Early October Predictions | Awards Insights
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Early October Predictions

Early October Predictions

Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.

These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.

 

While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.

The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.

BEST PICTURE

One Night in Miami (Amazon)

Nomadland (Searchlight)

Mank (Netflix)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

News of the World (Universal)

Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)

Dune (Warner Bros.)

The Father (Sony Classics)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

Soul (Disney/Pixar)

Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry

 

Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.

Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.

BEST DIRECTOR

Chloe Zhao – Nomadland

David Fincher – Mank

Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Regina King – One Night in Miami

Paul Greengrass – News of the World

Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks

 

This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.

BEST ACTOR

Anthony Hopkins – The Father

Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

Gary Oldman – Mank

Tom Hanks – News of the World

Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater

 

Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand – Nomadland

Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit

Kate Winslet – Ammonite

Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things

 

Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.

I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

David Strathairn – Nomadland

Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami

Could Jump In: Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Steven Yeun – Minari, Charles Dance – Mank

 

It feels like déjà vu doesn’t it? Glenn Close and Olivia Colman are again the frontrunners in a category after Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Close to win Best Actress in 2019. Unlike that year, Close’s film Hillbilly Elegy is a larger contender than The Wife ever was and, as a result, Close will be even more of a contender this year if her performance is of the same pedigree.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman – The Father

Amanda Seyfried – Mank

Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite

Audra McDonald – Respect

Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Youn yuh-Jung – Minari, Swankie – Nomadland, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

Soul

Minari

Judas and the Black Messiah

Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite, Respect, Palm Springs

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

One Night in Miami

Nomadland

The Father

News of the World

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, The United States vs Billie Holliday, French Exit, First Cow, Next Goal Wins

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Soul

Over the Moon

Wolfwalkers

Onward

The Croods: A New Age

Could Jump In: Connected, The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, Lupin III: The First, Rumble

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mank

Dune

Mulan

News of the World

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Respect, One Night in Miami

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nomadland

Mank

Dune

News of the World

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, No Time to Die, Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Mank

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

The Personal History of David Copperfield

Dune

Ammonite

Could Jump In: Mulan, Coming 2 America, Death on the Nile, Emma, One Night in Miami

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Birds of Prey

Dune

Respect

Mank

The United States vs Billie Holliday

Could Jump In: Mulan, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ammonite, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7

 

BEST EDITING

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Mank

Nomadland

Dune

News of the World

Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

 

BEST SOUND

Tenet

Dune

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Sound of Metal

Soul

Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, The Invisible Man

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Dune

Tenet

Greyhound

Mulan

Sonic the Hedgehog

Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Call of the Wild, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Soul

Dune

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Da 5 Bloods

News of the World

Could Jump In: Mank, Over the Moon, Ammonite, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, One Night in Miami

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

No Time to Die

Over the Moon

The One and Only Ivan

One Night in Miami

Giving Voice

Could Jump In: Miss Americana, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, Trolls: World Tour