21 Dec Late December Oscar Predictions
The critics’ awards have just started up and while they likely will not influence the Oscars as much as they have done in the past (because this year’s ceremony is in April and that is pretty far off from the critics’ awards which happen mostly in January), they still provide an indication of what films the critics will be pushing this Oscar season. This year, Nomadland (which was expected) and First Cow (less expected, but still expected) have performed very well at these early critics’ awards. Da 5 Bloods has also benefited greatly from these awards and I feel more confident about having the Spike Lee feature in my Best Picture lineup. Mank, however, has not gotten the success expected for it in these awards and while it definitely will get a Best Picture nominations its chances of winning are sliding slowly.
Since most of these critics’ awards are only considering movies that came out in the 2020 calendar year, films that will likely release in 2021 like Judas and the Black Messiah are not eligible. However, I think that if ‘Judas’ is as good as I hope it will be and receives at least an 86 Metascore once it releases it has a great shot at winning Best Picture. That’s because, as it is right now, there are no films that feel like true frontrunners. No film so far has hit the timely and conventionally entertaining combination a film needs to have to win Best Picture. I think ‘Judas’ could have that combination but I’m going to stay cautious on it until it releases.
But, if nothing changes it will be between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 as they both have critics’ support (Nomadland much more than ‘Trial’, but still), timeliness or relevance, and accessibility to wide audiences.
I am going to be talking a lot about the critics’ awards that are happening all around the country throughout the post, however I think it is important to mention that they have a diminished influence on the final outcome due to the Oscars being moved later in the year. So they are less relevant and while they still will likely provide an indication of where the Oscars will go I think it is important to exercise caution when using them to create your predictions. Also, only four significant critics’ bodies have released their winners at the time of this post so there are more than a dozen more to go and therefore the people who have won so far may not be a great indication of who the critics’ bodies are going to align towards when all is said and done.
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
One Night in Miami
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Da 5 Bloods
News of the World
Could Jump In: Soul, Promising Young Woman, First Cow, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, Pieces of a Woman, The Mauritanian, Tenet, Sound of Metal, The Prom, Another Round
Chloe Zhao seems like the clear frontrunner at this point. However, even though Mank has not received as much love as most thought it would, Fincher still has that overdue narrative going as he has never won an Oscar in his storied and prolific career. Still, Zhao has received the most acclaim this year by far so I think she has the best shot at winning this.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
David Fincher – Mank
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Regina King – One Night in Miami
George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Jump In: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Kelly Reichardt – First Cow, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Kornel Mondruzco – Pieces of a Woman
Chadwick Boseman seems like a lock to win this category even though we are four months away from the ceremony. His performance is being lauded throughout the industry as spectacular and nobody else in this category is getting nearly the amount of recognition as he is so I don’t really see something happening here unless something changes drastically on the road to the Oscars.
I also think Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman are pretty much cemented for nominations as they all are getting notices from critics (especially Lindo, who has won Best Actor at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and Hopkins who has won Best Actor at the Boston Film Critics Circle Awards). At this stage, the fifth spot is, in my mind, between Steven Yeun for Minari and Riz Ahmed for the Sound of Metal. Since Minari is a film that I think will get a Best Picture nomination I think Yeun will get in but do not count out Ahmed as he delivers a powerful turn in Sound of Metal.
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman – Mank
Steven Yeun – Minari
Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, George Clooney – The Midnight Sky, Colin Firth – Supernova
Viola Davis is one of the best actors of her generation and that power is really expressed in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom where, according to the critics’ consensus, she gives one of her career-best performances. Frances McDormand also has been getting a lot of positive attention for her performance in Nomadland and while I don’t see her winning this I think that she should not be counted out.
Of the four significant critics’ groups that have released their winners so far, Sidney Flanigan has won two of them. What this shows is that critics are trying to make sure that Academy voters do not forget Never Rarely Sometimes Always and its lead actress. Promising Young Woman’s wins in Best Actress and Best Screenplay at Los Angeles also continue that trend of critics reminding Academy voters of films that were talked about pre-COVID.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Could Jump In: Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks
This race is by far the most wide-open of the acting races. I don’t feel as confident about any of these men getting a nomination as I do about the frontrunners in most other categories. I feel like this category is very subject to change, but I do think that if Judas and the Black Messiah ends up as good as I hope it will be and becomes a contender for a Best Picture win, Kaluuya might win this category for his portrayal of Fred Hampton.
The four critics’ awards have gone to three different people here: Chadwick Boseman for Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci has won two for Sound of Metal, and Glynn Turman won one today for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Of these three, I think that Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom will be the bigger Best Picture player so I think that Turman will receive his first Oscar nomination for his performance this year. However, don’t be surprised if Boseman becomes a double nominee or if Raci breaks into the top five.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray – On the Rocks
Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Jump In: Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods, Paul Raci – Sound of Metal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Even though Mank is falling off a little bit, Amanda Seyfried is staying strong. Her performance has continued to be talked about and while she has not won a critics’ group award yet she was the runner-up at both Boston and Los Angeles which is good for a performer from a more mainstream film like Mank.
Minari’s Yuh-Jung Youn and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm’s Maria Bakalova have split the critics’ awards so far, but I am hesitant to add Bakalova to the top five due to the Academy’s long-standing bias over comedic acting. However, the quality of her performance became national news due to its victim so she might be in the top five by next month.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Olivia Colman – The Father
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari
Could Jump In: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Swankie – Nomadland, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Ariana DeBose – The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7 is an Aaron Sorkin film and as it is also a big Best Picture player I think it is virtually locked for a nomination. Mank also seems like a lock here and the screenplay being from David Fincher’s late father, Jack Fincher, can only help its chances.
Promising Young Woman and Never Rarely Sometimes Always have both one screenplay award a piece but I think that Promising Young Woman is more likely to get a nomination due to its scathing social commentary.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Minari
Soul
Promising Young Woman
Could Jump In: Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Palm Springs, On the Rocks, The Forty Year-Old Version, Sound of Metal
While Nomadland isn’t really a “talky” film there are many profound nuggets of wisdom found throughout the screenplay and that could push it through. The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami are all based on plays so they may be more appealing in this category as voters love the powerful monologues seen throughout theater-based films.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
News of the World
Could Jump In: First Cow, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, The White Tiger, The Mauritanian, The Prom
Even though Wolfwalkers has one most of the critics’ awards, Soul is very critically-acclaimed and is an original Pixar movie so it’s hard to see this going to Wolfwalkers.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Over the Moon
Earwig and the Witch
Onward
Could Jump In: The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Rumble
This award often rewards nostalgia like it did last year when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won here. Mank’s impeccable recreation of 1930’s Hollywood is going to appeal to that nostalgia and the film seems like an early lock in this race.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Mulan
One Night in Miami
Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Emma, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Tenet
Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami, Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Emma
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Mulan
Could Jump In: News of the World, One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The World to Come
BEST FILM EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
The Prom
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Birds of Prey
Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Emma
BEST SOUND
Tenet
Sound of Metal
Mank
Soul
The Midnight Sky
Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, News of the World, The Outpost, The Invisible Man, Wonder Woman 1984
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
Wonder Woman 1984
Mulan
Sonic the Hedgehog
Could Jump In: The Invisible Man, Birds of Prey, Greyhound, Mank, Greenland
I feel like Soul might be the only locked nomination in this category as Soul has been getting love from the critics’ groups (it won at both Los Angeles and Boston Online) and it is rare that an animated film gets recognition in any category from these critics’ groups.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul
Mank
The Midnight Sky
News of the World
Minari
Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Let Them All Talk
Diane Warren has received 11 Oscar nominations without a win and with a relatively weak slate in this category this may be her year to finally win the prize as she wrote a song for The Life Ahead.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Life Ahead
Over the Moon
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Trolls: World Tour
Could Jump In: The Prom, The Outpost, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The One and Only Ivan, Eurovision Song Contest
Another Round did amazing at the European Film Awards and even though it is a slightly unconventional winner here it is from the respected Thomas Vinterberg who has directed the masterpieces Festen and The Hunt. And even though critics have not quite taken to it at the level they have for past winners, (its Metascore is a 79, and while that is pretty good it is a far cry from the past two winners in this category: last year’s Parasite at 96 and 2018’s Roma at 96 as well) I think it is the frontrunner as of now. Still, I think that it needs a little bit more for it to be in the Best Picture nomination conversation like past winners have been.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Another Round
Collective
Night of the Kings
Quo Vadis, Aida?
I’m No Longer Here
Could Jump In: A Sun, The Auschwitz Report, My Little Sister, Charlatan, Notturno, Never Gonna Snow Again
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Totally Under Control
John Lewis: Good Trouble
Crip Camp
Collective
Dick Johnson is Dead
Could Jump In: Boys State, Time, All In: The Fight for Democracy, MLK/FBI, Welcome to Chechnya