03 Oct Early October Predictions
Since the last time I posted a set of predictions so much has happened. I have already talked about Nomadland winning the Golden Lion and the TIFF People’s Choice Award, and the enormous buzz surrounding One Night in Miami, but I have not talked about the great reviews The Trial of the Chicago 7 is getting or how West Side Story has moved from this year to winter 2021.
These developments and more factor in greatly to the race and I will elaborate on them as I go on.
While Nomadland has received the best reviews out of every contender so far (it has a 98 Metascore), I think One Night in Miami will win as it will likely be appealing to the older members of the Academy (it is a “talky” film that centers around major historical figures) and the younger members as it is timely and relevant to the current moment. If enough people love One Night in Miami it will definitely win as it seems like it will have a very broad appeal.
The top 4 (even though Mank still has not been seen) essentially feel locked for Best Picture nominations.
BEST PICTURE
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Nomadland (Searchlight)
Mank (Netflix)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
News of the World (Universal)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Soul (Disney/Pixar)
Could Jump In: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ammonite, Hillbilly Elegy, United States vs. Billie Holliday, On the Rocks, Respect, Tenet, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Stillwater, Cherry
Even though Fincher is overdue, Mank has to receive at least an 86 metascore for him to win Best Director. Essentially, his film has to garner universal acclaim and while that is likely, details about the film are still very uncertain as we have not even gotten a trailer yet.
Watch out for Shaka King in this category (and Judas and the Black Messiah in general) as the film’s trailer was amazing and if executed well the film seems like it will have just the right mixture of timeliness and entertainment value to do well at the Oscars.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
David Fincher – Mank
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Paul Greengrass – News of the World
Could Jump In: Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Denis Villeneuve – Dune, George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Francis Lee – Ammonite, Florian Zeller – The Father, Sofia Coppola – On the Rocks
This category has been pretty stable compared to others but this month I have Hopkins topping Lindo as The Father is having a great run on the festival circuit and I am starting to think that Da 5 Bloods may be slightly forgotten by the time ballots are filled since it was released in June and the Oscars are in April.
BEST ACTOR
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Gary Oldman – Mank
Tom Hanks – News of the World
Could Jump In: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal, Steven Yeun – Minari, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami, Tom Holland – Cherry, Ben Affleck – The Way Back, Eddie Redmayne – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Matt Damon – Stillwater
Vanessa Kirby shot up these rankings as her performance in Pieces of a Woman received absolutely stellar notices at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals (she won the Volpi Cup for Best Actress at Venice). However, I am not sure if her high placement will hold as Pieces of a Woman does not seem like it will be a major contender in any non-acting category.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Michelle Pfeiffer – French Exit
Kate Winslet – Ammonite
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Could Jump In: Jennifer Hudson – Respect, Andra Day – United States vs Billie Holliday, Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman, Rashida Jones – On the Rocks, Jessie Buckley – I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Even though critics have not seen it yet, Chadwick Boseman’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has generated a lot of positive talk and Boseman may receive his first Oscar nomination.
I am still not sure if Sacha Baron Cohen or Eddie Redmayne is the lead in the Trial of the Chicago 7, but either way Cohen will probably get a nod for his work as Abbie Hoffman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
David Strathairn – Nomadland
Yahya Abdul-Mateen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Could Jump In: Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Frank Langella – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Steven Yeun – Minari, Charles Dance – Mank
It feels like déjà vu doesn’t it? Glenn Close and Olivia Colman are again the frontrunners in a category after Olivia Colman pulled off a stunning upset over Close to win Best Actress in 2019. Unlike that year, Close’s film Hillbilly Elegy is a larger contender than The Wife ever was and, as a result, Close will be even more of a contender this year if her performance is of the same pedigree.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman – The Father
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
Audra McDonald – Respect
Could Jump In: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman, Youn yuh-Jung – Minari, Swankie – Nomadland, Meryl Streep – The Prom, Mary J. Blige – Respect, Abigail Breslin – Stillwater
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Soul
Minari
Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Da 5 Bloods, On the Rocks, Promising Young Woman, Ammonite, Respect, Palm Springs
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
One Night in Miami
Nomadland
The Father
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Could Jump In: Hillbilly Elegy, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Dune, The United States vs Billie Holliday, French Exit, First Cow, Next Goal Wins
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Over the Moon
Wolfwalkers
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
Could Jump In: Connected, The Willoughbys, Trolls: World Tour, Lupin III: The First, Rumble
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
Dune
Mulan
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, Ammonite, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Respect, One Night in Miami
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nomadland
Mank
Dune
News of the World
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, No Time to Die, Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mank
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Dune
Ammonite
Could Jump In: Mulan, Coming 2 America, Death on the Nile, Emma, One Night in Miami
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Birds of Prey
Dune
Respect
Mank
The United States vs Billie Holliday
Could Jump In: Mulan, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Ammonite, News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Nomadland
Dune
News of the World
Could Jump In: One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST SOUND
Tenet
Dune
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Sound of Metal
Soul
Could Jump In: News of the World, No Time to Die, Da 5 Bloods, Respect, The Invisible Man
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Tenet
Greyhound
Mulan
Sonic the Hedgehog
Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Birds of Prey, The Call of the Wild, No Time to Die, The One and Only Ivan
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul
Dune
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Da 5 Bloods
News of the World
Could Jump In: Mank, Over the Moon, Ammonite, The United States vs. Billie Holliday, One Night in Miami
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Over the Moon
The One and Only Ivan
One Night in Miami
Giving Voice
Could Jump In: Miss Americana, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Soul, Trolls: World Tour