FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director | Awards Insights
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FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

Oscar Shortlists for 9 Categories Released

FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director


2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.


Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG


Promising Young Woman – WGA

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Father

Sound of Metal


Pick: Nomadland


This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.


Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

David Fincher – Mank

Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland