05 Mar Final 2024 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories
BEST ACTOR
If Cillian Murphy hadn’t won SAG, this would be a very competitive category. But as it stands right now, CCA is the only major precursor where Murphy did not triumph. A beloved character actor for years, Murphy turns in one of the most acclaimed turns of the year in a biopic that also happens to soon be this year’s Best Picture winner. He has the narrative he needs and this is his time.
Nominees:
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer – GG, BAFTA, SAG
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers – CCA
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Bradley Cooper – Maestro
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Pick: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
BEST ACTRESS
The most difficult to predict of the acting categories, this race will come down to the two stones: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While Stone has won Best Actress at the BAFTAs and the Critics Choice Awards, Lily Gladstone won at the Screen Actors Guild, which is exactly what Michelle Yeoh had won when she won in this category last year. Stone is a previous winner as well (for La La Land), and the passion to award her likely won’t be as strong as it will be for Gladstone, who has already made history as the first Indigenous woman nominated in the category. Both are very worthy, though, so either way one of the best performances of the year will be awarded here. Interestingly, Yeoh, the first Asian actress to win Lead Actress, and Halle Berry, the first Black actress to win Lead Actress both won just SAG en route to their historic success. I think Gladstone will follow their example. It’s important to mention that Yeoh’s film was a Best Picture winner and Poor Things is a bigger BP contender than Killers of the Flower Moon is. But, at the same time, KOTFM will likely not win anywhere else while Poor Things has very strong chances elsewhere. If KOTFM gets completely snubbed, it will fall in the trend of Scorsese films racking up 10 nods and winning none (see: Gangs of New York and The Irishman).
Nominees:
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon – GG, SAG
Emma Stone – Poor Things – GG, CCA, BAFTA
Sandra Huller – Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Annette Bening – Nyad
Pick: Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. winning here is one of most locked wins of the night. He has won every major precursor leading up to now and has probably one of the best narratives any actor could want (young ingenue-troubled times-rebounds as massive blockbuster star-kills serious biopic role).
Nominees:
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Ryan Gosling – Barbie
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Pick: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’ Vine Joy Randolph has cleaned up practically every precursor here, even the minor ones. There is just no one even approaching her level this year.
Nominees:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Jodie Foster – Nyad
America Ferrara – Barbie
Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers