15 Nov November Oscar Predictions
The Gotham Award nominations were released on Thursday and every film nominated for Best Feature at the Gothams was directed by a woman. While the Gothams are usually not very predictive of the Oscars, (usually the winner of their Best Feature gets a Best Picture nomination but that’s about it) their picks show that diversity and inclusion may be a theme that the Academy focuses on as well this season.
Mank was finally seen by critics and while I thought it would get slightly better reviews (it currently has an 80 metascore) the people who loved it really loved it and passion is all film needs to do well in Best Picture.
Hillbilly Elegy was also seen for the first time and those reviews were…much worse. The truth is that if this movie was released a decade ago it probably would’ve been a mid-level Best Picture contender and a box-office success with maybe an acting win for Glenn Close. However, much has changed since then and while many if not most members of the Academy will like Hillbilly Elegy, the people who likely would have supported in the past will probably get cold feet due to the reviews. It is interesting how this year two prominent films, Nomadland and Hillbilly Elegy, center on the lives of poorer white people yet tackle their subjects in very different ways. Nomadland is a lot more natural and grounded film, while Hillbilly Elegy is a traditional cliched Hollywood melodrama. This contrast will likely hurt Hillbilly Elegy.
Even though I know there is a good chance that Judas and the Black Messiah and The United States vs. Billie Holliday will not be released this year, I will keep them in their places as they will likely do well if they are released.
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Mank (Netflix)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
The Father (Sony Classics)
News of the World (Universal)
Minari (A24)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Could Jump In: Soul, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Hillbilly Elegy, On the Rocks, The Prom, Promising Young Woman, Tenet, The Midnight Sky, The White Tiger, Ammonite
Like I mentioned before, the Gothams focused on female directors with their nominations and since I now strongly think that Mank will not win Best Picture as movies in the last few years usually have to tackle an “issue” to win Best Picture, I believe that Chloe Zhao should win this category. Zhao would be a great winner and would be the third Asian to win Best Director in the last ten years (Ang Lee and Bong Joon-Ho were the other two).
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
David Fincher – Mank
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Greengrass – News of the World
Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Florian Zeller – The Father, Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Chadwick Boseman was nominated for a Gotham award on Thursday which was a great sign that he will be recognized for his work throughout this awards season. I am not sure whether Daniel Kaluuya or Lakeith Stanfield will be submitted as the lead for Judas and the Black Messiah so I am going to keep him on the outside looking in. The top four here (Boseman, Hopkins, Lindo, and Oldman) seem pretty solid to me and either one of these men, I think, has a good chance of winning.
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Gary Oldman – Mank
Steven Yeun – Minari
Could Jump In: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry
The backlash to Hillbilly Elegy will likely continue here. Amy Adams was already just barely on in the top 5 here in my last predictions so the response to her movie pushes her down a few slots. This gives an opportunity for someone like Sophia Loren to jump in.
While Pieces of a Woman is probably too different and niche to be a major Best Picture player, I could see it getting one or two acting nominations but nothing more. Kirby’s performance is getting spectacular reviews and if she was in a more “accessible” movie to Oscar voters she might have won this category.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday
Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead
Could Jump In: Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Meryl Streep – The Prom
Sacha Baron Cohen had a great October as two of his films, The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, got greatest notices. The amazing year he is having will likely lead him getting a nomination for one of his films since Borat is (sadly) not a very Oscar-friendly movie.
Leslie Odom Jr. is also having a great year as Hamilton was a hit when it was released on Disney Plus and he is getting outstanding reviews for his performance as the great Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. I could definitely see him winning this but all the categories are very much up-in-the-air.
Even though I don’t really see Supernova being a top-level Best Picture player, Stanley Tucci likely will transcend that and get a nomination for what critics are calling one of the film veteran’s best performances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Stanley Tucci – Supernova
Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7
While Hillbilly Elegy is getting mostly negative reviews, I feel that its actors could still emerge with nominations. Still, neither Amy Adams nor Glenn Close will likely get wins as their performances, which would have probably been lauded as early as ten years ago, have been deemed as “caricatures” by more than a few critics.
Colman, Seyfried, and Close are the three frontrunners and many also have Ellen Burstyn in the mix as well. However, Pieces of a Woman is a very brutal film and likely will be divisive among Oscar voters so I don’t see it getting nominated in two categories.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Youn yuh-Jung – Minari
Helena Zengel – News of the World
Could Jump In: Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite, Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Swankie – Nomadland
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Minari
Soul
Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, On the Rocks
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
One Night in Miami
Nomadland
The Father
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, The United States of Billie Holliday, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, First Cow
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Over the Moon
Onward
Earwig and the Witch
Could Jump In: Lupin III: The First, The Willoughbys, A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Connected
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Emma.
One Night in Miami
Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ammonite
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Mank
Nomadland
Tenet
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, Minari, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Emma.
Mulan
Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Ammonite, The Prom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, News of the World
BEST EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Nomadland
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Could Jump In: The Father, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Minari, The Midnight Sky
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Birds of Prey
Mank
The United States vs. Billie Holliday
Could Jump In: Coming 2 America, Mulan, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The Prom
BEST SOUND
Tenet
Mank
The Midnight Sky
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, The Invisible Man, Greyhound, Nomadland
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
Greyhound
Sonic the Hedgehog
Mulan
Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Invisible Man, Call of the Wild, The One and Only Ivan
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Mank
Soul
Minari
The Midnight Sky
Tenet
Could Jump In: The Trial of the Chicago 7, Da 5 Bloods, News of the World, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Life Ahead
Over the Moon
One Night in Miami
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Jump In: All In: The Fight for Democracy, The One and Only Ivan, Trolls: World Tour, Onward, Giving Voice
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Totally Under Control
Crip Camp
Boys State
John Lewis: Good Trouble
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Could Jump In: Dick Johnson is Dead, Welcome to Chechnya, Time, The Dissident, The Truffle Hunters