2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

17 Jun 2022 Oscars: June Oscar Predictions

Posted at 18:13h in All Posts, All Predictions, Oscar, Predictions by Arman Saxena

The Best Picture field will expand to 10 next year instead of the sliding scale that we’ve seen since 2009 and that benefits films that would have otherwise just missed out on a nomination in Picture (think Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami from this past season and The Two Popes from the year before). As a result of this expansion and the Academy’s increased openness to international cinema in recent years, I believe that at least one international film will break into the lineup. It’s also apparent that for an international director to get in to the field, they must already be acclaimed in some way – either with a film that has received major critical acclaim in the United States or with a film that has won the Best International Film Oscar. Asghar Farhadi has achieved both milestones as his A Separation is one of the most acclaimed films of the 2010s and won the Foreign-Language Film Oscar. His 2016 effort The Salesman also won in this category as well. His next film A Hero which will be premiering at Cannes in July should already be seen as a major frontrunner due to the Academy’s affinity with his work. Paolo Sorrentino’s new film The Hand of God should also be in contention as his 2013 film The Great Beauty is considered by many to be a masterpiece and won best Foreign Language Film. Also watch out for Decision to Leave from Oldboy director Park Chan-Wook and Madres Paralelas from Talk to Her and Pain and Glory director Pedro Almodovar.

Theaters are slowly moving back to normal this year and that means that we can probably expect 1-2 bonafide studio blockbusters in the slate this year. Dune, Eternals, or even West Side Story could be the films that achieve the juggling act of being both highly critically-acclaimed and popular among general audiences. Speaking of West Side Story, this year sees the return of major musicals as In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, Annette, Cyrano, Dear Evan Hansen, Encanto, and Vivo are all set to be released this year. Of this group, In the Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, and West Side Story seem like the ones with the best chance at breaking into the top 10. However, In the Heights underperformance at the box office definitely hurts its chances. If Tick, Tick…Boom ends up being critically-acclaimed, I could easily see it taking West Side Story’s place as this year’s musical nominee.

There are also films from major auteurs and Oscar favorites this year. Films from Guillermo del Toro, Ridley Scott, Jane Campion, Paul Thomas Anderson, Wes Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, Joel Coen, Steven Spielberg, Adam McKay, Denzel Washington, Aaron Sorkin, Chloe Zhao, David O. Russell, Edgar Wright, Darren Aronofsky, Clint Eastwood, Taika Waititi, Leos Carax, Pablo Larrain, and Paul Schrader are all set to come out this year and that is extremely exciting for me both as a Oscar prognosticator and as a movie fan.

With that, here are my predictions for this month.

BEST PICTURE

Nightmare Alley (Searchlight) – December 3rd

House of Gucci (MGM) – November 24th

The Power of the Dog (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

Soggy Bottom (MGM) – November 26th

The French Dispatch (Searchlight) – October 22nd

Dune (Warner Bros.) – October 1st

The Last Duel (20^th Century) – October 15th

The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple/A24) – 2021 (TBD)

West Side Story (20^th Century) – December 10th

A Hero (Amazon) – July 2021 (Cannes)

Could Jump In:

Don’t Look Up (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

The Hand of God (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

A Journal for Jordan (Sony) – December 10^th

Being the Ricardos (Amazon) – TBD

In the Heights (Warner Bros.) – June 11th

CODA (Apple+) – August 13th

Eternals (Disney/Marvel) – November 5th

Blue Bayou (Focus) – September 17th

Canterbury Glass (20^th Century) – TBD

The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.) – September 24th

Last Night in Soho (Focus) – October 22nd

The Card Counter (Focus) – September 10^th

Tick, Tick…Boom (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

Respect (MGM) – August 13th

The Whale (A24) – TBD

Next Goal Wins (Searchlight) – TBD

Cry Macho (Warner Bros.) – October 22nd

Blonde (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

Spencer (Neon) – 2021 (TBD)

Mass (Bleecker Street) – 2021 (TBD)

Passing (Netflix) – 2021 (TBD)

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon) – 2021 (TBD)

Decision to Leave – TBD

Belfast (Focus) – November 12^th

The Humans (A24) – 2021 (TBD)

Annette (Amazon) – July 7^th (Cannes)

C’mon C’mon (A24) – TBD

As I mentioned previously there are many major filmmakers coming through with films this year and many, including all-time greats like Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, Asghar Farhadi, and Ridley Scott, are completely Oscarless. While that easily could be something that is rectified this year, I have a feeling that Jane Campion (who previously won Adapted Screenplay for The Piano) will become the second-ever female Best Director winner.

BEST DIRECTOR

Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley

Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch

Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom

Ridley Scott – The Last Duel or House of Gucci

Could Jump In: Denis Villeneuve – Dune, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Jon M. Chu – In The Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Sian Heder – CODA, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Park Chan-Wook – Decision to Leave

The amount of biopic performances here is crazy (Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball, and Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe to name a few) and I think that either a fictional character performance is going to end up surpassing all the biopic performances or one biopic performance is going to be from a top 4 Best Picture contender and end up prevailing. This category is also very deep and I think that the top 16 contenders I have listed all have a good chance of hitting the top 5.

BEST ACTRESS

Lady Gaga – House of Gucci

Jennifer Hudson – Respect

Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos

Could Jump In: Ana de Armas – Blonde, Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Halle Berry – Bruised, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Melanie Laurent – The Mad Woman’s Ball

While I could easily see Washington winning his thirs acting Oscar as Macbeth, Cumberbatch is playing a very menacing and unnerving character in The Power of the Dog and if the film becomes a top 4 Best Picture contender, he seems like he could definitely prevail. Like Best Actress, this category seems to be stacked as well and I think that the top 12 contenders I have listed here all have a great chance of receiving a nomination.

BEST ACTOR

Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Adam Driver – House of Gucci

Will Smith – King Richard

Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley

Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Adam Driver – Annette, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Matt Damon – Stillwater, Justin Chon – Blue Bayou, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God

I have two actresses from Sundance indies in my predictions here and while that is unlikely to actually end up happening, both Negga and Dowd have generated lots of buzz for their respective performances. It remains to be seen if that buzz will be diminished by Oscar voting time. Jodie Comer has generated a lot of goodwill for her work on Killing Eve and that buzz could catapult her into an Oscar nomination and maybe even a win. Medieval-set movies don’t usually have very meaty roles for women but as Nicole Holofcener is credited as a writer (in addition to, of course, Matt Damon and Ben Affleck), I think Comer could have a lot to do.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

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