2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions | Awards Insights
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2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

The Best Picture field will expand to 10 next year instead of the sliding scale that we’ve seen since 2009 and that benefits films that would have otherwise just missed out on a nomination in Picture (think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami from this past season and The Two Popes from the year before). As a result of this expansion and the Academy’s increased openness to international cinema in recent years, I believe that at least one international film will break into the lineup. It’s also apparent that for an international director to get in to the field, they must already be acclaimed in some way – either with a film that has received major critical acclaim in the United States or with a film that has won the Best International Film Oscar. Asghar Farhadi has achieved both milestones as his A Separation is one of the most acclaimed films of the 2010s and won the Foreign-Language Film Oscar. His 2016 effort The Salesman also won in this category as well. His next film A Hero which will be premiering at Cannes in July should already be seen as a major frontrunner due to the Academy’s affinity with his work. Paolo Sorrentino’s new film The Hand of God should also be in contention as his 2013 film The Great Beauty is considered by many to be a masterpiece and won best Foreign Language Film. Also watch out for Decision to Leave from Oldboy director Park Chan-Wook and Madres Paralelas from Talk to Her and Pain and Glory director Pedro Almodovar.

Theaters are slowly moving back to normal this year and that means that we can probably expect 1-2 bonafide studio blockbusters in the slate this year. Dune, Eternals, or even West Side Story could be the films that achieve the juggling act of being both highly critically-acclaimed and popular among general audiences. Speaking of West Side Story, this year sees the return of major musicals as In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Annette, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, Encanto, and Vivo are all set to be released this year. Of this group, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, and West Side Story seem like the ones with the best chance at breaking into the top 10. However, In the Heights underperformance at the box office definitely hurts its chances. If Tick, Tick…Boom ends up being critically-acclaimed, I could easily see it taking West Side Story’s place as this year’s musical nominee.

There are also films from major auteurs and Oscar favorites this year. Films from Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Adam McKay, Denzel Washington, Aaron Sorkin, Chloe Zhao, David O. Russell, Edgar Wright, Darren Aronofsky, Clint Eastwood, Taika Waititi, Leos Carax, Pablo Larrain, and Paul Schrader are all set to come out this year and that is extremely exciting for me both as a Oscar prognosticator and as a movie fan.

With that, here are my predictions for this month.


Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – December 3rd

House of Gucci (MGM) – November 24th

The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

Soggy Bottom (MGM) – November 26th

The French Dispatch (Searchlight) – October 22nd

Dune (Warner Bros.) – October 1st

The Last Duel (20th Century) – October 15th

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) – 2021 (TBD)

West Side Story (20th Century) – December 10th

A Hero (Amazon) – July 2021 (Cannes)

Could Jump In:

Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

The Hand of God (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

A Journal for Jordan (Sony) – December 10th

Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – TBD

In the Heights (Warner Bros.) – June 11th

CODA (Apple+) – August 13th

Eternals (Disney/Marvel) – November 5th

Blue Bayou (Focus) – September 17th

Canterbury Glass (20th Century) – TBD

The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.) – September 24th

Last Night in Soho (Focus) – October 22nd

The Card Counter (Focus) – September 10th

Tick, Tick…Boom (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

Respect (MGM) – August 13th

The Whale (A24) – TBD

Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) – TBD

Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) – October 22nd

Blonde (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

Spencer (Neon) – 2021 (TBD)

Mass (Bleecker Street) – 2021 (TBD)

Passing (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon) – 2021 (TBD)

Decision to Leave – TBD

Belfast (Focus) – November 12th

The Humans (A24) – 2021 (TBD)

Annette (Amazon) – July 7th (Cannes)

C’mon C’mon (A24) – TBD


As I mentioned previously there are many major filmmakers coming through with films this year and many, including all-time greats like Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, and Ridley Scott, are completely Oscarless. While that easily could be something that is rectified this year, I have a feeling that Jane Campion (who previously won Adapted Screenplay for The Piano) will become the second-ever female Best Director winner.


Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

Ridley Scott – The Last Duel or House of Gucci

Could Jump In: Denis Villeneuve – Dune, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Jon M. Chu – In The Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Sian Heder – CODA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave


The amount of biopic performances here is crazy (Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, and Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe to name a few) and I think that either a fictional character performance is going to end up surpassing all the biopic performances or one biopic performance is going to be from a top 4 Best Picture contender and end up prevailing. This category is also very deep and I think that the top 16 contenders I have listed all have a good chance of hitting the top 5.


Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Could Jump In: Ana de Armas – Blonde, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Halle Berry – Bruised, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Melanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball


While I could easily see Washington winning his thirs acting Oscar as Macbeth, Cumberbatch is playing a very menacing and unnerving character in The Power of the Dog and if the film becomes a top 4 Best Picture contender, he seems like he could definitely prevail. Like Best Actress, this category seems to be stacked as well and I think that the top 12 contenders I have listed here all have a great chance of receiving a nomination.


Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Adam Driver – House of Gucci

Will Smith – King Richard

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God


I have two actresses from Sundance indies in my predictions here and while that is unlikely to actually end up happening, both Negga and Dowd have generated lots of buzz for their respective performances. It remains to be seen if that buzz will be diminished by Oscar voting time. Jodie Comer has generated a lot of goodwill for her work on Killing Eve and that buzz could catapult her into an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win. Medieval-set movies don’t usually have very meaty roles for women but as Nicole Holofcener is credited as a writer (in addition to, of course, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck), I think Comer could have a lot to do.


Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley

Ruth Negga – Passing

Ann Dowd – Mass

Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho

Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Olga Merediz – In the Heights, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Judi Dench – Belfast, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Regina King – The Harder They Fall, Zoe Saldana – Canterbury Glass, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans


Bradley Cooper is going to win an Oscar in the next 10 years as he’s been nominated for eight in the previous ten years. This year he has two performances in films from Guillermo del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson in contention and I think his performance in the latter film could leave an impression if it is more than a glorified cameo. I am particularly curious about how John David Washington’s performance will end up performing as Canterbury Glass seems like a movie that will be catered to the tastes of the Academy yet due to the controversy surrounding director David O. Russell, the amount of nominations it will receive will most likely be limited. I have been very conservative about its chances in my predictions, but it could very well end up like Bohemian Rhapsody which did not receive a Director nomination (its director Bryan Singer had quite a few sexual assault allegations) but received both a Picture and acting noms. If Canterbury Glass wades through the cloud surrounding Russell and makes it into Picture, it most likely will also receive acting nominations for any of Bale, Robbie, Washington, or Saldana, a cinematography nomination, and a nomination in Score.


Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom

Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley

Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog

Adam Driver – The Last Duel

Al Pacino – House of Gucci

Could Jump In: Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter, Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Delroy Lindo – The Harder They Fall, John David Washington – Canterbury Glass, Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Willem Dafoe – Nightmare Alley, Bill Murray – The French Dispatch, Colman Domingo – Zola, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Richard Jenkins – The Humans



Soggy Bottom

The French Dispatch

Don’t Look Up

Being the Ricardos

A Hero

Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The Card Counter, The Whale, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God, CODA, Mass, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, C’mon C’mon



The Power of the Dog

House of Gucci

Nightmare Alley

The Last Duel

A Journal for Jordan

Could Jump In: Dune, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Passing, Next Goal Wins, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, West Side Story, Dear Evan Hansen






Apollo 10 1/2

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo, The Boss Baby 2, Peter Rabbit 2, Sing 2



Nightmare Alley

House of Gucci

The French Dispatch


Being the Ricardos

Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Cruella, West Side Story, Dune, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, Blonde, Canterbury Glass




The French Dispatch

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Canterbury Glass, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, House of Gucci, Annette, Blonde, Blue Bayou, The Hand of God



Being the Ricardos

House of Gucci



The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Blonde, Cyrano, The Suicide Squad, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Whale




Don’t Look Up

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

Last Night in Soho

Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, The Power of the Dog, Soggy Bottom, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth, A Journal for Jordan, The Card Counter, Cry Macho



Nightmare Alley


The French Dispatch

West Side Story

House of Gucci

Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, Cruella, In the Heights, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Last Night in Soho, The Power of the Dog, Being the Ricardos, Canterbury Glass



The Power of the Dog


Nightmare Alley

The French Dispatch

Don’t Look Up

Could Jump In: Canterbury Glass, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Spencer, Annette, Luca, No Time to Die, Zola



No Time to Die


Top Gun: Maverick



Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Don’t Look Up, Defying Gravity, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cyrano, Vivo




West Side Story

Don’t Look Up


A Quiet Place Part II

Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, Nightmare Alley, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The Last Duel, The French Dispatch





The Suicide Squad

Spider-Man: No Way Home

The Matrix 4

Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, The Green Knight, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Jungle Cruise, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, No Time to Die, Top Gun: Maverick