30 Jul 2022 Oscars: Late July Oscar Predictions
The New York Film Festival has released their Opening Night and Centerpiece films. These films usually have a decent track record at the Oscars as 3 of the last 5 Centerpiece picks went on to becoming Best Picture nominees. This year The Power of the Dog is the pick and as that film has also been confirmed for both Venice and Toronto as well, I think it probably has the best chance for a Best Picture nomination out of any other film this year so far. It and Nightmare Alley seem like the only films that could be declared locks at this point. The New York Film Festival’s Opening Night pick has reached the Best Picture slate twice in the last five years and while that might not seem like a great track record, two of their picks (13th and Lovers Rock) were ineligible for a BP nomination. The Tragedy of Macbeth is this year’s Opening Night film and if it is well-received I think it could very well be a lock.
Both The French Dispatch and A Hero went to Cannes and both received good-to-great reviews from critics. I would feel more confident about their chances if they had received universal acclaim but I still think that they can get in if they are campaigned well. If A Hero is campaigned well I think it is a film that will play well with both critics and audiences and I might even be more confident in its chances than I am for The French Dispatch. The French Dispatch is an anthology film and, as a result, reviews have said that it does not have the same emotional resonance of Wes Anderson’s other work. However, I think the technical aspects of the film will garner enough passion and will probably help it carve out spot in the Best Picture slate. Searchlight is also probably the best studio when it comes to campaigning their films for Oscar attention and I have confidence in them and in Anderson’s good will in the industry.
Anyway, here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Soggy Bottom (MGM)
House of Gucci (MGM)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)
A Hero (Amazon)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
Could Jump In:
Last Night in Soho (Focus)
Being the Ricardos (Amazon, might be 2022)
The Hand of God (Netflix)
The Last Duel (20th Century)
Tick, Tick…Boom! (Netflix)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)
A Journal for Jordan (Sony)
Belfast (Focus)
In the Heights (Warner Bros.)
The Humans (A24)
CODA (Apple+)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
The Worst Person in the World (Neon)
The Card Counter (Focus)
Eternals (Disney/Marvel)
Flee (Neon)
Respect (MGM)
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (Amazon)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
King Richard (Warner Bros.)
Blue Bayou (Focus)
Red Rocket (A24)
Passing (Netflix)
Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)
Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)
Cyrano (MGM)
Mass (Bleecker Street)
Spencer (Neon)
The Green Knight (A24)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Denis Villenueve – Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Asghar Farhadi – A Hero
Could Jump In: Ridley Scott – House of Gucci, Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Joachim Trier – The Worst Person in the World, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, Sian Heder – CODA
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Adam Driver – House of Gucci
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: Will Smith – King Richard, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – Annette, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Antonio Banderas – Official Competition
BEST ACTRESS
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Could Jump In: Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (if it comes out this year, she’s in), Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Emilia Jones – CODA, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Haley Bennett – Cyrano, Tilda Swinton – Memoria, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – The Humans
Jesse Plemmons – The Power of the Dog
Al Pacino – House of Gucci
Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Bradley Whiford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Alessandro Nivola – The Many Saints of Newark, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)
Ruth Negga – Passing
Ann Dowd – Mass
Judi Dench – Belfast
Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Audra McDonald – Respect, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou, Rooney Mara – Nightmare AlleyMartha Plimpton – Mass, Claire Foy – The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Olga Merediz – In the Heights
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
A Hero
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: The Whale, CODA, Red Rocket, The Card Counter, Mass, Spencer, The Worst Person in the World, King Richard
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The Tragedy of Macbeth
A Journal for Jordan
Could Jump In: Dune, The Humans, The Last Duel, West Side Story, Tick, Tick…Boom, Cry Macho, Dear Evan Hansen, Zola
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee
Luca
Encanto
Apollo 10 1/2
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Belle
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Dune
Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Power of the Dog, Belfast
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, Belfast, House of Gucci
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The French Dispatch
Cyrano
Cruella
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, West Side Story, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Belfast
BEST EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
The French Dispatch
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, No Time to Die, The Power of the Dog, The tragedy of Macbeth
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
House of Gucci
Dune
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Cyrano
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, The French Dispatch, The Suicide Squad, Eternals, West Side Story
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix 4
Could Jump In: Godzilla vs Kong, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die
BEST SOUND
Dune
West Side Story
Don’t Look Up
Eternals
A Quiet Place Part II
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, In The Heights, Tick, Tick…Boom, A Journal for Jordan, No Time to Die
BEST SCORE
The Power of the Dog
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, Eternals, Luca, Spencer, No Time to Die
BEST SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Top Gun: Maverick
Annette
Respect
Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up