Awards Insights

Tag: oscar predictions

  • Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

    Post Oscar Nominations Analysis

    NOMINATIONS BY FILM
    (2 or more)

    Mank (Netflix) — 10
    The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) — 6
    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) — 6
    Minari (A24) — 6
    Nomadland (Searchlight) — 6
    Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) — 6
    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) — 6
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) — 5
    Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) — 5
    News of the World (Universal) — 4
    One Night In Miami (Amazon Studios) — 3
    Soul (Walt Disney) — 3
    Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Films) — 2
    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios) — 2
    Collective (Magnolia Pictures/Participant) — 2
    Emma (Focus Features) — 2
    Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) — 2
    Mulan (Walt Disney) — 2
    Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) — 2
    Tenet (Warner Bros.) — 2

    Source: Deadline

    BEST PICTURE

    Here the biggest snubs were the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami, which both received nominations from the PGA and the SAG. I hadn’t predicted The Father getting in but it did and also received nominations in Adapted Screenplay and Editing, which technically makes it a contender for a Best Picture win. Speaking of Best Picture contenders, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Sound of Metal, and the previously-mentioned The Father all received nominations in Screenplay and Editing which are traditional requirements for a Best Picture. However, only the first three have a real chance of winning. Nomadland is still my favorite to win here.

    Another interesting to note is that only three films from streamers were nominated (Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 for Netflix and Sound of Metal for Amazon), which shows that even in this year where everything was online the Academy is still exercising their bias against streamers. This also is probably one of the reasons behind the exclusions of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) and One Night in Miami (Amazon).

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Thomas Vinterberg got in and Aaron Sorkin was left out. European directors oftentimes get a surprise inclusion here (Pawel Pawilkowski did the same thing two years ago) and Vinterberg continued that trend. And rightfully so as Vinterberg as made some modern classics with The Celebration and The Hunt. This inclusion all but cements the fact that Vinterberg’s Another Round will win Best International Feature Film. Nonetheless, Chloe Zhao will be winning this.

    Aaron Sorkin was snubbed here, which doesn’t damage his film’s chances at Best Picture immensely as Green Book director Peter Farrelly wasn’t nominated in this category either, but The Trial of the Chicago 7 now has to win Original Screenplay if it wants to win and it has stiff competition there with Promising Young Woman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    The biggest surprise here was Lakeith Stanfield’s inclusion with his Judas and the Black Messiah costar Daniel Kaluuya. While there is a potential that the two actors may split votes, I still believe that Kaluuya has this one in the bag.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Even after that surprise Golden Globe win, Jodie Foster did not receive an Oscar nomination. The Mauritanian, which was nominated for five BAFTAs, was completely shut out today. Glenn Close, who was nominated for a Golden Raspberry for her performance in Hillbilly Elegy also received an Oscar nomination for that performance (this is the first time that has happened in the 21st century). She actually has a chance to win the Oscar but I don’t think she will due to the Razzie nomination. This is one of those categories where I could see any one of the five ending up as the winner, but if Bakalova wins at SAG she will win it all here as she already has a win at the CCA. Youn Yuh-jung also has a high chance of winning here as the Academy loves Minari but probably has no other place to award the film. Again, SAG is important because I doubt she can win here without winning at SAG first.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Judas and the Black Messiah getting this and two Supporting Actor nominations shows that it has support from the Academy. However, it missed out on Editing so I doubt it can win Best Picture. That goes for Minari as well as it also got a nomination here but missed out on Editing. Mank, the nominations leader, was snubbed here so it has no chance at winning Picture as it was snubbed in Editing as well.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom was surprisingly snubbed here as well, this time in favor of Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The White Tiger. The support for Borat here brings me to believe that Maria Bakalova should transcend the fact that here film is a comedy and win in Best Supporting Actress, but I’ll just have to see what happens at SAG.

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Promising Young Woman’s inclusion here is great for it and with this nomination it cements itself as a top-3 Best Picture contender along with fellow Editing nominees The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland.

    Most people have The Trial of the Chicago 7 winning here but in at least the last six years, the Editing branch has leaned more towards genre films that are not top-2 Best Picture contenders. So, as a result, Sound of Metal is the film that I think will win here.

    Past Best Editing Winners:

    2020 Oscars – Ford v Ferrari

    2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody

    2018 – Dunkirk

    2017 – Hacksaw Ridge

    2016 – Mad Max: Fury Road

    2015 – Whiplash

    All of these films were Best Picture nominees but not top-2 Best Picture contenders, which leads me to believe that Sound of Metal, which fits this criteria, will win this category.

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS 

    This category loves to award CGI-heavy films with little practical effects so I should have known Love and Monsters would pop in here as opposed to Welcome to Chechnya (which surprisingly missed out in Documentary Feature as well). Tenet will probably win this in the end like Interstellar and inception before it.

     

  • February Oscar Nominations Predictions

    February Oscar Nominations Predictions

    Key:

    CCA – Critics Choice Awards

    SAG – Screen Actors Guild Awards

    GG – Golden Globes

    AFI – American Film Institute pick

    WGA – Writers’ Guild

    USC – USC Scripter awards

    As I explain in this post, I think there will be eight nominations in this category this year and my eight picks are, as of right now, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Judas and the Black Messiah ends up with a PGA nomination, I think it will be the 9th nominee.

    BEST PICTURE

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama), AFI

    Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Minari – CCA, SAG, GG (Foreign), AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

    The Father – GG (Drama)

    Could Jump In: Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Soul – AFI, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Mauritanian

     

    While I do think the backlash to Spike Lee not getting a nomination at the Globes could vault him to a spot here, Emerald Fennell looks poised to take her position here on the strength of Promising Young Woman’s upward surge.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – CCA, GG

    David Fincher – Mank – CCA, GG

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG

    Regina King – One Night in Miami – CCA, GG

    Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – CCA

     

    If Lindo gets BAFTA he will be nominated but if Yeun does he will get nominated because I think it is very likely that the foursome of Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, and Oldman will be nominated at BAFTA as well (especially because three of them are British).

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Gary Oldman – Mank – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari – SAG, CCA, Tom Hanks – News of the World – CCA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG (Drama), Ben Affleck – The Way Back – CCA, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    This slate of five seems essentially locked as nobody on the outside looking in seems like they have enough to jump in. However, this could be that surprise category where someone like Sidney Flanigan jumps in at the last second.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG (Drama), CCA

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie – CCA, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy – SAG, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA

     

    Even though I am not sure about his film getting nominated for Best Picture, Daniel Kaluuya, I think, will win this as his performance as exactly the kind of performance the Academy likes to award in this category. The question here is who will be the two men that will fill the last two spots? Well, I think Raci should be getting one of them and it will be between Murray and Boseman to fit the last spot. Apple+ really has only one thing to campaign this Oscar season and that is Bill Murray in On the Rocks so going by that I’m going to place Murray here instead of Boseman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, SAG, GG

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, GG

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal – CCA

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG

    Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, Jared Leto – The Little Things – SAG, GG

     

    SAG does have a habit of nominating young people in this category so I expected Zengel to get a nomination there. However, she also received a nomination from the Globes so maybe she has more of a chance than I had thought. But I am still going to hold off on picking her just yet.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, SAG, GG

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – CCA, SAG

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA, SAG, GG (in lead)

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World – SAG, GG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah

     

    Trial and the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman have both received nominations at Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, and from the WGA. Mank received nods from the Globes and the CCA and was not eligible for the WGA. Minari and Soul were also not eligible for nomination from the WGA.

    The dilemma with this category is that I am pretty sure about the first four receiving nominations but the last slot could be filled by either Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, or Sound of Metal. Sound of Metal received nods from both the CCA and the WGA. I am going to go with ‘Judas’ because it is the biggest Best Picture contender of the three, but Sound of Metal and Soul both have a great chance here. Also, I still have a small feeling that Judas and the Black Messiah can win Best Picture (especially after watching it) and it needs this nomination to do that.

    But it is also true that there is usually at least one film in the Original Screenplay nominated five that does not get a Best Picture nod.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG, WGA

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, WGA

    Mank – CCA, GG

    Minari – CCA

    Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA

    Could Jump In: Soul, Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs – WGA

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland – CCA, GG, USC

    One Night in Miami – CCA, USC, WGA

    The Father – CCA, GG

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, USC, WGA

    First Cow – CCA, USC

    Could Jump In: News of the World – CCA, WGA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, The White Tiger – WGA

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul – GG

    Wolfwalkers – GG

    Over the Moon – GG

    Onward – GG

    Bombay Rose

    Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age – GG, No. 7 Cherry Lane, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank – CCA,

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    News of the World – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    Could Jump In: Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    News of the World – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Minari – CCA

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, One Night in Miami, First Cow, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    News of the World

    Mulan – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, The Glorias, The United States vs Billie Holiday

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA

    Nomadland – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Tenet – CCA

    Sound of Metal – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Father – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA

    Hillbilly Elegy – CCA

    Emma. – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Pinocchio, The United States vs Billie Holiday – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet – CCA

    The Midnight Sky – CCA

    Mank – CCA

    Mulan – CCA

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul – CCA, GG

    Mank – CCA, GG

    News of the World – CCA, GG

    Minari – CCA

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Tenet – GG, CCA, The Midnight Sky – GG, CCA, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Little Things

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami – GG, CCA

    The Life Ahead – GG, CCA

    Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Eurovision Song Contest – CCA

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, Minari, Giving Voice

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round – CCA, GG

    Collective – CCA

    Two of Us – CCA, GG

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Night of the Kings

    Could Jump In: La Llorona – CCA, GG, I’m No Longer Here, Dear Comrades!

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Time – CCA

    Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA (win)

    Collective

    Crip Camp – CCA

    Boys State

    Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, All In: The Fight for Democracy, The Truffle Hunters

     

    BEST ANIMATED SHORT

    If Anything Happens I Love You

    Burrow

    Out

    Kapaemahu

    Opera

    Could Jump In: The Snail and the Whale, To Gerard

     

    BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

    The Letter Room

    The Human Voice

    Two Distant Strangers

    White Eye

    Da Yie

    Could Jump In: Feeling Through, The Present

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

    Colette

    Hunger Ward

    A Love Song for Latasha

    What Would Sophia Loren Do?

    The Speed Cubers

    Could Jump In: Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split

  • Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

    Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations

    The Broadcast Film Critics Association finally released their nominations and with them in mind I will try to take a deeper look into what probably will be nominated in Picture

    Picture

    Now that News of the World has finally received a nomination, there are now 13 films in total that can get a Best Picture nomination (Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7) and unless PGA picks something crazy in early March, these will be the top 13 contenders.

    Let’s break them down:

    Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI

    The Father – GG (Drama)

    Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI

    Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), SAG, AFI

    News of the World – CCA

    Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI

    One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI

    Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)

    Soul – AFI

    Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG (Drama), SAG, AFI

     

    Based on this, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most locked for a Best Picture nomination.

    If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Sully, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens are the only films in the last five years that have missed a Best Picture nomination after getting nods at both CCA and AFI. What do these films have in common?

    Well, all of them except The Big Sick did not end up getting nominated at the Producers Guild Awards. And The Big Sick did not get picked by the Oscars in the end because of their storied bias against comedies.

    So essentially, if any one of Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 get snubbed by the PGA, their Best Picture chances are slightly in jeopardy. I personally think that Sound of Metal will be the one to drop and the final Best Picture slate will be the remaining seven plus Promising Young Woman.

    Also, if Judas and the Black Messiah gets a mention from the PGA it’ll be added to slate as well.

  • January Oscar Predictions

    January Oscar Predictions

    We’re at the stage in the game where we essentially know what films will be considered. In my view, there are 13 films that have a good chance to get a Best Picture nomination, the ten I put in my predictions and News of the World, Soul, and Sound of Metal. 6 of these films (Nomadland, ‘Trial’, Mank, ‘Ma Rainey’, Minari, and ‘One Night’) I think are essentially locked in for a nomination while the rest will probably shuffle around until nomination morning on March 15th.

    I was thinking of leaving out Da 5 Bloods from my nominations this month, but the film has continued to stay relevant in the race due to the enormous attention it has received from the critics’ awards in a variety of categories. It seems this film, even though it was released in June, will be remembered come Oscar nomination morning.

    At this point in the race, I think there are only 3 films that can win Best Picture Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Judas and the Black Messiah. The first two have been widely-seen and are generally well-liked by both the critics and public. However, Judas and the Black Messiah has not been seen by the general public but early word is very good and if this movie makes a big impact with critics then this film will shoot up on this list.

    This is the first time I have Promising Young Woman in the top 10 and I think it will stay there since due to this category’s use of the preferential ballot, films with a passionate following benefit, which is something this film has in spades.

    I’m keeping The Father and News of the World as they are films that will likely appeal to the “old guard” of the Academy but at the same I don’t see as much passion behind them and something like Da 5 Bloods, Soul, or Sound of Metal could easily take up one of their slots.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Minari (A24)

    Mank (Netflix)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Promising Young Woman (Focus)

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The Prom, Cherry

     

    Chloe Zhao does not look like she can lose this at this point in the race. Something may change but Zhao is the director of a top 3 Best Picture contender and has won essentially all of the critics’ awards so far for Best Director.

    To me, Zhao, Fincher, and Sorkin are all but assured a nomination with the bottom two slots being more of a question mark.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

    Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller – The Father

     

    Like Zhao in director, there doesn’t seem to be a way that Boseman loses this. His performance has been getting plaudits from everywhere and while he is not far and away the leader in critics’ awards he has won at the ones that are more predictive of success at the Oscars.

    I had trouble leaving Yeun out of the top five and if Mank continues to receive a mostly tepid reception from the public and critics’ groups, Oldman might drop out. Ahmed, Boseman, and Lindo are the actors receiving the most attention from the critics’ groups and while I didn’t have Ahmed in here last month his performance (and his film for that matter) is gaining notices.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, John David Washington – Malcolm and Marie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Carey Mulligan is slowly but surely rising up the ranks as her performance continues to get more and more recognition. She and McDormand are getting most of the attention in this category from critics’ groups, but don’t underestimate Davis who would become only the second-ever Black woman to win in this category (Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball in 2002).

    Zendaya is coming off a surprise Emmy win and her performance in Malcolm and Marie is being praised as one of the best of the year by the critics that have seen the film. That Emmy momentum could propel Zendaya in to the top five but she would likely replace either Kirby or Day.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm and Marie, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Meryl Streep – The Prom

     

    Daniel Kaluuya is getting raves from the few reviews of Judas and the Black Messiah that are out there and I don’t really see him not being a nominee. Odom Jr. and Baron Cohen are definitely his Kaluuya’s main competition in this category and either of these actors playing historical figures could win.

    Paul Raci has (by far) won the most critics’ awards in this category and that catapults him into the top five this month. I don’t see him winning because his film is not a frontrunner but it’s definitely a possibility.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, David Strathairn – Nomadland

     

    I don’t see anybody outside of my top six listed here getting nominated in this category. However, choosing that one actress that will get left out is difficult. But I’m going to go with Close since her film was widely panned.

    Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung have won most of the critics’ awards in this category but they both have things working against them. Bakalova’s performance was in a comedy and as purely comedic performances hardly ever get nominated, Bakalova has to work through that barrier.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

    Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Promising Young Woman

    Mank

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Sound of Metal

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    First Cow

    Could Jump In: News of the World, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Lupin III: The First, Trolls: World Tour, Demon Slayer

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, The Prom, Tenet

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    Tenet

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Emma

    Mulan

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World, The Prom, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Nomadland

    Mank

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Mank

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    The United States vs Billie Holiday

    Could Jump In: Bill and Ted Face the Music, The Prom, Birds of Prey, Emma., Mulan

     

    BEST SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Mank

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Tenet

    The Midnight Sky

    Greyhound

    The Invisible Man

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Mank, Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    News of the World

    Minari

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    One Night in Miami

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Could Jump In: The Prom, Trolls: World Tour, Miss Americana, The Outpost, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Crip Camp

    All In: The Fight For Democracy

    Time

    Totally Under Control

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Collective, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya, John Lewis: Good Trouble, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI

     

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

    Another Round

    Night of the Kings

    I’m No Longer Here

    Collective

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    Could Jump In: A Sun, Charlatan, Two of Us, Dear Comrades!, The Auschwitz Report

  • Late December Oscar Predictions

    Late December Oscar Predictions

    The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.

    Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.

    But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.

    I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    Minari

    One Night in Miami

    The Father

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round

     

    Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman

     

    Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.

    I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova

     

    Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.

    Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

     

    This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.

    The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.

    Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman

    Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

    Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom

     

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.

    Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Promising Young Woman

    Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal

     

    While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    The Father

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    One Night in Miami

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom

     

    Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Earwig and the Witch

    Onward

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble

     

    This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Mulan

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Emma

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Mank

    The Prom

    Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Birds of Prey

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Soul

    The Midnight Sky

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland

     

    I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    News of the World

    Minari

    Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk

     

    Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Trolls: World Tour

    Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest

     

    Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round

    Collective

    Night of the Kings

    Quo Vadis, Aida?

    I’m No Longer Here

    Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    Crip Camp

    Collective

    Dick Johnson is Dead

    Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya

  • November Oscar Predictions

    November Oscar Predictions

    The Gotham Award nominations were released on Thursday and every film nominated for Best Feature at the Gothams was directed by a woman. While the Gothams are usually not very predictive of the Oscars, (usually the winner of their Best Feature gets a Best Picture nomination but that’s about it) their picks show that diversity and inclusion may be a theme that the Academy focuses on as well this season.

    Mank was finally seen by critics and while I thought it would get slightly better reviews (it currently has an 80 metascore) the people who loved it really loved it and passion is all film needs to do well in Best Picture.

    Hillbilly Elegy was also seen for the first time and those reviews were…much worse. The truth is that if this movie was released a decade ago it probably would’ve been a mid-level Best Picture contender and a box-office success with maybe an acting win for Glenn Close. However, much has changed since then and while many if not most members of the Academy will like Hillbilly Elegy, the people who likely would have supported in the past will probably get cold feet due to the reviews. It is interesting how this year two prominent films, Nomadland and Hillbilly Elegy, center on the lives of poorer white people yet tackle their subjects in very different ways. Nomadland is a lot more natural and grounded film, while Hillbilly Elegy is a traditional cliched Hollywood melodrama. This contrast will likely hurt Hillbilly Elegy.

    Even though I know there is a good chance that Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs. Billie Holliday will not be released this year, I will keep them in their places as they will likely do well if they are released.

    BEST PICTURE

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Minari (A24)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Soul, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Hillbilly Elegy, On the Rocks, The Prom, Promising Young Woman, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, The White Tiger, Ammonite

     

    Like I mentioned before, the Gothams focused on female directors with their nominations and since I now strongly think that Mank will not win Best Picture as movies in the last few years usually have to tackle an “issue” to win Best Picture, I believe that Chloe Zhao should win this category. Zhao would be a great winner and would be the third Asian to win Best Director in the last ten years (Ang Lee and Bong Joon-Ho were the other two).

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

     

    Chadwick Boseman was nominated for a Gotham award on Thursday which was a great sign that he will be recognized for his work throughout this awards season. I am not sure whether Daniel Kaluuya or Lakeith Stanfield will be submitted as the lead for Judas and the Black Messiah so I am going to keep him on the outside looking in. The top four here (Boseman, Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman) seem pretty solid to me and either one of these men, I think, has a good chance of winning.

    BEST ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Steven Yeun – Minari

    Could Jump In: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry

     

    The backlash to Hillbilly Elegy will likely continue here. Amy Adams was already just barely on in the top 5 here in my last predictions so the response to her movie pushes her down a few slots. This gives an opportunity for someone like Sophia Loren to jump in.

    While Pieces of a Woman is probably too different and niche to be a major Best Picture player, I could see it getting one or two acting nominations but nothing more. Kirby’s performance is getting spectacular reviews and if she was in a more “accessible” movie to Oscar voters she might have won this category.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

    Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Meryl Streep – The Prom

     

    Sacha Baron Cohen had a great October as two of his films, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, got greatest notices. The amazing year he is having will likely lead him getting a nomination for one of his films since Borat is (sadly) not a very Oscar-friendly movie.

    Leslie Odom Jr. is also having a great year as Hamilton was a hit when it was released on Disney Plus and he is getting outstanding reviews for his performance as the great Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. I could definitely see him winning this but all the categories are very much up-in-the-air.

    Even though I don’t really see Supernova being a top-level Best Picture player, Stanley Tucci likely will transcend that and get a nomination for what critics are calling one of the film veteran’s best performances.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    Stanley Tucci – Supernova

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    While Hillbilly Elegy is getting mostly negative reviews, I feel that its actors could still emerge with nominations. Still, neither Amy Adams nor Glenn Close will likely get wins as their performances, which would have probably been lauded as early as ten years ago, have been deemed as “caricatures” by more than a few critics.

    Colman, Seyfried, and Close are the three frontrunners and many also have Ellen Burstyn in the mix as well. However, Pieces of a Woman is a very brutal film and likely will be divisive among Oscar voters so I don’t see it getting nominated in two categories.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Youn yuh-Jung – Minari

    Helena Zengel – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Swankie – Nomadland

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Minari

    Soul

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, On the Rocks

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    One Night in Miami

    Nomadland

    The Father

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The United States of Billie Holliday, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Wolfwalkers

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: Lupin III: The First, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Connected

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    News of the World

    Emma.

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ammonite

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Nomadland

    Tenet

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, Minari, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Emma.

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World

     

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: The Father, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Minari, The Midnight Sky

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Hillbilly Elegy

    Birds of Prey

    Mank

    The United States vs. Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Prom

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Mank

    The Midnight Sky

    Sound of Metal

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, The Invisible Man, Greyhound, Nomadland

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Invisible Man, Call of the Wild, The One and Only Ivan

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Mank

    Soul

    Minari

    The Midnight Sky

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    The Life Ahead

    Over the Moon

    One Night in Miami

    The Prom

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: All In: The Fight for Democracy, The One and Only Ivan, Trolls: World Tour, Onward, Giving Voice

     

    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

    Totally Under Control

    Crip Camp

    Boys State

    John Lewis: Good Trouble

    All In: The Fight for Democracy

    Could Jump In: Dick Johnson is Dead, Welcome to Chechnya, Time, The Dissident, The Truffle Hunters

  • Early October Predictions

    Early October Predictions

    Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.

    These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.

     

    While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.

    The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.

    BEST PICTURE

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

    Soul (Disney/Pixar)

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry

     

    Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.

    Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    David Fincher – Mank

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Regina King – One Night in Miami

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks

     

    This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.

    BEST ACTOR

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater

     

    Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

     

    Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.

    I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

    Could Jump In: Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Steven Yeun – Minari, Charles Dance – Mank

     

    It feels like déjà vu doesn’t it? Glenn Close and Olivia Colman are again the frontrunners in a category after Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Close to win Best Actress in 2019. Unlike that year, Close’s film Hillbilly Elegy is a larger contender than The Wife ever was and, as a result, Close will be even more of a contender this year if her performance is of the same pedigree.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Audra McDonald – Respect

    Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Youn yuh-Jung – Minari, Swankie – Nomadland, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Soul

    Minari

    Judas and the Black Messiah

    Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite, Respect, Palm Springs

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    One Night in Miami

    Nomadland

    The Father

    News of the World

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, The United States vs Billie Holliday, French Exit, First Cow, Next Goal Wins

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Wolfwalkers

    Onward

    The Croods: A New Age

    Could Jump In: Connected, The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, Lupin III: The First, Rumble

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    Mulan

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Respect, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Nomadland

    Mank

    Dune

    News of the World

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, No Time to Die, Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Dune

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Coming 2 America, Death on the Nile, Emma, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Birds of Prey

    Dune

    Respect

    Mank

    The United States vs Billie Holliday

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ammonite, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

     

    BEST EDITING

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Nomadland

    Dune

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Sound of Metal

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Greyhound

    Mulan

    Sonic the Hedgehog

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Call of the Wild, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Soul

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Da 5 Bloods

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Mank, Over the Moon, Ammonite, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, One Night in Miami

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Over the Moon

    The One and Only Ivan

    One Night in Miami

    Giving Voice

    Could Jump In: Miss Americana, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, Trolls: World Tour

  • September Oscar Predictions

    September Oscar Predictions

    The Oscar race will only heat up this month as major festivals in Venice and Toronto take place. As the Venice Film Festival is going on right now, I am looking out for the reception of certain films (One Night in Miami and Nomadland, for example) in order to see how they will fare come Oscars night.

     

    On Saturday, Netflix released the first images for Mank and they definitely did not hurt the film’s anticipation.

    Christopher Nolan’s Tenet was released to good, not great reviews, which hurt the film’s chances a bit.

    Since my last post, the trailer for Judas and the Black Messiah was released and it looked great as well as timely. The film will likely be Warner Bros’ first priority to push during Oscar season.

    Nomadland (this was announced in late July) was selected as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece, which is a position that Best Picture nominees Roma and Marriage Story have held. (2018 and 2019 respectively)

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), The Father (Sony Classics), Soul (Disney/Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus), United States vs Billie Holliday (Paramount)

     

    The images for Mank are visually impressive and David Fincher looks like he is on track to have a great year.

    If Nomadland is a Top 6 Best Picture contender, Chloe Zhao will be nominated for Best Director

    I am still slightly hesitant of placing Sorkin so high in my director predictions as he is best-known for being a screenwriter, but ‘Chicago 7’ looks like it will be a top 3 Best Picture contender.

    Both Greengrass and Villeneuve will undoubtedly fill their respective films with impressive technical flourishes and those are the kind of details that Oscar voters love in this category.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

    Paul Greengrass – News of the World

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Regina King – One Night in Miami

     

    People have already seen both Lindo and Hopkins’ performances and both have been praised as some of the best of their respective careers.

    All three of the previous winners in this category all played famous historical or fictional people. And while Herman J. Mankiewicz (Oldman) and Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) do not have the same level of name-recognition that The Joker (Phoenix), Freddie Mercury (Malek), and Winston Churchill (Oldman again) have, they still have great chances to win. Oldman is always dependable and is the lead in the film with the most prestige. Kaluuya looked like he was firing on all cylinders in his film’s trailer and rises as a prime contender.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Courier

     

    Viola Davis is always a contender and as she is playing a historical figure, Ma Rainey the “Mother of the Blues”, she has an even greater chance of receiving her second Oscar.

    It is very likely that Jennifer Hudson will receive a nomination for her portrayal of Aretha Franklin and, if so, she will likely knock out either Michelle Pfeiffer or Amy Adams. I am keeping Pfeiffer as she is a Hollywood veteran that has never received an Oscar nomination and I am keeping Adams for now as she has 5 nominations without a win and this year may be her chance to finally get some Oscar gold.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Audra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman – The Father

     

    First of all, R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman, who was not only an amazing actor, but also an inspiration to millions of people for his humility and kindness. His story is one of perseverance and it is truly uplifting. Rest in Power.

    The images released for Mank did not include Tom Burke at all and that might be just because they want to unveil his transformation into Orson Welles at a later date but it may also be because he does not have very large of a role.

    Someone from the Chicago 7 will get nominated and we are probably going to need a trailer (which will probably come out at the end of September at the latest) to see who has the lead and major supporting roles in this film.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Could Jump In: Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    I’ve said this before but if Glenn Close gives a great performance in Hillbilly Elegy she is essentially guaranteed this Oscar. She did not win in 2017 because nobody really saw The Wife but Hillbilly Elegy looks to be a Best Picture nomination contender, which already places Close’s chances higher than they were in 2017.

    Ronan also has a great chance but if, theoretically, both Ronan and Close end up giving equally great and recognized performances, Close will win based on the fact that she is much overdue for an Oscar.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Mary G. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Leslie Manville – Let Him Go, Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Ammonite

    Da 5 Bloods

    Soul

    Could Jump In: On the Rocks, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Stillwater, Promising Young Woman

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Hillbilly Elegy

    I’m thinking of ending things

    Could Jump In: Dune, West Side Story, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Next Goal Wins, The Father, Those Who Wish Me Dead, French Exit

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Tenet

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Nomadland

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, I’m thinking of ending things

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ammonite

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    West Side Story

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Eternals, Respect, Louis Wain, Emma

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Nomadland, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, West Side Story

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    Respect

    West Side Story

    Mulan

    Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Eternals, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain

     

    BEST SOUND

    Dune

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    Eternals

    Soul

    Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Da 5 Bloods, Black Widow

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Wonder Woman 1984

    The One and Only Woman

    Could Jump In: Black Widow, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Sonic the Hedgehog, The Invisible Man

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    Soul

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon, The Secret Garden

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    The One and Only Ivan

    The Prom

    Over the Moon

    Could Jump In: Mulan, Miss Americana, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, All Together Now, The Outpost

  • Early August Oscar Predictions

    Early August Oscar Predictions

    Since my last post, the Toronto International Film Festival and others have revealed their lineups, which greatly affects the Oscar race.

    Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

    Even though this year is crazy and trends will likely not be followed, the winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2011 and in 9 out of the last 10 years.

    3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book).

    The festival also gives 2nd and 3rd place awards and in the last 5 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination as well.

    In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

    In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

    Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

    Obviously this festival has a great track record and of the 16 films in this year’s Gala and Special Presentations, I have chosen 4 in my Best Picture nominations (Nomadland, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, and The Father). As this year’s slate consists of a lesser amount of films than it usually does, there is a good chance that only 2 or 3 films at TIFF get a Best Picture nomination this year.

    Other than the TIFF-related changes, I have not shifted much in my Best Picture predictions, save for an increase in Nomadland’s placement as it is playing at TIFF and opening the New York Film Festival (which The Irishman did last year)

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    One Night in Miami (Amazon)

    The Father (Sony Classics)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), Soul (Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Minari (A24), C’mon C’mon (A24), On the Rocks (Apple+), Respect (MGM), Annette (Amazon), Good Joe Bell (None yet)

     

    Aaron Sorkin is probably the most significant climber this month as his ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ has been moved to Netflix, which means it is certain to be released. Even though, Sorkin is best known for being a screenwriter, if his film is a top 3 contender he will most likely get nominated for Best Director as well.

    Greengrass and Spielberg have the greatest chance of entering the fold as Sorkin and Villeneuve are especially vulnerable to drop.

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Denis Villeneuve – Dune

    Could Jump In: Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Regina King – One Night in Miami, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Leos Carax – Annette

     

    With The Father’s entry into the Best Picture fold, Anthony Hopkins solidifies his place in the nominations.

    Redmayne, Goree (playing Cassius Clay, better known as Muhammad Ali), Phoenix, and Kaluuya all have great chances to jump in the fold.

    BEST ACTOR

    Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eli Goree – One Night in Miami, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette

     

    This is one of the more stacked categories as the top 7 contenders all seem like great choices. I had Pfeiffer winning in past months but if her film does not get any traction (which is possible) she will not get nominated, but if French Exit is even a Top 20 Best Picture contender, she could win.

    I have become increasingly confident about Viola Davis’ chances as I have been looking into the cast and crew of her film and the film will likely be good. If it’s good, Davis will definitely get a nomination and if it’s great she will probably win.

    I could easily see Rachel Zegler and Jessica Chastain cracking the top 5, I just need more information to come out about their films.

    BEST ACTRESS

    Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

    Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Sidney Flanigan – Red, White, and Water

     

    Prior to June, I had Chadwick Boseman getting nominated in this category for Da 5 Bloods, but once that film came out the prospect of that happening became less likely. However, he might get a nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as he is playing off Viola Davis, which is a boon for any actor.

    The images for The Trial of the Chicago 7 did not really clear up speculation on who is going to be the lead so I still have no idea what to do with that amazing cast of actors. Cohen and Strong were featured in many of the images released by Netflix and probably have some of the larger roles so I put them in. Abdul-Mateen, Odom Jr. (he’s playing Sam Cooke), Grant, Stanfield, and Ben-Adir (he’s playing Malcolm X) are all people I could see joining the top 5 soon.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Pelphrey – Mank, Richard Jenkins – The Humans, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami

     

    Like Anthony Hopkins, Olivia Colman’s likelihood of being nominated rose with the announcement of The Ftaher playing at TIFF. Saoirse Ronan and Glenn Close firmly claim the top spots, while Rashida Jones and Abigail Breslin both have a good chance to receive a nomination.

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

    Olivia Colman – The Father

    Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Ammonite

    Soul

    Could Jump In: Stillwater, On the Rocks, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Annette, Judas and the Black Messiah

     

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    One Night in Miami

    Hillbilly Elegy

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Dune, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Father, Next Goal Wins, French Exit, Those Who Wish Me Dead

     

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Over the Moon

    Onward

    Aya and the Witch

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Could Jump In: Wolfwalkers, The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Connected, Trolls: World Tour

     

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Mank

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Tenet

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, Respect, News of the World, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Da 5 Bloods

     

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    Nomadland

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: West Side Story, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Hillbilly Elegy, Annette

     

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Dune

    Mank

    Respect

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eternals, Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Emma

     

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Tenet

    Dune

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    News of the World

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, West Side Story, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Stillwater

     

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    Dune

    Respect

    Eternals

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    Could Jump In: Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain, The Green Knight

     

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    News of the World

    No Time to Die

    Could Jump In: Eternals, Respect, Da 5 Bloods, Annette, Greyhound

     

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Eternals

    Black Widow

    Wonder Woman 1984

    Could Jump In: No Time to Die, Sonic the Hedgehog, Greyhound, The Secret Garden, Bloodshot

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Tenet

    Mank

    Soul

    Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Annette, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon

     

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time to Die

    Soul

    Annette

    The Prom

    Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

    Could Jump In: Over the Moon, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

     

    TIFF is even more predictive of the International Feature Film category

    In 2019, 4 of the 5 nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 5 of the 5, in 2017, 5 of the 5, in 2016, 2 of the 5, and in 2015, 3 of the 5.

    In the last 5 years, every winner in this category has gone to TIFF.

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Another Round (Druk) – Denmark

    Summer of 85 – France

    New Order – Mexico

    Quo Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina

    The Story of My Wife – Germany

    Could Jump In: True Mothers – Japan, Three Floors – Italy, The Marco Effect – Denmark, One Second – China, Aya and the Witch – Japan, On a Half Clear Morning – France, Gjirokastra – Russia

  • Early June Oscar Predictions

    Early June Oscar Predictions

    With talk in the Academy of postponing the Oscars, these predictions may be farther from the ceremony than was initially thought. What got me to make a new set of predictions was the Cannes Film Festival unveiling their would-be participating films and some movements in the list reflect this announcement (especially in the International Feature category).

    Well, without further ado, here are my predictions.

    BEST PICTURE

    Mank (Netflix)

    The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Paramount)

    Nomadland (Searchlight)

    West Side Story (20th Century)

    Dune (Warner Bros.)

    Ammonite (Neon)

    Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

    Tenet (Warner Bros.)

    News of the World (Universal)

    Soul (Pixar)

    Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The French Dispatch, Stillwater, C’mon C’mon, Annette, On the Rocks, The Father, Minari, Next Goal Wins, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    BEST DIRECTOR

    David Fincher – Mank

    Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

    Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

    Denis Vileneuve – Dune

    Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

    Could Jump In: Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, Leos Carax – Annette

    BEST ACTOR

    Gary Oldman – Mank

    Bill Murray – On the Rocks

    Tom Hanks – News of the World

    Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon

    Anthony Hopkins – The Father

    Could Jump In: Adam Driver – Annette, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Ansel Elgort – West Side Story, Timothee Chalamet – Dune, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, John David Washington – Tenet

    BEST ACTRESS

    Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

    Kate Winslet – Ammonite

    Frances McDormand – Nomadland

    Marion Cotillard – Annette

    Jennifer Hudson – Respect

    Could Jump In: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking About Ending Things, Angelina Jolie – Those Who Wish Me Dead, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    Tom Burke – Mank

    Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

    David Strathairn – Nomadland

    Jesse Plemons – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Could Jump In: Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Lucas Hedges – French Exit, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Jonathan Majors – Da 5 Bloods, Tom Pelphrey – Mank, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance – Mank, Marlon Wayans – Respect, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

    Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

    Rashida Jones – On the Rocks

    Amanda Seyfried – Mank

    Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

    Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Toni Colette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Lily Collins – Mank, Olivia Colman – The Father, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins, Cherry Jones – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Claire Foy – Louis Wain

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    On the Rocks

    Ammonite

    Could Jump In: Soul, The French Dispatch, Tenet, C’mon C’mon, Annette, Stillwater, The King of the Staten Island, BIOS, Minari

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

    Nomadland

    News of the World

    Hillbilly Elegy

    West Side Story

    Dune

    Could Jump In: Next Goal Wins, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Those Who Wish Me Dead, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Respect, The Prom, Mulan

    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    Soul

    Onward

    Over the Moon

    Where is Anne Frank?

    Earwig and the Witch

    Could Jump In: Wolfwalkers, The Croods 2, Connected, The Willoughbys, Tom and Jerry, Trolls: World Tour

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Tenet

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, Mulan, The Witches

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Dune

    Mank

    Tenet

    West Side Story

    The French Dispatch

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Nomadland, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, Annette, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World

    BEST COSTUME DESIGN

    Mank

    Ammonite

    The French Dispatch

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Respect, Coming 2 America, The Witches, Mulan, The Prom

    BEST FILM EDITING

    Mank

    Dune

    Tenet

    News of the World

    West Side Story

    Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, The French Dispatch, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Annette, Stillwater, Next Goal Wins, Nomadland

    BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    Mank

    The French Dispatch

    The Witches

    Dune

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Wonder Woman 1984, The Prom, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Tenet

    BEST SOUND

    Tenet

    Dune

    West Side Story

    Da 5 Bloods

    No Time To Die

    Could Jump In: News of the World, Mulan, After Yang, Annette, Top Gun: Maverick, Black Widow, Respect

    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

    Dune

    Tenet

    Godzilla vs Kong

    BIOS

    Black Widow

    Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Top Gun: Maverick, Mulan, The Witches, No Time To Die, Sonic the Hedgehog, Doolittle

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    Dune

    Soul

    Mank

    Da 5 Bloods

    Tenet

    Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Annette, Ammonite, The Witches, BIOS, The Last Planet, Minari

    BEST ORIGINAL SONG

    No Time To Die

    Annette

    Soul

    The Prom

    Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

    Could Jump In: Mulan, West Side Story, Respect, Over the Moon

    BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

    Druk

    Summer of ‘85

    Benedetta

    One Second

    The Story of My Wife

    Could Jump In: Gjirokastra, The Marco Effect, On a Half Clear Morning, Three Floors, Earwig and the Witch, Wake Up on Mars, True Mothers