25 Jan Oscar News: AFI Releases its Top 10 Films and TV Shows of the Year
Today, the American Film Institute released its picks for the 10 best films and television shows of the past year and as this organization’s picks are some of the most predictive when it comes to the Oscar Best Picture field, they are worth an analysis.
The picks are as follows:
AFI MOVIES OF THE YEAR
- DA 5 BLOODS
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
- MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
- MANK
- MINARI
- NOMADLAND
- ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
- SOUL
- SOUND OF METAL
- THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
AFI TELEVISION PROGRAMS OF THE YEAR
- BETTER CALL SAUL
- BRIDGERTON
- THE CROWN
- THE GOOD LORD BIRD
- LOVECRAFT COUNTRY
- THE MANDALORIAN
- MRS. AMERICA
- THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT
- TED LASSO
- UNORTHODOX
AFI SPECIAL AWARD
- HAMILTON
Interesting inclusions this year include Sound of Metal, Soul, Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods, and One Night in Miami as everything else was essentially guaranteed to be included. All the films nominated here definitely receive a boost in their standing in the Best Picture race.
In past years, AFI has one of the best track records when it comes to predicting the Oscar nomination slate.
- 2020 – 8 of the 9 Oscar nominees received a nod from the AFI (Missed: Ford v Ferrari)
- 2019 – 6 of 8 (Missed: Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody)
- 2018 – 7 of 9 (Missed: Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)
- 2017: 7 of 9 (Missed: Lion and Hidden Figures)
- 2016: 6 of 8 (Missed: The Revenant and Brooklyn)
(Note: The AFI Top 10 can only include American films but in 2020 and 2019, Parasite and Roma, respectively, won AFI Special Awards)
In the last five years, the eventual Best Picture winner has always been an AFI pick and there hasn’t been a year where more than two of the eventual Best Picture nominees did not hit AFI before.
Obviously, we are living in exceptional circumstances and it is important to mention that AFI picks are not usually as far away timewise from the Oscars as they are this year. That said, these are pretty compelling statistics and I would be remiss if I hadn’t mentioned them.
Now I am going to analyze each film that did not make the AFI cut but received either a Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, BAFTA, or National Board of Review nod on their way to becoming a Best Picture nominee.
- Ford v Ferrari – Nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards and by the National Board of Review
- Vice – Nominated at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice
- Bohemian Rhapsody – Nominated at Golden Globes (won as well) and SAG
- Phantom Thread – Nominated by National Board of Review
- Darkest Hour – Nominated at BAFTA and at Critics Choice
- Lion – Nominated at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice
- Hidden Figures – Nominated at SAG (won as well) and picked by the NBR.
- The Revenant – Nominated by Golden Globes (won as well), BAFTAs (won as well), and the Critics Choice Awards.
- Brooklyn – Nominated at the Critics Choice Awards
What these statistics show me that if a film that gets snubbed by the AFI want to receive a Best Picture nomination, they have to be picked by the Critics Choice Awards and if they don’t do that they have to win at either the Golden Globes, SAG, or BAFTA. Only Phantom Thread breaks this so the National Board of Review picks should be paid attention to as well.
Critics Choice Film Awards nominations are on Feb. 8
The National Board of Review reveals its picks tomorrow, Jan. 26
Golden Globe nominations will come out Feb. 3
SAG nominations will be released Feb. 4
Lastly, BAFTA’s selections will come out Mar. 9