Early August Oscar Predictions

07 Aug Early August Oscar Predictions

Posted at 23:25h in All Predictions, Predictions by Arman Saxena

Since my last post, the Toronto International Film Festival and others have revealed their lineups, which greatly affects the Oscar race.

Here are some TIFF stats to show you how predictive this festival is:

Even though this year is crazy and trends will likely not be followed, the winner of the TIFF’s Grolsch People’s Choice Award has been nominated for Best Picture every year since 2011 and in 9 out of the last 10 years.

3 out of the last 10 winners won Best Picture (The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, and Green Book).

The festival also gives 2^nd and 3^rd place awards and in the last 5 years at least one of those runner-ups go on to get a Best Picture nomination as well.

In fact, in the past 10 years, 3 of those runner-ups (Argo, Spotlight, and Parasite) have gone on to win Best Picture.

In 2019, 5 of the 9 eventual Best Picture nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 3 of the 8, in 2017, 5 of the 9, in 2016, 5 of the 9, and in 2015, 4 of the 8.

Out of the last 10 Best Picture winners, 9 went to TIFF (the exception being 2014’s Birdman)

Obviously this festival has a great track record and of the 16 films in this year’s Gala and Special Presentations, I have chosen 4 in my Best Picture nominations (Nomadland, Ammonite, One Night in Miami, and The Father). As this year’s slate consists of a lesser amount of films than it usually does, there is a good chance that only 2 or 3 films at TIFF get a Best Picture nomination this year.

Other than the TIFF-related changes, I have not shifted much in my Best Picture predictions, save for an increase in Nomadland’s placement as it is playing at TIFF and opening the New York Film Festival (which The Irishman did last year)

BEST PICTURE

Mank (Netflix)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Ammonite (Neon)

News of the World (Universal)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

The Father (Sony Classics)

Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), Soul (Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Minari (A24), C’mon C’mon (A24), On the Rocks (Apple+), Respect (MGM), Annette (Amazon), Good Joe Bell (None yet)

Aaron Sorkin is probably the most significant climber this month as his ‘The Trial of the Chicago 7’ has been moved to Netflix, which means it is certain to be released. Even though, Sorkin is best known for being a screenwriter, if his film is a top 3 contender he will most likely get nominated for Best Director as well.

Greengrass and Spielberg have the greatest chance of entering the fold as Sorkin and Villeneuve are especially vulnerable to drop.

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher – Mank

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Could Jump In: Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Regina King – One Night in Miami, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks, Tom McCarthy – Stillwater, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Leos Carax – Annette

With The Father’s entry into the Best Picture fold, Anthony Hopkins solidifies his place in the nominations.

Redmayne, Goree (playing Cassius Clay, better known as Muhammad Ali), Phoenix, and Kaluuya all have great chances to jump in the fold.

BEST ACTOR

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Gary Oldman – Mank

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Tom Hanks – News of the World

Bill Murray – On the Rocks

Could Jump In: Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Eli Goree – One Night in Miami, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette

This is one of the more stacked categories as the top 7 contenders all seem like great choices. I had Pfeiffer winning in past months but if her film does not get any traction (which is possible) she will not get nominated, but if French Exit is even a Top 20 Best Picture contender, she could win.

I have become increasingly confident about Viola Davis’ chances as I have been looking into the cast and crew of her film and the film will likely be good. If it’s good, Davis will definitely get a nomination and if it’s great she will probably win.

I could easily see Rachel Zegler and Jessica Chastain cracking the top 5, I just need more information to come out about their films.

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White, and Water, Sidney Flanigan – Red, White, and Water

Prior to June, I had Chadwick Boseman getting nominated in this category for Da 5 Bloods, but once that film came out the prospect of that happening became less likely. However, he might get a nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom as he is playing off Viola Davis, which is a boon for any actor.

The images for The Trial of the Chicago 7 did not really clear up speculation on who is going to be the lead so I still have no idea what to do with that amazing cast of actors. Cohen and Strong were featured in many of the images released by Netflix and probably have some of the larger roles so I put them in. Abdul-Mateen, Odom Jr. (he’s playing Sam Cooke), Grant, Stanfield, and Ben-Adir (he’s playing Malcolm X) are all people I could see joining the top 5 soon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

David Strathairn – Nomadland

In 2019, 4 of the 5 nominees went to TIFF, in 2018, 5 of the 5, in 2017, 5 of the 5, in 2016, 2 of the 5, and in 2015, 3 of the 5.

In the last 5 years, every winner in this category has gone to TIFF.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

Another Round (Druk) – Denmark

Summer of 85 – France

New Order – Mexico

Quo Vadis, Aida? – Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Story of My Wife – Germany

Could Jump In: True Mothers – Japan, Three Floors – Italy, The Marco Effect – Denmark, One Second – China, Aya and the Witch – Japan, On a Half Clear Morning – France, Gjirokastra – Russia

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