23 Jan January Oscar Predictions
We’re at the stage in the game where we essentially know what films will be considered. In my view, there are 13 films that have a good chance to get a Best Picture nomination, the ten I put in my predictions and News of the World, Soul, and Sound of Metal. 6 of these films (Nomadland, ‘Trial’, Mank, ‘Ma Rainey’, Minari, and ‘One Night’) I think are essentially locked in for a nomination while the rest will probably shuffle around until nomination morning on March 15th.
I was thinking of leaving out Da 5 Bloods from my nominations this month, but the film has continued to stay relevant in the race due to the enormous attention it has received from the critics’ awards in a variety of categories. It seems this film, even though it was released in June, will be remembered come Oscar nomination morning.
At this point in the race, I think there are only 3 films that can win Best Picture Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and Judas and the Black Messiah. The first two have been widely-seen and are generally well-liked by both the critics and public. However, Judas and the Black Messiah has not been seen by the general public but early word is very good and if this movie makes a big impact with critics then this film will shoot up on this list.
This is the first time I have Promising Young Woman in the top 10 and I think it will stay there since due to this category’s use of the preferential ballot, films with a passionate following benefit, which is something this film has in spades.
I’m keeping The Father and News of the World as they are films that will likely appeal to the “old guard” of the Academy but at the same I don’t see as much passion behind them and something like Da 5 Bloods, Soul, or Sound of Metal could easily take up one of their slots.
BEST PICTURE
Nomadland (Searchlight)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Minari (A24)
Mank (Netflix)
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
One Night in Miami (Amazon)
Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.)
The Father (Sony Classics)
Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Promising Young Woman (Focus)
Could Jump In: News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, The United States vs Billie Holliday, Malcolm and Marie, On the Rocks, The Prom, Cherry
Chloe Zhao does not look like she can lose this at this point in the race. Something may change but Zhao is the director of a top 3 Best Picture contender and has won essentially all of the critics’ awards so far for Best Director.
To me, Zhao, Fincher, and Sorkin are all but assured a nomination with the bottom two slots being more of a question mark.
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
David Fincher – Mank
Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Regina King – One Night in Miami
Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
Could Jump In: George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods, Shaka King – Judas and the Black Messiah, Florian Zeller – The Father
Like Zhao in director, there doesn’t seem to be a way that Boseman loses this. His performance has been getting plaudits from everywhere and while he is not far and away the leader in critics’ awards he has won at the ones that are more predictive of success at the Oscars.
I had trouble leaving Yeun out of the top five and if Mank continues to receive a mostly tepid reception from the public and critics’ groups, Oldman might drop out. Ahmed, Boseman, and Lindo are the actors receiving the most attention from the critics’ groups and while I didn’t have Ahmed in here last month his performance (and his film for that matter) is gaining notices.
BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
Gary Oldman – Mank
Could Jump In: Steven Yeun – Minari, Lakeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah, Tom Hanks – News of the World, John David Washington – Malcolm and Marie, Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
Carey Mulligan is slowly but surely rising up the ranks as her performance continues to get more and more recognition. She and McDormand are getting most of the attention in this category from critics’ groups, but don’t underestimate Davis who would become only the second-ever Black woman to win in this category (Halle Berry won for Monster’s Ball in 2002).
Zendaya is coming off a surprise Emmy win and her performance in Malcolm and Marie is being praised as one of the best of the year by the critics that have seen the film. That Emmy momentum could propel Zendaya in to the top five but she would likely replace either Kirby or Day.
BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holliday
Could Jump In: Zendaya – Malcolm and Marie, Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead, Kate Winslet – Ammonite, Meryl Streep – The Prom
Daniel Kaluuya is getting raves from the few reviews of Judas and the Black Messiah that are out there and I don’t really see him not being a nominee. Odom Jr. and Baron Cohen are definitely his Kaluuya’s main competition in this category and either of these actors playing historical figures could win.
Paul Raci has (by far) won the most critics’ awards in this category and that catapults him into the top five this month. I don’t see him winning because his film is not a frontrunner but it’s definitely a possibility.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
Could Jump In: Bill Murray – On the Rocks, Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Stanley Tucci – Supernova, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, David Strathairn – Nomadland
I don’t see anybody outside of my top six listed here getting nominated in this category. However, choosing that one actress that will get left out is difficult. But I’m going to go with Close since her film was widely panned.
Maria Bakalova and Youn Yuh-Jung have won most of the critics’ awards in this category but they both have things working against them. Bakalova’s performance was in a comedy and as purely comedic performances hardly ever get nominated, Bakalova has to work through that barrier.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amanda Seyfried – Mank
Olivia Colman – The Father
Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman
Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Youn Yuh-Jung – Minari
Could Jump In: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy, Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian, Helena Zengel – News of the World, Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Minari
Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Jump In: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Soul, Da 5 Bloods, Palm Springs, Sound of Metal
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
First Cow
Could Jump In: News of the World, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, Pieces of a Woman, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Onward
Over the Moon
Earwig and the Witch
Could Jump In: A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, The Croods: A New Age, Lupin III: The First, Trolls: World Tour, Demon Slayer
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mank
News of the World
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Mulan
Could Jump In: The Midnight Sky, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, The Prom, Tenet
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
Judas and the Black Messiah
Could Jump In: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Da 5 Bloods, The Midnight Sky
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Emma
Mulan
The United States vs Billie Holiday
Could Jump In: The Personal History of David Copperfield, News of the World, The Prom, Ammonite, The Trial of the Chicago 7
BEST FILM EDITING
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland
Mank
News of the World
One Night in Miami
Could Jump In: Tenet, Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, Da 5 Bloods
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Hillbilly Elegy
Mank
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The United States vs Billie Holiday
Could Jump In: Bill and Ted Face the Music, The Prom, Birds of Prey, Emma., Mulan
BEST SOUND
Sound of Metal
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Mank
Soul
Could Jump In: News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Prom, The Invisible Man
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Tenet
The Midnight Sky
Greyhound
The Invisible Man
Mulan
Could Jump In: Wonder Woman 1984, Mank, Sonic the Hedgehog, Birds of Prey, The One and Only Ivan
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Soul
Mank
News of the World
Minari
The Midnight Sky
Could Jump In: Tenet, Da 5 Bloods, The Little Things, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
One Night in Miami
The Life Ahead
Over the Moon
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Could Jump In: The Prom, Trolls: World Tour, Miss Americana, The Outpost, The One and Only Ivan
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Dick Johnson is Dead
Crip Camp
All In: The Fight For Democracy
Time
Totally Under Control
Could Jump In: Boys State, Collective, The Truffle Hunters, Welcome to Chechnya, John Lewis: Good Trouble, The Way I See It, MLK/FBI
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Another Round
Night of the Kings
I’m No Longer Here
Collective
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Could Jump In: A Sun, Charlatan, Two of Us, Dear Comrades!, The Auschwitz Report