17 Feb February Oscar Nominations Predictions
Key:
CCA – Critics Choice Awards
SAG – Screen Actors Guild Awards
GG – Golden Globes
AFI – American Film Institute pick
WGA – Writers’ Guild
USC – USC Scripter awards
As I explain in this post, I think there will be eight nominations in this category this year and my eight picks are, as of right now, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Mank, Minari, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Judas and the Black Messiah ends up with a PGA nomination, I think it will be the 9th nominee.
BEST PICTURE
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama), AFI
Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)
Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
Minari – CCA, SAG, GG (Foreign), AFI
One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI
Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI
Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI
The Father – GG (Drama)
Could Jump In: Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI, News of the World – CCA, Soul – AFI, First Cow, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Mauritanian
While I do think the backlash to Spike Lee not getting a nomination at the Globes could vault him to a spot here, Emerald Fennell looks poised to take her position here on the strength of Promising Young Woman’s upward surge.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland – CCA, GG
David Fincher – Mank – CCA, GG
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG
Regina King – One Night in Miami – CCA, GG
Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG
Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari – CCA
If Lindo gets BAFTA he will be nominated but if Yeun does he will get nominated because I think it is very likely that the foursome of Boseman, Hopkins, Ahmed, and Oldman will be nominated at BAFTA as well (especially because three of them are British).
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)
Anthony Hopkins – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)
Gary Oldman – Mank – CCA, SAG, GG (Drama)
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods – CCA
Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari – SAG, CCA, Tom Hanks – News of the World – CCA, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian – GG (Drama), Ben Affleck – The Way Back – CCA, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
This slate of five seems essentially locked as nobody on the outside looking in seems like they have enough to jump in. However, this could be that surprise category where someone like Sidney Flanigan jumps in at the last second.
BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA
Frances McDormand – Nomadland – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman – GG (Drama), SAG, CCA
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday – GG (Drama), CCA
Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie – CCA, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy – SAG, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA
Even though I am not sure about his film getting nominated for Best Picture, Daniel Kaluuya, I think, will win this as his performance as exactly the kind of performance the Academy likes to award in this category. The question here is who will be the two men that will fill the last two spots? Well, I think Raci should be getting one of them and it will be between Murray and Boseman to fit the last spot. Apple+ really has only one thing to campaign this Oscar season and that is Bill Murray in On the Rocks so going by that I’m going to place Murray here instead of Boseman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah – CCA, SAG, GG
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, GG
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, SAG, GG
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal – CCA
Bill Murray – On the Rocks – CCA, GG
Could Jump In: Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, Jared Leto – The Little Things – SAG, GG
SAG does have a habit of nominating young people in this category so I expected Zengel to get a nomination there. However, she also received a nomination from the Globes so maybe she has more of a chance than I had thought. But I am still going to hold off on picking her just yet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman – The Father – CCA, SAG, GG
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy – CCA, SAG, GG
Amanda Seyfried – Mank – CCA, GG
Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari – CCA, SAG
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – CCA, SAG, GG (in lead)
Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World – SAG, GG, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman – CCA, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian – GG, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah
Trial and the Chicago 7 and Promising Young Woman have both received nominations at Critics Choice, the Golden Globes, and from the WGA. Mank received nods from the Globes and the CCA and was not eligible for the WGA. Minari and Soul were also not eligible for nomination from the WGA.
The dilemma with this category is that I am pretty sure about the first four receiving nominations but the last slot could be filled by either Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, or Sound of Metal. Sound of Metal received nods from both the CCA and the WGA. I am going to go with ‘Judas’ because it is the biggest Best Picture contender of the three, but Sound of Metal and Soul both have a great chance here. Also, I still have a small feeling that Judas and the Black Messiah can win Best Picture (especially after watching it) and it needs this nomination to do that.
But it is also true that there is usually at least one film in the Original Screenplay nominated five that does not get a Best Picture nod.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG, WGA
Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG, WGA
Mank – CCA, GG
Minari – CCA
Judas and the Black Messiah – WGA
Could Jump In: Soul, Sound of Metal – CCA, WGA, Never Rarely Sometimes Always – CCA, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs – WGA
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland – CCA, GG, USC
One Night in Miami – CCA, USC, WGA
The Father – CCA, GG
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, USC, WGA
First Cow – CCA, USC
Could Jump In: News of the World – CCA, WGA, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm – WGA, The White Tiger – WGA
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul – GG
Wolfwalkers – GG
Over the Moon – GG
Onward – GG
Bombay Rose
Could Jump In: The Croods: A New Age – GG, No. 7 Cherry Lane, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank – CCA,
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA
News of the World – CCA
Tenet – CCA
Emma. – CCA
Could Jump In: Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Mulan
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nomadland – CCA
Mank – CCA
News of the World – CCA
Tenet – CCA
Minari – CCA
Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, One Night in Miami, First Cow, Da 5 Bloods
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA
Mank – CCA
Emma. – CCA
News of the World
Mulan – CCA
Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA, Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey, The Glorias, The United States vs Billie Holiday
BEST FILM EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA
Nomadland – CCA
Mank – CCA
Tenet – CCA
Sound of Metal – CCA
Could Jump In: The Father – CCA, Judas and the Black Messiah, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Promising Young Woman
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA
Hillbilly Elegy – CCA
Emma. – CCA
Mank – CCA
Birds of Prey
Could Jump In: Pinocchio, The United States vs Billie Holiday – CCA, Promising Young Woman – CCA
BEST SOUND
Sound of Metal
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
Soul
Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet – CCA
The Midnight Sky – CCA
Mank – CCA
Mulan – CCA
Birds of Prey
Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, Soul, The One and Only Ivan
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul – CCA, GG
Mank – CCA, GG
News of the World – CCA, GG
Minari – CCA
Da 5 Bloods
Could Jump In: Tenet – GG, CCA, The Midnight Sky – GG, CCA, The Trial of the Chicago 7, The Little Things
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
One Night in Miami – GG, CCA
The Life Ahead – GG, CCA
Judas and the Black Messiah – GG, CCA
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Eurovision Song Contest – CCA
Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7 – GG, Minari, Giving Voice
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round – CCA, GG
Collective – CCA
Two of Us – CCA, GG
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Night of the Kings
Could Jump In: La Llorona – CCA, GG, I’m No Longer Here, Dear Comrades!
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Time – CCA
Dick Johnson is Dead – CCA (win)
Collective
Crip Camp – CCA
Boys State
Could Jump In: Welcome to Chechnya, All In: The Fight for Democracy, The Truffle Hunters
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
If Anything Happens I Love You
Burrow
Out
Kapaemahu
Opera
Could Jump In: The Snail and the Whale, To Gerard
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Letter Room
The Human Voice
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
Da Yie
Could Jump In: Feeling Through, The Present
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Colette
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
What Would Sophia Loren Do?
The Speed Cubers
Could Jump In: Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa, A Concerto is a Conversation, Do Not Split