25 Feb Final Golden Globe Predictions: Who Will Win and What Surprises Will Be in Store?
The Golden Globes are notorious for throwing curveballs and while my predictions don’t necessarily have many surprises I do show you possibilities for what could be in store.
So, without further ado, here are the predictions:
FILM
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
THE FATHER (Trademark Films; Sony Pictures Classics)
MANK (Netflix; Netflix)
NOMADLAND (Highwayman / Hear/Say / Cor Cordium; Searchlight Pictures)
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (LuckyChap Entertainment / FilmNation Entertainment; Focus Features)
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (Marc Platt Productions / Dreamworks Pictures; Netflix)
For the past three years there has been a surprise winner in this category at the Globes that ends up becoming a major frontrunner after its win here. Since Promising Young Woman is not widely-considered to be a top 3 frontrunner yet I think a win here will cement in that position. Anyway, there are only 3 films that can win this, the previously-mentioned Promising Young Woman, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Nomadland. They all have pros and cons with The Trial of the Chicago 7 being the film that would traditionally win in this category and Nomadland being the film that voters feel safe picking in this age of Twitter. However, Promising Young Woman is a movie that has the entertainment that the Globes love and is beloved by Film Twitter so I think it will be the pick for the very homogenous HFPA voting body. Still, the Globes have shown a lot of love to Sorkin (he has received 9 nominations from them) in the past so maybe that will translate into a win for ‘Chicago 7’? Also, will the Globes show their fixation on Old Hollywood and pick Mank?
WINNER: Promising Young Woman
UPSET PICK(S): The Trial of the Chicago 7, Nomadland
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
VIOLA DAVIS
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANDRA DAY
THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
VANESSA KIRBY
PIECES OF A WOMAN
FRANCES MCDORMAND
NOMADLAND
CAREY MULLIGAN
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
To me, this is between Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis. The backlash to the Golden Globes’ lack of black nominees was swift and powerful so you bet they will try to do whatever they can to dispel that notion. With that said, I have Promising Young Woman winning and that definitely does not happen without Mulligan winning here. Even though I think this is a two-horse race, watch out for Frances McDormand who is one her seventh Globe nomination.
WINNER: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
UPSET PICK: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom or Frances McDormand – Nomadland
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
RIZ AHMED
SOUND OF METAL
CHADWICK BOSEMAN
MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANTHONY HOPKINS
THE FATHER
GARY OLDMAN
MANK
TAHAR RAHIM
THE MAURITANIAN
I know that some think that Hopkins could end up winning this as he is the kind of industry veteran that the HFPA loves to award but I really don’t seen anyone other than Boseman taking this award. Ahmed could surprise any other year but Boseman seems untouchable this year.
WINNER: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
UPSET PICK: Anthony Hopkins – The Father
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
(Four By Two Films; Amazon Studios)
HAMILTON
(Walt Disney Pictures / RadicalMedia / 5000 Broadway Productions / NEVIS Productions / Old 320 Sycamore Pictures; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
MUSIC
(Pineapple Lasagne Productions / Landay Entertainment; Vertical Entertainment / IMAX)
PALM SPRINGS
(Party Over Here / Limelight Productions; NEON / Hulu)
THE PROM
(Netflix / Dramatic Forces / Storykey Entertainment; Netflix)
Hamilton is exactly the kind of thing that the HFPA would love, it is almost as if it is tailored for their tastes. However, there are a few problems that it has. One, will the Globes want to award it when it was released in July? By that I mean will enough voters remember it? Also, will there be some voters that disagree with its nomination in general as it is essentially a recording of a Broadway musical? Even with these questions, I think Hamilton will pull through, but do not underestimate Borat as its politics could bring it to the top of the pack. Some people also have The Prom winning this but the fact that two actresses that the Globes love, Meryl Streep and Nicole Kidman, did not get a nomination in Best Actress – Comedy or Musical shows to me that really doesn’t have that much support.
WINNER: Hamilton
UPSET PICK: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
MARIA BAKALOVA
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
KATE HUDSON
MUSIC
MICHELLE PFEIFFER
FRENCH EXIT
ROSAMUND PIKE
I CARE A LOT
ANYA TAYLOR-JOY
EMMA
The Globes love a comeback story so watch out for Pfeiffer to steal this. Still, Bakalova is the only nominee whose film is also nominated for Best Film (other than Hudson but she has essentially no chance due to the almost universal backlash against her film) so I feel like she should win this. If Bakalova doesn’t win this, her chances for a Best Supporting Actress nom at the Oscars greatly diminish so watch how this one plays out.
WINNER: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
UPSET PICK: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit or Rosamund Pike – I Care a Lot
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
SACHA BARON COHEN
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
JAMES CORDEN
THE PROM
LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA
HAMILTON
DEV PATEL
THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD
ANDY SAMBERG
PALM SPRINGS
My gut is telling me to put Lin-Manuel Miranda here is feel the HFPA will go crazy about Hamilton, but my brain is telling me that Cohen is going to win this as he has had an amazing year and this is the spot where he has the highest chance of being awarded. Also watch out for someone like Dev Patel or Andy Samberg since Dev Patel is the kind of actor that the HFPA loves and Andy Samberg has hosted before. This race seems poised for a surprise.
WINNER: Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
UPSET PICK: Lin-Manuel Miranda – Hamilton
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
THE CROODS: A NEW AGE
(DreamWorks Animation; Universal Pictures)
ONWARD
(Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
OVER THE MOON
(Netflix / Pearl Studio / Glen Keane Productions; Netflix)
SOUL
(Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
WOLFWALKERS
(Cartoon Saloon / Melusine; Apple / GKIDS)
People are saying that Wolfwalkers could take this but I still don’t think it will. If this was a weak year for Pixar I would definitely have Wolfwalkers winning this but it is not as Soul is as critically-acclaimed as some of Pixar’s most classic original films.
WINNER: Soul
UPSET PICK: Wolfwalkers
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
ANOTHER ROUND (DENMARK)
(Zentropa Entertainments; Samuel Goldwyn Films)
LA LLORONA (GUATEMALA / FRANCE)
(La Casa de Producción / Les Films du Volcan; Shudder)
THE LIFE AHEAD (ITALY)
(Palomar; Netflix)
MINARI (USA)
(Plan B; A24)
TWO OF US (FRANCE / USA)
(Paprika Films; Magnolia Pictures)
I will be thoroughly shocked if Minari does not win this. I have it as a top-5 Best Picture contender at the Oscars and if it does not win here I will definitely have to reconsider that placement. Another Round seems like its only competition.
WINNER: Minari
UPSET PICK: Another Round
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
GLENN CLOSE
HILLBILLY ELEGY
OLIVIA COLMAN
THE FATHER
JODIE FOSTER
THE MAURITANIAN
AMANDA SEYFRIED
MANK
HELENA ZENGEL
NEWS OF THE WORLD
Another three-horse race, this time between Amanda Seyfried, Olivia Colman, and Glenn Close. Colman is definitely beloved by the HFPA (she’s won 3 Globes in the last five years!) yet I feel like her performance in The Father is too understated for the tastes of the HFPA. I also think that the Globes want to award Mank somewhere and this is probably that film’s best opportunity to win. And then there’s Glenn Close. She’s on her 15th Globe nomination and her role in Hillbilly Elegy is the kind of “transformative” performance that the Globes love. However, her film Hillbilly Elegy is controversial and the HFPA might feel that they are on thin ice after all the backlash they have faced for various things.
WINNER: Amanda Seyfried – Mank
UPSET PICK: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy or Olivia Colman – The Father
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
SACHA BARON COHEN
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
DANIEL KALUUYA
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
JARED LETO
THE LITTLE THINGS
BILL MURRAY
ON THE ROCKS
LESLIE ODOM JR
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
In the past three Golden Globes, the winner in this category has been in a film that would eventually win a Best Film award. Sacha Baron Cohen is the only one in the pack from a Best Film nominee and it’s a major contender. However, Kaluuya and Odom Jr. are playing famous historical figures, a type of performance the HFPA loves to award. They are also young actors that have been major names in the industry for less than five years, which is a category of actor the HFPA loves to acknowledge as well. I am going with Kaluuya since, during the period February 10th to the 23rd (the period that the Globes are voted upon), Kaluuya has gained the most plaudits, media attention, and critics’ awards. Still, this one is very uncertain.
WINNER: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
UPSET PICK: Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami or Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
EMERALD FENNELL
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
DAVID FINCHER
MANK
REGINA KING
ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
AARON SORKIN
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
CHLOÉ ZHAO
NOMADLAND
Chloe Zhao is going to continue sweeping basically everything in this category so this is kind of a no-brainer for me.
WINNER: Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
UPSET PICK: N/A
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
EMERALD FENNELL
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
JACK FINCHER
MANK
AARON SORKIN
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
FLORIAN ZELLER, CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON
THE FATHER
CHLOÉ ZHAO
NOMADLAND
This would be Sorkin’s eighth nomination in this category (and he has won twice already) so I don’t know how smart it would be to bet against him here. However, I also think that if Promising Young Woman wins here, it will definitely win Best Drama and since I do have Promising Young Woman I should probably have it winning here as well, right? Well, I am going to play it safe and choose ‘Trial’ but I will not be the least bit surprised if Promising Young Woman takes this.
WINNER: The Trial of the Chicago 7
UPSET PICK: Promising Young Woman
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
ALEXANDRE DESPLAT
THE MIDNIGHT SKY
LUDWIG GÖRANSSON
TENET
JAMES NEWTON HOWARD
NEWS OF THE WORLD
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS
MANK
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS, JON BATISTE
SOUL
Since Jon Batiste is also a part of the group that is being nominated, I think Soul should win here. I don’t think Reznor and Ross’ music by itself would handily earn the win but with Batiste’s jazz additions, Soul should easily win this and start on its sweep of this category throughout awards season.
WINNER: Soul
UPSET PICK: Mank
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“FIGHT FOR YOU” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Music by: H.E.R., Dernst Emile II
Lyrics by: H.E.R., Tiara Thomas
“HEAR MY VOICE” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Music by: Daniel Pemberton
Lyrics by: Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite
“IO SÌ (SEEN)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
Music by: Diane Warren
Lyrics by: Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi
“SPEAK NOW” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI
Music by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Lyrics by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
“TIGRESS & TWEED” — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Music by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
Lyrics by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
The Globes love to award anthemic and uplifting music in this category and Speak Now, which although starts somewhat low-key, does become that type of song. However, this is a more competitive category than most people think and I definitely could see either H.E.R. or Andra Day taking this for their respective films.
WINNER: One Night in Miami
UPSET PICK: The United States vs. Billie Holiday or Judas and the Black Messiah
TV
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
THE CROWN – NETFLIX
(Left Bank Pictures / Sony Pictures Television)
LOVECRAFT COUNTRY – HBO
(HBO / Afemme / Monkeypaw / Bad Robot / Warner Bros. Television)
THE MANDALORIAN – DISNEY+
(Lucasfilm Ltd.)
OZARK – NETFLIX
(MRC Television)
RATCHED – NETFLIX
(Fox21 Television Studios)
The HFPA loves to make shocking picks in this category and they have shown a lot of love to Ryan Murphy in the past so even though Ratched was widely panned it could win. However, The Crown has five acting nominations so it definitely has wide support and should probably win. Still, it is important to mention that the HFPA does not usually like to reward shows after their debut season, which is concerning for The Crown (third season) and good for Ratched and Lovecraft Country.
WINNER: The Crown
UPSET PICK: Ratched
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
OLIVIA COLMAN
THE CROWN
JODIE COMER
KILLING EVE
EMMA CORRIN
THE CROWN
LAURA LINNEY
OZARK
SARAH PAULSON
RATCHED
While Emma Corrin and Olivia Colman could split votes, Emma Corrin winning here is a very Globes-y thing to do. She is a relative newcomer and is playing a famous public figure in a prestige drama, a usually foolproof formula to winning a Globe.
WINNER: Emma Corrin – The Crown
UPSET PICK: Olivia Colman – The Crown or Sarah Paulson – Ratched
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
JASON BATEMAN
OZARK
JOSH O’CONNOR
THE CROWN
BOB ODENKIRK
BETTER CALL SAUL
AL PACINO
HUNTERS
MATTHEW RHYS
PERRY MASON
This category seems very unpredictable. I could think of arguments for Bateman, O’Connor, Rhys, and Pacino winning this so this is one of the widest fields this year. So let me find arguments against them winning. Jason Bateman has already lost twice for his role in Ozark and the Globes have not shown that they respect the rule third time’s a charm. The Crown will most likely win in both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress so will the HFPA, who oftentimes like to spread the wealth, want to award O’Connor as well? Matthew Rhys delivers a great performance but the HFPA hasn’t shown that they liked Perry Mason as it did not receive any other nominations even though it was expected to. Al Pacino is a big name and his performance is the kind of showy veteran role that the Globes love, but Hunters may not have enough people that liked it for Pacino to win. I am going to choose O’Connor because he has the least, in my opinion, going against him.
WINNER: Josh O’Connor – The Crown
UPSET PICK: Jason Bateman – Ozark or Al Pacino – Hunters
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
EMILY IN PARIS – NETFLIX
(Darren Star Productions / Jax Media / MTV Studios)
THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT – HBO MAX
(HBO Max / Berlanti Productions / Yes, Norman Productions / Warner Bros. Television)
THE GREAT – HULU
(Hulu / Civic Center Media / MRC)
SCHITT’S CREEK – POP TV
(Not A Real Company Productions / Canadian Broadcast Company / Pop TV)
TED LASSO – APPLE TV+
(Apple / Doozer Productions / Warner Bros. Television / Universal Television)
The Globes like to award shows that are in their first season. That is good news for Ted Lasso, The Flight Attendant, The Great, and Emily in Paris yet since this is the first time Schitt’s Creek has been nominated in this category at the Globes, the HFPA will likely treat it like a first-time nominee. Schitt’s Creek also has the most acting nominations in the Musical or Comedy sphere so it seems safe for the win, but watch out for the crowd-pleaser Ted Lasso to steal this.
WINNER: Schitt’s Creek
UPSET PICK: Ted Lasso
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
LILY COLLINS
EMILY IN PARIS
KALEY CUOCO
THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT
ELLE FANNING
THE GREAT
JANE LEVY
ZOEY’S EXTRAORDINARY PLAYLIST
CATHERINE O’HARA
SCHITT’S CREEK
This one is really between Catherine O’Hara and Kaley Cuoco. They represent the two performances that the Globes love to award the showy Hollywood veteran turn and the young first-time nominee performance. Still, it is also true that this is O’Hara’s first Globe nomination so I think the Globes will want to quickly rectify that and award the comedy legend.
WINNER: Catherine O’Hara – Schitt’s Creek
UPSET PICK: Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
DON CHEADLE
BLACK MONDAY
NICHOLAS HOULT
THE GREAT
EUGENE LEVY
SCHITT’S CREEK
JASON SUDEIKIS
TED LASSO
RAMY YOUSSEF
RAMY
Jason Sudeikis is the favorite here but the HFPA has shown that they like to award young up-and-coming comedians in this category so watch for Nicholas Hoult to make an upset. Emmy winner Eugene Levy has never won a Globe (he has never been nominated prior to this year either) and the Globes may choose to reward him this year.
WINNER: Jason Sudeikis – Ted Lasso
UPSET PICK: Eugene Levy – Schitt’s Creek or Nicholas Hoult – The Great
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
NORMAL PEOPLE – HULU
(Hulu / BBC / Element Pictures)
THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT – NETFLIX
(Netflix)
SMALL AXE – AMAZON STUDIOS
(BBC Studios Americas, Inc. / Amazon Studios)
THE UNDOING – HBO
(HBO / Made Up Stories / Blossom Films/David E. Kelley Productions)
UNORTHODOX – NETFLIX
(Studio Airlift / RealFilm)
While the Queen’s Gambit seems like the obvious pick here I cannot forget that Small Axe is absolutely beloved by critics and while the Globes have never really aligned greatly with the general critical consensus, I definitely can see Small Axe winning this.
WINNER: The Queen’s Gambit
UPSET PICK: Small Axe
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
CATE BLANCHETT
MRS. AMERICA
DAISY EDGAR-JONES
NORMAL PEOPLE
SHIRA HAAS
UNORTHODOX
NICOLE KIDMAN
THE UNDOING
ANYA TAYLOR-JOY
THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT
This is probably the most “sure thing” of any of the categories here as the acclaim for Taylor-Joy is more than any other of the nominees. She is the frontrunner by far and it would be very surprising if she doesn’t end up winning.
WINNER: Anya Taylor-Joy
UPSET PICK: Shira Haas – Unorthodox
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
BRYAN CRANSTON
YOUR HONOR
JEFF DANIELS
THE COMEY RULE
HUGH GRANT
THE UNDOING
ETHAN HAWKE
THE GOOD LORD BIRD
MARK RUFFALO
I KNOW THIS MUCH IS TRUE
This is probably a three-way race between Mark Ruffalo, Ethan Hawke, and Hugh Grant. Ruffalo is playing two roles, which is something the HFPA absolutely loves. Hugh Grant is having a career comeback with his role in The Undoing and that is the kind of storyline that the Globes love as well. And Hawke is playing a famous historical figure in John Brown. Also, watch out for Jeff Daniels as, like I said before, the Globes like when actors play political figures and Daniels is playing James Comey.
WINNER: Mark Ruffalo – I Know This Much is True
UPSET PICK: Hugh Grant – The Undoing or Ethan Hawke – The Good Lord Bird
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE
GILLIAN ANDERSON
THE CROWN
HELENA BONHAM CARTER
THE CROWN
JULIA GARNER
OZARK
ANNIE MURPHY
SCHITT’S CREEK
CYNTHIA NIXON
RATCHED
This is probably one of the easier categories to predict as Gillian Anderson’s performance as Margaret Thatcher is something that the HFPA will love.
WINNER: Gillian Anderson – The Crown
UPSET PICK: Annie Murphy – Schitt’s Creek or Cynthia Nixon – Ratched
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE
JOHN BOYEGA
SMALL AXE
BRENDAN GLEESON
THE COMEY RULE
DANIEL LEVY
SCHITT’S CREEK
JIM PARSONS
HOLLYWOOD
DONALD SUTHERLAND
THE UNDOING
While John Boyega should win this, Dan Levy and Brendan Gleeson are not far behind. The Globes like to award performances like Gleeson’s, I still remember when, last year, Russell Crowe had a surprise win for playing Roger Ailes. Gleeson, an Irish actor interestingly, is playing Donald Trump so I would watch out for him to upset.
WINNER: John Boyega – Small Axe
UPSET PICK: Brendan Gleeson – The Comey Rule or Dan Levy – Schitt’s Creek