Awards Insights

Tag: oscar predictions

  • 2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions

    The New York Film Festival has released their Opening Night and Centerpiece films. These films usually have a decent track record at the Oscars as 3 of the last 5 Centerpiece picks went on to becoming Best Picture nominees. This year The Power of the Dog is the pick and as that film has also been confirmed for both Venice and Toronto as well, I think it probably has the best chance for a Best Picture nomination out of any other film this year so far. It and Nightmare Alley seem like the only films that could be declared locks at this point. The New York Film Festival’s Opening Night pick has reached the Best Picture slate twice in the last five years and while that might not seem like a great track record, two of their picks (13th and Lovers Rock) were ineligible for a BP nomination. The Tragedy of Macbeth is this year’s Opening Night film and if it is well-received I think it could very well be a lock.

    Both The French Dispatch and A Hero went to Cannes and both received good-to-great reviews from critics. I would feel more confident about their chances if they had received universal acclaim but I still think that they can get in if they are campaigned well. If A Hero is campaigned well I think it is a film that will play well with both critics and audiences and I might even be more confident in its chances than I am for The French Dispatch. The French Dispatch is an anthology film and, as a result, reviews have said that it does not have the same emotional resonance of Wes Anderson’s other work. However, I think the technical aspects of the film will garner enough passion and will probably help it carve out spot in the Best Picture slate. Searchlight is also probably the best studio when it comes to campaigning their films for Oscar attention and I have confidence in them and in Anderson’s good will in the industry.

    Anyway, here are my predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix)

    Could Jump In:

    Last Night in Soho (Focus)

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon, might be 2022)

    The Hand of God (Netflix)

    The Last Duel (20th Century)

    Tick, Tick…Boom! (Netflix)

    Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)

    A Journal for Jordan (Sony)

    Belfast (Focus)

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.)

    The Humans (A24)

    CODA (Apple+)

    The Harder They Fall (Netflix)

    The Worst Person in the World (Neon)

    The Card Counter (Focus)

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel)

    Flee (Neon)

    Respect (MGM)

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)

    King Richard (Warner Bros.)

    Blue Bayou (Focus)

    Red Rocket (A24)

    Passing (Netflix)

    Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)

    Cyrano (MGM)

    Mass (Bleecker Street)

    Spencer (Neon)

    The Green Knight (A24)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Asghar Farhadi – A Hero

    Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, Sian Heder – CODA

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Will Smith – King Richard, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – Annette, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Antonio Banderas – Official Competition

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year, she’s in), Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Haley Bennett – Cyrano, Tilda Swinton – Memoria, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – The Humans

    Jesse Plemmons – The Power of the Dog

    Al Pacino – House of Gucci

    Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Bradley Whiford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Judi Dench – Belfast

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Audra McDonald – Respect, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Rooney Mara – Nightmare AlleyMartha Plimpton – Mass, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    A Hero

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: The Whale, CODA, Red Rocket, The Card Counter, Mass, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    A Journal for Jordan

    Could Jump In: Dune, The Humans, The Last Duel, West Side Story, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    Encanto

    Apollo 10 1/2

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Belle

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, Belfast, House of Gucci

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Cyrano

    Cruella

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The tragedy of Macbeth

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Cruella

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Cyrano

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, The Suicide Squad, Eternals, West Side Story

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Don’t Look Up

    Eternals

    A Quiet Place Part II

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In The Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, No Time to Die

    BEST SCORE

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Luca, Spencer, No Time to Die

    BEST SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up

  • 2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

    2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

    The Best Picture field will expand to 10 next year instead of the sliding scale that we’ve seen since 2009 and that benefits films that would have otherwise just missed out on a nomination in Picture (think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami from this past season and The Two Popes from the year before). As a result of this expansion and the Academy’s increased openness to international cinema in recent years, I believe that at least one international film will break into the lineup. It’s also apparent that for an international director to get in to the field, they must already be acclaimed in some way – either with a film that has received major critical acclaim in the United States or with a film that has won the Best International Film Oscar. Asghar Farhadi has achieved both milestones as his A Separation is one of the most acclaimed films of the 2010s and won the Foreign-Language Film Oscar. His 2016 effort The Salesman also won in this category as well. His next film A Hero which will be premiering at Cannes in July should already be seen as a major frontrunner due to the Academy’s affinity with his work. Paolo Sorrentino’s new film The Hand of God should also be in contention as his 2013 film The Great Beauty is considered by many to be a masterpiece and won best Foreign Language Film. Also watch out for Decision to Leave from Oldboy director Park Chan-Wook and Madres Paralelas from Talk to Her and Pain and Glory director Pedro Almodovar.

    Theaters are slowly moving back to normal this year and that means that we can probably expect 1-2 bonafide studio blockbusters in the slate this year. Dune, Eternals, or even West Side Story could be the films that achieve the juggling act of being both highly critically-acclaimed and popular among general audiences. Speaking of West Side Story, this year sees the return of major musicals as In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Annette, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, Encanto, and Vivo are all set to be released this year. Of this group, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, and West Side Story seem like the ones with the best chance at breaking into the top 10. However, In the Heights underperformance at the box office definitely hurts its chances. If Tick, Tick…Boom ends up being critically-acclaimed, I could easily see it taking West Side Story’s place as this year’s musical nominee.

    There are also films from major auteurs and Oscar favorites this year. Films from Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Adam McKay, Denzel Washington, Aaron Sorkin, Chloe Zhao, David O. Russell, Edgar Wright, Darren Aronofsky, Clint Eastwood, Taika Waititi, Leos Carax, Pablo Larrain, and Paul Schrader are all set to come out this year and that is extremely exciting for me both as a Oscar prognosticator and as a movie fan.

    With that, here are my predictions for this month.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – December 3rd

    House of Gucci (MGM) – November 24th

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM) – November 26th

    The French Dispatch (Searchlight) – October 22nd

    Dune (Warner Bros.) – October 1st

    The Last Duel (20th Century) – October 15th

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) – 2021 (TBD)

    West Side Story (20th Century) – December 10th

    A Hero (Amazon) – July 2021 (Cannes)

    Could Jump In:

    Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    The Hand of God (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    A Journal for Jordan (Sony) – December 10th

    Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – TBD

    In the Heights (Warner Bros.) – June 11th

    CODA (Apple+) – August 13th

    Eternals (Disney/Marvel) – November 5th

    Blue Bayou (Focus) – September 17th

    Canterbury Glass (20th Century) – TBD

    The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.) – September 24th

    Last Night in Soho (Focus) – October 22nd

    The Card Counter (Focus) – September 10th

    Tick, Tick…Boom (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Respect (MGM) – August 13th

    The Whale (A24) – TBD

    Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) – TBD

    Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) – October 22nd

    Blonde (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    Spencer (Neon) – 2021 (TBD)

    Mass (Bleecker Street) – 2021 (TBD)

    Passing (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

    The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon) – 2021 (TBD)

    Decision to Leave – TBD

    Belfast (Focus) – November 12th

    The Humans (A24) – 2021 (TBD)

    Annette (Amazon) – July 7th (Cannes)

    C’mon C’mon (A24) – TBD

     

    As I mentioned previously there are many major filmmakers coming through with films this year and many, including all-time greats like Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, and Ridley Scott, are completely Oscarless. While that easily could be something that is rectified this year, I have a feeling that Jane Campion (who previously won Adapted Screenplay for The Piano) will become the second-ever female Best Director winner.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Ridley Scott – The Last Duel or House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Denis Villeneuve – Dune, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Jon M. Chu – In The Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Sian Heder – CODA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave

     

    The amount of biopic performances here is crazy (Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, and Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe to name a few) and I think that either a fictional character performance is going to end up surpassing all the biopic performances or one biopic performance is going to be from a top 4 Best Picture contender and end up prevailing. This category is also very deep and I think that the top 16 contenders I have listed all have a good chance of hitting the top 5.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Ana de Armas – Blonde, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Halle Berry – Bruised, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Melanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball

     

    While I could easily see Washington winning his thirs acting Oscar as Macbeth, Cumberbatch is playing a very menacing and unnerving character in The Power of the Dog and if the film becomes a top 4 Best Picture contender, he seems like he could definitely prevail. Like Best Actress, this category seems to be stacked as well and I think that the top 12 contenders I have listed here all have a great chance of receiving a nomination.

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God

     

    I have two actresses from Sundance indies in my predictions here and while that is unlikely to actually end up happening, both Negga and Dowd have generated lots of buzz for their respective performances. It remains to be seen if that buzz will be diminished by Oscar voting time. Jodie Comer has generated a lot of goodwill for her work on Killing Eve and that buzz could catapult her into an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win. Medieval-set movies don’t usually have very meaty roles for women but as Nicole Holofcener is credited as a writer (in addition to, of course, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck), I think Comer could have a lot to do.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Olga Merediz – In the Heights, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Judi Dench – Belfast, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Regina King – The Harder They Fall, Zoe Saldana – Canterbury Glass, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans

     

    Bradley Cooper is going to win an Oscar in the next 10 years as he’s been nominated for eight in the previous ten years. This year he has two performances in films from Guillermo del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson in contention and I think his performance in the latter film could leave an impression if it is more than a glorified cameo. I am particularly curious about how John David Washington’s performance will end up performing as Canterbury Glass seems like a movie that will be catered to the tastes of the Academy yet due to the controversy surrounding director David O. Russell, the amount of nominations it will receive will most likely be limited. I have been very conservative about its chances in my predictions, but it could very well end up like Bohemian Rhapsody which did not receive a Director nomination (its director Bryan Singer had quite a few sexual assault allegations) but received both a Picture and acting noms. If Canterbury Glass wades through the cloud surrounding Russell and makes it into Picture, it most likely will also receive acting nominations for any of Bale, Robbie, Washington, or Saldana, a cinematography nomination, and a nomination in Score.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Adam Driver – The Last Duel

    Al Pacino – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter, Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall, John David Washington – Canterbury Glass, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Colman Domingo – Zola, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Richard Jenkins – The Humans

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Being the Ricardos

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The Card Counter, The Whale, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God, CODA, Mass, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, C’mon C’mon

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    The Power of the Dog

    House of Gucci

    Nightmare Alley

    The Last Duel

    A Journal for Jordan

    Could Jump In: Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, Next Goal Wins, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, West Side Story, Dear Evan Hansen

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Flee

    Luca

    Encanto

    Apollo 10 1/2

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo, The Boss Baby 2, Peter Rabbit 2, Sing 2

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    House of Gucci

    The French Dispatch

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Cruella, West Side Story, Dune, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, Blonde, Canterbury Glass

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Canterbury Glass, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, House of Gucci, Annette, Blonde, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Dune

    Cruella

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Blonde, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Whale

     

    BEST EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth, A Journal for Jordan, The Card Counter, Cry Macho

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    West Side Story

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, Cruella, In the Heights, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Last Night in Soho, The Power of the Dog, Being the Ricardos, Canterbury Glass

     

    BEST SCORE

    The Power of the Dog

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The French Dispatch

    Don’t Look Up

    Could Jump In: Canterbury Glass, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Spencer, Annette, Luca, No Time to Die, Zola

     

    BEST SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Top Gun: Maverick

    Annette

    Respect

    Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Don’t Look Up, Defying Gravity, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cyrano, Vivo

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Don’t Look Up

    Eternals

    A Quiet Place Part II

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, The Green Knight, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Jungle Cruise, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, No Time to Die, Top Gun: Maverick

  • First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)

    Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.

    Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.

    Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.

    Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:

    BEST PICTURE

    Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)

    House of Gucci (MGM)

    Soggy Bottom (MGM)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)

    The Power of the Dog (Netflix)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Coda (Apple+)

    A Hero (Amazon)

    Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God

    Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

    Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

    Ridley Scott – House of Gucci

    Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

    Denis Villenueve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass

    BEST ACTOR

    Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

    Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Will Smith – King Richard

    Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

    Adam Driver – House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel

    BEST ACTRESS

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

    Kristen Stewart – Spencer

    Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

    Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

    Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

    Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

    Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom

    Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall

    Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)

    Ruth Negga – Passing

    Olga Merediz – In the Heights

    Marlee Matlin – CODA

    Ann Dowd – Mass

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Soggy Bottom

    Being the Ricardos

    Don’t Look Up

    The French Dispatch

    A Hero

    Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    House of Gucci

    The Power of the Dog

    Nightmare Alley

    A Journal for Jordan

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Encanto

    Luca

    The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    Apollo 10 1/2

    Flee

    Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Nightmare Alley

    Dune

    The French Dispatch

    House of Gucci

    Being the Ricardos

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Nightmare Alley

    The Power of the Dog

    West Side Story

    The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    House of Gucci

    Cyrano

    West Side Story

    Don’t Worry Darling

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Dune

    Don’t Look Up

    House of Gucci

    West Side Story

    Last Night in Soho

    Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Cyrano

    Being the Ricardos

    House of Gucci

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Eternals

    Top Gun: Maverick

    West Side Story

    A Quiet Place: Part II

    Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Eternals

    The Suicide Squad

    Spider-Man: No Way Home

    The Matrix 4

    Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

    Dune – Hans Zimmer

    Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat

    The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat

    Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell

    Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Encanto

    Dear Evan Hansen

    Tick, Tick…Boom

    Defying Gravity

    Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

  • Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Final Oscar Predictions 2021

    Well, it ends here. After my first set of predictions in March 2020 (where I picked The Trial of the Chicago 7 to win Best Picture) the Oscars have finally come.

    So, without further ado…

    Here are my FINAL predictions (with links to my explanations):

    BEST PICTURE: Nomadland

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Minari

    BEST DIRECTOR: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ACTOR: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    BEST ACTRESS: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Steal: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Promising Young Woman

    Could Steal: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Father

    Could Steal: Nomadland

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Soul

    Could Steal: Wolfwalkers

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Mank

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Nomadland

    Could Steal: Mank

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Emma.

    BEST EDITING: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Steal: Sound of Metal or Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Steal: Hillbilly Elegy or Pinocchio

    BEST SOUND: Sound of Metal

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Tenet

    Could Steal: The Midnight Sky

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Soul

    Could Steal: No one

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: One Night in Miami

    Could Steal: The Life Ahead or Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Another Round

    Could Steal: Collective or Quo Vadis, Aida?

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: My Octopus Teacher

    Could Steal: Time, Collective, or Crip Camp

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT: If Anything Happens I Love You

    Could Steal: Burrow

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Two Distant Strangers

    Could Steal: The Letter Room or Feeling Through

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: A Concerto is a Conversation

    Could Steal: A Love Song for Latasha, Colette, or Hunger Ward

     

    The Academy Awards will on Sunday, April 25th at 7 PM CT on ABC and streaming.

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture and Best Director

    BEST PICTURE

    2020 – Parasite – SAG, WGA

    2019 – Green Book – GG, PGA

    2018 – The Shape of Water – CCA, DGA, PGA

    2017 – Moonlight – GG, WGA

    2016 – Spotlight – SAG, CCA, WGA

    2015 – Birdman – SAG, DGA, PGA

    2014 – 12 Years a Slave – GG, BAFTA, CCA, PGA

    2013 – Argo – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    2012 – The Artist – GG, BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA

    2011 – The King’s Speech – BAFTA, SAG, DGA, PGA

    2010 – The Hurt Locker – BAFTA, CCA, DGA, PGA, WGA

    Yes, I know, Nomadland does not really seem like the type of film that wins Best Picture but let’s look at some stats. A film absolutely needs to win at least one of PGA (Nomadland won here), WGA (Promising Young Woman), or SAG (The Trial of the Chicago 7) to win Best Picture. If two of these are not won then the film needs at least one of GG, CCA, or DGA to win. These are the only ways films have won in the era of the preferential ballot and the only film that fits all of this criteria is Nomadland as it has won the GG, the CCA, and the DGA. The Trial of the Chicago seems like the traditional type of winner here but Nomadland has all the data behind it.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – GG, CCA, PGA, DGA, BAFTA

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – SAG

    Minari

    Promising Young Woman – WGA

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Father

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST DIRECTOR

    This one is probably the most locked award of the night as Zhao has won every major precursor and almost every critics’ award in her category. Nobody else has a chance.

    Nominees:

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – GG, CCA, DGA, BAFTA

    David Fincher – Mank

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round

    Pick: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Acting Categories

    BEST ACTOR

    While Anthony Hopkins’ BAFTA win shows that there is support for his performance, BAFTA does often show a preference for British actors and Boseman should still be able to win. However, some are saying that the Hopkins win is indicative of a very popular push for the veteran’s work to be recognized. Still, I don’t think it will be enough to overtake Boseman. This does, however, show that there is a lot of support for The Father and it may be a mistake to predict the film being shut out.

    Nominees:

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG, CCA, SAG

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – BAFTA

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Pick: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    BEST ACTRESS

    A stat that is important, I think, is that no Best Actress winner in at least the last 10 years has lost at the Film Independent Spirit awards if they were nominated there. That means that if the eventual Best Actress winner is nominated at the Spirit awards it will win there as well. Carey Mulligan was the winner from the Spirits and if I were to go by the previously-mentioned logic, Andra Day and Mulligan are the only two that have a chance at winning here (since Day was not nominated at the Spirits). This is only one of the stats that are in play here and the question is which of these stats is the most breakable?

    While the SAG award has been in existence (it was started in the mid-90s), no Best Actress winner won without a nomination there. Andra Day is the only nominee that did not pull off a nomination at SAG and while some might say that is because her film had a really late release date and was therefore underseen, Judas and the Black Messiah also had a late release date but Kaluuya was still able to garner a SAG nom. This seems like a pretty strong stat since there are hundreds of people that vote for the SAG awards who also vote for the Oscars.

    Another stat is that every Best Actress winner in the 21st century so far won at either SAG or BAFTA. Davis won SAG and McDormand won BAFTA but this year at BAFTA, a jury of around 10 people chose the nominations in the acting and directing categories for the first time this century and actresses like Davis, Mulligan, and Day did not receive a nomination, probably as a result. In the end, I feel that BAFTA would have gone to Mulligan without the juries and that the two somewhat similar roles from Day and Davis might cancel each other out a bit and Mulligan will prevail.

    Nominees:

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – SAG

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – BAFTA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Pick: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya has taken the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice award, SAG award, and BAFTA for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. While some say that Lakeith Stanfield’s surprise inclusion here could siphon votes away from Kaluuya, Kaluuya is the only acting sweeper this year and I think he is too far ahead at this point to lose.

    Nominees:

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA, SAG, BAFTA

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Pick: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    2020 – Laura Dern – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2019 – Regina King – GG, CCA

    2018 – Allison Janney – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2017 – Viola Davis – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    2016 – Alicia Vikander – SAG, CCA

    2015 – Patricia Arquette – GG, BAFTA, SAG, CCA

    Even though some say Glenn Close is still in this race, I really think that the Razie nomination may have been the nail in the coffin for her. So in my mind this is between Youn Yuh-Jung and Maria Bakalova. The former has won the SAG and BAFTA awards while the latter has won the Critics Choice award. Even though purely comedic performances aren’t often recognized in this category, Bakalova’s performance is one that has transcended that bias as even who have not even watched the movie know about the quality and success of her performance. Youn’s performance in Minari is more of a traditional winner in this category and this is an excellent place to award Minari especially when it will likely not win anywhere else. Since I think Minari has a lot of love, I am going with Youn.

    Nominees:

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – SAG, BAFTA

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Pick: Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Sound, Original Song, Original Score

    BEST SOUND

    One stat that I thing is crucial here is that no winner in either Best Sound Editing or Best Sound Mixing in the 2010s was not a best Picture nominee. Skyfall in 2013 is the sole exception but it tied for the Best Sound Editing win with Zero Dark Thirty, a Best Picture nominee. Sound Of Metal and Mank are the only Best Picture nominees here and since Sound of Metal has the precursor support it should win. Also, sound is such a crucial component of Sound of Metal as the film follows the journey of a man losing his hearing. Soul is probably Sound Of Metal’s only competition here but I think that Sound of Metal should be able to pull away with the win.

    Nominees:

    Sound of Metal – BAFTA, CAS

    Soul – CAS (Animated), MPSE (Animated)

    Greyhound – MPSE

    Mank

    News of the World

    Pick: Sound of Metal

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    2020 – Rocketman GG, CCA

    2019 – A Star is Born – GG, CCA

    2018 – Coco – CCA

    2017 – La La Land – GG, CCA

    2016 – Spectre – GG

    2015 – Selma – GG, CCA

    2014 – Frozen – CCA

    2013 – Skyfall – GG, CCA

    This is a 3-way race between Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest, Speak Now from One Night in Miami, and lo si (Seen) from The Life Ahead. Husavik is the only nominated song that is heard within the movie and not in the closing credits, which is something the Academy often looks favorly upon. Speak Now is the uplifting socially-relevant song that will give some recognition to a film that many thought was snubbed. And lo si (Seen) is Diane Warren’s twelfth Oscar nomination and many might feel that this is a great opportunity to give the veteran her due. Going by past data it seems that it’s between The Life Ahead and One Night in Miami as the former won the Globe and the latter won at the CCA. It’s also, I think, important to mention that all of these films are well-known films that had love. One Night in Miami fits that description to a much greater degree than The Life Ahead so even though Speak Now could split votes from the other socially-relevant songs from The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah. I’m still going to go with Speak Now because of One Night in Miami’s popularity and nominations in other categories and since this will probably be the place where they awarddouble-nominated Leslie Odom Jr.

    Nominees:

    One Night in Miami – Speak Now – CCA

    Eurovision Song Contest – Husavik

    The Life Ahead – lo si (Seen) – GG

    Judas and the Black Messiah – Fight For You

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Hear My Voice

    Pick: One Night in Miami

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul has won at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Awards in this category and has a pretty secure hold on the Oscar as well. Soul has strong advantage as the film is about a jazz musician and since Jon Batiste’s original jazz pieces are included as part of the score with Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s background score, I don’t see how Soul can lose here.

    Nominees:

    Soul – GG, CCA, BAFTA

    Minari

    News of the World

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Pick: Soul

     

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Film Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design

    BEST FILM EDITING

    2020 – Ford v Ferrari – BAFTA

    2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody – ACE

    2018 – Dunkirk – ACE, CCA

    2017 – Hacksaw Ridge – BAFTA

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, ACE, CCA

    2015 – Whiplash – BAFTA

    In the past six years, the winner in the Best Editing category has crossed over with a Best Sound Mixing or Editing winner as well. Sound of Metal has a good chance of continuing that trend as, like Whiplash before it, is a drummer-focused drama with great editing. However, I think that The Trial of the Chicago 7 has a great chance of pulling away here since I don’t really see it winning anywhere else. With its recent wins from SAG, ACE and MPSE, it seems that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a well-liked film among people in the industry. It is certainly the most widely-watched of the Best Picture nominees and I think that its popularity should bring it at least one win. Therefore, I think the film’s flashy editing should bring it a win as it has the precursors necessary.

    Nominees:

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA (tied), ACE

    Sound of Metal – CCA (tied), BAFTA

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Promising Young Woman

    Pick: The Trial of the Chicago 7

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    2020 – 1917 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2019 – Roma – BAFTA, CCA

    2018 – Blade Runner 2049 – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2017 – La La Land – BAFTA, CCA

    2016 – The Revenant – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    2015 – Birdman – BAFTA, ASC, CCA

    Even though Mank did nab ASC, Nomadland is still most likely going to take this especially since ASC often diverges from Oscar. Nomadland took BAFTA and CCA which are more predictive so I’ll keep it as the winner. While Mank does have that showy black-and-white cinematography, Nomadland’s vistas are absolutely stunning as well so I think it still should win.

    Nominees: 

    Nomadland – BAFTA, CCA

    Mank – ASC

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Pick: Nomadland

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    2020 – Little Women – BAFTA

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, CDG

    2018 – Phantom Thread – BAFTA, CCA

    2017 – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – 

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, CDG

    While Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them recently won with no precursor wins, it was not facing a film that had swept BAFTA, CCA, and CDA since its main competition, Jackie, lost CDA. So Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should win this over Emma..

    Nominees:

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – BAFTA, CCA, CDG (Period)

    Emma.

    Mulan – CDG (Fantasy)

    Mank

    Pinocchio

    Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

  • FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature, International Feature, Documentary Feature

    ANIMATED FEATURE

    With the Annie award yesterday, Soul has completely swept this category and it seems close to impossible that anything else can win.

    Nominees:

    Soul – GG, CCA, PGA, BAFTA, Annie

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    A Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon

    Pick: Soul

    INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    This one also seems like a no-brainer since Another Round’s Thomas Vinterberg earned a nomination in Best Director. The movie obviously has a lot of love and while it would probably be more satisfying for Vinterberg to earn his Oscar recognition for something like Festen or The Hunt, it’s great that he’s finally getting his due from the Academy.

    Nominees:

    Another Round – BAFTA

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Collective

    Better Days

    The Man Who Sold His Skin

    Pick: Another Round

    DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    2020 – American Factory – DGA

    2019 – Free Solo – BAFTA, ACE

    2018 – Icarus 

    2017 – OJ: Made in America – ACE, CCA, DGA, PGA

    2016 – Amy – BAFTA, ACE, CCA, PGA

    2015 – Citizenfour – BAFTA, ACE, DGA

    Even though it doesn’t seem to be a tough to predict race going by the precursors that My Octopus Teacher has won, I could easily see every other nominee, except for The Mole Agent, pulling away with a victory. Collective and Time are critical favorites and Crip Camp has the Obamas behind them but none of them have won any major precursors. I think that what is happening is that those “message” films are essentially splitting votes with one another and the comparatively lighter My Octopus Teacher is benefitting as a result. Another thing to mention is that no winner in this category in the past six years has won without a nomination at both BAFTA and DGA and this year the only film that fits that criteria is My Octopus Teacher.

    Nominees:

    My Octopus Teacher – BAFTA, PGA, ACE

    Collective

    Time

    Crip Camp

    The Mole Agent

    Pick: My Octopus Teacher

  • Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    Final 2021 Oscar Predictions: Visual Effects, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

    VISUAL EFFECTS

    The last 10 winners in this category (1917, First Man, Blade Runner 2049, The Jungle Book, Ex Machina, Interstellar, Gravity, Life of Pi, Hugo, Inception) have a few things in common. First, they were all nominated in categories other than Visual Effects in addition to their Visual Effects nominations (except for The Jungle Book but that film won BAFTA, VES, and the CCA so it was the definite frontrunner coming in). Only Tenet and Mulan can boast the same this year. All of these films are also critically-acclaimed and are widely-acknowledged to be in the top 30 films of their year. Only Tenet can claim the same as none of its competitors have a Metascore above 60 (except Mulan but its reputation is greatly tarnished after the widespread backlash to the film).

    With that said, the VES award for best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature is one of the best predictors when it comes to this award and The Midnight Sky triumphed over Tenet there. Still, based on the facts above I am going to go with Tenet here.

    Nominees:

    Tenet – CCA, BAFTA

    The Midnight Sky – VES

    The One and Only Ivan – VES

    Mulan

    Love and Monsters

    Pick: Tenet

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    2020 – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – CCA, ADG

    2019 – Black Panther – CCA, ADG

    2018 – The Shape of Water – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2017 – La La Land – CCA, ADG

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, CCA, ADG

    In the past six years, every winner in this category has won both an ADG award and a CCA award and Mank should continue that trend. With Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s win last year we know that this category loves to reward nostalgia and Mank is a great source of that with its immaculately-crafted and period-specific sets that give the audience a window into Old Hollywood. I don’t really see how anything can win since Mank has swept all the major precursors.

    Nominees:

    Mank – CCA, BAFTA, ADG (Period), SDSA

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Tenet – ADG (Fantasy)

    The Father

    Pick: Mank

    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    2020 – Bombshell – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2019 – Vice – CCA, MUAH

    2018 – Darkest Hour – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2017 – Suicide Squad – MUAH

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road – BAFTA, CCA, MUAH

    2015 – The Grand Budapest Hotel – BAFTA, MUAH

    Among the past six winners in this category, every single one has won a Makeup and Hairstyling Guild (MUAH) award. The two films that have one this year are Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and Pinocchio. Suicide Squad is the only film in the past six years that has won with just MUAH but the other two precursors, BAFTA and CCA, were taken by Florence Foster Jenkins and Jackie respectively so Suicide Squad was not against a film that had swept the precursors. Therefore, I don’t think Pinocchio has enough to pull this off and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom should add this category to its total.

    Nominees:

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, BAFTA, MUAH

    Pinocchio – MUAH

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Emma.

    Pick: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom