18 Jan The Most Important Weekend In The Best Picture Race Is Here
Today, The Producers Guild Awards announces its winners for Best Theatrical Motion Picture.
PGA
Because the Producers Guild of America shares many of its members with the Academy we see a lot of crossover in their Best Picture winners. They also adopted the preferential ballot system the same year the Academy did and have been using it ever since.
Here are their last 10 winners:
- – indicates Best Picture win
2019 – Green Book*
2018 – The Shape of Water*
2017 – La La Land
2016 – The Big Short
2015 – Birdman*
2014 – 12 Years a Slave* and Gravity (TIE)
2013 – Argo*
2012 – The Artist*
2011 – The King’s Speech*
2010 – The Hurt Locker*
Onto this year’s nominees:
If presumed frontrunner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins this award it will win Best Picture at the Oscar. However, I smell a surprise brewing and I doubt that it will win the PGA. This is for two reasons, the film’s lack of an editing nomination at the Oscars and the Bruce Lee controversy during the fall. I think it might end up like Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri and get very close, but not win Best Picture. That film also lost the PGA to The Shape of Water.
So what will win, I think 1917 has the kind of broad support that could bring it to the top and its Golden Globe win and amazing box office came at the perfect time.
Jojo Rabbit (which I loved) and Joker have a few too many people that hate them to get the broad support that this award and Best Picture need. In the years before the preferential ballot these films would probably have better chances at getting the top prize at either of these awards bodies.
Parasite is a strange case. It has the broad support a film needs to win, but as an international film it has that “one-inch tall” barrier to break. Still, there is a lot that separates it from last year’s foreign-language Best Picture frontrunner. Roma. First and most importantly, Parasite is a lot more entertaining than Roma. While they both are expertly-crafted films with emotional impact, Parasite is more involving for the average movie lover. So essentially, if we see Parasite winning this, don’t be surprised.
The Irishman has mostly fizzled and Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, and Knives Out all have very outside chances to win (but there is always a possibility for anything).
SAG
Also this weekend is the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which used to be more predictive of Best Picture but still is a good indicator of the preferences of the Academy’s largest branch, the actor’s branch.
The Screen Actors Guild also shares many of its members with the academy, but has made some pretty outside choices since SAG became SAG-AFTRA in March 2012
Here are their winners since 2013:
- – indicates Best Picture winner
2019 – Black Panther
2018 – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
2017 – Hidden Figures
2016 – Spotlight*
2015 – Birdman*
2014 – American Hustle
2013 – Argo*
You can see every SAG winner here
I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite both have shots at winning the SAG ensemble. My prediction is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but unlike if it wins at PGA, a “Hollywood” win here won’t virtually guarantee a Best Picture win.
What SAG is more important in predicting is the acting categories at the Oscars. My predictions for those categories at SAG are the same as my predictions for those categories at the Oscars: Joaquin Phoenix for Best Actor, Renee Zellweger for Best Actress, Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor, and Laura Dern for Best Supporting Actress. If these four win their categories at SAG, they will are virtually locked for the Oscars.