02 Mar Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The last 10 winners in this category (Dune, Tenet, 1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in either an above-the-line category or Production Design (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). They also are all generally critically-acclaimed (all boasting scores above 60 on Metacritic). Additionally, they are not sequels (Blade Runner 2049 is the only exception yet the Oscars clearly see the Blade Runner films as more “elevated” than something like Marvel or Star Wars). As Avatar: The Way of Water and its predecessor were both nominated for Best Picture, we can safely assume that the Academy considers the film to be “elevated” entertainment as well. This category is an absolute no-brainer since Avatar: The Way of the Water has had this in the bag basically since it was conceptualized.
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water – CCA, BAFTA, VES (9x)
Top Gun: Maverick
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
2022 – Dune – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2021 – Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG
2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG
2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG
2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG
As you can see from this list of the last seven winners in this category, CCA and ADG are incredibly important precursors here. This year, Babylon won BAFTA, CCA, and an ADG award so from a precursor perspective, it’s the obvious frontrunner. The one thing that gives me pause about Babylon’s chances is that all these movies were Best Picture nominees in their respective years while Chazelle’s film is not. Still, the film clearly has support and this kind of ode to old Hollywood is exactly the kind of film the Academy adores in this category (see: Mank). SDSA winner Elvis has a chance but Babylon should take this.
Nominees:
Babylon – CCA, ADG, BAFTA
Elvis – SDSA
Avatar: The Way of the Water
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
Pick: Babylon
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
2022 – The Eyes of Tammy Faye – BAFTA, CCA
2021 – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH
2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH
2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH
2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH
The last five winners in this category went to biopic films showcasing famous actors transforming physically into famous figures partly through a good deal of makeup and hairstyling. Austin Butler in Elvis fits this trend and even though I don’t think Butler will win Best Actor, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Bombshell, and Vice all won without their nominated performers winning an acting category.
Nominees:
Elvis – CCA, MUAH (3x), BAFTA
The Whale – MUAH
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – MUAH
The Batman
Babylon
Pick: Elvis