t see that happening and think that this was the year of Michelle Yeoh and as the face of the biggest film of the year, she will be winning her first Oscar. Could this be like the 2021 Best Actor race where Chadwick Boseman came in as the one with the most popular support yet the Academy went with BAFTA winner an industry legend Anthony Hopkins? I would say it could be but one essential difference is that Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear Best Picture winner while Chadwick Boseman’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wasn’t even nominated for Picture.

Nominees:

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, SAG

Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Pick: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Other than “Everything Everywhere All at Once” winning Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan winning Best Supporting Actor for his heartfelt and powerful work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the most locked of the major categories. This year’s nominations slate in this category is great all-around, nominating phenomenal work like Brian Tyree Henry’s subtle, moving and emotionally honest turn in “Causeway”.

Nominees:

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Pick: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This may be my own bias, but it is very hard for me to see the Academy give a Marvel movie performance an Oscar, even if it is the legendary Angela Bassett, someone who deserves to have an Oscar, giving that performance. Jamie Lee Curtis’ performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once seems too slight to win an Oscar and while her Hsu could take it, her lack of precursor wins makes that very unlikely. That leaves Kerry Condon who won at BAFTA. I thought that maybe she won because “Banshees” would appeal to the British awards body more than it would to AMPAS but she was the critics’ leader for a reason and is many’s favorite part of what is one of the most beloved films of the year. Also with the predicted snub in Original Screenplay, individual members could choose Supporting Actress as the place where they want to award “Banshees”.

Nominees:

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – SAG

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Hong Chau – The Whale

Pick: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

March 10, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Man, if what I think is going to happen here happens, Martin McDonagh is going to feel some very unfortunate deja vu. In 2018, McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri came into the Sunday night ceremony as a top-two Best Picture contender and was also expected to win Best Picture and Original Screenplay by many. Neither happened, and in Original Screenplay, McDonagh lost to Jordan Peele’s Get Out. This year, it looks like the Irish writer-director will once again to a genre-bending screenplay that captured the zeitgeist in unimaginable fashion. Everything Everywhere All at Once seems strong enough to take the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay and that will begin with a win here.

Nominees:

Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, WGA

The Banshees of Inisherin– BAFTA, GG

Tar

The Fabelmans

Triangle of Sadness

Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

While “Women Talking” has won the most critics’ prizes, the Writers Guild Award, and the Critics Choice Award in this category, I can’t shake the idea that “All Quiet on the Western Front” is going to win here. No Screenplay winner in the 21st century so far has had an IMDb score less than 7.2 (“Gosford Park” in 2002). “Women Talking” has a score of 7.0 while “All Quiet on The Western Front” boasts a score of 7.8. Yes, the only major win “All Quiet on the Western Front” has is a BAFTA win, but “The Father” was able to win Adapted Screenplay in 2021 with just a BAFTA under its belt. Sarah Polley’s film is the safe pick, but I think I will go with “All Quiet on the Western Front” becoming the first non-English film to win Adapted Screenplay.

Nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Women Talking – WGA, USC, CCA

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

March 10, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

BEST FILM EDITING

Since 2013, every winner in Best Editing has won a Sound award as well. This year, I think that streak ends. Oftentimes, the Academy voters here award genre films with incredibly flashy editing. These films oftentimes have very flashy sound design as well which is why this trend has continued. However, this year, Everything Everywhere All at Once has won the major precursors and is a genre film with a lot of quick cuts, action scenes, and flashy visuals. It makes sense as a winner and while Top Gun: Maverick would be the safe pick I am going to go with EEAAO here.

Nominees:

Everything Everywhere All at Once – ACE (Comedy/Musical), CCA, BAFTA

Top Gun: Maverick – ACE (Drama)

Elvis

The Banshees of Inisherin

Tar

Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

2022 – Dune – BAFTA, ASC

2021 – Mank – ASC

2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2014 – Gravity – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

2013 – Life of Pi – BAFTA, CCA

Based on past winners, the Academy seems to like very flashy cinematography in this category. For this category, BAFTA and ASC are the most important precursors. While All Quiet on the Western Front won BAFTA, Elvis won ASC though that was without All Quiet on the Western Front being nominated at ASC. An Elvis win here would be historic with Mandy Walker possibly becoming the first female cinematographer to win an Oscar. All Quiet on the Western Front just has the mix of landscape shots and stark color palettes that the Academy loves so James Friend will very likely win his first Oscar.

Nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Elvis – ASC

Tar

Empire of Light

Bardo

Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Elvis is the clear frontrunner and the kind of opulent period piece that the Academy likes to award here. Baz Luhrmann’s films have won twice already in this category (Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby) and as this is the Aussie director’s biggest Picture contender since Moulin Rouge!, it shouldn’t have much trouble taking Costume Design this time around as well.

Nominees:

Elvis – BAFTA, CDG (Period)

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – CCA

Everything Everywhere All at Once – CDG (Sci-Fi/Fantasy)

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Pick: Elvis

March 10, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are the major contenders here. While both fit the mold of the genre film that often wins here, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ has an Editing nomination which ‘All Quiet’ does not. Sound and Editing often go hand in hand and every Editing winner has also had a win in Sound since 2013 and that trend shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.

Nominees:

Top Gun: Maverick – MPSE, CAS

All Quiet on the Western Front – MPSE, BAFTA

Elvis – MPSE

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Pick: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

In the last 10 years, every film that has won both the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in Original Song have also won the corresponding Oscar. This year RRR has won both awards and while Lady Gaga and Rihanna are very big names it has to compete with, there is a strong enough push to award the Tollywood track and I think it should be able to prevail.

Nominees:

RRR – “Naatu Naatu” – GG, CCA

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – “Lift Me Up”

Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand”

Everything Everywhere All at Once – “This is a Life”

Tell Me Like a Woman – “Applause”

Pick: RRR

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

This one is incredibly tight. Babylon won the Golden Globe, All Quiet on the Western Front took the BAFTA, and Tar, which was not even nominated here, won at Critics Choice. A stat working against Babylon is that every Original Score winner in the last 15 years was also nominated for Best Picture except for two (Soul and the Hateful Eight). And both Soul and The Hateful Eight swept BAFTA, CCA, and GG before going on to win the Oscar. While Babylon is definitely the score I prefer, Volker Bertelmann’s work on ‘All Quiet’ is a very good companion piece that lines up better with the Academy’s tastes. Watch out for John Williams’ work on The Fabelmans or Son Lux’s work on “Everything Everywhere All at Once” as possible upsets. John Williams is the greatest living composer on his last score and while I think he needed at least one precursor to win like Ennio Morricone did back in 2016, it still is possible.

Nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA

Babylon – GG

The Fabelmans

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Banshees of Inisherin

Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

March 10, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This is one of those categories that you really can’t overthink. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has won every single major precursor in this category and will be winning this Oscar as well. It will be the third Oscar of his career. I feel like this year sneakily had one of the best animated feature slates of the last few years. ‘Pinocchio’, ‘Marcel’, and ‘Puss’ all are some of the top 15 films of the year and are all fantastic in their own right.

Nominees:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – GG, BAFTA, PGA, Annie, CCA

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Annie (Indie)

Turning Red

The Sea Beast

Pick: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

This one seems pretty obvious. All Quiet on the Western Front is the only Best Picture nominee of the bunch and is a serious contender in multiple other categories as well; it has this in the bag.

Nominees:

All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA (Best Film as well)

Argentina, 1985 – GG

Close

The Quiet Girl

EO

Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

No winner in this category in the past seven years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and a win in one of the genre documentary categories at the Critics Choice Awards, and the only nominees that fit that criteria is Navalny and Fire of Love. The Academy has also shown a bias against films composed mostly of archival material in this category which hurts Fire of Love and gives the edge to Navalny, which feels like exactly the type of political documentary the Academy likes to award here.

Nominees:

Navalny – PGA, BAFTA

Fire of Love – DGA, ACE

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

All That Breathes

The House Made of Splinters

Pick: Navalny

March 10, 2023
Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. While Le Pupille undoubtedly has the biggest names behind it since it’s a Disney+ short directed by Happy as Lazzaro director Alice Rohrwacher and produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron. My hesitation comes from it not having the emotional impact of usual winners in these short categories (it’s a fun and cute Christmas story about girls in a Catholic boarding school). An Irish Goodbye’s treatment of grief and family is often hilarious but also tugs at its audience’s heartstrings. Without Le Pupille’s immense pedigree, An Irish Goodbye is the clearly more affecting film and would be the clear winner. It is just that in small categories like the shorts, pedigrees do seem to carry greater weight. However, I am going to stick to my guns and go with An Irish Goodbye to take this.

Nominees:

An Irish Goodbye

Le Pupille

The Red Suitcase

Ivalu

Night Ride

Pick: An Irish Goodbye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

The campaign for Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse has been bigger than any other short in this category by far. However, My Year of Dicks and Ice Merchants have a pretty good chance at taking this. Both ‘The Boy’ and Ice Merchants are wintry heartfelt stories that are stunningly animated. As a result of their similarity, I think My Year of Dicks, a short that combines a variety of animation styles to tell the story of a group of girls’ quest to lose their virginities, could prevail. However, I am going to stay safe and stick with the favorite.

Nominees:

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

My Year of Dicks

Ice Merchants

An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I think I Believe It

The Flying Sailor

Pick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Elephant Whisperers has the biggest campaign behind it with it being backed by Netflix. Films centered around animals also often do well with the documentary branches (as shown by the success of films like My Octopus Teacher). However, Stranger at the Gate, executive produced by Malala Yousafzai, fits the mold of recent winners in these short categories as it is about a U.S. Marine who comes face-to-face with a group of Muslims after setting out to commit an act of terror on a mosque. It fits the mold of something like Two Distant Strangers, Skin, and The Long Goodbye, all films that have won in these short categories in the past few years. Malala being an executive producer is probably the biggest co-sign a film like this could get so I think it will win. Also watch out for Haulout as a dark horse pick here.

Nominees:

Stranger at the Gate

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Pick: Stranger at the Gate

March 6, 2023
Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The last 10 winners in this category (Dune, Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in either an above-the-line category or Production Design (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). They also are all generally critically-acclaimed (all boasting scores above 60 on Metacritic). Additionally, they are not sequels (Blade Runner 2049 is the only exception yet the Oscars clearly see the Blade Runner films as more “elevated” than something like Marvel or Star Wars). As Avatar: The Way of Water and its predecessor were both nominated for Best Picture, we can safely assume that the Academy considers the film to be “elevated” entertainment as well. This category is an absolute no-brainer since Avatar: The Way of the Water has had this in the bag basically since it was conceptualized.

Nominees:

Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA, BAFTA, VES (9x)

Top Gun: Maverick

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

All Quiet on the Western Front

Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

2022 – Dune – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG

2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Babylon won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. The one thing that gives me pause about Babylon’s chances is that all these movies were Best Picture nominees in their respective years while Chazelle’s film is not. Still, the film clearly has support and this kind of ode to old Hollywood is exactly the kind of film the Academy adores in this category (see: Mank). SDSA winner Elvis has a chance but Babylon should take this.

Nominees:

Babylon – CCA, ADG, BAFTA

Elvis – SDSA

Avatar: The Way of the Water

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Fabelmans

Pick: Babylon

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

2022 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA

2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

The last five winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Austin Butler in Elvis fits this trend and even though I don’t think Butler will win Best Actor, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Bombshell, and Vice all won without their nominated performers winning an acting category.

Nominees:

Elvis – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA

The Whale – MUAH

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – MUAH

The Batman

Babylon

Pick: Elvis

March 2, 2023