24 Apr FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories
While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG
Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Steven Yeun – Minari
Gary Oldman – Mank
Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?
While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.
Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG
Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah
Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA
2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA
2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA
2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA
2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA
2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA
Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.
Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari