Early October Predictions | Awards Insights

03 Oct Early October Predictions

Posted at 14:04h in All Predictions, Oscar, Predictions by Arman Saxena

Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.

These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.

While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.

The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.

BEST PICTURE

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Mank (Netflix)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

News of the World (Universal)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

The Father (Sony Classics)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

Soul (Disney/Pixar)

Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry

Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.

Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

David Fincher – Mank

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Regina King – One Night in Miami

Paul Greengrass – News of the World

Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks

This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.

BEST ACTOR

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Gary Oldman – Mank

Tom Hanks – News of the World

Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater

Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.

I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

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