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Early May Oscar Predictions

On Tuesday the Oscars broke their silence and followed the Golden Globes in allowing films debuting on streaming services to be considered for the year’s top prizes. They also announced that they would merge the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories together into one encompassing Best Sound category, which they previously had until 1982. With that news here are my Oscar predictions!

Mank, a film about the development behind Citizen Kane(!), seems to be the only movie that is without a doubt locked for an Oscar nomination. For all the other films you could make a case for why they wouldn’t be nominated.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is pretty much locked, but it could be just not up to par as Aaron Sorkin has had some misfires in the past.

West Side Story could be seen as an old story told much too many times and therefore could be seen as irrelevant to the current moment. But, because In the Heights was moved to 2021, there will not be any other big musical about a diverse community this year.

News of the World does not have any big names other than Tom Hanks and because of its genre, it’s a Western, it will not be nominated unless it’s outstanding on multiple levels.

Da 5 Bloods is the latest Spike Lee joint and while Spike’s films are usually hit-and-miss with the Academy, he has gained momentum from his win in 2019 for BlackKklansman and if his movie turns out good, Da 5 Bloods will be nominated.

Nomadland his Chloe Zhao’s follow-up from her 2017 critical darling, The Rider. Zhao is directing Marvel’s Eternals, which was moved from November to February 12^th of next year. So she has momentum on her side and if her film, starring Frances McDormand playing a woman who lives as a modern-day nomad after she loses everything in the Great Recession, is exceptionally good, it should transcend its indie status and be nominated.

Ammonite is also from a director who is coming off a critically-acclaimed 2017 film. Francis Lee, the director of God’s Own Country, is returning with a period piece starring Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan. Anything with Saoirse Ronan has to be considered a player and with Kate Winslet adding to the pedigree, this should be the period piece that makes into the field.

Hillbilly Elegy stars Amy Adams and Glenn Close in the story of a middle-class, Appalachian family. Ron Howard directed it, and while he can be a little iffy in terms of whether his films get nominations, the acting chops of Adams and Close should bring this movie an Oscar nod.

Stillwater’s genre (it’s a dramatic thriller) necessitates that the movie has to be amazing to be nominated. Only the thrillers that have significant dramatic heft (like Three Billboard Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, Captain Phillips, and Parasite) can get a Best Picture nomination. However, that seems likely as the film’s director has already won an Oscar for Best Picture winner Spotlight.

Because of all the post-production work that has to be done on Dune, it might not be finished in time for a release this year, but it probably will be and if Denis Villenueve is his usual self the film should be great. However, as a genre film it has to be beloved by critics and audiences to warrant a nomination. Still, there is usually one sci-fi film nominated every year (see: Black Panther, The Shape of Water, or Arrival) and Dune will be that movie, unless Tenet is absolutely amazing which it could very well be.

BEST PICTURE

Mank (Netflix)

Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

News of the World (Universal)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Ammonite (Neon)

Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

Stillwater (Focus)

Dune (If it is released, Tenet if it’s not) (Warner Bros.)

Could Jump In: Tenet (Warner Bros.), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), The French Dispatch (Searchlight), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Soul (Disney/Pixar), C’mon C’mon (A24), Minari (A24), Blonde (Netflix), Annette (Amazon), French Exit (Sony Classics), The Father (Sony Classics), The Midnight Sky (Netflix), I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Respect (MGM), Greyhound (Sony)

It’s crazy to think that the director of modern classics such as The Social Network, Fight Club, and Se7en hasn’t won an Oscar. Well, David Fincher is going back to the genre that almost got him his Oscar win (He almost won for The Social Network) with Mank, a film that chronicles Herman J. Mankiewicz’s development of the script for Citizen Kane. I don’t see anybody else winning this unless their film turns out to be an out-and-out Best Picture frontrunner. Lee, Sorkin, and Nolan all could easily jump into a nomination as well and if either of their films become frontrunners they will be frontrunners in this race as well.

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher – Mank

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Paul Greengrass – News of the World

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Denis Villenueve – Dune (if released this year, Spike Lee otherwise)

Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Leos Carax – Annette, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

While I don’t think Gary Oldman will win Best Actor for Mank (because he won 3 years ago, but maybe he will pull a Mahershala Ali and win twice in a short timespan), I am pretty much sure he will earn a nomination. On the other hand, Bill Murray, if nominated, could win. It’s one of those situations where he will either not be nominated or will be a frontrunner. Tom Hanks seems like a safe choice but he has been snubbed too many times in the past (Captain Phillips and Saving Mr. Banks) to not be skeptical about his placement. Joaquin Phoenix always gives great performances and coming off his win last season he should ride that momentum to a nomination. Mike Mills, the director of C’mon C’mon, has had success with directing actors to Oscar success in the past (Christopher Plummer won Best Supporting Actor for Mills’ Beginners) so Phoenix should get a nomination.

Anthony Hopkins last won an Oscar in 1992 and the reviews he got out of Sundance for The Father were extraordinary. The film has been compared to Michael Haneke’s Amour, who’s Emmanuelle Riva was nominated for Best Actress at 85 years old and was the oldest to do so. Hopkins will be the oldest Best Actor nominee if nominated as he will be 83. However, Sundance films do not usually make big splashes in the Oscar race and Hopkins’ performance could be forgotten unless Sony Pictures Classics pushes him properly. Then we could see Hopkins up on the stage again.

Matt Damon and Adam Driver also have significant chances of making it in to the Oscar race. Matt Damon if Stillwater becomes a major player and Adam Driver because he’s Adam Driver.

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman – Mank

Bill Murray – On the Rocks

Tom Hanks – News of the World

Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Could Jump In: Matt Damon – Stillwater, Adam Driver – Annette, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Ansel Elgort – West Side Story, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Daniel Kaluuya – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky

This category was especially difficult to predict because only Kate Winslet, I think, is essentially locked for a nomination. She is in a period piece playing off Saoirse Ronan, so she should deliver a great performance. Frances McDormand is also pretty much locked, but there is a chance that she might just miss the cut come nominations morning.

The rest have cases against them being nominated. Michelle Pfeiffer has not been nominated for an Oscar since 1993 so she has the “overdue” and “comeback” narratives behind her. However, the movie she is starring in might be too strange for the Academy’s taste (It has a talking cat in it) and Pfeiffer and her film could be ignored.

Ana de Armas is playing Marilyn Monroe and while at first glance she seems like she could easily win for that role, the film’s director Andrew Dominik is making Blonde more experimentally and it might be too strange for the Academy’s taste.

Jennifer Hudson is playing Aretha Franklin in Respect and if the movie turns out really good she will be a major, major player in the race. However, as this is director Liesl Tommy’s first film there are a lot of question marks about whether or not she can pull off an Oscar-worthy film on her first try.

Amy Adams, Viola Davis, and Rachel Zegler have a high likelihood of getting nominations as well and they should absolutely not be counted out in this race.

BEST ACTRESS

Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Ana de Armas – Blonde

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Could Jump In: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Mila Kunis – Four Good Days, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Tom Burke is playing Orson Welles in Mank and if he does a great job I don’t see the Academy not giving him the Oscar. Still, he is not a widely-known actor and may not have as large of a role in the film as we think he’ll have.

David Strathairn has been a known character actor for years now and he is overdue for a second nomination and Nomadland should give him that opportunity. Still, we are not sure how big of a part he has in the film.

Out of the 3 Spike Lee narrative films that have received an Oscar nomination all of them have been nominated for an acting Oscar. Based on this trend, Chadwick Boseman will likely get a nomination for Da 5 Bloods because he has the greatest name-recognition of anyone in the cast and because Spike Lee is great at directing performances.

I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in The Trial of the Chicago 7 so I am going to cheat and put them both here. Someone from this stacked cast (also includes Mark Rylance, Frank Langella, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Jeremy Strong) will be nominated in this category for sure, we just have to see the film (or even a trailer) to see who it will be.

Jesse Plemons in I’m Thinking of Ending Things is a slightly outside choice and he could be replaced by another actor from The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Mank, but I’m going to keep him here because every time Charlie Kaufman has been nominated for a Screenplay award (Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) one of the actors in the respective movie has been nominated.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Burke – Mank

David Strathairn – Nomadland

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Could Jump In: Matthias Schoenaerts – The Last Planet, Lucas Hedges – French Exit, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, LaKeith Stainfield – Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Marlon Wayans – Respect, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Benecio del Toro – The French Dispatch

This will be a battle between Ronan and Close that will last until much later in the Oscar season. Close has more of an overdue narrative than Ronan does, but will this be Close’s win? If Hillbilly Elegy becomes a top-5 player in the Best Picture race, Close is definitely winning this, but if not, the 26-year old, 4-time nominee Ronan will put up a real fight.

On the Rocks could be a major player but even if it’s only a second-tier contender, Sofia Coppola’s film should give Rashida Jones her first Oscar nomination. Still, Coppola’s films haven’t been in the Academy’s good graces since Lost in Translation, so Jones’ nomination here still is a risk to predict.

Abigail Breslin has not received an Oscar nomination since she was 10 years old (Little Miss Sunshine), but if Stillwater is excellent, Breslin and her co-star Matt Damon should be strong contenders for nominations. But the movie has to be an Oscar nominee or right on the cusp for Breslin to get a nomination.

Someone from Mank will probably get in here and between Amanda Seyfried or Lily Collins, Seyfried has more name-recognition and therefore will probably have the larger role. Ariana DeBose of West Side Story could take Seyfried’s place here if West Side Story is a larger player.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Claire Foy – Louis Wain, Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins, Olivia Colman – The Father, Lily Collins – Mank

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mank

The Trial of the Chicago 7

On the Rocks

Da 5 Bloods

Soul

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Ammonite, C’mon C’mon, Stillwater, Tenet, Annette, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Minari, Untitled Fred Hampton Project, Promising Young Woman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nomadland

News of the World

Hillbilly Elegy

Greyhound

Dune

Could Jump In: Those Who Wish Me Dead, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, West Side Story, Next Goal Wins, Zola, Passing, Respect, The Prom, After Yang

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul

How Do You Live?

Onward

Over the Moon

Where is Anne Frank?

Could Jump In: Connected, Scoob!, The Croods 2, Wolfwalker, Trolls: World Tour

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank

Dune

The French Dispatch

Tenet

West Side Story

Could Jump In: News of the World, Mulan, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Dune

Tenet

Hillbilly Elegy

Mank

West Side Story

Could Jump In: Nomadland, The French Dispatch, Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Mank

Dune

The French Dispatch

Ammonite

West Side Story

Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Emma, Last Night in Soho, Coming 2 America, Blonde

BEST FILM EDITING

Dune

News of the World

Mank

Da 5 Bloods

Tenet

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stillwater

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Mank

The Witches

Dune

Mulan

The French Dispatch

Could Jump In: Blonde, Wonder Woman 1984, The Trial of the Chicago 7, West Side Story, Ammonite

BEST SOUND

Tenet

Dune

Da 5 Bloods

Greyhound

West Side Story

Could Jump In: After Yang, No Time To Die, News of the World, Last Night in Soho

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Tenet

BIOS

Godzilla vs Kong

Wonder Woman 1984

Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Greyhound, Mulan, A Quiet Place Part 2, Venom 2

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune

Mank

Annette

Soul

Tenet

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite, BIOS, The Witches

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

No Time to Die

Annette

Soul

The Prom

Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, Respect

May 2, 2020
Expanded Oscar Predictions for Early March

You won’t see any major changes between this post and the last one except that I have added 11 more categories.

Here it is. Enjoy!

BEST PICTURE

The Trial of the Chicago 7

West Side Story

Mank

Hillbilly Elegy

The French Dispatch

News of the World

Dune

Nomadland

Da 5 Bloods

Nightmare Alley (Amsterdam, if it is released this year)

Could Jump In: Amsterdam, Tenet, Ammonite, The Last Duel, On the Rocks, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, In the Heights, Macbeth, Respect, Blonde, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, King Richard, Prisoner 760, Harry Haft, Greyhound, Next Goal Wins, Soul, Stillwater

Longer Shots: The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Father, The Many Saints of Newark, Rebecca, Annette, Mob Girl, Fonzo, Good Morning, Midnight, United States vs Billie Holiday, Flag Day, Untitled Darren Aronofsky Film, Minari, After Exile, Mulan

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher – Mank

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Others: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, David O. Russell – Amsterdam, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Charlie Kaufman – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Niki Caro – Mulan, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Joel Coen – Macbeth, Francis Lee – Ammonite

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman – Mank

Will Smith – King Richard

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Adam Driver – The Last Duel

Could Jump In: Tom Hanks – News of the World, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bill Murray (Likely is supporting), Christian Bale – Amsterdam, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Daniel Kaluuya – Jesus Was My Homeboy, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Anthony Ramos – In The Heights

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Could Jump In: Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Margot Robbie – Amsterdam, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Frances McDormand – Macbeth, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bill Murray – On the Rocks

Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley

Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7

David Strathairn – Nomadland

Tom Burke or Charles Dance – Mank

Could Jump In: Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tom Burke – Mank, Oscar Isaac – Dune, Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Giancarlo Esposito – Da 5 Bloods, Michael B. Jordan – Amsterdam, Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7, Peter Sarsgaard – Harry Haft, Matt Damon – The Last Duel, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley

Olivia Colman – The Father

Could Jump In: Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Annette Bening – Death on the Nile, Octavia Spencer – The Witches, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune, Vicky Krieps – Harry Haft

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

The French Dispatch

On The Rocks

Ammonite

Could Jump In: Tenet, Soul, Last Night in Soho, C’mon C’mon, Da 5 Bloods, Amsterdam, Next Goal Wins, Stillwater

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

West Side Story

News of the World

Hillbilly Elegy

Nomadland

Macbeth (if Macbeth does not release this year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things will take this spot)

Could Jump In: I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Those Who Wish Me Dead, In The Heights, Greyhound

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

West Side Story

Dune

Mank

Tenet

The French Dispatch

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Macbeth, C’mon C’mon, The Prom

BEST FILM EDITING

Tenet

Mank

West Side Story

Trial of the Chicago 7

Dune

Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Nightmare Alley, News of the World, The Last Duel, Nomadland, Amsterdam, Hillbilly Elegy

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

West Side Story

Dune

Mank

The French Dispatch

The Last Duel

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, Tenet, Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World, Ammonite, Mulan, In the Heights

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Mank

Dune

Ammonite

The French Dispatch

Nightmare Alley

Could Jump In: News of the World, West Side Story, The Last Duel, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hillbilly Elegy, Blonde, Death on the Nile

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dune

Mank

The French Dispatch

Ammonite

Soul

Could Jump In: Tenet, Nightmare Alley, Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Hillbilly Elegy, Nomadland, The Last Duel

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

In the Heights

No Time To Die

West Side Story

Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

Annette

Could Jump In: Soul, The Prom, Respect, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

The Witches

Mank

Dune

Mulan

Blonde

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Trial of the Chicago 7, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, News of the World

BEST SOUND MIXING

West Side Story

Dune

In the Heights

Tenet

Greyhound

Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, No Time to Die, Last Night in Soho, The Last Duel, A Quiet Place 2, Respect, After Yang

BEST SOUND EDITING

Tenet

Dune

Greyhound

No Time to Die

Da 5 Bloods

Could Jump In: West Side Story, In The Heights, News of the World, The Eternals, BIOS, Last Night in Soho, Top Gun: Maverick, After Yang

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Eternals

Tenet

Godzilla vs Kong

BIOS

Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, A Quiet Place Part 2, The Witches, Free Guy, Top Gun: Maverick, Greyhound

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul

How Do You Live?

Raya and the Last Dragon

Over the Moon

Connected

Could Jump In: Onward, Croods 2, Tom and Jerry, The One and Only Ivan, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Scoob!, The Willoughbys

March 10, 2020
Much-Too-Early 2021 Oscar Predictions!

With the end of one Oscar season, comes the beginning of the next and even though Oscar season will start in 6 months, why not try predicting a few of the contenders so we know what to look forward to.

Here are my 2021 Oscar predictions.

(Films are ordered in terms of their chance to win named award)

BEST PICTURE

The Trial of the Chicago 7

West Side Story

Mank

Hillbilly Elegy

The French Dispatch

News of the World

Dune

Nomadland

Da 5 Bloods

Nightmare Alley (Amsterdam, if it is released this year)

Could Jump In:

Amsterdam, Tenet, Ammonite, The Last Duel, On the Rocks, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, In the Heights, Macbeth, Respect, Blonde, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, King Richard, Prisoner 760, Harry Haft, Greyhound, Next Goal Wins, Soul, Stillwater

Longer Shots:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Father, The Many Saints of Newark, Rebecca, Annette, Mob Girl, Fonzo, Good Morning, Midnight, United States vs Billie Holiday, Flag Day, Untitled Darren Aronofsky Film, Minari, After Exile, Mulan

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher – Mank

Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Could Jump In:

Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Chloe Zhao – Nomadland, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, David O. Russell – Amsterdam, Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley, Charlie Kaufman – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Niki Caro – Mulan, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Joel Coen – Macbeth, Francis Lee – Ammonite

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman – Mank

Will Smith – King Richard

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

Adam Driver – The Last Duel

Could Jump In:

Tom Hanks – News of the World, Denzel Washington – Macbeth, Eddie Redmayne – Trial of the Chicago 7, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Bill Murray (Likely is supporting), Christian Bale – Amsterdam, Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley, Daniel Kaluuya – Jesus Was My Homeboy, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Anthony Ramos – In The Heights

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Could Jump In:

Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Margot Robbie – Amsterdam, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Frances McDormand – Macbeth, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bill Murray – On the Rocks

Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley

Mark Rylance – Trial of the Chicago 7

David Strathairn – Nomadland

Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch

Could Jump In:

Sacha Baron Cohen – Trial of the Chicago 7, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tom Burke – Mank, Oscar Isaac – Dune, Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Giancarlo Esposito – Da 5 Bloods, Michael B. Jordan – Amsterdam, Frank Langella – Trial of the Chicago 7, Peter Sarsgaard – Harry Haft, Matt Damon – The Last Duel

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley

Olivia Colman – The Father

Could Jump In:

Amanda Seyfried – Mank, Annette Bening – Death on the Nile, Octavia Spencer – The Witches, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Gaby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Rebecca Ferguson – Dune, Vicky Krieps – Harry Haft

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

The French Dispatch

On The Rocks

Ammonite

Could Jump In:

Tenet, Soul, Last Night in Soho, C’mon C’mon, Da 5 Bloods, Amsterdam, Next Goal Wins

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

West Side Story

News of the World

Hillbilly Elegy

Nomadland

Macbeth (if Macbeth does not release this year, I’m Thinking of Ending Things will take this spot)

Could Jump In:

I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Last Duel, Those Who Wish Me Dead, In The Heights, Greyhound

February 17, 2020
Pre-DGA Oscar Predictions

The Directors Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers, Cinema Audio Society, USC Scripter, and Annie awards will all be announced this weekend.

Now, these are very influential precursors in their respective categories, and could turn the tide (especially DGA) of the race.

Out of these precursors, the Directors Guild of America shares the most membership with the academy and if something like Parasite wins here, that film will pick up a little bit more steam on its road to Best Picture. Still, I predict Sam Mendes for 1917 winning here as his film seems like more of a “directing” film.

Here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1917

Parasite

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Marriage Story

Little Women

Ford v Ferrari

Three films, 1917, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, all have good chances of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. 1917 has PGA and Golden Globe, Parasite has SAG (not eligible for the Drama and Comedy Golden Globe categories as it is a foreign film), and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has CCA and Golden Globe. PGA is the most predictive of these precursors, which is why 1917 is the frontrunner. BAFTA should tell us who is not going to win Best Picture (Seriously, they’ve been 0 for 5 the last 5 years, even though they were 6 for 6 the years before that), while DGA and WGA should give us an indication of where the Academy could be leaning.

DIRECTOR

Sam Mendes – 1917

Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Todd Phillips – Joker

This award really comes down to DGA, if Bong Joon-Ho wins there he still has a chance to win Best Director at the Oscars (like Alejandro G. Inarittu for Birdman), but if he does not Sam Mendes will win. Mendes has the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice award (he tied with Bong Joon-Ho at CCA), so he is the frontrunner.

ACTOR

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

These acting categories are essentially set in stone as all four have won awards at the Golden Globes, CCA, and SAG. However, if BAFTA does something crazy their might be chance for movement.

ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Renee Zellweger is locked here, and I can not see her losing BAFTA

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes

Brad Pitt is going to sweep everything and win his first acting Oscar (he won for producing 12 Years a Slave).

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell

This will probably be Marriage Story’s only Oscar, and Laura Dern will win her first Oscar.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

1917

Knives Out

I think that Parasite is going to win WGA and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood BAFTA. And if this happens, Parasite winning Best Original Screenplay will probably mean it will win Best Picture as well.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Little Women

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

The Two Popes

This film usually has gone to films that will not win any other awards in other categories. The problem is that Little Women (maybe Costume Design), Jojo Rabbit, and The Irishman all look like that at this point. But since Little Women did win at CCA and has had a groundswell of support at the perfect time, it should win.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

Klaus

I Lost My Body

How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Toy Story 4 should win this even though Missing Link did surprise at the Golden Globes. Toy Story 4 did win PGA and CCA, which are better indicators. I think Klaus has more support than I Lost My Body and I believe it has a chance to be the dark horse in this race.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

Parasite

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the CCA for this category and Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh’s recreation of 1969 Los Angeles should be too much to turn down for Oscar voters.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

The Lighthouse

I can not see how anybody else other than 1917’s Roger Deakins can win this. Maybe Onc… no Deakins is getting his Oscar.

COSTUME DESIGN

Little Women

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women could both win this. Production and costume design usually go hand and hand at the Oscars (3 of the last 5 Oscars had the same winner in these categories), but this seems like 2017 when La La Land won Production Design and Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them won Costume Design. “Hollywood” has flashier costumes than La La Land did, but Little Women has the turn of the century period costumes that this branch loves.

FILM EDITING

Ford v Ferrari

Parasite

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

The Irishman

This branch loves quick cuts and films that you know will be high-adrenaline coming in to the theater. I believe that Ford v Ferrari will win BAFTA and then take this at the Oscars. But if Parasite or Joker wins BAFTA, the film that wins will probably win.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Bombshell

Joker

Judy

1917

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Bombshell should win this as it uses makeup well on multiple characters and not just one like Judy and Joker.

SOUND MIXING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Ad Astra

1917 or Ford v Ferrari have very high chances of winning the sound categories, which is why I think they will split them. I’m looking at 2017 when Hacksaw Ridge won Sound Mixing, but Arrival won Sound Editing. This year’s war film, 1917, should follow the same pattern and win Sound Mixing while Ford v Ferrari will win Sound Editing.

SOUND EDITING

Ford v Ferrari

1917

Joker

Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

The Irishman

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

1917

The Lion King could follow The Jungle Book and win with its portrayal of photorealistic animals in a photorealistic environment. Avengers: Endgame or The Irishman could also win this.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Joker

1917

Little Women

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Marriage Story

Hildur Guonadottir should win her first Oscar on her first nomination for her haunting work on Joker as she has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards. Still, this is Thomas Newman’s fifteenth Oscar nomination, and he has not ever won. Is soaring score for 1917 could give him the win.

ORIGINAL SONG

Rocketman

Harriet

Frozen 2

Breakthrough

Toy Story 4

Rocketman has won the Golden Globe and CCA awards in this category and is showing no signs of stopping.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

American Factory

Honeyland

For Sama

The Cave

The Edge of Democracy

While American Factory is the frontrunner, Honeyland and For Sama pose very realistic threats. I think For Sama actually has a better chance than what most are thinking, but its lack of DGA and CCA nominations is slightly troubling.

ANIMATED SHORT

Hair Love

Kitbull

Sister

Daughter (Dcera)

Memorable

I saw and Kitbull and Hair Love and even though Kitbull is a Pixar product, Kitbull was too simple for me. It was a great short film, but Hair Love had multiple layers and that created a more emotional reaction.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

In the Absence

St. Louis Superman

Walk Run Cha-Cha

Life Overtakes Me

LIVE-ACTION SHORT

Brotherhood

Nefta Football Club

A Sister

The Neighbor’s Window

Saria

You can watch the shorts here:

January 25, 2020
FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions

The time has come. After months of speculation the Oscar nominations will be released on Monday.

Here are my predictions:

BEST PICTURE

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

The Irishman

1917

Marriage Story

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

Ford v Ferrari

Could Jump In: The Two Popes, The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, 1917, Marriage Story, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Ford v Ferrari are the films that got both Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild nominations. In the past 4 years, only two films have not received a Best Picture nomination after getting those two notices, The Big Sick and Sicario. The Big Sick was mainly a comedy and the Academy does have a bias against that genre of film. Sicario was an action-thriller and would have probably been nominated if Mad Max: Fury Road, the superior action-thriller, had not been released in the same year.

Little Women received enough support from BAFTA and a PGA nomination showing that it has enough support to get a nomination. Now, Ford v Ferrari is in the 9th spot and I believe it could get realistically switched out with The Two Popes. The Two Popes seems like a film that Oscar voters loved and that could push it into the field. However, Ford v Ferrari got both a Critics Choice nomination and a PGA nomination so its support seems widespread. Also, if The Two Popes were to receive a Best Picture nomination it would be the third Netflix film to do so this year. And streaming-bias is still very much alive among the Hollywood elite so this outcome is unlikely.

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Sam Mendes -1917

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Greta Gerwig – Little Women

Could Jump In: Todd Phillips – Joker, Taika Waititi, Noah Baumbach

Bong Joon-Ho, Quentin Tarantino, Sam Mendes, and Martin Scorsese seem to be guaranteed a spot in this field because of their nominations at most major awards precursor, but there is a chance that one of them (I think Scorsese) might be snubbed.

Little Women has received the support it has needed at the correct time and because of that, Gerwig could deservedly get her second Best Director nomination (Becoming the first woman ever to do that). The Academy has undoubtedly heard the public outcry over the lack of female directors and will hopefully respond by acknowledging this great film and its great director. Todd Phillips seems like the more obvious choice to take the 5^th spot in this race, but his lack of a Directors Guild nomination coupled with the Academy likely viewing him as a comedy director (as they did with Peter Farrelly who did not get nominated in Best Director even though his film Green Book eventually won Best Picture) might keep on the sidelines for this race.

BEST ACTOR

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Taron Egerton – Rocketman

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Could Jump In: Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name

Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio have all received nominations from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild, but while Driver and Phoenix seem very secure, DiCaprio’s lack of success at the Golden Globes makes him very snubbable.

Taron Egerton had the perfect push at the perfect time with his Golden Globe award and BAFTA nomination and seems to be mostly secured in the race. Antonio Banderas, however, has not found the same success at the major awards as he has only a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nomination, but his beautiful performance should be able to carry its weight into this category. There is usually one actor who gets nominated for the SAG award and not the Oscar and that seems to be Christian Bale, who did not get the BAFTA nomination that would have secured his place in the race. The person who did get that BAFTA nom was Jonathan Pryce who could get be a spoiler come Monday.

BEST ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Saoirse Ronan – Little Women

Could Jump In: Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Awkwafina – The Farewell

Renee Zellweger, ScarJo, and Charlize Theron all received BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice award nominations. Erivo and Ronan each missed one of those (Erivo missed BAFTA and Ronan missed SAG) making them vulnerable for their spots to be taken by Nyong’o who has been racking up second-tier precursor awards left and right. But the fact that Nyong’o’s performance is in a horror movie that she will likely be the sole nomination of diminishes her chances.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy

Brad Pitt, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, and Tom Hanks have all received the Big 4 Oscar precursors (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice), but Tom Hanks has had similar scenarios play out with him failing getting an Oscar nomination (Case in point his performances in Saving Mr. Banks, Captain Phillips, which was an especially egregious omission, and Sully).

Parasite is getting so much love from both film critics and movie buffs alike. Song Kang-Ho should be able to ride that wave of support on his way to a nomination, but if he doesn’t, look for Anthony Hopkins to earn a spot. Hopkins has nabbed three (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes) of the Big 4 precursors, while Song has 0.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Could Jump In: Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

Laura Dern and Margot Robbie are the two actresses with the Big 4 precursors in this category and are secure for nominations. Jennifer Lopez didn’t get BAFTA but that was likely a major outlier, so she should be secure as well. Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh each received two of the Big 4 precursors, but Zhao Shuzhen could get in for the kind of performance that the Academy loves. If Johansson gets a nomination here and in Best Actress she would be the first actor to get a nomination in two categories since Cate Blanchett at the 2008 Oscars, which would be the Oscars way of saying sorry for not nominating her for anything, ever (even Lost in Translation!).

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story

Parasite

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Knives Out

1917

Could Jump In: Booksmart, The Farewell

Marriage Story and Parasite have received all Big 4 writing precursors (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and Writers’ Guild of America (WGA)) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would have most likely hit the WGA if Quentin Tarantino was a member of the Writers’ Guild.

