10 Mar Final 2023 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories
Paul Mescal’s vulnerable, emotionally complex work in Aftersun was one of the best performances of last year’s films. That said, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser are the two biggest contenders here, having each already received two major awards. While Fraser could win, the adoration that he has accrued in the United States isn’t as prevalent outside of the country, and the Academy has expanded more globally in the last few years. As a result, Austin Butler is the most probable contender for the award, especially since his performance fits the trend of past young biopic winners such as Eddie Redmayne and Rami Malek. Also, the last eight of the winners in this category won at BAFTA first and 7 of the eight won a Golden Globe as well. They are the two most predictive precursors of the four and Austin Butler has both.
Austin Butler – Elvis – GG, BAFTA
Brendan Fraser – The Whale – CCA, SAG
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Pick: Austin Butler – Elvis
This may be the most competitive race of the night. Both Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett’s performances have received massive amounts of critical acclaim, popular recognition and industry support. Yeoh is in one of the biggest pop culture phenomenons of the year, but it’s one that will triumph in other categories as well, so voters may instead side with Blanchett here as it’s their best opportunity to recognize “Tar.” But I personally don’t see that happening and think that this was the year of Michelle Yeoh and as the face of the biggest film of the year, she will be winning her first Oscar. Could this be like the 2021 Best Actor race where Chadwick Boseman came in as the one with the most popular support yet the Academy went with BAFTA winner an industry legend Anthony Hopkins? I would say it could be but one essential difference is that Everything Everywhere All at Once is the clear Best Picture winner while Chadwick Boseman’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom wasn’t even nominated for Picture.
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, SAG
Cate Blanchett – Tar – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Pick: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Other than “Everything Everywhere All at Once” winning Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan winning Best Supporting Actor for his heartfelt and powerful work in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the most locked of the major categories. This year’s nominations slate in this category is great all-around, nominating phenomenal work like Brian Tyree Henry’s subtle, moving and emotionally honest turn in “Causeway”.
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once – GG, CCA, SAG
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Pick: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be my own bias, but it is very hard for me to see the Academy give a Marvel movie performance an Oscar, even if it is the legendary Angela Bassett, someone who deserves to have an Oscar, giving that performance. Jamie Lee Curtis’ performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once seems too slight to win an Oscar and while her Hsu could take it, her lack of precursor wins makes that very unlikely. That leaves Kerry Condon who won at BAFTA. I thought that maybe she won because “Banshees” would appeal to the British awards body more than it would to AMPAS but she was the critics’ leader for a reason and is many’s favorite part of what is one of the most beloved films of the year. Also with the predicted snub in Original Screenplay, individual members could choose Supporting Actress as the place where they want to award “Banshees”.
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin – BAFTA
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – GG, CCA
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once – SAG
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau – The Whale
Pick: Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin