The Oscar race will only heat up this month as major festivals in Venice and Toronto take place. As the Venice Film Festival is going on right now, I am looking out for the reception of certain films (One Night in Miami and Nomadland, for example) in order to see how they will fare come Oscars night.
On Saturday, Netflix released the first images for Mank and they definitely did not hurt the film’s anticipation.
Christopher Nolan’s Tenet was released to good, not great reviews, which hurt the film’s chances a bit.
Since my last post, the trailer for Judas and the Black Messiah was released and it looked great as well as timely. The film will likely be Warner Bros’ first priority to push during Oscar season.
Nomadland (this was announced in late July) was selected as the New York Film Festival’s Centerpiece, which is a position that Best Picture nominees Roma and Marriage Story have held. (2018 and 2019 respectively)
BEST PICTURE
Mank (Netflix)
Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
News of the World (Universal)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Ammonite (Neon)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
West Side Story (20th Century)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix), The Father (Sony Classics), Soul (Disney/Pixar), Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix), On the Rocks (A24/Apple+), Tenet (Warner Bros.), Stillwater (Focus), Next Goal Wins (Searchlight), Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus), United States vs Billie Holliday (Paramount)
The images for Mank are visually impressive and David Fincher looks like he is on track to have a great year.
If Nomadland is a Top 6 Best Picture contender, Chloe Zhao will be nominated for Best Director
I am still slightly hesitant of placing Sorkin so high in my director predictions as he is best-known for being a screenwriter, but ‘Chicago 7’ looks like it will be a top 3 Best Picture contender.
Both Greengrass and Villeneuve will undoubtedly fill their respective films with impressive technical flourishes and those are the kind of details that Oscar voters love in this category.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher – Mank
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin – Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Greengrass – News of the World
Denis Villeneuve – Dune
Could Jump In: Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Christopher Nolan – Tenet, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ron Howard – Hillbilly Elegy, Regina King – One Night in Miami
People have already seen both Lindo and Hopkins’ performances and both have been praised as some of the best of their respective careers.
All three of the previous winners in this category all played famous historical or fictional people. And while Herman J. Mankiewicz (Oldman) and Fred Hampton (Kaluuya) do not have the same level of name-recognition that The Joker (Phoenix), Freddie Mercury (Malek), and Winston Churchill (Oldman again) have, they still have great chances to win. Oldman is always dependable and is the lead in the film with the most prestige. Kaluuya looked like he was firing on all cylinders in his film’s trailer and rises as a prime contender.
BEST ACTOR
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman – Mank
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Tom Hanks – News of the World
Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Benedict Cumberbatch – The Courier
Viola Davis is always a contender and as she is playing a historical figure, Ma Rainey the “Mother of the Blues”, she has an even greater chance of receiving her second Oscar.
It is very likely that Jennifer Hudson will receive a nomination for her portrayal of Aretha Franklin and, if so, she will likely knock out either Michelle Pfeiffer or Amy Adams. I am keeping Pfeiffer as she is a Hollywood veteran that has never received an Oscar nomination and I am keeping Adams for now as she has 5 nominations without a win and this year may be her chance to finally get some Oscar gold.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Kate Winslet – Ammonite
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Audra Day – United States vs. Billie Holiday, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman – The Father
First of all, R.I.P. Chadwick Boseman, who was not only an amazing actor, but also an inspiration to millions of people for his humility and kindness. His story is one of perseverance and it is truly uplifting. Rest in Power.
The images released for Mank did not include Tom Burke at all and that might be just because they want to unveil his transformation into Orson Welles at a later date but it may also be because he does not have very large of a role.
Someone from the Chicago 7 will get nominated and we are probably going to need a trailer (which will probably come out at the end of September at the latest) to see who has the lead and major supporting roles in this film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
David Strathairn – Nomadland
Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah
Tom Burke – Mank
Could Jump In: Jeremy Strong – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance – Mank, Steven Yeun – Minari, Richard E. Grant – Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
I’ve said this before but if Glenn Close gives a great performance in Hillbilly Elegy she is essentially guaranteed this Oscar. She did not win in 2017 because nobody really saw The Wife but Hillbilly Elegy looks to be a Best Picture nomination contender, which already places Close’s chances higher than they were in 2017.
Ronan also has a great chance but if, theoretically, both Ronan and Close end up giving equally great and recognized performances, Close will win based on the fact that she is much overdue for an Oscar.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Olivia Colman – The Father
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Could Jump In: Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Mary G. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater, Gabby Hoffman – C’mon C’mon, Leslie Manville – Let Him Go, Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Ammonite
Da 5 Bloods
Soul
Could Jump In: On the Rocks, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, C’mon C’mon, Tenet, Stillwater, Promising Young Woman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Hillbilly Elegy
I’m thinking of ending things
Could Jump In: Dune, West Side Story, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Next Goal Wins, The Father, Those Who Wish Me Dead, French Exit
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Over the Moon
Onward
Aya and the Witch
Where is Anne Frank?
Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, The Croods 2, Wolfwalkers, Connected, Trolls: World Tour
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Dune
West Side Story
Tenet
Mulan
Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods, Ammonite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mank
Dune
Tenet
West Side Story
Nomadland
Could Jump In: Ammonite, Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, I’m thinking of ending things
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Ammonite
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
West Side Story
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Jump In: Mulan, Eternals, Respect, Louis Wain, Emma
BEST FILM EDITING
Mank
Dune
Tenet
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Could Jump In: Nomadland, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, West Side Story
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mank
Dune
Respect
West Side Story
Mulan
Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Eternals, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Louis Wain
BEST SOUND
Dune
Tenet
West Side Story
Eternals
Soul
Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Da 5 Bloods, Black Widow
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Tenet
Eternals
Wonder Woman 1984
The One and Only Woman
Could Jump In: Black Widow, No Time to Die, Greyhound, Sonic the Hedgehog, The Invisible Man
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune
Mank
Tenet
Soul
Da 5 Bloods
Could Jump In: Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Over the Moon, The Secret Garden
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Soul
The One and Only Ivan
The Prom
Over the Moon
Could Jump In: Mulan, Miss Americana, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie, All Together Now, The Outpost