31 Aug 2022 Oscars: Late August Oscar Predictions
Film festival season is just about to start up. Venice starts on September 1st, Telluride on the 2nd, Toronto on the 9th, and New York on the 24th. The majority of the eventual Best Picture nominees will most likely be screened this month and once we get around to October we’ll have an exponentially clearer idea of what the race will look like. However, we do know a few things. For one, The Power of the Dog is going to every one of those festivals, strongly expressing the confidence Netflix has in the film. While I don’t think the film will end up winning Picture (it probably will get close though), Campion’s film is the film that I am most confident will receive a nomination. I could see any other film here not getting nominated come 2022.
In other news, the trailer for The Hand of God released and I instantly added it to my predictions as it looks fantastic. If it performs well at the Venice Film Festival and/or wins an award there, I will probably have it as a top 6 contender. The trailer for Spencer was also released and Kristen Stewart dispelled a lot of people’s doubts about her being able to play Princess Diana. In Actress, there are two extremely baity biopic performances: Stewart at Princess Diana and Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball. If any one of these actresses’ respective films receive at least a 75 Metascore, that film’s central performance will probably end up winning Best Actress.
Also I just wanted to address Belfast. Branagh hasn’t made many films that are good. Of the last eight films that he has directed, only one had a Green Metascore (Cinderella at 67) and two of them were in the red (Artemis Fowl at 31 and Love Labour’s Lost at 35). That doesn’t mean to say that a director that hasn’t received great reviews in almost 30 years can’t deliver a great film, it just means that I am extremely skeptical about the Oscar chances of that director’s projects. Yes, it’s going to be in Black and White, Yes, Branagh himself wrote the screenplay and the film is semi-autobiographical, and most importantly, Yes, Focus seems to have some confidence in it, but until reviews are released I am going to conclude that the film will end up being another Hillbilly Elegy.
Ok, now that we’re done with that, here are the predictions:
BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
House of Gucci (MGM)
Soggy Bottom (MGM)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Hand of God (Netflix)
The French Dispatch (Searchlight)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (A24/Apple+)
Could Jump In:
Being the Ricardos (Amazon)
Belfast (Focus)
The Last Duel (20th Century)
Spencer (NEON)
A Hero (Amazon)
Parallel Mothers (Sony Classics)
Last Night in Soho (Focus)
Tick, tick…Boom! (Netflix)
The Lost Daughter (Netflix)
The Humans (A24)
C’mon C’mon (A24)
Cry Macho (Warner Bros.)
CODA (Apple+)
Eternals (Disney/Marvel)
The Many Saints of Newark (Warner Bros.)
In the Heights (Warner Bros.)
The Worst Person in the World (NEON)
The Harder They Fall (Netflix)
Mass (Bleecker Street)
Finch (Apple+)
Swan Song (Apple+)
Passing (Netflix)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Searchlight)
Dear Evan Hansen (Universal)
Red Rocket (A24)
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Denis Villenueve – Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Paolo Sorrentino – The Hand of God
Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Ridley Scott – House of Gucci or The Last Duel, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Pedro Almodovar – Parallel Mothers, Kenneth Branagh – Belfast, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Pablo Larrain – Spencer
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Will Smith – King Richard
Could Jump In: Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Adam Driver – House of Gucci, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Steven Yeun – The Humans, Timothee Chalamet – Dune, Adam Driver – Annette, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Caleb Landry Jones – Nitram, Nicolas Cage – Pig
BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Halle Berry – Bruised Emilia Jones – CODA, Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Sandra Bullock – The Unforgivable
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga – Passing
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Judi Dench – Belfast
Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans
Could Jump In: Ann Dowd – Mass, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night in Soho, Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley, Marlee Matlin – CODA, Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter, Caitrona Balfe – Belfast
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley (or The Humans)
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Jonah Hill – Don’t Look Up, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom, Toni Servillo – The Hand of God, Andrew Garfield – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
The French Dispatch
The Hand of God
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Belfast, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, A Hero, Mass, Spencer
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
House of Gucci
The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Humans
Could Jump In: CODA, Dune, The Last Duel, The Lost Daughter, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, West Side Story
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Flee
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs the Machines
Belle
Could Jump In: Raya and the Last Dragon, Where is Anne Frank, Apollo 10 ½, Ron’s Gone Wrong, Vivo
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
West Side Story
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley
Dune
Being the Ricardos
Could Jump In: Cyrano, The Tragedy of Macbeth, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, Spencer, Passing, The Power of the Dog
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Could Jump In: Belfast, The Hand of God, The French Dispatch, Soggy Bottom, Last Night in Soho, Eternals, Cyrano
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Being the Ricardos
Spencer
Cyrano
House of Gucci
Respect
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Cruella, Last Night in Soho, Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Belfast, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
BEST EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Could Jump In: Soggy Bottom, Being the Ricardos, The Last Duel, House of Gucci, No Time to Die, The French Dispatch, Belfast
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Cyrano
Cruella
The Suicide Squad
Could Jump In: Spencer, Respect, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Belfast, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Last Night in Soho
BEST SOUND
Dune
Eternals
West Side Story
Top Gun: Maverick
No Time to Die
Could Jump In: Tick, Tick…Boom, In the Heights, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Cyrano, A Quiet Place Part II
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Godzilla vs Kong
The Suicide Squad
Could Jump In: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Don’t Look Up
Could Jump In: Spencer, Luca, Eternals, The Tragedy of Macbeth, No Time to Die
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Top Gun: Maverick
Annette
Respect
Could Jump In: Dear Evan Hansen, Defying Gravity, Don’t Look Up
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Hand of God
A Hero
Parallel Mothers
The Worst Person in the World
Flee
Could Jump In: The Mad Women’s Ball, Compartment No. 6, Petrov’s Flu, Petite Maman, Drive My Car