06 Mar Final 2022 Oscar Predictions: Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Short
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
How I hate to predict these categories. The most unpredictable and, frankly, confounding categories at the Oscars are undoubtedly the shorts. While Le Pupille undoubtedly has the biggest names behind it since it’s a Disney+ short directed by Happy as Lazzaro director Alice Rohrwacher and produced by 4-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuaron. My hesitation comes from it not having the emotional impact of usual winners in these short categories (it’s a fun and cute Christmas story about girls in a Catholic boarding school). An Irish Goodbye’s treatment of grief and family is often hilarious but also tugs at its audience’s heartstrings. Without Le Pupille’s immense pedigree, An Irish Goodbye is the clearly more affecting film and would be the clear winner. It is just that in small categories like the shorts, pedigrees do seem to carry greater weight. However, I am going to stick to my guns and go with An Irish Goodbye to take this.
Nominees:
An Irish Goodbye
Le Pupille
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Night Ride
Pick: An Irish Goodbye
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The campaign for Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse has been bigger than any other short in this category by far. However, My Year of Dicks and Ice Merchants have a pretty good chance at taking this. Both ‘The Boy’ and Ice Merchants are wintry heartfelt stories that are stunningly animated. As a result of their similarity, I think My Year of Dicks, a short that combines a variety of animation styles to tell the story of a group of girls’ quest to lose their virginities, could prevail. However, I am going to stay safe and stick with the favorite.
Nominees:
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I think I Believe It
The Flying Sailor
Pick: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers has the biggest campaign behind it with it being backed by Netflix. Films centered around animals also often do well with the documentary branches (as shown by the success of films like My Octopus Teacher). However, Stranger at the Gate, executive produced by Malala Yousafzai, fits the mold of recent winners in these short categories as it is about a U.S. Marine who comes face-to-face with a group of Muslims after setting out to commit an act of terror on a mosque. It fits the mold of something like Two Distant Strangers, Skin, and The Long Goodbye, all films that have won in these short categories in the past few years. Malala being an executive producer is probably the biggest co-sign a film like this could get so I think it will win. Also watch out for Haulout as a dark horse pick here.
Nominees:
Stranger at the Gate
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Pick: Stranger at the Gate