24 Apr FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director
BEST PICTURE
2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA
2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA
2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA
2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA
2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA
2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA
2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA
2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA
2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA
2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA
2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA
Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.
Nominees:
Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG
Minari
Promising Young Woman – WGA
Judas and the Black Messiah
The Father
Sound of Metal
Mank
Pick: Nomadland
BEST DIRECTOR
This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.
Nominees:
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA
David Fincher – Mank
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland