08 Feb Evaluating the Race After Critics Choice Nominations
The Broadcast Film Critics Association finally released their nominations and with them in mind I will try to take a deeper look into what probably will be nominated in Picture
Picture
Now that News of the World has finally received a nomination, there are now 13 films in total that can get a Best Picture nomination (Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Soul, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7) and unless PGA picks something crazy in early March, these will be the top 13 contenders.
Let’s break them down:
Da 5 Bloods – CCA, SAG, AFI
The Father – GG (Drama)
Judas and the Black Messiah – AFI
Mank – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – CCA, SAG, AFI
Minari – CCA, GG (Foreign), SAG, AFI
News of the World – CCA
Nomadland – CCA, GG (Drama), AFI
One Night in Miami – CCA, SAG, AFI
Promising Young Woman – CCA, GG (Drama)
Soul – AFI
Sound of Metal – CCA, AFI
The Trial of the Chicago 7 – CCA, GG (Drama), SAG, AFI
Based on this, The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most locked for a Best Picture nomination.
If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, The Big Sick, The Florida Project, Sully, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens are the only films in the last five years that have missed a Best Picture nomination after getting nods at both CCA and AFI. What do these films have in common?
Well, all of them except The Big Sick did not end up getting nominated at the Producers Guild Awards. And The Big Sick did not get picked by the Oscars in the end because of their storied bias against comedies.
So essentially, if any one of Da 5 Bloods, Mank, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 get snubbed by the PGA, their Best Picture chances are slightly in jeopardy. I personally think that Sound of Metal will be the one to drop and the final Best Picture slate will be the remaining seven plus Promising Young Woman.
Also, if Judas and the Black Messiah gets a mention from the PGA it’ll be added to slate as well.