13 May First Oscar Predictions 2022 (May)
Oscar season is a never-ending cycle. When one season ends the other one springs up to fill the void. In that spirit, these are my first Oscar predictions for this year.
Go here for information about the casts, plots, studios, release dates, etc. of many of the Oscar contenders I list in my predictions.
Before starting, I just wanted to say that for all the categories, the first film listed is what I predict to win in that category. This applies for every category except for Best Picture since I don’t think Nightmare Alley will be winning the award, I just think it has the best chance of getting nominated for BP. If the film that wins one of the 3 main awards at TIFF in September also tackles social issues in some ways, that will most likely be my pick for Best Picture. At this point in time however, I have no clue as to what could win.
Well, without further ado, here are the predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Nightmare Alley (Searchlight)
House of Gucci (MGM)
Soggy Bottom (MGM)
West Side Story (20th Century)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Apple+/A24)
The Power of the Dog (Netflix)
Dune (Warner Bros.)
Coda (Apple+)
A Hero (Amazon)
Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM) (if not released The French Dispatch takes this spot)
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Respect, In the Heights, Eternals, The Many Saints of Newark, A Journal for Jordan, Being the Ricardos, Tick, Tick…Boom, The Harder They Fall, Don’t Look Up, The Last Duel, Last Night in Soho, The Northman, The Whale, Next Goal Wins, Don’t Worry Darling, The Card Counter, Cry Macho, Passing, The Hand of God
Longer Shots: King Richard, Blue Bayou, Spencer, Belfast, The Green Knight, Stillwater, Mothering Sunday, Decision to Leave, Mass, Cyrano, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain, Blonde, Annette
BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Ridley Scott – House of Gucci
Paul Thomas Anderson – Soggy Bottom
Denis Villenueve – Dune
Could Jump In: Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch, Steven Spielberg – West Side Story, Joel Coen – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington – A Journal for Jordan, Asghar Farhadi – A Hero, George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Sian Heder – CODA, Adam McKay – Don’t Look Up, Jon M. Chu – In the Heights, Chloe Zhao – Eternals, Aaron Sorkin – Being the Ricardos, Robert Eggers – The Northman, Lin-Manuel Miranda – Tick, Tick…Boom, Edgar Wright – Last Night in Soho, Ridley Scott – The Last Duel, Darren Aronofsky – The Whale, Rebecca Hall – Passing, Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling, Paul Schrader – The Card Counter, David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Smith – King Richard
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Adam Driver – House of Gucci
Could Jump In: Michael B. Jordan – A Journal for Jordan, Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up, Peter Dinklage – Cyrano, Brendan Fraser – The Whale, Anthony Ramos – In the Heights, Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom, Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon, Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass, Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter, Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins, Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos, Mahershala Ali – Swan Song, Jason Isaacs – Mass, Alexander Skarsgard – The Northman, Clifton Collins Jr. – Jockey, Matt Damon – Stillwater/The Last Duel
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: Ana De Armas – Blonde, Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos, Martha Plimpton – Mass, Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass, Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go supporting), Rachel Zegler – West Side Story, Tessa Thompson – Passing, Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up/Red, White, and Water, Halle Berry – Bruised, Glenn Close – Sunset Boulevard, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling, Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing, Emilia Jones – CODA, Marion Cotillard – Annette, Amanda Seyfried – A Mouthful of Air, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Bradley Whitford – Tick, Tick…Boom
Idris Elba – The Harder They Fall
Could Jump In: Corey Hawkins – The Tragedy of Macbeth, Willem Dafoe – The Card Counter/The Northman, Al Pacino – House of Gucci, Adam Driver – The Last Duel, JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos, Colman Domingo – Zola, David Alvarez – West Side Story, Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom, Mark Rylance – Don’t Look Up, Troy Kotsur – CODA, Benicio del Toro – The French Dispatch, Jared Leto – House of Gucci, Timothee Chalamet – The French Dispatch, Jack Farthing – Spencer
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley (could go lead)
Ruth Negga – Passing
Olga Merediz – In the Heights
Marlee Matlin – CODA
Ann Dowd – Mass
Could Jump In: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story, Toni Colette – Nightmare Alley, Glenn Close – Swan Song, Jodie Comer – The Last Duel, Samantha Morton – The Whale, Anya Taylor-Joy – The Northman/Canterbury Glass/Last Night in Soho, Nina Arianda – Being the Ricardos, Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up, Sally Hawkins – Spencer, Vanessa Hudgens – Tick, Tick…Boom, Thomasin McKenzie – The Power of the Dog, Jayne Houdyshell – The Humans, Rita Moreno – West Side Story, Julianne Moore – Dear Evan Hansen, Alicia Vikander – Blue Bayou
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Soggy Bottom
Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
A Hero
Could Jump In: CODA, Blue Bayou, Mass, Don’t Worry Darling, Last Night in Soho, The Whale, Canterbury Glass, C’mon C’mon
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
House of Gucci
The Power of the Dog
Nightmare Alley
A Journal for Jordan
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: West Side Story, Zola, Next Goal Wins, The Last Duel, Cyrano, The Humans, Dune
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Apollo 10 1/2
Flee
Could Jump In: Where is Anne Frank?, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Cryptozoo, Vivo
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley
Dune
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
Being the Ricardos
Could Jump In: West Side Story, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, In the Heights, The Last Duel, Don’t Worry Darling, Belfast
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Could Jump In: House of Gucci, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Passing, Three Thousand Years of Longing
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
House of Gucci
Cyrano
West Side Story
Don’t Worry Darling
Dune
Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, The French Dispatch, Spencer, Nightmare Alley, Soggy Bottom, Blonde, The Last Duel
BEST FILM EDITING
Dune
Don’t Look Up
House of Gucci
West Side Story
Last Night in Soho
Could Jump In: Being the Ricardos, Soggy Bottom, Eternals, Nightmare Alley, The French Dispatch, Canterbury Glass, The Power of the Dog
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Cyrano
Being the Ricardos
House of Gucci
Could Jump In: The French Dispatch, Last Night in Soho, Dune, Old, Blonde, Nightmare Alley, The Whale
BEST SOUND
Dune
Eternals
Top Gun: Maverick
West Side Story
A Quiet Place: Part II
Could Jump In: In the Heights, No Time to Die, Tick, Tick…Boom, Respect, Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, Spider-Man: No Way Home
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Eternals
The Suicide Squad
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix 4
Could Jump In: BIOS, The Tomorrow War, Black Widow, Shang Chi: The Legend of the Ten Rings, Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, A Quiet Place: Part II
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood
Dune – Hans Zimmer
Nightmare Alley – Alexandre Desplat
The French Dispatch – Alexandre Desplat
Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Could Jump In: Eternals – Ramin Djawadi, The Tragedy of Macbeth – Carter Burwell, Spencer – Jonny Greenwood, Canterbury Glass – Hildur Guonadottir, Zola – Mica Levi, Luca – Dan Romer, No Time to Die – Hans Zimmer
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
No Time to Die
Encanto
Dear Evan Hansen
Tick, Tick…Boom
Defying Gravity
Could Jump In: Top Gun: Maverick, Cruella, Annette, Cyrano, Vivo, House of Gucci, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie