September Oscar Predictions

08 Sep September Oscar Predictions

Posted at 04:26h in All Predictions, Oscar, Predictions by Arman Saxena

The Oscar race will only heat up this month as major festivals in Venice and Toronto take place. As the Venice Film Festival is going on right now, I am looking out for the reception of certain films (One Night in Miami and Nomadland, for example) in order to see how they will fare come Oscars night.

On Saturday, Netflix released the first images for Mank and they definitely did not hurt the film’s anticipation.

Christopher Nolan’s Tenet was released to good, not great reviews, which hurt the film’s chances a bit.

Since my last post, the trailer for Judas and the Black Messiah was released and it looked great as well as timely. The film will likely be Warner Bros’ first priority to push during Oscar season.

Nomadland (this was announced in late July) was selected as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece, which is a position that Best Picture nominees Roma and Marriage Story have held. (2018 and 2019 respectively)

BEST PICTURE

Mank (Netflix)

Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

News of the World (Universal)

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Ammonite (Neon)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

West Side Story (20^th Century)

Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), The Father (Sony Classics), Soul (Disney/Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus), United States vs Billie Holliday (Paramount)

The images for Mank are visually impressive and David Fincher looks like he is on track to have a great year.

If Nomadland is a Top 6 Best Picture contender, Chloe Zhao will be nominated for Best Director

I am still slightly hesitant of placing Sorkin so high in my director predictions as he is best-known for being a screenwriter, but ‘Chicago 7’ looks like it will be a top 3 Best Picture contender.

Both Greengrass and Villeneuve will undoubtedly fill their respective films with impressive technical flourishes and those are the kind of details that Oscar voters love in this category.

BEST DIRECTOR

David Fincher – Mank

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7

Paul Greengrass – News of the World

Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Regina King – One Night in Miami

People have already seen both Lindo and Hopkins’ performances and both have been praised as some of the best of their respective careers.

All three of the previous winners in this category all played famous historical or fictional people. And while Herman J. Mankiewicz (Oldman) and Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) do not have the same level of name-recognition that The Joker (Phoenix), Freddie Mercury (Malek), and Winston Churchill (Oldman again) have, they still have great chances to win. Oldman is always dependable and is the lead in the film with the most prestige. Kaluuya looked like he was firing on all cylinders in his film’s trailer and rises as a prime contender.

BEST ACTOR

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Gary Oldman – Mank

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Tom Hanks – News of the World

Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Courier

Viola Davis is always a contender and as she is playing a historical figure, Ma Rainey the “Mother of the Blues”, she has an even greater chance of receiving her second Oscar.

It is very likely that Jennifer Hudson will receive a nomination for her portrayal of Aretha Franklin and, if so, she will likely knock out either Michelle Pfeiffer or Amy Adams. I am keeping Pfeiffer as she is a Hollywood veteran that has never received an Oscar nomination and I am keeping Adams for now as she has 5 nominations without a win and this year may be her chance to finally get some Oscar gold.

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy

Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Audra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman – The Father

First of all, R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman, who was not only an amazing actor, but also an inspiration to millions of people for his humility and kindness. His story is one of perseverance and it is truly uplifting. Rest in Power.

The images released for Mank did not include Tom Burke at all and that might be just because they want to unveil his transformation into Orson Welles at a later date but it may also be because he does not have very large of a role.

Someone from the Chicago 7 will get nominated and we are probably going to need a trailer (which will probably come out at the end of September at the latest) to see who has the lead and major supporting roles in this film.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

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2020, oscar, oscar predictions, Oscar race, september predictions