10 Mar Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Original And Adapted Screenplay
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Man, if what I think is going to happen here happens, Martin McDonagh is going to feel some very unfortunate deja vu. In 2018, McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri came into the Sunday night ceremony as a top-two Best Picture contender and was also expected to win Best Picture and Original Screenplay by many. Neither happened, and in Original Screenplay, McDonagh lost to Jordan Peele’s Get Out. This year, it looks like the Irish writer-director will once again to a genre-bending screenplay that captured the zeitgeist in unimaginable fashion. Everything Everywhere All at Once seems strong enough to take the trifecta of Picture, Director, and Screenplay and that will begin with a win here.
Everything Everywhere All at Once – CCA, WGA
The Banshees of Inisherin– BAFTA, GG
Triangle of Sadness
Pick: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
While “Women Talking” has won the most critics’ prizes, the Writers Guild Award, and the Critics Choice Award in this category, I can’t shake the idea that “All Quiet on the Western Front” is going to win here. No Screenplay winner in the 21st century so far has had an IMDb score less than 7.2 (“Gosford Park” in 2002). “Women Talking” has a score of 7.0 while “All Quiet on The Western Front” boasts a score of 7.8. Yes, the only major win “All Quiet on the Western Front” has is a BAFTA win, but “The Father” was able to win Adapted Screenplay in 2021 with just a BAFTA under its belt. Sarah Polley’s film is the safe pick, but I think I will go with “All Quiet on the Western Front” becoming the first non-English film to win Adapted Screenplay.
All Quiet on the Western Front – BAFTA
Women Talking – WGA, USC, CCA
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Top Gun: Maverick
Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front