FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions
12 Jan FINAL Oscar Nominations 2020 Predictions
The time has come. After months of speculation the Oscar nominations will be released on Monday.
Here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
The Irishman
1917
Marriage Story
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Ford v Ferrari
Could Jump In: The Two Popes, The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, The Irishman, 1917, Marriage Story, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, and Ford v Ferrari are the films that got both Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild nominations. In the past 4 years, only two films have not received a Best Picture nomination after getting those two notices, The Big Sick and Sicario. The Big Sick was mainly a comedy and the Academy does have a bias against that genre of film. Sicario was an action-thriller and would have probably been nominated if Mad Max: Fury Road, the superior action-thriller, had not been released in the same year.
Little Women received enough support from BAFTA and a PGA nomination showing that it has enough support to get a nomination. Now, Ford v Ferrari is in the 9th spot and I believe it could get realistically switched out with The Two Popes. The Two Popes seems like a film that Oscar voters loved and that could push it into the field. However, Ford v Ferrari got both a Critics Choice nomination and a PGA nomination so its support seems widespread. Also, if The Two Popes were to receive a Best Picture nomination it would be the third Netflix film to do so this year. And streaming-bias is still very much alive among the Hollywood elite so this outcome is unlikely.
BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon-Ho – Parasite
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sam Mendes -1917
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Greta Gerwig – Little Women
Could Jump In: Todd Phillips – Joker, Taika Waititi, Noah Baumbach
Bong Joon-Ho, Quentin Tarantino, Sam Mendes, and Martin Scorsese seem to be guaranteed a spot in this field because of their nominations at most major awards precursor, but there is a chance that one of them (I think Scorsese) might be snubbed.
Little Women has received the support it has needed at the correct time and because of that, Gerwig could deservedly get her second Best Director nomination (Becoming the first woman ever to do that). The Academy has undoubtedly heard the public outcry over the lack of female directors and will hopefully respond by acknowledging this great film and its great director. Todd Phillips seems like the more obvious choice to take the 5th spot in this race, but his lack of a Directors Guild nomination coupled with the Academy likely viewing him as a comedy director (as they did with Peter Farrelly who did not get nominated in Best Director even though his film Green Book eventually won Best Picture) might keep on the sidelines for this race.
BEST ACTOR
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Could Jump In: Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari, Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes, Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name
Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, and Leonardo DiCaprio have all received nominations from BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and the Screen Actors Guild, but while Driver and Phoenix seem very secure, DiCaprio’s lack of success at the Golden Globes makes him very snubbable.
Taron Egerton had the perfect push at the perfect time with his Golden Globe award and BAFTA nomination and seems to be mostly secured in the race. Antonio Banderas, however, has not found the same success at the major awards as he has only a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nomination, but his beautiful performance should be able to carry its weight into this category. There is usually one actor who gets nominated for the SAG award and not the Oscar and that seems to be Christian Bale, who did not get the BAFTA nomination that would have secured his place in the race. The person who did get that BAFTA nom was Jonathan Pryce who could get be a spoiler come Monday.
BEST ACTRESS
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Could Jump In: Lupita Nyong’o – Us, Awkwafina – The Farewell
Renee Zellweger, ScarJo, and Charlize Theron all received BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice award nominations. Erivo and Ronan each missed one of those (Erivo missed BAFTA and Ronan missed SAG) making them vulnerable for their spots to be taken by Nyong’o who has been racking up second-tier precursor awards left and right. But the fact that Nyong’o’s performance is in a horror movie that she will likely be the sole nomination of diminishes her chances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Song Kang-Ho – Parasite
Could Jump In: Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes, Jamie Foxx – Just Mercy
Brad Pitt, Joe Pesci, Al Pacino, and Tom Hanks have all received the Big 4 Oscar precursors (BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globe, and Critics’ Choice), but Tom Hanks has had similar scenarios play out with him failing getting an Oscar nomination (Case in point his performances in Saving Mr. Banks, Captain Phillips, which was an especially egregious omission, and Sully).
Parasite is getting so much love from both film critics and movie buffs alike. Song Kang-Ho should be able to ride that wave of support on his way to a nomination, but if he doesn’t, look for Anthony Hopkins to earn a spot. Hopkins has nabbed three (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, and Golden Globes) of the Big 4 precursors, while Song has 0.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Could Jump In: Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell
Laura Dern and Margot Robbie are the two actresses with the Big 4 precursors in this category and are secure for nominations. Jennifer Lopez didn’t get BAFTA but that was likely a major outlier, so she should be secure as well. Scarlett Johansson and Florence Pugh each received two of the Big 4 precursors, but Zhao Shuzhen could get in for the kind of performance that the Academy loves. If Johansson gets a nomination here and in Best Actress she would be the first actor to get a nomination in two categories since Cate Blanchett at the 2008 Oscars, which would be the Oscars way of saying sorry for not nominating her for anything, ever (even Lost in Translation!).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Parasite
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Knives Out
1917
Could Jump In: Booksmart, The Farewell
Marriage Story and Parasite have received all Big 4 writing precursors (BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and Writers’ Guild of America (WGA)) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood would have most likely hit the WGA if Quentin Tarantino was a member of the Writers’ Guild.
Where it gets confusing is the last two spots, Knives Out, 1917, Booksmart, or The Farewell could take these two spots. Knives Out seems more likely than the others as it is an on-the-bubble Best Picture nomination contender where the script is an enormous part of the film’s appeal (I think Knives Out is great, by the way). Now for the last spot, I decided to choose the film with the best Best Picture chances which was 1917. While 1917 is a war film and that genre of film does not usually get screenplay nominations (see: Dunkirk and Hacksaw Ridge), it got a WGA nomination. Booksmart got both a WGA nomination and a BAFTA nomination so it would probably get an Oscar original screenplay nomination as well if it wasn’t for its lackluster box office performance and lack of presence whatsoever in the Best Picture race. People are pointing to Bridesmaids as a female-fronted comedy that got an original screenplay nomination at the Oscars, but that film had some exposure in the Best Picture conversation (It got both a SAG and PGA nomination), which Booksmart does not. The Farewell could get in as a spoiler, but just doesn’t seem to have enough people talking about it.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
Joker
Could Jump In: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
This is one of the most secure categories at the Oscars this year. However, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood still has a chance to shock.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Toy Story 4
Missing Link
Frozen 2
I Lost My Body
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Could Jump In: Klaus, Abominable
This is pretty much locked, but Klaus or Abominable could replace I Lost My Body or How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Could Jump In: Parasite, Little Women
I could see Jojo Rabbit or Joker dropping out to make way for Parasite. Even though Parasite is set in a contemporary time period, which could be detrimental in this category, a whole village was created for the film.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Irishman
Joker
Ford v Ferrari
Could Jump In: The Lighthouse, Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire
I really want to put The Lighthouse in the top 5, but all of the other films that have done amazing at the cinematography precursors are legitimate Best Picture nomination contenders. I also don’t think the Oscars believe that they have to give The Lighthouse a nomination here. The last two times Best Cinematography was a film’s only Oscar nomination were the films Prisoners and Silence. The former was because Prisoners was shot by the GOAT Roger Deakins and the latter was because Silence was directed by Martin Scorsese and Best Cinematography was the best place to give it a nomination.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women
Rocketman
Dolemite is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Could Jump In: The Irishman, Downtown Abbey
This is a mostly fixed category with The Irishman’s Sandy Powell (3-time Oscar winner) poised for an upset.
BEST EDITING
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Parasite
Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit, 1917
If a movie wants to win Best Picture they have to have a nomination here (unless you are 1917 in which case you don’t have to because 1917 was made to look like it wasn’t edited). Jojo Rabbit could get a nomination instead of Parasite or Joker.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Bombshell
Joker
Rocketman
Judy
Dolemite is My Name
Could Jump In: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Downtown Abbey, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This is the first year that this category is five nominations (it has been three nominations most years) and with that change comes a different kind of uncertainty that we don’t have in any other category. We don’t have a full idea of what this branch likes and doesn’t like.
BEST SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Rocketman
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Could Jump In: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker could jump in pretty easily here and it would have if there weren’t so many movies in the Best Picture conversation in this category.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Could Jump In: Avengers: Endgame, Rocketman
The real question in many of these technical categories is whether The Academy will lean more toward Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker or Avengers: Endgame.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Lion King
Avengers: Endgame
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Irishman
1917
Could Jump In: Alita: Battle Angel, Gemini Man, Terminator: Dark Fate
Like I said before they could knock out either Star Wars or Avengers. Alita has a good chance of taking 1917’s 5th spot.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Could Jump In: Jojo Rabbit
This category also seems pretty much locked with Jojo Rabbit, Us, or Pain and Glory maybe making a move into the fray.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Frozen 2
Rocketman
Harriet
The Lion King
Wild Rose
Could Jump In: Toy Story 4, Breakthrough, Parasite
The first four have all been nominated for a Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe award. Wild Rose seems like it can be that less-known that everybody is looking up on Monday.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
For Sama
American Factory
Apollo 11
Honeyland
One Child Nation
Could Jump In: Maiden, The Biggest Little Farm
I’ve seen that many other pundits have been saying that Apollo 11 could get snubbed like Won’t You Be My Neighbor (last year’s frontrunner) did last year. I’m not predicting that, but I can see it happening.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Parasite
Pain and Glory
Les Miserables
Atlantics
Those Who Remained
Could Jump In: Beanpole, Corpus Christi
Parasite is going to win this and the first three are going to get a nomination. There is usually one Holocaust-related film in the mix, this year Those Who Remained and Corpus Christi are those films. Those Who Remained is a more easily-digestible film (if there is such a Holocaust film) and therefore has a better chance of getting a nomination.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Hair Love
Kitbull
The Physics of Sorrow
Hors Piste
Mind My Mind
Could Jump In: Daughter, Sister, Memorable
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Learning To Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re A Girl)
Fire in Paradise
St. Louis Superman
Stay Close
In the Absence
Could Jump In: Walk Run Cha-Cha, After Maria, Life Overtakes Me, The Nightcrawlers
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Brotherhood
Little Hands
Neighbors’ Window
Refugee
Nefta Football Club
Could Jump In: A Sister, Miller and Son
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