Where it gets confusing is the last two spots, Knives Out, 1917, Booksmart, or The Farewell could take these two spots. Knives Out seems more likely than the others as it is an on-the-bubble Best Picture nomination contender where the script is an enormous part of the film’s appeal (I think Knives Out is great, by the way). Now for the last spot, I decided to choose the film with the best Best Picture chances which was 1917. While 1917 is a war film and that genre of film does not usually get screenplay nominations (see: Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge), it got a WGA nomination. Booksmart got both a WGA nomination and a BAFTA nomination so it would probably get an Oscar original screenplay nomination as well if it wasn’t for its lackluster box office performance and lack of presence whatsoever in the Best Picture race. People are pointing to Bridesmaids as a female-fronted comedy that got an original screenplay nomination at the Oscars, but that film had some exposure in the Best Picture conversation (It got both a SAG and PGA nomination), which Booksmart does not. The Farewell could get in as a spoiler, but just doesn’t seem to have enough people talking about it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

The Two Popes

Joker

Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

This is one of the most secure categories at the Oscars this year. However, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood still has a chance to shock.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 4

Missing Link

Frozen 2

I Lost My Body

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Could Jump In: Klaus, Abominable

This is pretty much locked, but Klaus or Abominable could replace I Lost My Body or How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Could Jump In: Parasite, Little Women

I could see Jojo Rabbit or Joker dropping out to make way for Parasite. Even though Parasite is set in a contemporary time period, which could be detrimental in this category, a whole village was created for the film.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

Ford v Ferrari

Could Jump In: The Lighthouse, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

I really want to put The Lighthouse in the top 5, but all of the other films that have done amazing at the cinematography precursors are legitimate Best Picture nomination contenders. I also don’t think the Oscars believe that they have to give The Lighthouse a nomination here. The last two times Best Cinematography was a film’s only Oscar nomination were the films Prisoners and Silence. The former was because Prisoners was shot by the GOAT Roger Deakins and the latter was because Silence was directed by Martin Scorsese and Best Cinematography was the best place to give it a nomination.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Little Women

Rocketman

Dolemite is My Name

Jojo Rabbit

Could Jump In: The Irishman, Downtown Abbey

This is a mostly fixed category with The Irishman’s Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner) poised for an upset.

BEST EDITING

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Parasite

Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit, 1917

If a movie wants to win Best Picture they have to have a nomination here (unless you are 1917 in which case you don’t have to because 1917 was made to look like it wasn’t edited). Jojo Rabbit could get a nomination instead of Parasite or Joker.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Bombshell

Joker

Rocketman

Judy

Dolemite is My Name

Could Jump In: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is the first year that this category is five nominations (it has been three nominations most years) and with that change comes a different kind of uncertainty that we don’t have in any other category. We don’t have a full idea of what this branch likes and doesn’t like.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Rocketman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joker

Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could jump in pretty easily here and it would have if there weren’t so many movies in the Best Picture conversation in this category.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Rocketman

The real question in many of these technical categories is whether The Academy will lean more toward Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker or Avengers: Endgame.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Irishman

1917

Could Jump In: Alita: Battle Angel, Gemini Man, Terminator: Dark Fate

Like I said before they could knock out either Star Wars or Avengers. Alita has a good chance of taking 1917’s 5^th spot.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1917

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit

This category also seems pretty much locked with Jojo Rabbit, Us, or Pain and Glory maybe making a move into the fray.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Frozen 2

Rocketman

Harriet

The Lion King

Wild Rose

Could Jump In: Toy Story 4, Breakthrough, Parasite

The first four have all been nominated for a Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe award. Wild Rose seems like it can be that less-known that everybody is looking up on Monday.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

For Sama

American Factory

Apollo 11

Honeyland

One Child Nation

Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm

I’ve seen that many other pundits have been saying that Apollo 11 could get snubbed like Won’t You Be My Neighbor (last year’s frontrunner) did last year. I’m not predicting that, but I can see it happening.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Parasite

Pain and Glory

Les Miserables

Atlantics

Those Who Remained

Could Jump In: Beanpole, Corpus Christi

Parasite is going to win this and the first three are going to get a nomination. There is usually one Holocaust-related film in the mix, this year Those Who Remained and Corpus Christi are those films. Those Who Remained is a more easily-digestible film (if there is such a Holocaust film) and therefore has a better chance of getting a nomination.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Hair Love

Kitbull

The Physics of Sorrow

Hors Piste

Mind My Mind

Could Jump In: Daughter, Sister, Memorable

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Learning To Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re A Girl)

Fire in Paradise

St. Louis Superman

Stay Close

In the Absence

Could Jump In: Walk Run Cha-Cha, After Maria, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Brotherhood

Little Hands

Neighbors’ Window

Refugee

Nefta Football Club

Could Jump In: A Sister, Miller and Son

January 12, 2020
Christmas Oscar Predictions

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Here is my Christmas present to you all:

BEST PICTURE

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

1917

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Ford v Ferrari

Bombshell

Could Jump In: Little Women, The Farewell, The Two Popes, Richard Jewell, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory

Like in Best Picture, The Irishman, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all have a very realistic chance of winning Best Director. Martin Scorsese recently said that The Irishman could be his last film and the Academy could award one of the greatest directors of all time a second Best Director prize (after his long-awaited one for The Departed) to close off his career. Quentin Tarantino has maintained for years that it’s his plan to make 10 original films and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would be his 9th. Quentin Tarantino is also one of the foremost directors of the modern era and he has never won a Best Director Oscar (He has won 2 Oscars for Best Original Screenplay for Pulp Fiction and Django Unchained).

Finally, Bong Joon-Ho has in many opinions, the best film of the year and a film that could easily factor into the top 10 of many-a-critic’s best-of-decade lists. Parasite has a lot of love and could very realistically win Best Picture, but it could follow in the footsteps of Roma and lose out on that coveted award while still winning Best Director. Out of the last 10 Best Director winners, 7 of them have been from non-English-speaking countries, while only 3 of these 7 directors’ films went on to win Best Picture. As of right now, Bong Joon-Ho and Parasite are likely to continue this trend. The other spots are mostly locked for Mendes and Baumbach

BEST DIRECTOR

Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite

Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Martin Scorsese – The Irishman

Sam Mendes – 1917

Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story

Could Jump In: Greta Gerwig – Little Women, Todd Phillips – Joker, Pedro Almodovar – Pain and Glory, James Mangold – Ford v Ferrari

Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix are the only actors that are secure for a nomination with both having a chance for a win. The other 3 spots could be filled by any 8 actors that all have a realistic chance of jumping into the fray. But there really are 5 other actors that could jump into the list: Leonardo DiCaprio, Antonio Banderas, Christian Bale, Taron Egerton, and Eddie Murphy. I also don’t think Christian Bale and Taron Egerton can be on the same ballot nor can Antonio Banderas and Eddie Murphy. The latter is because of the unfortunate “diversity pick”. Hopefully, this will change as the Academy is becoming more diverse but historically there is usually only one non-White performer in an acting category.

BEST ACTOR

Adam Driver – Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory

Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari

Could Jump in: Taron Egerton – Rocketman, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Robert De Niro – The Irishman, Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

With the lackluster performance of Little Women so far this awards season, Saoirse Ronan drops out of the 5, while Lupita Nyong’o, the critics’ leader in the Best Actress race, comes in. While there is an obvious stigma against the horror genre, case in point Toni Colette not getting an Oscar nomination even though she was last year’s Best Actress critics leader for her role in Hereditary, Nyong’o has received a SAG nomination which is already better than Colette. Still, if Nyong’o suffers genre bias, Ronan will probably enter the final five.

BEST ACTRESS

Renee Zellweger – Judy

Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story

Charlize Theron – Bombshell

Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

Lupita Nyong’o – Us

Could Jump In: Saoirse Ronan – Little Women, Awkwafina – The Farewell

With the SAG ensemble nomination for Parasite, one of this film’s actors should get a nomination. Since he is his film’s only performer getting palpable recognition from various critics’ groups, Song Kang-Ho leaps into the race. Anthony Hopkins drops due to his film’s lack of momentum in the awards race and because the four other performers in the Best Supporting Actor race have nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild awards bodies, while Hopkins only has mentions from the former two. Brad Pitt is essentially a sure shot to win this award; he has never won an acting Oscar, he is a certifiable A-List movie star, and the critics’ leader in this category. Unless something absolutely ludicrous occurs, Pitt should be receiving a golden statue.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Joe Pesci – The Irishman

Al Pacino – The Irishman

Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Nieghborhood

Song Kang-Ho – Parasite

Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Alan Alda – Marriage Story, Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy, Sam Rockwell – Richard Jewell

Laura Dern should win this category with Jennifer Lopez her only realistic challenger at this point in the race. Even though The Farewell’s Oscar prospects seem to be diminishing, Zhao Shuzhen is sticking in the race for me. The Academy is becoming more diverse and that should help her attain a much-deserved nomination that might’ve not been hers 5, 10 years ago. With a SAG ensemble nomination for Jojo Rabbit, there should be an acting nomination for one of its wonderful cast members, but both Scarlett Johansson and Thomasin McKenzie delivered amazing performances in that film, which could cause splitting of votes. In the end, BAFTA historically provides the last piece of the puzzle, especially in this race.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern – Marriage Story

Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers

Margot Robbie – Bombshell

Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell

Florence Pugh – Little Women

Could Jump In: Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit, Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell, Annette Bening – The Report, Nicole Kidman – Bombshell

Any of these top 3 could win this award come Oscar night, but I believe that it really will come down to Marriage Story and Parasite. Marriage Story and Parasite are both battling out for the lead choice among the critics’ associations and both could translate into an Oscar win. Marriage Story has a better chance as an English-language film, but there is precedent for a foreign-language film winning Best Original Screenplay, Pedro Almodovar’s Talk to Her was the only such winner this century. However, when there is an international film that is an all-timer, it has almost always been nominated for Best Original Screenplay (see: Amour and A Separation). Onto the other contenders, if Bombshell becomes a major contender we should see Charles Randolph’s (Oscar winner for The Big Short) script get nominated as well. Nevertheless, this lineup seems pretty rigid.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Marriage Story

Parasite

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Farewell

Knives Out

Could Jump In: Bombshell, Uncut Gems, Pain and Glory

This category’s nominations are pretty much locked, unless A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood makes a surprise Best Picture run, but other than that moderately unlikely occurrence these are the films that should get nominated.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

The Two Popes

Joker

Little Women

Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

My picks here have stayed the same for a couple of months now, just a few changes in the order have been done.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 4

I Lost My Body

Frozen 2

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Missing Link

Could Jump In: Klaus, Weathering With You

While there is a case for the placement of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker here, the film’s middling reviews (that I don’t entirely agree with) probably keep it from getting any more than the Sound categories, Visual Effects, and Original Score for John Williams. The Academy also has an affinity for period films in this category, which is an umbrella that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, The Irishman, and Jojo Rabbit fall under. If Little Women has a late-breaking resurgence, which I think it will have, it will probably replace Jojo Rabbit in this category.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

1917

The Irishman

Parasite

Jojo Rabbit

Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Little Women, Joker, The Two Popes

Roger Deakins could deservedly win Best Cinematography for the work shown in the 1917 trailer alone and he probably will win his 2ndOscar for shooting the “one-take” war film. Ford v Ferrari and Portrait of a Lady on Fire both have a chance to jump in.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The Irishman

Joker

The Lighthouse

Could Jump In: Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, A Hidden Life

This is likely what the lineup will be with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood winning it easily.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Dolemite is My Name

Little Women

Downtown Abbey

Rocketman

Could Jump In: The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Judy

For a film to win Best Picture it has to be nominated here. The only time that wasn’t the case is with Birdman which was made to look like it wasn’t cut. War films usually do well in this category, but, like Birdman, this year’s war picture 1917 is made to look like it was all shot in one take. All the other films, excluding Ford v Ferrari, are top-tier Best Picture contenders that need a nomination in this category to cross the finish line on Oscar night.

BEST FILM EDITING

The Irishman

Ford v Ferrari

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

Could Jump In: 1917, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Uncut Gems, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker might fall out of this due to the only special makeup and hairstyling being on the title character, but if the Academy goes by past trends it will get the nomination.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Bombshell

Judy

Joker

Rocketman

Dolemite is My Name

Could Jump In: Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

An Oscar season’s war movie often gets the win in Sound Mixing (see: Hacksaw Ridge and Dunkirk), so I have 1917 winning. Musically-themed movies also do well in this category (see: Whiplash and Bohemian Rhapsody), so I have Rocketman getting a nomination.

BEST SOUND MIXING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Rocketman

Could Jump In: Joker, Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, The Irishman

War films and action films also do well in this category, so 1917 and Ford v Ferrari should be neck and neck here.

BEST SOUND EDITING

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Ad Astra, Rocketman, The Irishman

The Academy always seems to ignore the film with the enormous box office output in favor of the more “serious”, critically-acclaimed film. This year that film would seem to be The Irishman, however that film’s de-aging effects haven’t been universally praised and that might turn-off some voters. The Jungle Book won here 3 years ago and The Lion King could follow in its footsteps. I think that fans of big-budget blockbusters in the Academy could split between Endgame and The Rise of Skywalker, which could open the path for The Lion King to take this prize. While 1917 seems to be poised for a nomination, Alita: Battle Angel should get in for the narrative that it has “groundbreaking” visual effects, the same could happen for Gemini Man.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Lion King

Avengers: Endgame

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Irishman

Alita: Battle Angel

Could Jump In: 1917, Gemini Man

Thomas Newman has to win! He has had 14 nominations without any wins and his score for 1917 has been getting a lot of positive attention, so he has a real chance. All the other scores seem to be mostly secure. Nevertheless, this category is extremely prone to surprises (The “First Man getting SNUBBED last year” kind of surprises).

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1917

Joker

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Marriage Story

Little Women

Could Jump In: Ford v Ferrari, Us, Motherless Brooklyn

The Lion King and Breakthrough (I’m not going to do a “Breakthrough breaking into” pun, you’re safe) could easily penetrate this lineup with Toy Story 4 and Wild Rose both susceptible to being dropped.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Frozen 2

Rocketman

Harriet

Wild Rose

Toy Story 4

Could Jump In: The Lion King, Breakthrough, Aladdin

Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm, and The Cave could all break into the fray with all of these films, even Apollo 11, in danger of dropping out. This category is extremely unpredictable with perceived unbeatable frontrunners, such as last year’s Won’t You Be My Neighbor, not even getting a nomination.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Apollo 11

For Sama

American Factory

One Child Nation

Honeyland

Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm, The Cave, Midnight Family

I don’t think anybody realistically thinks that Parasite is going to lose out on this prize, unless they believe this scenario will occur. Oscar voters vote for dark horse contenders because they believe all the other voters are going to choose Parasite.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Parasite

Pain and Glory

Les Miserables

Atlantics

Beanpole

Could Jump In: Corpus Christi, The Painted Bird, Honeyland, Truth and Justice, Those Who Remained

December 25, 2019
Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG (Mostly) Shape Best Picture Race

These precursors in conjunction with the American Film Institute Top 10 and the National Board of Review Top Films should bring the Best Picture race into clearer view. Let’s start with the Critics Choice Awards. Their track record with the Best Picture race is very good. Here is a rundown of its track record with the last 5 Best Picture nominees: 2019: 7 of 8 Best Picture Nominees, 2018: 8 of 9, 2017: 8 of 9, 2016: 8 of 8, 2015: 7 of 8.

This year’s Critics Choice nominations are: 1917, Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, Uncut Gems. So based on their track record 7 or 8 of these films will be nominated for Best Picture. Now, if you look at the pattern there is usually that one film that breaks into Best Picture that wasn’t nominated for a Critics Choice award. Last year it was Bohemian Rhapsody that got in due to its great Golden Globe performance, spectacular $900 million box office for a “serious” film, and a SAG Cast Nomination. The year before it was Phantom Thread, which got in due to it being a critical favorite, its quality per-theater-average concerning box office, the narrative that it was the swan song of legendary 3-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis, and its performance in certain critics’ awards including its inclusion in the National Board of Review’s Top Films. In 2017, Hidden Figures was this lucky film and it got in on its great box office, SAG Cast Nomination, and inclusion in NBR’s Top Films.

With all of this in mind it seems that all a film needs to get into Oscar Best Picture, if it hasn’t already been nominated for a Critics Choice Best Picture award, is box office success and success at a major precursor. Now the major contenders that weren’t nominated for a Critics Choice Award this year are: Bombshell, The Farewell, Richard Jewell, and The Two Popes.

Bombshell hasn’t released yet, but it received a SAG Cast nomination and 3 other nominations from SAG. It seems to be somewhat like last year’s Best Picture nominee Vice in the sense that it is a real-life political story with OK-to-good reviews and performances that are getting recognition (Vice received Oscar nominations for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, and Sam Rockwell).

The Farewell had box office success this summer on the indie circuit even though the film was mostly in Mandarin and the cast was full of relative unknowns, excluding Awkwafina. The film has seen success at various precursors but not at the volume I believe that it needs to be a Best Picture nominee. It still has to cross the barrier of it being a mostly-Mandarin film and even more there is already an East Asian-centric film (Parasite) that has a better chance of getting a Best Picture nomination (and maybe a win?). Knowing the Academy’s past track record with international releases it isn’t likely that two foreign-language films fill be on the Best Picture lineup, and it is less likely that two great works of Asian cinema will be featured on the same lineup. But I hope it happens, because The Farewell dfinitely deserves a nomination.

Now onto Richard Jewell. This film broke into the Oscar race when it won 2 National Board of Review awards and was included into NBR’s Top 10 Films list. However, it hasn’t done very much since then other than a surprise Supporting Actress nomination at the Golden Globes for Kathy Bates (which I predicted!, sorry 🙂 ). Coupled with its disappointing opening weekend box office performance, I don’t see the film getting a nomination at the Oscars other than maybe one for Kathy Bates.

Lastly, The Two Popes. I had this film about the Catholic Church in the thick of the Oscar race until late November when it failed to nab a position in the NBR or AFI Top 10 lists. Then it continued going down with its failure to get a Critics Choice nomination for Best Picture, but it has rebounded somewhat with a Best Film-Drama nomination at the Golden Globes. If the film wins any of the awards it is nominated for at the Golden Globes it will probably gain a Best Picture nomination, but both are not likely as of right now.

Now, all of this comes together to form my Best Picture predictions for today. I have to say that 3 films, The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Parasite, all have an extremely realistic chance of winning Best Picture.

Nevertheless, here are the predictions!

BEST PICTURE

The Irishman

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Marriage Story

1917

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Ford v Ferrari

Bombshell

Could Jump in: Little Women, The Farewell, The Two Popes, Richard Jewell

December 18, 2019