25 Jan Pre-DGA Oscar Predictions
The Directors Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers, Cinema Audio Society, USC Scripter, and Annie awards will all be announced this weekend.
Now, these are very influential precursors in their respective categories, and could turn the tide (especially DGA) of the race.
Out of these precursors, the Directors Guild of America shares the most membership with the academy and if something like Parasite wins here, that film will pick up a little bit more steam on its road to Best Picture. Still, I predict Sam Mendes for 1917 winning here as his film seems like more of a “directing” film.
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1917
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Marriage Story
Little Women
Ford v Ferrari
Three films, 1917, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, all have good chances of winning Best Picture at the Oscars. 1917 has PGA and Golden Globe, Parasite has SAG (not eligible for the Drama and Comedy Golden Globe categories as it is a foreign film), and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has CCA and Golden Globe. PGA is the most predictive of these precursors, which is why 1917 is the frontrunner. BAFTA should tell us who is not going to win Best Picture (Seriously, they’ve been 0 for 5 the last 5 years, even though they were 6 for 6 the years before that), while DGA and WGA should give us an indication of where the Academy could be leaning.
DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes – 1917
Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Todd Phillips – Joker
This award really comes down to DGA, if Bong Joon-Ho wins there he still has a chance to win Best Director at the Oscars (like Alejandro G. Inarittu for Birdman), but if he does not Sam Mendes will win. Mendes has the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice award (he tied with Bong Joon-Ho at CCA), so he is the frontrunner.
ACTOR
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes
These acting categories are essentially set in stone as all four have won awards at the Golden Globes, CCA, and SAG. However, if BAFTA does something crazy their might be chance for movement.
ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Renee Zellweger is locked here, and I can not see her losing BAFTA
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
Brad Pitt is going to sweep everything and win his first acting Oscar (he won for producing 12 Years a Slave).
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
This will probably be Marriage Story’s only Oscar, and Laura Dern will win her first Oscar.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Marriage Story
1917
Knives Out
I think that Parasite is going to win WGA and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood BAFTA. And if this happens, Parasite winning Best Original Screenplay will probably mean it will win Best Picture as well.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Little Women
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
The Two Popes
This film usually has gone to films that will not win any other awards in other categories. The problem is that Little Women (maybe Costume Design), Jojo Rabbit, and The Irishman all look like that at this point. But since Little Women did win at CCA and has had a groundswell of support at the perfect time, it should win.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Missing Link
Klaus
I Lost My Body
How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Toy Story 4 should win this even though Missing Link did surprise at the Golden Globes. Toy Story 4 did win PGA and CCA, which are better indicators. I think Klaus has more support than I Lost My Body and I believe it has a chance to be the dark horse in this race.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
Parasite
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the CCA for this category and Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh’s recreation of 1969 Los Angeles should be too much to turn down for Oscar voters.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse
I can not see how anybody else other than 1917’s Roger Deakins can win this. Maybe Onc… no Deakins is getting his Oscar.
COSTUME DESIGN
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Little Women could both win this. Production and costume design usually go hand and hand at the Oscars (3 of the last 5 Oscars had the same winner in these categories), but this seems like 2017 when La La Land won Production Design and Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them won Costume Design. “Hollywood” has flashier costumes than La La Land did, but Little Women has the turn of the century period costumes that this branch loves.
FILM EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
Parasite
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman
This branch loves quick cuts and films that you know will be high-adrenaline coming in to the theater. I believe that Ford v Ferrari will win BAFTA and then take this at the Oscars. But if Parasite or Joker wins BAFTA, the film that wins will probably win.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
1917
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Bombshell should win this as it uses makeup well on multiple characters and not just one like Judy and Joker.
SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Ad Astra
1917 or Ford v Ferrari have very high chances of winning the sound categories, which is why I think they will split them. I’m looking at 2017 when Hacksaw Ridge won Sound Mixing, but Arrival won Sound Editing. This year’s war film, 1917, should follow the same pattern and win Sound Mixing while Ford v Ferrari will win Sound Editing.
SOUND EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
1917
Joker
Star Wars: The Rise of the Skywalker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1917
The Lion King could follow The Jungle Book and win with its portrayal of photorealistic animals in a photorealistic environment. Avengers: Endgame or The Irishman could also win this.
ORIGINAL SCORE
Joker
1917
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Marriage Story
Hildur Guonadottir should win her first Oscar on her first nomination for her haunting work on Joker as she has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards. Still, this is Thomas Newman’s fifteenth Oscar nomination, and he has not ever won. Is soaring score for 1917 could give him the win.
ORIGINAL SONG
Rocketman
Harriet
Frozen 2
Breakthrough
Toy Story 4
Rocketman has won the Golden Globe and CCA awards in this category and is showing no signs of stopping.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
Honeyland
For Sama
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
While American Factory is the frontrunner, Honeyland and For Sama pose very realistic threats. I think For Sama actually has a better chance than what most are thinking, but its lack of DGA and CCA nominations is slightly troubling.
ANIMATED SHORT
Hair Love
Kitbull
Sister
Daughter (Dcera)
Memorable
I saw and Kitbull and Hair Love and even though Kitbull is a Pixar product, Kitbull was too simple for me. It was a great short film, but Hair Love had multiple layers and that created a more emotional reaction.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
In the Absence
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Life Overtakes Me
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
A Sister
The Neighbor’s Window
Saria
You can watch the shorts here: